Thursday, April 9, 2026

Partial Ceasefire

 Trying to Keep Up,


  What is hard to find a link for is the report from Military Summary Channel that Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE attacked the Iranian oil refinery on Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf Wednesday, prompting retaliatory strikes from Iran. It is assumed that Israel encouraged and facilitated these attacks, and also assumed that Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE do not want to pay Iranian/Omani tolls to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The Ceasefire Lasted Only A Few Hours - Hungary - It Will Get Very Hot Soon - Military Summary 2026.04.8   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00Yybo4jv6M

  The Israeli state needs expansionist war to maintain a semblance of national political coherence, so it "must" continue to take Lebanese land and attack Lebanese civilian targets, which Iran considers a violation of the agreement with Trumpian representatives, that the ceasefire must be completely regional. 
  Iran has the prerogative to attack Israel by this interpretation, which it has done today following massive Israeli attacks upon 100 civilian apartment buildings in Beirut.

  JD Vance will be lead negotiator in Islamabad, Pakistan Friday, though the Iran-shunned Witkoff and Kushner will also attend in official capacity. It is unclear who will represent Israel and Iran in this, and what the status of other regional states may be. Can an agreement, even an agreement to stop attacks on energy and commerce, be reached?

  How much food and water do the Saudis, Kuwaities and Emirates have for their populations? Qatar and Oman do not seem to want to engage in conflict for reasons of their own national interests.
  Can the US peel itself away from this Mideast conflict it started, the way it is gradually peeling itself away from its roles in the Ukraine War and NATO?

  Jan sent this useful perspective: Only 3 Countries In The World Without A Rothschild Central Bank 
 The Rothschild family is slowly but surely having their Central banks established in every country of this world, giving them incredible amount of wealth and power. In the year of 2000 there were seven countries without a Rothschild owned or controlled Central Bank  https://www.whydontyoutrythis.com/2017/06/the-only-3-countries-in-world-without-rothschild-central-bank.html

  [Oman owns the spit on the other side of the Strait, and will share toll receipts.] Craig Murray,  The Strait Of Hormuz
In international law, Tehran has every right to close the strait of Hormuz to nations with which it is in armed conflict. Two vital points:
1) States who permit attacks on Iran to be launched from their territory can be blocked
2) Iran can block neutral ships from trading with states with which it is in conflict.
​  Plainly UK ships can be blocked under 1). But it is also undeniable that Gulf states have permitted attacks to be launched from their territory. A-10 Warthog attack jets have been routinely used against Iranian ships and were used in the extraordinary operation at the weekend involving special forces on the ground in Iran.​ (If you believe that was a pilot rescue I have a bridge to sell you).
​  Multiple types of helicopter have also been used. The 5th fleet having run away well into the Indian ocean, these short-range aircraft can only be operating out of the Gulf states.
​  HIMARS short-range missiles were also used against Kharg Island – again this has to be from the Gulf states.
​  Iran has the right therefore to close the Strait of Hormuz to ships trading with those Gulf States that are hosting US forces attacking Iran. Which effectively means an almost complete closure of the straits.​   
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2026/04/the-strait-of-hormuz/

First Two Ships Pass Through Strait Of Hormuz Since Ceasefire As Iran Demands Payment In Crypto​   https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/first-two-ships-pass-through-strait-hormuz-ceasefire

​  At least a month of interruption of supplies is beginning in a few places already. “The Everything Meltdown”: Global Supply Chains Are Collapsing And Most People Cannot Even Imagine The Pain That Is Coming   https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/the-everything-meltdown-global-supply-chains-are-collapsing-and-most-people-cannot-even-image-the-pain-that-is-coming/

Shipping companies 'see opportunities' but seek clarity on Strait of Hormuz reopening​   https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/04/08/shipping-companies-see-opportunities-but-seek-clarity-on-strait-of-hormuz-reopening

​  "Art of the Deal" posturing at home: Vance Warns Iranians Ahead Of Pakistan Talks: US "Has All The Cards" & "We Want The Nuclear Fuel"
Vice President Vance (who's been tapped to lead talks) warns Iranians: Trump "has all the cards" and cannot have a nuclear weapon. Follows Pentagon/WH declaring "total victory". Iran says it has upper-hand.
​  US, Iran agree to meet for first direct talks in Islamabad. Situation fragile given that Iran is threatening to hit Israel again over IDF's massive Lebanon airstrikes. Tehran says 3 clauses already violated.
​  Iran meanwhile demands stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. Tehran leaders have asserted 'victory' for Iran, amid positive international reaction to the ceasefire.​..
​..Saudi Arabia's vital East-West oil pipeline carrying crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export has been attacked at a pumping station​.   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-live-hegseth-declares-victory-fragile-iran-ceasefire-hailed-internationally

​  Iran Says Ceasefire Must Include Halt To Israel’s Attacks in Lebanon
Pakistan's prime minister, who mediated the ceasefire deal, said it includes Lebanon, but the US and Israel now say it doesn't​   
https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/08/iranian-media-iran-halting-traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-in-response-to-israels-attacks-on-lebanon/

​  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-04-08
US-Iran 2-week ceasefire agreed — Pakistan PM Sharif brokered the deal. Iran will allow passage through Hormuz under Iranian military supervision with fees charged per vessel. US paused strikes. Talks begin in Islamabad on Friday with Vance leading the US delegation...
..Iran continued missile barrages at Israel AFTER ceasefire — At least five waves of Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel overnight, including impacts in Tel Aviv and Beer Sheva... Iran's principle: "The last missile will be fired by us."​...
..Israel says Lebanon NOT included in ceasefire — Netanyahu's office explicitly excluded Hezbollah and Lebanon from the deal. IDF struck Sidon promenade killing 8, continued airstrikes across southern Lebanon. Iran's foreign ministry said it will not accept a partial ceasefire without Lebanon. This is the detonator for round two...
..The ceasefire's most consequential detail: Iran and Oman will charge fees on all ships transiting the strait...
​..Deutsche Bank called the war "the inception period of the petroyuan"​...
​..GCC response fractured: Oman co-charges tolls alongside Iran; Saudi, UAE, Bahrain say they won't pay
Iraqi protesters stormed the Kuwaiti consulate in Basra after US strikes launched from Kuwaiti territory​...
​..[If he is still alive, not an AI ghost] Netanyahu isolated — "biggest loser from the ceasefire"
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid: "There has never been such a political disaster in our history"
​  Israel was close to running out of air defence — David's Sling interceptor manufactured in early 2026
IDF admits it overestimated damage to Hezbollah, believes Iran can keep firing missiles as long as war continues
​  Democrats intend to impeach Hegseth over war handling. Prediction: Hegseth fired before month end per HealthRanger​   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-04-08

  ​Does today's "Netanyahu" look human or AI? There is a lot of skin smoothness and symmetry of movement and facial expression, not the mild side to side movement differences which humans typically exhibit, as did Netanyahu in the past.  Netanyahu Declares Iran Weaker Than Ever | Full Statement | Israel War Victory & Ceasefire Update   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpLo7mA6FqA

Narrative adjustments: More Iran Truce Optimism: Israel To Open Ceasefire Negotiations With Lebanon After Trump Pressures Netanyahu, Oil Drops   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-warns-action-if-iran-fails-uphold-real-ceasefire-optimism-persists-bombing 

Wednesday: Iran declares 'historic victory' over US, says enemy forced to accept its proposal​   https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/07/766472/iran-declares-historic-victory-enemy-forced-accept-its-proposal

Wednesday: From Dire Straits to Done Deal: Triumphant Trump Re-Opens Hormuz​   https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/from-dire-straits-to-done-deal-triumphant

​  Thursday: Trump Warns Of Action If Iran Fails To Uphold 'Real' Ceasefire, But Optimism Persists As Bombing Largely Subsides  
WH confirms Vice President Vance will lead Kushner-Witkoff delegation in Pakistan, seen as positive in Tehran and Islamabad.
​  Trump warns of more military action if Iran doesn't uphold 'real' ceasefire deal, after disagreement over Lebanon truce status as part of deal.
Despite some last-minute shots in Lebanon by Israel, bombs go largely silent across Gulf and Middle East.
​  Over 250 killed and 1,000+ wounded in Lebanon from Wednesday surprise attack by Israel's military. UAE, Pakistan, and even EU (Kallas) condemn.
Hormuz Strait still effectively controlled by Iran: only a few vessels had passed on Wednesday.​   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-warns-action-if-iran-fails-uphold-real-ceasefire-optimism-persists-bombing

​  Thursday Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-04-09
Ceasefire collapsed in under 12 hours. The US-Iran ceasefire announced late April 7 unraveled by midday April 8. Israel launched its largest strike wave on Lebanon since the war began (100+ targets in 10 minutes), Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz, and airstrikes hit Tehran despite the supposed pause. Both sides declared "total victory"...
..Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Only 4 ships transited on April 8, the fewest in April. Iran demands $2M tolls per tanker, payable in crypto per FT. Oil tankers turned back. Norway refuses to send tankers even under ceasefire terms. Iran told mediators it will not open Hormuz or attend Islamabad talks unless Lebanon included in ceasefire...
..Lebanon struck with unprecedented force. IDF hit 100+ Hezbollah targets in 10 minutes across Lebanon — the largest single strike wave of the warLebanese Health Ministry reported 200+ killed, 800+ wounded, with some reports up to 500 dead. Israeli strikes hit near the Belgian FM's negotiation site. Italy summoned the Israeli ambassador after UNIFIL convoy fired upon...
..UAE exposed as belligerent. A UAE Mirage 2000-9 struck Iran's Lavan oil refinery in the Persian Gulf. Iran retaliated by hitting UAE's Fujairah oil facilities and Kuwait's power/desalination plants. Pentagon's Gen. Caine publicly thanked Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan for fighting "shoulder to shoulder"...
..Massive insider trading flagged. Someone shorted $950M in oil hours before the ceasefire announcement. A $23M S&P call trade was placed hours before the news. $44K in META 0DTE calls turned into $4M in 30 minutes...
​..At least 3 different versions of Iran's 10-point proposal are circulating. Trump initially called the plan a "workable basis", then the White House denied it was the agreed framework...
​..Israel was not consulted on ceasefire terms per WSJ — Netanyahu got a late phone call from Trump
Netanyahu declared Lebanon "not included" in the ceasefire and said Israel is "ready to resume at any moment"
​  US officials told Newsmax: "We haven't conducted strikes against Iran. If anyone is striking Iran, it isn't our military"
Iran's FM Araghchi: US must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel
​  Houthis threatened to escalate if Lebanon attacks don't stop within 24 hours. 
Hezbollah resumed operations​...
​..13M bbl/d of Middle Eastern production offline. Best case 2-3 months to restore. Over 1B barrels of cumulative lost production
Saudi East-West pipeline (7M bbl/d capacity) struck by drone, though damage said to be limited
​  DarioCpx: the pipeline attack with oil still falling is "ultimate undeniable proof the oil futures market is being actively manipulated"
DarioCpx also warned that even if Hormuz reopens, it takes a month for tankers to reach Europe/Asia​...
​..FT confirmed the White House pushed Pakistan into brokering this as "Trump was desperate for an out"
NYT bombshell: Netanyahu sold the war to Trump in a Situation Room presentation with Mossad videos of "future Iranian leaders." CIA called parts 3 and 4 of the pitch "bullshit." Trump said "Sounds good to me" anyway. Vance opposed but deferred
​  Troops are still deploying to the Middle East despite ceasefire — Reuters citing US officials
Silver Santa: "There is no deal, there is no peace, there is no will to stop the war. This is market porn"​...
​..Trump on Truth: "NATO was not there when we needed them"
Hegseth called out allies: "the rest of our so-called allies should take some NOTES"
​  UK's Starmer: not getting drawn into Iran war
Spain's PM Sanchez: "We will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket"​   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-04-09

​Andrew Korybko, Why Might China Have Pressed Iran to Compromise with the US?   https://www.globalresearch.ca/why-might-china-pressed-iran-compromise-us/5921755

  Celia Farber, Sour Grapes: Israel Not Happy With Two Week Ceasefire Between US and Iran, Says It Is Abiding "Reluctantly," But Stresses The Deal "Does Not Include Lebanon."   https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/sour-grapes-israel-not-happy-with

  Celia Farber, Israel Goes Rogue: "Unprecedented" Bombardment Of Lebanon
Watch Neo-MAGA Besservissers Craft New, Brutalist Versions Of "Kiss Our Asses," While Mocking Americans Who Balk At Civilian Bombings For Greater Israel, Which They're Sneaking In Behind Oct. 7​   https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/israel-goes-rogue-unprecedented-bombardment

US, Israel Insist Iran Ceasefire Doesn't Apply In Lebanon, Which Suffers Huge Airstrikes​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/beirut-suffers-biggest-bombardment-war-israel-insists-iran-ceasefire-doesnt-apply

​  Iran To Allow No More Than 15 Vessels Per Day Through Hormuz: Russian Media
"Iran's approval system for ships granted safe passage - after vetting by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps - remains unchanged despite US President Donald Trump’s demand for the strait to be reopened."
  "Last week was the busiest week since the start of the war with 72 passages, still 90% below normal volumes, Lloyd’s said," the AP report continues. "Most of the vessels allowed through are connected to Iran, although some Indian vessels have gotten through with diplomatic intervention by the Indian government."
​  There are currently few indicators revealing Iran's intent for what comes next, and it could be that much gets determined on whether Israel will cease its attacks on Lebanon.​   
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/iran-allow-no-more-15-vessels-day-through-hormuz-russian-media

​  Escape Key, Stranded In Haifa
For a century, every plan to move Middle Eastern energy to Europe has ended at the same place: Haifa.
​  The route has never changed.

What has changed is the scale, the layers of control built on top of it, and the number of alternatives that had to be removed before it became the only option​...
​..The vulnerability that killed the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline was its dependence on one supplier and one political relationship. When the Shah fell, the oil stopped flowing and the infrastructure became stranded.​ 
The current iteration — IMEC — appears to have been designed to eliminate that vulnerability.
​  Rather than depending on a single supplier, the corridor connects multiple Gulf producers: the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and potentially Oman. Rather than depending on a bilateral political relationship, it operates through multilateral agreements and institutional frameworks. Rather than depending on a single commodity, it carries energy, goods, data, and money simultaneously.
​  And rather than depending on political goodwill for compliance, it embeds conditions into the infrastructure itself through programmable standards, digital settlement layers, and regulatory frameworks that operate automatically.
​  The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, reopened the route. Within weeks, the Israeli state-owned Europe Asia Pipeline Company and the UAE-based MED-RED Land Bridge signed an agreement to move Emirati oil through the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline — the same physical infrastructure built in 1968, now carrying UAE oil instead of Iranian oil.
​  In 2023, IMEC was announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi. The corridor runs from India through the UAE and Saudi Arabia, overland through Jordan to Israel’s port of Haifa, and across the Mediterranean to Europe. It includes rail, pipeline, fibre optic cable, hydrogen pipeline, and electricity cable. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called it ‘nothing less than historic’.
​  The route is the same route proposed in 1932. The terminus is the same terminus. The function — sitting between Gulf production and European consumption, routing everything through a single node — is identical. What has changed is the number of layers built on top of the physical infrastructure, and the degree to which those layers make the arrangement self-enforcing.​..
​..IMEC in 2023 adds a regulatory and digital layer. The corridor’s three pillars — transportation, energy, and digital connectivity — carry not just goods but conditions. The energy pillar delivers hydrogen produced to standards set by the EU’s taxonomy. The digital pillar runs fibre optic cables that carry data subject to cross-border regulatory frameworks. The financial transactions that flow through the corridor clear through settlement systems — mBridge or Agorá — built by the Bank for International Settlements.
​  The compliance conditions are environmental, financial, and regulatory, calibrated through Basel 3.1, the NGFS climate scenarios, and ESG metrics developed at forums including those hosted at Waddesdon Manor between 2014 and 2018.
  Each layer makes the control less visible and harder to challenge.
​  A physical pipe can be shut off by a government. A financial arrangement concealed through shell companies can be exposed and unwound. But a regulatory framework embedded in the capital requirements of every bank in Europe, enforced through institutional protocols that no parliament voted on, operating automatically through programmable compliance — that cannot be shut off by any single actor.​..
..The pattern is consistent across ninety years. The route through Israel does not compete with alternatives. It becomes viable when the alternatives are removed. The removal is accomplished through different mechanisms — war, regulation, physical destruction — operated by different actors, over different timescales. But the outcome is the same each time: the node at Haifa becomes the only option.​..
..Europe loses sovereignty through energy. It cannot develop domestic fossil fuels because the stranded assets framework makes them impossible to finance. It cannot restore Russian supply because the infrastructure has been physically destroyed. It cannot diversify through Iran because the United States and Israel are destroying the alternatives.
​  What remains is imported energy through IMEC, on conditions attached to its digital and regulatory infrastructure. European politicians — von der Leyen, Meloni, Macron — celebrate the corridor as historic while their regulatory architecture ensures Europe cannot build an alternative to it.​..
..The beneficiary of a multipolar world is never the poles. It is whoever sits between them and sets the standards by which they interact. Leonard Woolf made this argument in 1916, in the Fabian Society report that became the blueprint for the League of Nations.​..
​..The energy clearinghouse determines what flows between producer and consumer, and on what conditions. The money clearinghouse determines what denomination those flows settle in, and whether the dollar is required. One corridor, two clearinghouse functions, two powers subordinated through different mechanisms.​ This is the unified ledger — the BIS’s own blueprint for the future monetary system — made physical.​..
​..Ninety-four years later, the architecture is the same — but the scale is now global.
​  The institution that now requires no change is the Bank for International Settlements
 — which published the unified ledger blueprint, calibrates the capital requirements, and built the settlement infrastructure through which the corridor will clear — be it mBridge or Agorá.
​  The central clearinghouse node never moved, but the architecture developed. And the alternatives, this time, are not coming back.   
https://escapekey.substack.com/p/stranded-in-haifa

​  John Helmer on US and Israeli ID cards found near plane wreckage in Iran: WHAT THE CAPTURED RYDER DOCUMENTS REVEAL OF THE US-ISRAELI PLAN TO DESTROY IRAN  — AND WHAT COMES NEXT
​  Alive or dead, US Air Force (USAF) Major Amanda Ryder has just destroyed President Donald Trump’s future.
The document bag (lead image, bottom left) and documents (right) which the Iranian Law Enforcement Force (Faraja) has disclosed and published in the last twenty-four hours, are evidence of the weekend firefight  and destruction of at least four US aircraft  at a desert location near Isfahan, central Iran.  The cache reveals top secret operational details, location maps, time logs, local intelligence sources,  and objectives of a joint US-Israeli plan which was already in motion before the attack on Iran was launched on February 28.​   
https://johnhelmer.net/what-the-captured-ryder-documents-reveal-of-the-us-israeli-plan-to-destroy-iran-and-what-comes-next/#more-93820

​  Iran ‘trapped’ US forces during attempt to infiltrate key nuclear site in Isfahan: Report
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said this week that the alleged US rescue mission in Iran could have been an attempt to steal enriched uranium​   
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/37008

​  Iranian blow-by-blow detail of their ambush: Did Israel tip Iran off to block Trump's "win" & US exit?  Press TV Exclusive: US suffered major strategic defeat in failed Isfahan operation
  The Americans miscalculated, believing that Iran's air defense would be unable to confront the aircraft involved in the operation. However, Press TV learned that the deployment of numerous US aircraft occurred while the Iranian Armed Forces were in full alert, waiting for them. In fact, American special forces fell directly into a trap set by Iranian forces.
​  The Iranian Armed Forces, including the Army, Law Enforcement (Faraja), the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), and local popular forces, initially did not show a serious reaction to the landing of the first C-130, which was carrying dozens of special forces commandos. Evidence shows this aircraft veered somewhat off the runway while landing at the abandoned dirt airstrip.
​  Minutes later, a second C-130 aircraft approached, carrying specialized vehicles, several MH-6 Little Bird helicopters, and other support equipment. At that moment, Iranian forces on the scene targeted the second aircraft before it could land, turning its normal landing into an emergency one. Two Black Hawk helicopters also arrived shortly after.
​  It was at this moment that the aircraft, helicopters, and commandos who had disembarked from the first plane became perfect targets for the Iranian Armed Forces.
​  After the special forces realized they had fallen into the trap, the White House situation room made a critical decision: the main operation to infiltrate the nuclear site was changed into a desperate rescue operation for the dozens of US commandos trapped under Iranian fire.
​  The Americans immediately sent several smaller aircraft to extract their forces, barely managing to gather the individuals and withdraw them from the deadly situation.The rescue operation was conducted so hastily that some soldiers and officers abandoned their equipment, including, according to the evidence possessed by Press TV, the identification document of an American officer left behind in the area, to save their lives.
​  After the commandos were evacuated, American fighter jets established a line of fire with a 5-kilometer radius to prevent Iranian forces from approaching the abandoned C-130s at the airstrip. The jets also carried out heavy bombing of their own equipment to prevent it from falling into Iranian hands.
​  In this failed operation, US special forces did not even have the chance to fly the special Little Bird helicopters; some were destroyed on the ground, while others were destroyed inside the second C-130 aircraft.
​  Following this disgraceful and heavy defeat, Trump hastily and chaotically held multiple press conferences to cover up the failure and falsely portray it as a pilot rescue operation.    
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/07/766446/press-tv-exclusive-us-suffered-strategic-defeat-failed-isfshan-operation

​  Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has reportedly uncovered a DEEP STATE COUP PLOT to remove President Trump from office by SABOTAGING his war effort in Iran in order to turn the American people and the US military against him.​   https://x.com/JoshHall2024/status/2041871511913459923

The US is sending an artillery brigade to the Middle East.​   https://en.topwar.ru/280623-ssha-usilivajut-svoju-gruppirovku-na-blizhnem-vostoke-artillerijskoj-brigadoj.html

Iraqi Protesters Overrun Kuwait Consulate, Angry Over Role In US Actions​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iraqi-protesters-overrun-kuwait-consulate-angry-over-role-us-actions

​  'No more war criminal in the White House,' says US Senator Markey
Trump is clearly a war hungry madman at odds with the American people,' Ed Markey says, urging for president's impeachment​   
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/no-more-war-criminal-in-the-white-house-says-us-senator-markey/3896903

​  Former congresswoman calls for using the 25th Amendment to remove Trump
Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene is demanding that the 25th Amendment be invoked against the US President following Trump's threats to destroy Iran. She wrote this on a social media site banned in Russia.
​  A former Trump supporter, previously supportive of all his initiatives but later disillusioned with him, has demanded the US president's resignation over his recent statements, including the destruction of Iranian civilization. Judging by the former congresswoman's statement, she considers Trump insane. According to her, not a single Iranian bomb has fallen on US soil, yet he wants to destroy Iran.​   
https://en.topwar.ru/280633-jeks-kongressvumen-prizvala-ispolzovat-25-ju-popravku-dlja-otstavki-trampa.html

​  Senator Ron Johnson breaks with Trump on bombing civilian infrastructure: 'Not at war with Iranian people'
Johnson said he supports the president's decision to begin the conflict against Iran before it got too powerful, but does not support actions that could harm the Iranian people
 that the U.S. is attempting to "liberate."​   
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/ron-johnson-breaks-trump-bombing-civilian-infrastructure-not-war-iranian-people

GOP Blocks Congressional Democrats Attempt At Iran War Powers Vote​   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/congressional-democrats-will-seek-iran-war-powers-vote

​  Israeli-Backed Militia Launches Deadly Attack on Gaza Refugee Camp Under Cover of Airstrikes
“We were shocked when [they] entered the neighborhood and began firing at people’s homes and at the children inside those homes.”​   
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israel-abu-nasira-militia-attack-maghazi-camp-gaza

​  ‘Cigarette Burns, Nail Wounds’: Toddler Tortured in Gaza to Coerce Father
Israeli occupation soldiers subjected a one-year-old Palestinian child to torture in central Gaza to force his father into making confessions, according to a report by Anadolu Agency, citing Palestinian journalist Osama Al-Kahlout.
​  The child, identified as Karim Abu Nassar, was detained near the Al-Maghazi refugee camp after his father, Osama Abu Nassar, was caught in gunfire while attempting to buy supplies.
​  Eyewitnesses told Palestine TV that Israeli occupation soldiers forced the father to leave his 18-month-old son on the ground and approach a nearby military checkpoint, where he was stripped and interrogated.​..
​..Al-Jazeera reported that Israeli occupation forces “extinguished cigarettes on his body and inserted a nail into his leg” while torturing the toddler in front of his father.
​  The report emphasized the severity of the abuse, noting that the child “did not exceed two years of age” and was subjected to physical harm during detention.
Release of Child, Father Still Detained​: The child was held for approximately 10 hours before being released and handed over to his family through the International Committee of the Red Cross in Al-Maghazi.​   
https://israelpalestinenews.org/israeli-tortute-baby/

​  WHO Suspends Medical Evacuations from Gaza After One of Its Workers Killed by Israeli Fire
Majdi Aslan, a 54-year-old contractor for the WHO, was killed on Monday while driving a vehicle 
for the organization​   
https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/07/who-suspends-medical-evacuations-from-gaza-after-one-of-its-workers-killed-by-israeli-fire/

Palestinian detainee groups say children increasingly targeted by Israeli policies​   https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/168990?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Palestine’s water crisis escalates into “water starvation” threatening millions of lives​   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/04/07/360867/

Palestinian Journalists Syndicate: 53 Israeli violations against journalists in March​   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/04/08/360879/

​  IOA forces two Jerusalemite brothers to raze homes in Silwan
According to the Jerusalem Governorate, Nader and Hatem Baydoun were forced to demolish their homes in al-Bustan neighborhood of the district.
​  Ten individuals from the family, including women and children, lived in the two homes, which had been built in 1998 over an area of about 88 square meters.​ Jerusalemite homeowners find themselves forced to demolish their homes at their own expense in order to avoid paying the Israeli municipality exorbitant money in fines and demolition expenses.​   
https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/04/07/360870/

Thousands dead and neighborhoods razed to the ground: Aid agencies fear southern Lebanon is becoming the new Gaza​    https://israelpalestinenews.org/thousands-dead-and-neighborhoods-razed-to-the-ground-aid-agencies-fear-southern-lebanon-is-becoming-the-new-gaza/

​  UNIFIL Investigation Finds Israeli Tank Fire Killed Peacekeeper in Southern Lebanon​ - Spanish PM says all attacks on UN peacekeepers must cease immediately​   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/07/unifil-investigation-finds-israeli-tank-fire-killed-peacekeeper-in-southern-lebanon/

​  Israel Blows up Lebanese Town of Naquora​ - Video footage reveals explosive charges exploding what appears to be the entire village
Naqoura was a coastal village on the border with Israel that was the seat of the headquarters for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). It was known for its picturesque coastline, citrus groves, and high quality agriculture.​ A video is now circulating of the town being blown up by explosive charges detonating at once.​   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/israel-blows-up-lebanese-town-of

​  How Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon created a humanitarian crisis
In the last month, 1.2 million people in Lebanon, or one-fifth of the population, have been forced to flee their homes.

Israel Urges All Vessels to Evacuate South Lebanon Maritime Area up to Tyre​   https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5259828-israel-urges-all-vessels-evacuate-south-lebanon-maritime-area-tyre

​  Israeli strike kills eight in Lebanon's Sidon: health ministry
An Israeli strike killed eight people in the Lebanese city of Sidon, the health ministry said Wednesday, as the United States and its allies agreed to a ceasefire with Iran.​   
https://www.spacewar.com/afp/260408003015.52gjsfxi.html

​  Moscow threatens Baltic states, claiming they help Ukraine strike Russia​ -  Moscow has accused the Baltic states of assisting Ukraine in Kyiv’s campaign against Russian oil terminals, with Russia's foreign ministry issuing veiled threats against Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and blaming them for allowing the use of their airspace by Ukrainian forces.​   https://www.euronews.com/2026/04/07/moscow-threatens-baltic-states-claiming-they-help-ukraine-strike-russia

Cuba has begun receiving electricity from a Turkish floating power plant.​   https://en.topwar.ru/280629-kuba-nachala-poluchat-jelektrojenergiju-ot-tureckoj-plavuchej-stancii.html

Probably needs a new central bank: White House Says Cuban Regime Is "Bound To Fall"​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-says-cuban-regime-bound-fall

Russian Warship Escorts Sanctioned Tankers Across the English Channel, In Complete Defiance of Starmer’s Threats and the Royal Navy​   https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/04/powder-keg-europe-russian-warship-escorts-sanctioned-tankers/

​  France Moves Its Gold Home as the Sovereign Debt Crisis Quietly Unfolds
The Bank of France has just completed a major restructuring of its gold reserves, selling 129 tonnes of gold previously stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and replacing it with newly refined, internationally compliant bullion now held entirely within its vaults in Paris. This operation represented roughly 5% of France’s total gold reserves and was not a reduction in holdings but a transformation in form and location.​   https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/france/france-moves-its-gold-home-as-the-sovereign-debt-crisis-quietly-unfolds/

​Commercial mortgage defaults are up."Shocking Levels Of Distress": CMBS Delinquencies Unexpectedly Soar To COVID Highs   https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/shocking-levels-distress-cmbs-delinquencies-unexpectedly-soar-covid-highs

​  Looking presidential: JD Vance’s Anti-Fraud Task Force Uncovers $6 Billion In Suspected Fraudulent Government Contracts
The task force, alongside the General Services Administration (GSA), are beginning to send out letters to nearly 400 businesses with government contracts that they believe could be fraudulent, administration officials told the Caller. There were 895 contracts given to 392 businesses for a total of $6.3 billion, the officials explained, with $3 billion still left to be ​awarded.
​  The businesses will have 30 days to prove to the task force that they have a physical address and are legitimate. The letters will come from the executive director of the anti-fraud task force Scott Brady and GSA Administrator Edward Forst, who one senior administration official said has been instrumental in helping identify the potential fraudulent contracts.
bulk of the contracts were awarded under the Biden administration, a senior administration official told the Caller.​   
https://dailycaller.com/2026/04/08/jd-vance-task-force-eliminate-fraud-six-billion-government-contracts-gsa-edward-forst-taxpayer-waste/

​  Germany: 13-year-old Iraqi repeat offender beats elderly bus driver into a coma after the driver asked his group to be quiet
The 13-year-old Iraqi can expect little in terms of legal consequences for the brutal assault due to his age, says one official​   
https://rmx.news/germany/germany-13-year-old-iraqi-repeat-offender-beats-elderly-bus-driver-into-a-coma-after-the-driver-asked-his-group-to-be-quiet/

  The unknown equation of eating mostly highly-processed products with chemical additives: Why FDA and HHS Are Rethinking Food Safety
For 30 years, the federal government allowed the food industry to determine which ingredients are safe. That’s about to change.​   https://www.themahareport.com/p/why-the-fda-and-hhs-are-rethinking

​  Meryl Nass MD, I did a video for CHD-TV this morning with everything you need to know on the Hepatitis B vaccine for children
Slides below if you don't have time to watch​. Please share with all pregnant women.​   https://merylnass.substack.com/p/i-did-a-video-for-chd-tv-this-morning

​  Largest Real-World Analysis of Ivermectin + Mebendazole in Cancer Patients Shows 84.4% Clinical Benefit — Nearly HALF Report Cancer Disappearance or Regression
​  After just 6 months, 48.4% of cancer patients taking ivermectin and mebendazole reported no evidence of disease (32.8%) or tumor regression (15.6%), while 36.1% reported disease stabilization.​   
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-largest-real-world-analysis

​Appreciating Life (pictured with grandkids, Jenny, and a peach tree I planted)



Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Emergency Brakes

 Running on Empty,


  Shanaka Perera teases out all of the things the global economy gets through the Strait of Hormuz, and all of the food and industrial production that stops without those things, and the secondary effects of those stoppages, and how we need to think of the world differently, seeing all of these limitations..
   This is a new world where real must replace virtual in evaluations. Much revision is underway.  The Last Molecule Standing, How One Reservoir, One Strait, and Five Manufacturers Became the Hidden Operating System of Seven Global Industrie
​  Three thousand metres beneath the floor of the Persian Gulf, in a formation of Triassic dolomite and Permian limestone that predates the existence of mammals, there sits a body of pressurised gas so vast that it contains roughly nineteen percent of the world’s discovered conventional gas reserves. The South Pars/North Dome field does not respect the maritime boundary that Iran and Qatar drew across its surface. Its four reservoir layers, designated K1 through K4 by petroleum geologists, span 9,700 square kilometres of continuous rock, and the hydrocarbons trapped within them migrate freely from zones of high pressure to zones of low pressure, indifferent to the flags planted on the seafloor above. For three decades, this geological indifference was an abstraction discussed in petroleum engineering journals and the occasional diplomatic communiqué. On March 18, 2026, when Israeli F-35s struck the Asaluyeh processing hub on the Iranian shoreline and Iranian ballistic missiles hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City hours later, the abstraction became the most consequential physical fact in the global economy. Both sides had struck the same reservoir. Both sides had detonated the hidden operating system of seven industries that, until that week, appeared to have nothing in common...
..The Bitcoin mining industry is not merely unprofitable; it is actively dismantling its mining operations to build AI data centres, a structural shift that will persist regardless of Bitcoin price recovery and that further strains global power grids already squeezed by LNG shortages.
​  The convergence of these signals reveals a deeper truth about the 2026 crisis: it is reclassifying assets in real time. Gold falls because inflation expectations rise. Bitcoin falls because risk appetite collapses. Miners sell Bitcoin because compute is worth more than proof-of-work. All three movements point in the same direction: energy is the ultimate currency, and the institutions and assets that can capture or conserve energy are being repriced upward while those that merely store or speculate on value are being repriced downward. The war has not merely disrupted commodity markets. It has laid bare the hierarchy of value in a world where molecules are scarce.​..
​..The last molecule of helium boiling off in a stranded ISO container somewhere in the Gulf of Oman is not a metaphor. It is a physical event occurring at minus 268.9 degrees Celsius, measured in hours, governed by the second law of thermodynamics, and beyond the reach of any diplomatic communiqué, any central bank intervention, or any financial derivative. The molecule does not know about the April 6 deadline. It does not care about the IRGC corridor or the yuan settlement mechanism or the Islamabad quadrilateral. It obeys physics, and physics does not negotiate.
​  The question this crisis poses to every institution responsible for pricing risk, managing supply chains, or governing economic policy is not whether the specific vulnerabilities exposed in March 2026 will be patched. They will be. Qatar will rebuild. Insurance will normalise. Helium supply will eventually rebalance. The question is whether anything structural will change, whether the three root causes, efficiency-fragility convergence, molecular indivisibility, and temporal scale mismatch, will be addressed at the architectural level.​..
​..What would breaking the cycle require? Three structural shifts, each of which contradicts the economic logic that produced the vulnerability. First, strategic reserves for gases, not just oil. The Federal Helium Reserve was created in 1925 precisely because the US government recognised helium as a strategic material. It was privatised in 2024 because the US government decided it was not. The 2026 crisis has proven the 1925 assessment correct and the 2024 decision catastrophic. A helium strategic reserve, an LNG strategic reserve, and a nitrogen fertiliser strategic reserve are now strategic necessities, not policy luxuries. Second, manufacturing diversification mandated by regulation, not encouraged by price signals. The BAHX oligopoly exists because five companies possess the expertise and there is no market incentive for a sixth to enter. Governments that wish to avoid being held hostage by a five-company manufacturing queue must fund and certify new entrants, a process that will take a decade and cost billions. Third, temporal literacy in financial modelling. Risk models must incorporate manufacturing lead times, geological timescales, and insurance normalisation periods as structural parameters, not as tail-risk scenarios with near-zero probability weights. The gap between financial pricing horizons and physical reality horizons is not an edge case. It is the dominant feature of the 2026 crisis.
​  The IEA has described this crisis as among the gravest threats to global energy security in decades. The evidence assembled across these nine sections suggests it is more than that. It is the first Kardashev-1 stress test of global interdependence, the moment when the human species discovered that the molecular substrate of its technological civilisation runs through a single point of failure that nobody mapped, nobody priced, and nobody defended. The 2026 Iran war did not break globalisation. It revealed its deepest substrate. And the substrate is brittle, interwoven, and finally exposed.​   
https://substack.com/home/post/p-192518871

​  Steven Newbury scans from a different vantage: Fortress America and the Thermodynamic VacuumWhy the Empire is Cannibalising the Passenger Cabin to Delay the Singularity
​  In my earlier piece, The Gravity of the Situation, I compared our global economy to a ‘Leviathan on rails’—a massive, calcified machine that requires a colossal, constant input of energy just to keep the internal heating on against the crushing friction of Entropic Drag (Fdrag). We have inadvertently built the economic equivalent of Snowpiercer, where velocity is non-negotiable and the engine is sacred.
​  The events of the first quarter of 2026—from the US abduction of Maduro to the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the UK’s farcical ‘Shadow Fleet’ interdictions—mark a terminal phase-shift in how this train is being operated. The engine is stalling. In response, Fortress America has begun barricading the doors, initiating a massive wealth and resource siphon (α), and deliberately triggering global Catabolic Triage.
​  The Multipolar response—BRICS payment systems and ‘routing tables’—is a delusion of a different kind. Stalinism, Neoliberalism, and state-directed Eastern capitalism are all offshoots of the same Strong Enlightenment pathology: an anthropocentric, mechanistic worldview that believes nature is a passive input managed by human cleverness.
​  To understand the kinetic chaos of 2026, we must dispel the foundational myth of the Strong Enlightenment: the belief that all oil is thermodynamically equal, and that financial policy can dictate physical reality.
​  Mainstream economists conflate financial liquidity with thermodynamic fungibility. They assume that if a barrel of medium/sour crude from the Persian Gulf is taken off the market, the system can simply replace it with Light Tight Oil (LTO) from the US Permian basin. This is a fatal category error.
​  A barrel of oil is not a generic unit; its chemistry dictates its utility. US shale is ‘light/sweet’, yielding naphtha and gasolineMiddle Eastern and Venezuelan crudes are ‘heavy/sour’, yielding the middle distillates—specifically diesel—that power global logistics, freight, and agriculture. You cannot run a heavy freight train on motorcycle fuel.
​  Geologically, global production of conventional medium-sour crude plateaued and entered terminal decline around 2005. From a purely biophysical perspective, it is irrational to expect a structurally depleting, highly essential input to trade at a discount to highly abundant, lower-utility shale.
​  Yet, this irrationality is structurally mandatory under the Neoliberal operating system...​  
​..The BRICS coalition is not presenting a GK (steady-state, ecological) alternative. They are simply offering ‘System B’—a competing Gr (expansionist) model trapped on the exact same goal-seeking trajectory of infinite physical throughput. Trading oil for gold does not alter its plummeting ERoEI.
​  We have reached the Resource Entropy Singularity—the point of no return where the forces driving resource depletion become overwhelming and irreversible. The Fortress America doctrine will fail because it is an Autophagy Trap—eating its own manufacturing organs to keep the Imperial brain alive for a few more hours. But the Multipolar alternative will also fail, because it seeks only to manage the depletion of a finite Earth more equitably among nation-states.
​  We are watching the final spasms of a Gr engine that has run out of fuel, burning its highest-grade military exergy to wage a futile war against entropy itself. The only survival lies in stepping off the train and remembering how to build the GK lifeboats they tried so desperately to make us forget.​   
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/fortress-america-and-the-thermodynamic

​  Surplus Energy Economics, “Don’t mention the war”, part two​ - TRYING TO DODGE AN ENERGY BULLET
For perfectly understandable reasons, many comparisons have been drawn between contemporary events in the Persian Gulf and the oil crises of the 1970s. This can only be useful, though, if we have an accurate perception of what really happened during that traumatic decade.
​  That was a time when long years of supply complacency were suddenly replaced with a new energy consciousness. One consequence was the rapid abandonment of whole swathes of energy-profligate technologies.
​  If, after an even longer period of complacency, a new sense of energy consciousness results from unfolding events in the Gulf, energy-intensive business models for artificial intelligence could, amongst many others, follow the ‘gas-guzzling’ cars of the early seventies to the scrap-heap of bad ideas. ‘Working smarter’ will involve achieving the same objectives with less use of energy.
​  Second, it was hard enough for individuals – and, indeed, for decision-makers – to ensure the continued availability of necessities, let alone to spend money or energy on anything less than vital. Under these conditions, the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services was dramatically reduced.
​  The current crisis has erupted at a time when the affordability of discretionaries is already under relentless downwards pressure, which is the chief implication of the non-temporary, non-crisis “crisis” in the “cost of living”.​..
..The one comparison that should not be made with the events of the 1970s is the subsequent economic recovery. This time around, no such rebound will be possible. Back in the 1970s, the all-important Energy Cost of Energy was below 2%, and essentially stable – today, ECoEs are above 11%, and are rising relentlessly...
​..The “real” economy of material products and services has stopped growing, and has started to shrink, whilst the real costs of energy-intensive necessities are rising relentlessly.
​  Investment in new and replacement productive capacity has become opportunity-constrained, which is why so much capital is now devoted to chasing up the prices of existing assets.
​  Past exercises in credit and monetary adventurism have created a financial system that is not only hugely over-sized but is also lethally over-complex. Economic prospects, looking ahead, are for ever-worsening discretionary compression, accompanied by rising levels of economic hardship and financial insecurity. Ultimately, the financial system will succumb to a crisis which will make 2008 look like a stroll in the park.​..
..We cannot know whether the war in Iran will, or will not, result in a full-blown reprise of the 1970s. If it does, though, it could eliminate any possibility of a managed retreat as material economic prosperity stops growing and inflects into contraction.​   https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/04/02/321-dont-mention-the-war-part-two/

​  David Stockman presents a conventional economic analysis, Not Your Grandfather’s Stagflation
But here’s the thing. The US economy of the 1970s was able to cope with the pressures of high inflation, oil, and other commodity shocks and the stop-and-go disruptions of a Federal Reserve that had been newly released from the disciplinary effects of the Bretton Woods gold standard. In large part that was because the aggregate level of debt on the US economy was relatively modest.
​  Total public and private debt in 1970 stood at $1.5 trillion, representing just 147% of GDP,​ as shown in the graph below. Moreover, the latter was the long-time national leverage ratio (total debt divided by national income) through historic times​. of thick and thin, going all the way back to 1870.
​  Moreover, even after the large government deficits of the 1970s and a surge of inflation-driven private borrowing during the decade, total US debt stood at $4.6 trillion by 1980. That was just 162% of GDP.
​  In a word, the US economy during this decade of stagflation was battered by unprecedented peacetime inflation, but it was not yet smothered by crushing debt.​.. The US economy is now lugging $60 trillion more debt than would be the case if the 1970s average national leverage ratio had been maintained. And even at a weighted average 5% interest rate across all sectors of the economy, that’s $3 trillion per year of more interest expense and therefore less cash flow available for investment and discretionary spending.​..
..Moreover, in the case of the industrial core of the US economy, the growth rate has not just slowed; it has actually come to a screeching halt.
​  Thus, between 1954 and 1969, the industrial production index rose by a robust 4.5% per annum. During the years since the debt-fueled financial crisis of 2008, however, there has been no growth at all in the industrial sector of the US economy.​..
..At the same time, the “cheap” debt that landed on US balance sheets did not go into a huge surge in productive investment, but instead fueled decades of financial asset inflation, leveraged speculation, and financial engineering in the corporate sector. The net result was malinvestment and wasted capital, labor, and other economic resources on an epic scale...

​..This brings us to the impending stagflation. As it was prior to February 28th, real output growth had already stalled. According to the real GDP statistics, growth between Q4 2025 and Q4 2025 posted at just 1.78%. But virtually all of that was due to the AI bubble-driven massive increase in spending for data centers and other AI infrastructure.
​  This massive diversion of capital was not owing to an overpowering use case for AI or the fact of superior returns on AI investments. In fact, there has been virtually no return on AI assets at all, with the surge of capital spending amounting essentially to a new version of “Build it and they will come.”
​  But after February 28th and Trump’s initiation of a war in the Persian Gulf that can’t be won and which will send the global economy into a tailspin like nothing seen since the mid-1970s, we are truly off to the stagflationary races.
​  Energy and fuel costs have already soared. Most importantly, the workhorse hydrocarbon of the US economy—diesel fuels used by the nation’s massive fleet of trucks, rail, and farm tractors—is already above its 2022 level at $5.40 per gallon and still climbing.
​  Likewise, on the very eve of the planting season fertilizer costs have already doubled, meaning that application rates will be cut back, yields will fall, and food prices will be soaring by the 4th of July when the USDA crop condition reports pretty much forecast the fall production levels.
​  And, of course, no one took into account that the natural gas processing plants of Qatar were fastened at the hip to the semiconductor plants in South Korea and Taiwan and from there to the entire manufacturing sector of the world. All of this through the life line of helium gas extracted from natural​-gas processing plants.​..
​..The inflation genie is now out of the bottle but the Fed can not really slam on the brakes ala Volcker because the US economy is staggering under $60 trillion of incremental debt.
​  At the same time, the war and the erupting commodity inflation cycle it has engendered means that it can’t turn on the printing presses to “stimulate,” either.​   
https://brownstone.org/articles/not-your-grandfathers-stagflation/

​  Jimmy Carr: “The Roman Empire didn’t fall. It became the Church.”
And the British Empire? According to Jimmy, it didn’t collapse either — it simply turned into a bank. We handed the colonies back with a polite “sorry about that,” then offered to “hold” all their money safely in the City of London. Roman Empire → Vatican ​: British Empire → Global financial hub​   Empires don’t die. They just rebrand.​   
https://x.com/newstart_2024/status/2040627389382693138

  ​Simplicius presents the $600 million question: "Was it a rescue, or a failed attempt to steal Iran's enriched uranium". It's Official: US Boots-On-Ground Deep Inside Iran Amidst Another Day of Humiliating Losses  ​                                                                                          The morning broke with news of a large-scale US operation to supposedly extract the second downed pilot (WSO - Weapons Systems Officer) from Iran, who had ejected from his shot-down F-15E on Thursday. The scale of losses for this operation alone turned out to be massive, as the US lost hundreds of millions worth of planes allegedly getting the airman back to safety.  
​  The operation involved all kinds of Special Forces units which amounted to “boots on ground” inside Iran for the first time—at least officially.​   
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/its-official-us-boots-on-ground-deep

  Escape Key, The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, IMEC During a Time of War
President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires on April 8 at 8pm Eastern Time. He promised that every power plant and every bridge in Iran will be destroyed by midnight if Tehran does not comply.
​  Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal and put forward its own ten-point plan, demanding a permanent end to the war, a legal framework for charging transit fees on the strait, the lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction funding...
​..On Monday, Israel struck Iran’s South Pars petrochemical complex at Asaluyeh without waiting for Trump’s timeline. And Axios, citing a defence official, reported that a plan for a massive US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran’s energy facilities is ‘ready to go’, with scepticism inside the administration about granting another extension.
​  Whichever way it goes, the outcome for European energy leads to the same place...
​..Europe, already sitting on its lowest gas reserves in four years, enters a full energy emergency. The EU Energy Commissioner has already said that fuel prices are ‘unlikely to go back to normal in a foreseeable future’. Five European finance ministers have written to the European Commission warning of ‘market distortions’ caused by the price spike.
​  Under these conditions, the pressure to find alternative energy routes becomes overwhelming. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor shifts from a long-term plan to an immediate strategic priority. The bypass pipelines already running in the UAE (Fujairah, built in 2012) and Saudi Arabia (the East-West pipeline) become the only working routes out of the GulfBoth countries are IMEC signatories, and both hold concessions along the corridor.​..
..Shell’s CEO warned last week that the disruptions have ‘moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, and then more so into Europe as we get into April'. The International Energy Agency has called this ‘the greatest global energy security challenge in history’...
​..Iran’s ten-point counter-proposal includes a demand for a permanent legal framework that would allow it to charge transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with the revenue used to pay for war damage​,.. a legal arrangement that gives Iran permanent leverage over twenty per cent of the world’s seaborne oil.​.. A toll on Hormuz turns the strait into an expensive chokepoint.
​..The more expensive Hormuz becomes, the better the economics of the bypass route through Israel look — a route that avoids both Hormuz and Suez entirely.​ A deal makes IMEC necessary permanently.​..
​..Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Salman, and the UAE leadership are reportedly urging Trump not to accept a ceasefire unless Iran makes major concessions​ — including reopening the strait and surrendering its enriched uranium.
​  These are the same three states that pre-built bypass infrastructure before the crisis — the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, the East-West pipeline to Yanbu, and the Fujairah pipeline. Israel and the UAE signed the Abraham Accords. All three hold IMEC concessions. The states that built the alternative are the ones advising the president on how long to keep bombing the original.​.. 
 If Hormuz reopens under a permanent toll, or stays closed long enough to force Europe into committing to alternative infrastructure, then IMEC becomes the default route.​..
..The route through Israel only becomes operational after the alternatives have been removed. The Kirkuk-Haifa pipeline in 1932 became necessary after Iraq’s other oil export routes were cut. The Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline in 1968 became necessary after the Suez Canal was closed and Soviet oil deliveries were cancelled. The EAPC-MED-RED agreement in 2020 became viable after the Abraham Accords reopened the route and Russian gas to Europe was about to be destroyed.
​  Trump’s current deadline is the latest chapter in the same pattern. The method changes each time, but the destination remains static...
..European banks cannot finance domestic oil and gas development at competitive rates, because the assets are ‘stranded’ — fossil fuel reserves are classified as ‘financial liabilities’ and made impossible to finance...
​..On March 5, the Council on Foreign Relations published ‘Strait-jacket: Global Energy Flows and the War with Iran’. It documented the bypass routes through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah pipeline as the only working alternatives — both operated by countries that signed the IMEC agreement. The piece then pointed to renewables and nuclear energy as the long-term solution, presenting the crisis as something that was simply speeding up a transition already under way​...
​..On April 3, the CFR president wrote a column called ‘Taking Stock of the War in Iran’ that included a remarkable admission: ‘Prior to the attacks on Iran that began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz was open. Now it’s broken.’ He pointed out that only two per cent of the oil passing through Hormuz goes to the United States, while eighty to eighty-five per cent goes to Asia and Europe depends heavily on the gas. In other words, America broke a chokepoint it barely uses, at the cost of everyone else’s energy supply.​..
..The Atlantic Council has published a series of reports making the case for IMEC across trade, energy, and digital infrastructure.
​  In August 2025, it argued that IMEC ‘must be more than a trade route’ and that customs systems across all corridor countries ‘must speak the same digital language’. In November 2025, its main report on the project described IMEC as ‘a strategic platform where infrastructure, energy, and digital networks become tools of statecraft’​...
​..On Wednesday April 8, at 8:30am Eastern Time, the Atlantic Council hosts a panel called ‘IMEC During a Time of War’. Its stated purpose is to ‘identify what IMEC-associated projects could provide trade and energy alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz’.
​  At 8pm the same evening, Trump’s deadline to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges expires. The replacement corridor is being planned in the morning. The destruction of the competing route is scheduled for the evening.
​  On April 5, the Atlantic Council’s senior Middle East adviser told the Financial Times: ‘I sense a shift from hypothetical considerations to operational reality. Everyone is looking at the same map and reaching the same conclusions’. The Financial Times article names IMEC as one of the bypass options now being actively revived.
​  Yossi Abu, the chief executive of Israeli energy company NewMed Energy, told the paper: ‘We need oil pipelines and rail connections across the region, over land, without giving others choke points to strangle us’.
​  The corridor is being sold as freedom from chokepoints — but its function is to become one.​..
​..While the major powers hedge, the alternatives are being destroyed — by war, by regulation, by financial architecture — and the corridor that remains routes through a single node. The value flows to whoever built the clearing function before the crisis arrived.
​ The intellectual preparation is complete, and the crisis is providing the justification. And all three roads — escalation, extension, or a deal — lead to the same place: Haifa.​..
..The same pattern is visible today: the energy transition framework, the managed dollar decline, and the IMEC corridor were all published before the crisis that made them urgent. These institutions do not react to events — they prepare the frameworks in advance.​ And the frameworks define the conditions on which peace is offered.​   https://escapekey.substack.com/p/imec-during-a-time-of-war

​  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-04-07
Trump's Tuesday deadline expires tonight at 8PM ET. Iran rejected the ceasefire, submitted maximalist 10-point demands instead...
..Iran struck Saudi Arabia's Jubail Industrial City - the Middle East's largest industrial hub and 4th largest petrochemical complex globally (SABIC). Large fires confirmed by multiple sources and satellite imagery. Kuwait lost two desalination plants supplying 90% of its drinking water. UAE's Habshan (80% of domestic gas) remains offline since April 3...
..Iran fired ballistic missiles at central Israel this morning (April 7), triggering 254 simultaneous alerts covering 7.3 million people. Impacts confirmed in Bnei Brak, Tel Aviv, and Ramat HaSharon. Cluster munitions from earlier strikes killed 4 in Haifa...
..UK refuses US use of RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for strikes on Iranian bridges and power plants, citing war crimes concernsSpain denied airspace to US tankers (caught live on air control). France denied overflight. Rubio threatens to "close bases and withdraw troops" if Europe restricts access. NATO fracturing in real time... 
..France repatriated 100% of its gold from the NY Fed. Banque de France sold 129 tonnes of legacy bars in New York, bought equivalent in Europe, booked a €12.8B capital gain...
​..Iran's 10-point response demands: permanent end to war (not pause), all sanctions lifted, reconstruction, end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Hormuz reopened on Iran's terms with $2M per ship fee split with Oman...
​..Iranian Light crude now trading at +$1 premium to Brent — first time since 2022 — Iran is the only Gulf producer still able to export through Hormuz​...
​..Failed US special operation near Isfahan
Official story: rescue of downed F-15E crew. Scale suggests otherwise: 155 aircraft, 64 fighters, 48 tankers, 13 rescue aircraft per Trump's own presser
​  Two C-130s and MH-6 helicopters destroyed at a desert airstrip 50km from Isfahan — near Natanz nuclear facility
Armchair Warlord's detailed analysis: "The official story — that a huge direct-action SOF force landed near Isfahan to rescue one airman — is nonsense"
​  ID cards found at wreckage include Major Amanda M. Ryder USAF and what appear to be Israeli mission specialists
Iran's FM suggests mission may have been a cover to steal enriched uranium​ ... Total hardware losses estimated at $400-500M​...
​..Russia providing targeting data to Iran
Jerusalem Post: Russia provided Iran with a ranked list of 55 Israeli energy targets divided by strategic importance, per Ukrainian intelligence source
​  Russian Liana reconnaissance satellites sharing imagery for targeting US, Israeli, and Gulf assets per shanaka86
Russian technicians upgraded Shahed drones with GLONASS guidance improving accuracy
​  Russia simultaneously selling gold to fund its own war deficit — largest drawdown since 2002​   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-04-07

  ​Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-04-06
Trump declares Tuesday “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day”. At 8 AM Easter Sunday, Trump posted: “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.”​...
..Massive US aircraft losses during rescue operation inside Iran. SEAL Team 6 extracted the downed F-15E WSO from the Zagros Mountains, but the cost was staggering: 2 MC-130Js destroyed on the ground, 4 MH-6 Little Birds destroyed, 1 A-10 lost, 2 HH-60s damaged, plus the original F-15E and 1-2 MQ-9 Reapers – estimated at $400-600 million in hardware...
..Turkish Stream pipeline sabotage attempt with US-made explosives. Serbian military confirmed explosives found near the gas pipeline to Hungary were American-made, planted by a “militarily trained migrant”. Ukraine was officially cleared. Orban convened an emergency defense council...
​..Oil shock entering physical scarcity phase
The tankers that left the Gulf before closure are still arriving – once they unload, nothing follows.
 Rory Johnston calculates ~13 million barrels/day of real production shut in, the largest single supply shock in history.​..
​..The uranium raid theory
Multiple analysts including Armchair Warlord, Will Schryver, and a retired special operations officer argue the “rescue operation” was actually a failed attempt to seize Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile near Isfahan/Natanz. The evidence: an F-15E flying to Isfahan (where nuclear sites are), a company-sized SOF force with assault helicopters landing 50km away, the proximity to Iran’s nuclear facilities, and the absurd force package for rescuing a single airman. FinanceLancelot and Lord Bebo reached similar conclusions independently. The firing of General George (Army Chief of Staff) on April 2nd, possibly for opposing the plan, adds weight.​   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-04-06

Iran Telling People "Evacuate" entire countries in Middle East-  Iran is sending out media postings telling people to "Evacuate the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar immediately.​   https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/iran-telling-people-evacuate-entire-countries-in-middle-east?catid=17&Itemid=101

​  Drone strike on US Embassy in Saudi Arabia was Israeli 'false flag': IRGC
Iran has denied several attacks on its neighbors, including on desalination plans in Kuwait and a major oil refinery in Saudi Arabia
​  Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) rejected on 4 April accusations that it carried out an attack on the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia during the early days of the war, saying that it was a false flag operation carried out by Israel...
..The IRGC has confirmed it has struck US and Israeli assets and bases in Gulf states and across the region, many of which play a direct role in the war on Iran. However, IRGC commanders have clearly identified their intended targets, and the US embassy in Riyadh was not among them.
​  The IRGC statement added that Iran had already informed neighboring countries of the necessary warnings to “prevent further escalation,” and warned that countries in the region “must remain vigilant against provocations from the American–Zionist current,” which aims to destabilize the region and create chaos between Iran and neighboring states.  
​ Iran has stated that multiple attacks attributed to it since the start of the war on 28 February have been false flags carried out by Israel.
​  On Friday, the IRGC condemned the alleged targeting of a water desalination plant in Kuwait, saying that Israel was “behind this cowardly act of aggression aimed at sowing discord.” Kuwaiti authorities attributed the attack to Iran.​   
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/36955

​Americans should not have to see a blown-up AWACS on a Saudi runway... US Satellite Firm Blacks Out Iran War Images Per US Government Request   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/05/us-satellite-firm-blacks-out-iran-war-images-per-us-government-request/

​  Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war status quo – Iranian official
The key waterway is closed for the US and its allies, but ships from other countries are able to use it, the official told RT​   
https://web.archive.org/web/20260403000608/https://www.rt.com/news/637064-iran-strait-hormuz-us/

Petrochemical Supply Shock Begins Idling Asian Factories​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/petrochemical-supply-shock-begins-idling-asian-factories

​  Tucker Carlson Urges U.S. Officials To Defy Trump On Iran Orders: "Say No, Absolutely Not"
Tucker Carlson has publicly called on White House aides and Pentagon officials to refuse President Donald Trump’s orders if they involve mass attacks on Iranian civilians or the possible use of nuclear weapons, telling them to "say no, absolutely not" directly to the president​.   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tucker-carlson-urges-us-officials-defy-trump-iran-orders-say-no-absolutely-not

A brief history of the Israeli nuclear program, the open secret at the heart of the Iran war​   https://israelpalestinenews.org/a-brief-history-of-the-israeli-nuclear-program-the-open-secret-at-the-heart-of-the-iran-war/

U.N. experts demand Israel release prominent Gaza doctor after reports of ‘severe torture’​   https://israelpalestinenews.org/dr-hussam-abu-safiya-united-nations/

Israeli Settlers Killed a Palestinian Farmer on His Own Land, in Front of His Father. Yes, Again​   https://israelpalestinenews.org/settlers-killed-palestinian-farmer/

Settler attacks intensify across West Bank​   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/04/06/360777/

Gaza: Over 8,000 Children Remain Missing, 2,100 Under Rubble​   https://www.telesurenglish.net/gaza-over-8000-children-remain-missing/

More than 9600 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons​   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/04/06/360801/

At least 13 people killed, 7 wounded in Israeli strikes in Lebanon​ - Air raids hit Bekaa, Nabatieh areas, including strikes on vehicle, site near hospital​   https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/8-killed-55-injured-in-israeli-airstrikes-in-lebanon/3894196

Israeli Strikes Kill Dozens of Civilians in Lebanon, Including Christian Official​ - Attack on Christian town east of Beirut killed at least three​   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/06/israeli-strikes-kill-dozens-of-civilians-in-lebanon-including-christian-official/

Israel’s Latest Genocide Is Against the Shias of Lebanon. Why Is the World Silent?​   https://israelpalestinenews.org/israels-latest-genocide-is-against-the-shias-of-lebanon-why-is-the-world-silent/

​  EU may turn into very hostile military alliance for Russia, worse than NATO — Medvedev
The deputy head of the Russian Security Council that said until now the Russian rhetoric about EU membership had been restrained and calm in relation to all neighbors, even to Ukraine​   
https://tass.com/politics/2111411

​  Not much of a "secret" at all: Battle for Bulgaria: The EU opens a new front in its election war
The world’s eyes are on Hungary, but the EU is busy crushing a populist revolt in Bulgaria​   
https://web.archive.org/web/20260404210748/https://www.rt.com/news/637295-bulgaria-eu-election-hungary/

(As offal approaches fan) EU Parliament Shocks Brussels: Chat Surveillance Rejected, Deportation Centers Approved​   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eu-parliament-shocks-brussels-chat-surveillance-rejected-deportation-centers-approved

​  Kyle Young on the Charlie Kirk assassination cover-up developments: It's Falling Apart
Joe Kent, who was a friend of Charlie Kirk, had some inside information that foreign powers may have played a role in Charlies assassination. He wanted his agency, the National Counterterrorism Center, to launch a probe into that possibility. He was blocked by the FBI from doing so. Here again, we see the FBI manipulating affairs to prevent the truth from coming out.
​  Between that blockage and the war in Iran, Joe Kent had become so fed up with the corruption that he quit.​..

​..And now the ATF has said the bullet fragment supposedly recovered from Charlies body does not match Tyler Robinsons gun. The ATF has verified what some of us have been shouting from the rooftops for the past 6 months: Charlie Kirk was not shot with a .30-06 round from Robinson’s gun.
​  This is huge for several reasons. Not only does it make the idea that Charlie Kirk was shot with Tyler Robinson’s .30-06 an impossibility, it makes him innocent. Secondly, it speaks volumes about the veracity of the ATF. Because the ATF gave an honest appraisal of the fragment, it would seem the ATF is not participating in the Charlie Kirk conspiracy and coverup.​..
​..By now we can see that the killing of Charlie Kirk was a very complex operation, with lots of moving parts. The answer to the question of why the FBI wants us to believe that Tyler Robinson, a lone 22 year old gunman with no prior experience doing this type of thing would want to kill Charlie Kirk is… he’s a key part of the coverup. He’s the patsy. His prosecution and execution is meant to put an end to the question about the greater political agenda behind the Kirk’s assassination.​   https://secularheretic.substack.com/p/its-falling-apart

  Interesting take: Tesla is not a car company, it never was. David Friedberg, scientist, billionaire investor, and one of the sharpest long-term thinkers in Silicon Valley just laid out the most important prediction about Tesla that almost nobody is talking about. Tesla began as an electric car company, then quietly became an autonomous driving company. But the autonomous driving technology was never really about cars, it was secretly training the most capable robotic brain ever built. Every mile of FSD data, every Autopilot update, was building something far larger than transportation. The end product is a robot that can do anything, anywhere. Here is where it gets uncomfortable. Friedberg's argument is that even if governments ban robots from taking jobs on Earth and politicians are already talking about it, there is literally nothing they can do about the moon. The moon has rare metals, resources, and a vacuum environment perfect for manufacturing semiconductors without contamination.​   https://x.com/MilkRoadAI/status/2040465820497678545

​Paul Marik MD, Repurposed Drugs and Nutraceuticals: A New Frontier in Cancer Therapy" -  "The Future of Cancer Treatment Is Already Here"   https://substack.com/home/post/p-189608022

Spring Gardening for WW-3 Series:

Deciding Where To Grow Vegetables​:  https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/deciding-where-to-grow-vegetables

Preparing Your Kitchen Garden​: ​ https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/preparing-your-kitchen-garden

Growing Food​:  https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/growing-food

​Kitchen Gardeners (pictured near rural garden)