Creative Realists,
Gail Tverberg, A lack of very cheap oil is leading to debt problems - We planned as if the low-priced oil era of 1948 to 1973 would last
The issue I see is that many promises were made during the period between the end of World War II and 1973, when oil prices were very low, and most people assumed that oil supply could grow endlessly. No one stopped to think that this was a temporary situation that likely could not be repeated. If things didn’t work out as planned, debt bubbles could bring down the economy.....Between 1920 and 1970, US oil supply grew rapidly. The early oil was easy to extract and close to customers wanting to purchase it. There had been warnings from physicists (including, most notably, M. King Hubbert) that this could not go on indefinitely, but most people assumed that any obstacles were far in the future...
..Of course, there were other countries producing oil besides the US at that time, so it was possible to purchase imported oil. The US still had some oil it could produce, but it tended to require more complex operations. For example, some of the oil was in Alaska. Bringing this oil to market required working in a cold climate, laying a long pipeline, and using ships to transport the oil to locations with refineries.
Low oil prices were very beneficial to the economy, for as long as they lasted...
..Oil and other energy products are like food for the economy. During the period when oil prices were very low, there was sufficient margin for purchasing all kinds of “extras”...
..In the low-priced oil era, small businesses were sufficient for many types of operations. There was little need for a deep organizational hierarchy, or for advanced energy-saving versions of manufactured devices. Most goods used in the US were made in the US...
..Once the economy started to need more complexity, things began to change...
..The economy needs a strong middle class to maintain the buying power needed to purchase goods such as vehicles, motorcycles, and new homes, to keep the price of oil up. If the middle class starts to disappear, or if young people start earning less than their parents did at the same age (adjusted for inflation), then it becomes difficult to keep the prices of oil and other energy products up. Prices must be both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers...
..Recessions took place when oil prices rose. Governments found that they needed to bail out their economies with more debt when oil prices rose. Since 2008, the ratio of US debt to GDP has skyrocketed. Quite a bit of the added debt has been to pay for programs for poor people and the elderly...
..The current level of debt of the US government is widely viewed as being too high. One analysis suggests that if the ratio of government debt to GDP exceeds 90%, economic growth is inhibited. The US debt to GDP ratio is now 120% on the basis shown, which is well above the 90% threshold. One concern is that interest payments on debt already exceed the amount the US spends on defense each year. Taxes need to rise, simply to pay the interest on the debt.
Growing debt, particularly during the Stagflation Stage, is one of the issues mentioned by researchers into so-called secular cycles, which are long-term cycles that take centuries to complete. In the book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov, a group of people somehow obtain possession of an area of land (often by cutting down trees or winning a war) that allows the population of the group to temporarily surge. When the population reaches the carrying capacity of the area, population growth greatly slows in a period referred to as Stagflation. Wage and wealth disparity become more of a problem, as does debt.
Eventually, according to Turchin and Nefedof’s study examining eight societies, populations tended to collapse over long periods, ranging from 20 to 50 years. Such cycles are closely related to the periods of growth and collapse analyzed in Prof. Joseph Tainter’s book, “The Collapse of Complex Societies.”
The time ahead ["Crisis"] looks worrying, if my analysis is correct. https://gailtverberg.
The Honest Sorcerer, Life On The Slippery Slope
Two scenarios for what a world with a declining resource and energy availability could look like https://thehonestsorcerer. Hal Turner, Standard Overnight Funds Rate Plunges - Signals "Panic"
On November 6, 2025 the SOFR crashed to 3.92% -- the lowest level in two years. It is the benchmark that controls $397 trillion in global contracts, and it just signaled something catastrophic.
This is not a rate cut. This is a liquidity flood. The rate dropping like this is designed to make it super cheap for Banks and Corporations to borrow funds overnight to balance their books...
..Translation: The Fed sees something breaking and is throwing liquidity at it before the fractures become visible. https://halturnerradioshow.
Martin Armstrong, Fed Quietly Injects $125 Billion in Repo Market
..The central bank stepped into the repo market in 2019 and has not injected an amount this large since the 2020 pandemic. This move comes as bank reserves drop to a four-year low of $2.8 trillion and liquidity is certainly a valid concern. More importantly, the Fed wants banks to trade US debt for cash and force the private sector to absorb the debt. The Fed does not want to publicly provide a bail out so they inject money into the standing repo facility and lend against Treasuries.
The public must have confidence in the banks, and the banks must have confidence that the Federal Reserve will always catch them before they fall. We’ve seen several smaller banks go under in 2025, yet they were small enough not to raise concerns. The Fed fears panic more than it fears inflation. Powell knows that the central bank lost the ability to control inflation, but for now, it can control panic.
The cycle cannot be prevented. The systemic issues are too far gone for repair. https://www.
Yves Smith, Naked Capitalism: Has Ed Zitron Found the Fatal Flaw with OpenAI and Its Flagship ChatGPT?
If his finding is valid, large language models like ChapGPT are much further from ever becoming economically viable than even optimists imagine. No wonder OpenAI chief Sam Altman has been talking up a bailout.
By way of background, over a series of typically very long and relentlessly documented articles, Zitron has demonstrated (among many other things) the absolutely enormous capital expenditures of the major AI incumbents versus comparatively thin revenues, let alone profits. Zitron’s articles on the enormous cash burn and massive capital misallocation that AI represents have the work of Gary Marcus on fundamental performance shortcomings as de facto companion pieces. https://www.nakedcapitalism.
By way of background, over a series of typically very long and relentlessly documented articles, Zitron has demonstrated (among many other things) the absolutely enormous capital expenditures of the major AI incumbents versus comparatively thin revenues, let alone profits. Zitron’s articles on the enormous cash burn and massive capital misallocation that AI represents have the work of Gary Marcus on fundamental performance shortcomings as de facto companion pieces. https://www.nakedcapitalism.
We'll begin with the famous quote from economist John Maynard Keynes: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
It's a reminder that even the smartest traders in the room, the ones who've built entire careers calling bubbles and shorting tops, can be steamrolled when markets detach from reality. https://www.zerohedge.com/
It's a reminder that even the smartest traders in the room, the ones who've built entire careers calling bubbles and shorting tops, can be steamrolled when markets detach from reality. https://www.zerohedge.com/
More than a year ago, economic analyst and financial writer David Morgan predicted we were entering a global Great Depression. With massive AI layoffs, sky rocketing silver and gold prices, exploding debt and civil unrest increasing, it looks like Morgan was right again.
On the money side, demand is so shaky for US Treasuries that former Trump Federal Reserve nominee, Judy Shelton, was pitching a gold-backed US Treasury Bond on CNBC. Was Shelton running a flag up the pole to gauge the reaction for the White House? Morgan says:“You are not getting on CNBC and talking about a gold-backed bond unless it’s been, let’s say, approved by the powers that be.
This is something that will help restore a sound monetary system with possible gold convertibility.
Shelton argues that the US monetary system is unstable, inflationary and it erodes purchasing power.
Shelton says a new bond with a link to gold would restore trust.” https://www.zerohedge.com/
This is something that will help restore a sound monetary system with possible gold convertibility.
Shelton argues that the US monetary system is unstable, inflationary and it erodes purchasing power.
Shelton says a new bond with a link to gold would restore trust.” https://www.zerohedge.com/
"Terrorists", like "antisemites" are whoever we say: Israeli bill proposing death penalty for ‘terrorists’ clears first parliamentary vote https://www.france24.com/en/
Israeli soldiers have revealed that they were allowed to shoot freely at their own discretion in Gaza, exposing a disregard for the laws of war in a new documentary set to air on UK public television Monday night.
The film, “Breaking Ranks: Inside Israel’s War,” offers rare firsthand testimonies from Israel Defense Forces soldiers who describe lawless combat during the Gaza conflict...
..Daniel said claims such as those by Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who declared “an entire nation out there that is responsible” for the Oct. 7 attacks, seeped into soldiers’ minds. “You hear that all the time, so you start to believe it.”The film, “Breaking Ranks: Inside Israel’s War,” offers rare firsthand testimonies from Israel Defense Forces soldiers who describe lawless combat during the Gaza conflict...
Maj. Neta Caspin, another officer, revealed military rabbis propagated genocidal mindsets, giving religious justification for mass demolitions.
“One time, the brigade rabbi sat down next to me and spent half an hour explaining why we must be just like they were on Oct. 7,” he said. https://www.arabnews.com/
IDF soldiers tell how they use teenage Palestinians as human shields in Gaza and have left the enclave a ‘zombie apocalypse’
During that time, they said commanding officers told them to ignore international law, use civilians, including teenagers, as human shields, celebrate drone strikes and “take revenge on them all”. https://www.independent.co.
Palestinian Commission of Detainees Affairs says detainees were punished with solitary confinement, beatings, and electric shocks. https://www.trtworld.com/
Haaretz, West Bank Violence Isn't Mere 'Friction' but One-sided Settler Pogroms Against Palestinians
The IDF, as the sovereign in the occupied territories, must protect all victims of violence, including Palestinians, from Jewish terror. Government backing of rioters does not absolve the army of this duty https://archive.li/TBD5F#
The IDF, as the sovereign in the occupied territories, must protect all victims of violence, including Palestinians, from Jewish terror. Government backing of rioters does not absolve the army of this duty https://archive.li/TBD5F#
Umm Shukry inspects her olive trees one by one, just as she did every year for a decade. But this olive harvest season is different. Nearly all her trees are damaged; their branches bare and brittle.
Examining each limb, she feels exhausted with sorrow. “I am suffocated. I am suffocated from seeing my hard work turn out like this,” she told CNN. “I used to spend so much time here under the scorching heat, taking care of them… we’ve had this land for over 50 years.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/
Examining each limb, she feels exhausted with sorrow. “I am suffocated. I am suffocated from seeing my hard work turn out like this,” she told CNN. “I used to spend so much time here under the scorching heat, taking care of them… we’ve had this land for over 50 years.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/
'There's no reason not to have border crossings opened' amid ceasefire, says spokesperson https://www.aa.com.tr/en/
There is an Israeli-military half and a Palestinian half now: Partition of Gaza a looming risk as Trump's plan falters
Israel has reinforced its withdrawal line with yellow cement blocks and fortifications. With talks stalled, the “yellow line” may mark a new de facto border. https://www.newarab.com/news/Israel, US reach deal to exile 200 Hamas fighters trapped in Rafah: Report - There was no immediate comment from US, Israel, or Hamas on report https://www.aa.com.tr/en/
Macron warns Israel that any form of annexation of West Bank 'red line,' vows strong response with European partners if plans proceed https://www.aa.com.tr/en/
Building on lessons learned from the 12-Day War, Iran is working to be ready to overwhelm Israeli defenses in a future conflict.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials have told Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, that “missile factories are working 24 hours a day,” The New York Times reported. Vaez added that if there is another war, “they hope to fire 2,000 at once to overwhelm Israeli defenses, not 500 over 12 days” as they did in June. “Israel feels the job is unfinished and sees no reason not to resume the conflict, so Iran is doubling down preparedness for the next round.” https://www.twz.com/news-
In the first 6 minutes Alex Krainer describes the split in the American electorate, which no longer wholly supports Israel, after the horrors of genocide for 2 years. This may give Trump leeway to not jump in on Israel's behalf if Israel atacks Iran again. Trump Is Turning On Israel — And They Do Not Like It | Alex Krainer https://www.youtube.com/
Since CEO David Ellison took over, several senior staff have been dismissed for opposing the genocide in Gaza, with sources saying the studio now refuses to work with artists it considers 'hostile to Israeli interests' https://thecradle.co/
The sadistic (per Virginia Giuffre) former Israeli Prime Minister, Corporate Media Silent as Epstein–Barak Emails Indicate Mossad Connection https://israelpalestinenews.
Trump proposed redirecting massive subsidies away from wealthy insurance companies and straight into the pockets of everyday people.
“I am calling today for insurance companies NOT to be paid. But for this massive amount of money be paid DIRECTLY to the people so they can buy their own healthcare!” Trump stated. https://www.zerohedge.com/ Brian Berletic, US Plans for China Blockade Continue Taking Shape
In 2018, the US Naval War College Review published a paper titled, “A Maritime Oil Blockade Against China—Tactically Tempting But Strategically Flawed.” It was only one of many over the preceding years discussing the details of implementing a maritime blockade as part of a larger encirclement and containment strategy of China.At first glance the paper looks like US policy thinking considered, then moved past the idea of blockading China. Instead, the paper merely listed a number of obstacles impeding such a strategy in 2018—obstacles that would need to be removed if such a strategy were to be viable in the near or intermediate future—and obstacles US policymakers have been removing ever since.
More contemporary papers published, including those among the pages of the US Naval Institute, have updated and refined not just an emerging strategy to theoretically confront and contain China, but a plan of action taking tangible shape...
..To understand Washington’s strategy toward China, one should not look to the political rhetoric of “retreat” or “homeland defense” in the Western Hemisphere, but rather to the tangible actions taking place across the Asia-Pacific and beyond—the meticulous encirclement of China’s periphery, the sustained attacks on its critical overland energy and trade links (BRI/CPEC), the calculated incapacitation of Russia as a potential energy supplier, and the establishment of local proxy forces (the Philippines, Japan, separatists on Taiwan) prepared to wage war.
Far from an abstract or “flawed” concept relegated to think-tank papers, the maritime oil blockade—or wider general blockade against China—is being incrementally prepared in real-time. By systematically removing the very obstacles noted in the 2018 Naval War College Review paper, the US is demonstrating a clear, unwavering commitment to a multi-layered strategy of containment, coercion, and confrontation designed not just to prepare for conflict, but to make that conflict both inevitable and successful for the singular goal of maintaining global American hegemony. https://www.asia-China’s mask slipped again when one of its diplomats openly threatened to behead Japan’s new prime minister for warning that a blockade of Taiwan would endanger Japan—turning a blunt truth into a flashpoint that edges Asia closer to war. https://rairfoundation.com/
Chinese: Moonshot's Kimi K2 Thinking emerges as leading open source AI, outperforming GPT-5, Claude Sonnet 4.5 on key benchmarks https://venturebeat.com/ai/
Long range, loitering, "suicide drones" Russia Now Produces 6,000 War Drones Every Month with $20k to $70k Per Unit
What began as limited use of Iranian-supplied loitering munitions has now evolved into a vast, factory-driven campaign. Moscow is producing over 6,000 Shahed-type “Geran” drones every month, transforming the drone war into a high-volume, low-cost assault strategy designed to exhaust and overwhelm air defenses. https://www.thedefensenews.The United States spent $350 billion on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, President Donald Trump announced. Now, the American government is not spending money on this conflict, he stated. https://www-kommersant-ru.
The electricity is out, which was their responsibility: Ukraine Ruled By "Wartime Mafia Network" With "Countless Ties" To Zelensky: Viktor Orban https://www.zerohedge.com/
Chaos continues off the coast of Venezuela as U.S. administration refuses to name suspects killed in attacks https://www.independent.co.
The Ford carries more than 5,000 sailors and can host more than 75 aircraft, supported by guided-missile destroyers and escort warships.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government has mobilized militias, 8 million civilians and 60,000 Army and National Guard members, with Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino saying, `The aggression will be responded to with national unity`
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government has mobilized militias, 8 million civilians and 60,000 Army and National Guard members, with Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino saying, `The aggression will be responded to with national unity`
On Friday, the Trump Administration began contacting the scores of Republicans still facing criminal charges in a handful of blue states for their service as alternative electors — or connection to the alternative electors — conveying the president’s decision to pardon them. https://thefederalist.com/
“I don’t know what happened to Marjorie,” Trump said at the White House. “She’s a nice woman, but I don’t know what happened. She’s lost her way, I think.”
He added a moment later:
“So when somebody like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who’s now catering to the other side—I don’t know what, you know, I guess she’s got some kind of an act going—but I’m surprised at her. But when somebody like Marjorie goes over and starts making statements like that, it shows she doesn’t know.” https://www.mediaite.com/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-snaps-back-at-trump-after-he-disses-her-in-oval-office-presser-i-havent-lost-my-way/
Careful Hormone Replacement Therapy starting at Menopause is mostly-good again, like it used to be. There are many considerations. Provera is still bad. FDA Reverses Decades-Old Warning on Hormone Therapy Products for Menopause https://ground.news/article/fda-reverses-decades-old-warning-on-hormone-therapy-products-for-menopause_bd0b5b
A Midwestern Doctor, What They Never Tell Us About Salt - Why natural salt is essential for health
For 50 years, medicine has waged a misguided war against critical sources of health like salt and sunlight while avoiding discussing the real causes of diseases. Because of this, the dangers of salt are relentlessly focused on despite evidence not supporting them. In parallel, the extreme dangers of consuming too little salt are rarely discussed in the medical field—despite dangerously low sodium being one of the most common conditions seen in hospitalized patients, and chronically low sodium greatly increasing one’s risk of dying.
The war against salt originated from the belief salt raises blood pressure—despite the evidence showing it doesn’t.
Many of the foundational beliefs around high blood pressure are not supported by the existing data, leading to situations where patients are routinely medicated to blood pressures far below what is safe, significantly reducing their quality of life and increasing their risk of severe injuries or death.
Salt restriction creates many similar complications to dangerously low blood pressures (e.g., fatigue, lightheadedness, erectile dysfunction). Because of this, many find their health and energy dramatically improves once they start consuming healthy salts.
This article will cover some of the key dangers associated with salt restriction and strategies for locating the healthiest natural salts.
Many medical policies are driven more by profit than by evidence of what truly benefits patients. Because of this, we frequently see medicine refuse to ever discuss the things that are making us sick (e.g., numerous studies show vaccines make children 2-10X more likely to develop chronic illnesses that are now widespread) while in tandem, we are relentlessly pressured to put all focus onto a few things which do not make enough money for lobbyists to defend them. https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/what-they-never-tell-us-about-salt
John Leake, How Did Moderna's 2016 Patented Gene Sequence Turn Up in SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 Virus)?
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel, the Wuhan Lab, a critical gene patent, and the U.S. government's curious lack of interest in what appears to be a smoking gun. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/how-did-modernas-2016-patented-gene This was a horror-show. I always advised pregnant patients against "vaccination".. Celia Farber, : Preview For Upcoming Podcast: Dr. James Thorp, On The Greatest Catastrophe Of Obstetrical Medicine: mRNA For Pregnant Women
Dr. Thorp And I Co Wrote The Book: "Sacrifice: How The Deadliest Vaccine In History Targeted The Most Vulnerable" https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/preview-for-upcoming-podcast-dr-james"Don't Worry. Be Happy". Just "don't ask; don't tell". EPA proposes exemptions for ‘forever chemical’ reporting requirements https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5599330-epa-pfas-forever-chemicals/
Dane Wigington GeoengineeringWatch.org “The government has finally admitted that chemtrails are real. It’s called geoengineering and it’s far worse than anything you imagined. Dane Wigington explains.” Tucker Carlson. My deepest thanks to Tucker Carlson for his exceptional courage in addressing the most dire and immediate threats we collectively face with climate engineering at the top of the list. https://geoengineeringwatch.org/tucker-carlson-covers-geoengineering/
A few minutes about this week's solar storms: FULL Solar Storm Recap, What the Micronova Looks Like | S0 News Nov.13.2025 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_T5oV7Q2jMo
The Gulf-Stream/AMOC has been weakening for decades. Climate scientists claim Gulf Stream could be near collapse — predicting a new ice age
Per the new findings, the at-risk current in question is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, a “conveyor belt of the ocean” that funnels warm water toward the ocean surface from the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere. This current, which includes the Gulf Stream that runs from the Gulf of Mexico to the US East Coast and across the Atlantic to Europe, helps maintain the mild climate of Europe, the UK and the US East Coast...
..The presence of the marine hot pocket appears to suggest that the current slowdown has been occurring for decades and could foment a total decline before the end of the century, per the study...
..By examining observational data dating back to 1960, the research team discovered that the mid-depth warming trend that spiked in the late 2000s, indicating that the AMOC’s decline began in the late 20th century...
..Should the AMOC slow down too much, they claim, it could have significant ramifications. These include the extreme suggestion that temperatures across Europe to drop by nearly 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
“Winters would be more typical of Arctic Canada and precipitation would decrease, also,” Jonathan Bamber, a professor of Earth observation at the University of Bristol, told the Daily Mail.
Coincidentally, the last time the AMOC collapsed was before the last Ice Age that ended about 12,000 years ago, Reuters reported. https://nypost.com/2025/11/12/science/gulf-stream-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn/
..Should the AMOC slow down too much, they claim, it could have significant ramifications. These include the extreme suggestion that temperatures across Europe to drop by nearly 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
“Winters would be more typical of Arctic Canada and precipitation would decrease, also,” Jonathan Bamber, a professor of Earth observation at the University of Bristol, told the Daily Mail.
Coincidentally, the last time the AMOC collapsed was before the last Ice Age that ended about 12,000 years ago, Reuters reported. https://nypost.com/2025/11/12/science/gulf-stream-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn/
Japan had a serious deforestation problem 300 years ago, a consequence of unsustainable forest use that had been building up for a long time (Totman 1989). As long ago as 600-850 AD, construction booms in Nara and Heian, along with demands of the ruling elite for timber to supply armies and build castles and religious monuments, had caused serious deforestation in the Kinai region. Forest use was “exploitative”. Timber and other forest products where taken without regard to replenishing the supply.
Villagers throughout Japan had depended for many centuries on a variety of non-timber forest products essential to their survival. https://ecotippingpoints.com/our-stories/indepth/japan-community-forest-management-silviculture/
The replanting after WW-2 replaced only 2 types of pine trees. Learning From the Past: Japan's tree-planting efforts provide lessons for other countries https://earthjournalism.net/stories/learning-from-the-past-japans-tree-planting-efforts-provide-lessons-for-other-countries
Ecosystem Manager (took this picture of Jenny with November tomatoes and garden transitioning for winter) 
