Anti-Imperialists,
Hubris is the tragic flaw, thinking that one can just power-through and bulldoze one's opposition by force of will and violence. Donald Trump was not that way in his first term, but somebody or something or both seem to have gotten to him this time around.
Trump can't bulldoze Iran, and Putin in Russia won't give him the win he needs either, quite the contrary. They are both bleeding his military supplies, which can't be replaced this year, and giving him nothing but impotent rage.
Will anybody give this narcissist an off-ramp before November? Iran won't. Iran is rubbing his face in it until he capitulates in humiliation, which he is not capable of. Iranians are snickering and turning the knife in the wound, because he more than deserves it.
Trump's buddies Xi and Putin are not giving him his off-ramp either. Xi is escalating, shipping a huge cache of modern weapons including high-grade MANPADs to Iran, which will keep American helicopters, and US Marines out, and may also be useful to Iraqi militias and Ansar-Allah if Iran shares.
Israel is lying low, letting Americans die for Israel. Americans have retreated to Jordan, Israel's "neighbor", and are getting pounded there by Iranian missiles.
What might come next? Might US forces retreat further to Israel, or just vacate the theater? Will Trump find an off-ramp that lets him abandon his Israeli masters to their inevitable doom? They certainly embody the most hubris of all players upon the global stage these days.
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-07-31
The big delta: an AI hedge fund detonated and got liquidated into Citadel, and the resulting 24-hour short-squeeze printed Microsoft's best day since 2008 (+16%) — even as the Fed held 9-3 and the long bond hiked for it, with the 30Y punching to 5.2%+, the highest since 2007. Iran's IRGC claimed three destroyed F-35s at a Jordan base and hit US installations across Kuwait and Bahrain while Trump reportedly "exploded" over the lack of a strategy. Continuation: Ukraine-Poland fallout, Ceuta migrant surge, Hormuz/oil squeeze, gold above $4k with physical tight. Situational Awareness blows up; Citadel scoops the book, sparks a 24h AI squeeze - Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI fund — ~$45B NAV on July 1, up 439% net through June — sold the bulk of its public equity portfolio to Ken Griffin's Citadel after levered AI bets collapsed (Kobeissi, GoshawkTrades). Assets said to have fallen to $10B, down from $45B in under a month (zerohedge).
Long AI infra, short software, ~4x leverage — both legs went against it in three weeks. Half its Anthropic stake also reportedly sold (MartinShkreli).
The liquidation lifted the tape: Citadel squeezing the names higher — $NBIS +26%, $IREN +26%, $SNDK +24%, $BE +24% (aleabitoreddit). Positioning went "panic to squeeze in less than 24 hours"...
Long AI infra, short software, ~4x leverage — both legs went against it in three weeks. Half its Anthropic stake also reportedly sold (MartinShkreli).
The liquidation lifted the tape: Citadel squeezing the names higher — $NBIS +26%, $IREN +26%, $SNDK +24%, $BE +24% (aleabitoreddit). Positioning went "panic to squeeze in less than 24 hours"...
..The contagion tail: ~$500B in TRS excess leverage still out there; at least 5 hedge funds with massive total-return-swap exposure to memory/momentum names — a "circular liquidation squad" ...
..The Fed held 9-3; the long bond hiked instead - FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% with three dissents for a hike (Cleveland, Minneapolis, Dallas) — the most hawkish split since 2016 — against 1.5% Q2 growth and 3.3% core PCE (shanaka86).
The 30Y ripped to 5.24%, a level last seen in 2007, as the market concluded the Fed is making "another huge policy error" (zerohedge)...
The 30Y ripped to 5.24%, a level last seen in 2007, as the market concluded the Fed is making "another huge policy error" (zerohedge)...
..Contrarian read on the driver: less about Warsh's dissents than the $95B supplemental with $75B earmarked for munitions — Treasury supply crowding out private AI borrowers (spomboy). JPMorgan flags Warsh's task forces as "covers to redefine the inflation challenge away" (jam_croissant). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-07-31
SPR fell to 307.7M barrels, lowest since 1983; weekly crude draw ~7.2M, SPR -5M, Cushing stuck at tank bottoms (steve_hanke, zerohedge). Diesel option volatility broke 200 (JustDario).
New vector: the US-owned FSRU Energos Winter caught fire after a suspected drone strike at Egypt's Damietta port — outside listed war-risk waters, and it was the import lifeline, not the export plant (shanaka86, dana916). Meanwhile Qatar sent its first LNG cargo through Hormuz in three weeks — using the Iran-designated corridor, transponder on (SStapczynski)...
I say in this first segment of today’s interview with News X World dealing with Iran’s claim to have destroyed 3 American F35s and damaged 3 more on the ground in Jordan none of us commentators knows for sure what losses each side in the conflict is experiencing due to the ‘fog of war.’ The fog of war is not a natural meteorological phenomenon but is rather severe war censorship imposed by the sides to keep their losses out of public view.
Per News X World, the only statement from the Jordanian authorities is that they shot down 5 Iranian missiles. Not a word of denial that some missiles got through and hit the US planes parked on the Jordanian air base. Accordingly, we may assume that the Iranian claim is justified.
Where is this war headed? Again no one can say with complete confidence. Yes, the U.S. is being humiliated not just by Iran enjoying economic leverage thanks to its control of the Strait of Hormuz but now also by signs that US military bases in Jordan and the Gulf States are coming under very effective attack from Iran. And yet, there always remains the nuclear option if President Trump is cornered and sees no other way out of this disaster of his own making. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/news-x-world-iran-hits-us-live-irgc
It was reported that the U.S. expended at least 10 Patriot missiles to take down some of the incoming Iranian ones.
Patriot missiles are down to some 800. Of the longer range THAAD, useless against drones, there are some 250 left to fire.
Another few dozen days of intense fire exchange will leave all U.S. bases in the Middle East unprotected.
After the strike U.S. President Trump pledged revenge:
President Trump was cited by Fox News as saying the U.S. would hit Iran hard in response to the attack. “They’re going to get a beating,” chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst early Wednesday quoted Trump as telling him.
Trump doesn’t learn. Iran will respond to any attack and the U.S. situation will worsen. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/07/war-on-iran-u-s-missile-defense-stock-is-severely-depleted.html
Iranian officials are also saying that US bombardment of Qeshm island has killed a family. In Qeshm island, the Director General of Crisis Management of the Hormozgan Governorate said search and rescue efforts are underway amid mounting casualties there.
"So far, two children have been pulled out from under the rubble and transferred to medical centers, and efforts are ongoing to rescue three other members of this family," Mehrdad Hassanzadeh said.
Stealthier, faster, deadlier: Iran unveils new suicide drone - IRGC’s jet-powered weapon poses fresh challenge to US forces in Middle East
Iranian press review: Iran relies on speedboats to keep Strait of Hormuz closed
Meanwhile, former IRGC navy chief calls for an end to the war with the US, students accuse Iranian embassy of working with Belarusian security services https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iranian-press-review-iran-relies-speedboats-keep-strait-hormuz-closed
What interests might be served? Why Ukraine’s Strike on Iranian Assets in the Caspian Sea Seeks to Ignite a World War
The US, Iran, and possibly also Russia appear to have calculated that it’s not in their interests, only in Ukraine’s and Israel’s.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi’s latest tweet came as a surprise. He wrote that he “Was assured by Ukrainian FM @andrii_sybiha that the attack on an Iranian ship was unintentional and Ukraine seeks no escalation. Iran does not seek escalation either, but made clear any attack on our citizens or interests is unacceptable. There must be restitution for losses.” This came two days after his prior tweet where he accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian at Israel’s behest. https://korybko.substack.com/p/whats-behind-the-mutual-iranian-ukrainian
Why Did Trump Just Give Saudi Arabia the Fast Track to a Nuclear Weapon?
Hamas slams Katz for his call to destroy another W. Bank refugee camp https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/07/28/367439/
'We're here to stay': West Bank Palestinians defy Israeli settler attacks
Settlers burned homes and a mosque in at-Tuwani. Residents say it is part of a campaign to push them off their land. https://www.vespernews.com/en/news/d4a816de-1eb2-49d4-ad85-7459310c1d71
Israel seizes 22 dunums of Palestinian land near Jenin https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/07/28/367434/
Brute-force approach: Israel Is Paying Millions to Train AI Chatbots How to Talk About Gaza. It's Working.
Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale is overseeing an operation posting hundreds of blog posts on behalf of Israel, with the goal of infiltrating artificial intelligence. https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israel-brad-parscale-ai-chatbots-gaza
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-07-30
The war came off pause hard: the US ran a night of airstrikes on southern Iran (Qeshm, Abadan, Sirik, Nurabad) after Iran hit a US base in Jordan, and Saudi-US strikes killed 20+ in Iraq — while Russia threw its largest Kh-101 barrage in over a year at Ukraine, with one cruise missile landing in Poland. Markets are the other front: Warsh delivered a hawkish 9-3 hold, the 30Y tore to a post-2007 high, Meta cratered on capex while the KOSPI kept printing history to the downside. Continuation but accelerating: oil supply tightening under a functionally closed Hormuz, AI credit spreads widening, gold sitting above $4,000. US strikes Iran overnight after Jordan base attack; residential areas hit. CENTCOM ran fighter-jet and ATACMS strikes (fired from Kuwait) against southern/western Iran, hitting Sirik, Nurabad and Qeshm (MenchOsint, zerohedge). Tasnim reported a residential area struck on Qeshm Island (zerohedge); a Tehran-side account says a father, mother and 2-year-old were killed there, two children wounded (Marandi). Trigger was an IRGC ballistic-missile attack on the US Muwaffaq Salti base in Jordan, all reportedly intercepted...
Sequence overnight: Iran fired ballistics at US forces in Jordan (6 Patriots launched in response), then CENTCOM struck back with jets and ATACMS from Kuwait (MenchOsint, MenchOsint). Additional strikes reported on Abadan and Piranshahr near the Erbil border (ejmalrai).
Saudi-US joint strikes pounded Iran-backed PMF in Iraq, killing 20+ (zerohedge); an Iraqi source puts it at 23 killed, 32 wounded (ejmalrai). Iraq's president rejected use of its territory and called the strikes a sovereignty violation (zerohedge). Iraqi resistance factions gave the government a one-week deadline (to Aug 6) on disarmament (MenchOsint).
The interceptor math is the story. CSIS estimates US Patriot inventory has fallen from 2,330 pre-war to under 830 (≥65% below February), THAAD ≥38% below (shanaka86). CENTCOM's Cooper reportedly pitched a 10-14 day campaign to reduce future interceptor demand; the Joint Chiefs' Caine warns the shortage argues against it (shanaka86). Lockheed just got a Patriot contract worth up to $58.6B to rebuild stockpiles (ILRedAlert). HIGH.
China set to deliver up to 400 shoulder-fired air-defense launchers (QW-12/FN-16, ~$60-70M) to Iran within weeks (zerohedge, MyLordBebo).
Iran rejected Oman's 50-50 Hormuz plan and asserted sole authority over "safe" transit lanes (shanaka86). Trump reportedly erupted at national-security officials who "can't agree on strategy" (FaytuksNetwork). A FOIA release put US troop casualties at 400+ in the first six weeks, with the official death toll quietly revised 18→14...
..The fiscal read: Treasury needs $671B of privately-held borrowing this quarter and dealers see a $1.3T funding gap across 2027-28 at current auction sizes... Sequence overnight: Iran fired ballistics at US forces in Jordan (6 Patriots launched in response), then CENTCOM struck back with jets and ATACMS from Kuwait (MenchOsint, MenchOsint). Additional strikes reported on Abadan and Piranshahr near the Erbil border (ejmalrai).
Saudi-US joint strikes pounded Iran-backed PMF in Iraq, killing 20+ (zerohedge); an Iraqi source puts it at 23 killed, 32 wounded (ejmalrai). Iraq's president rejected use of its territory and called the strikes a sovereignty violation (zerohedge). Iraqi resistance factions gave the government a one-week deadline (to Aug 6) on disarmament (MenchOsint).
The interceptor math is the story. CSIS estimates US Patriot inventory has fallen from 2,330 pre-war to under 830 (≥65% below February), THAAD ≥38% below (shanaka86). CENTCOM's Cooper reportedly pitched a 10-14 day campaign to reduce future interceptor demand; the Joint Chiefs' Caine warns the shortage argues against it (shanaka86). Lockheed just got a Patriot contract worth up to $58.6B to rebuild stockpiles (ILRedAlert). HIGH.
China set to deliver up to 400 shoulder-fired air-defense launchers (QW-12/FN-16, ~$60-70M) to Iran within weeks (zerohedge, MyLordBebo).
Iran rejected Oman's 50-50 Hormuz plan and asserted sole authority over "safe" transit lanes (shanaka86). Trump reportedly erupted at national-security officials who "can't agree on strategy" (FaytuksNetwork). A FOIA release put US troop casualties at 400+ in the first six weeks, with the official death toll quietly revised 18→14...
..Wrong-way risk in the open: Nvidia is reportedly in talks to guarantee ~$250B of OpenAI lease/debt so it can occupy a 10GW Ohio campus — against a disclosed guarantee book of just $3.5B (shanaka86). MSFT disclosed $329B of leases not yet commenced (zerohedge).
Credit is where it's cracking: JPM warns the next leg lower spreads beyond single stocks to indices, flagging circular financing and NVDA CDS widening as "more concerning" than hyperscaler CDS...
..Oil: Hormuz functionally closed, reserves draining, Mediterranean now a target - Roughly 8 commodity vessels crossed Hormuz Tuesday vs ~125/day pre-war; product tightness is masking a crude-supply shut-in as tankers can't load (HFI_Research). WTI spiked ~8% above $86 on Trump's "hitting them hard" (Hedgeye); Brent ~$91 (zerohedge). Credit is where it's cracking: JPM warns the next leg lower spreads beyond single stocks to indices, flagging circular financing and NVDA CDS widening as "more concerning" than hyperscaler CDS...
SPR fell to 307.7M barrels, lowest since 1983; weekly crude draw ~7.2M, SPR -5M, Cushing stuck at tank bottoms (steve_hanke, zerohedge). Diesel option volatility broke 200 (JustDario).
New vector: the US-owned FSRU Energos Winter caught fire after a suspected drone strike at Egypt's Damietta port — outside listed war-risk waters, and it was the import lifeline, not the export plant (shanaka86, dana916). Meanwhile Qatar sent its first LNG cargo through Hormuz in three weeks — using the Iran-designated corridor, transponder on (SStapczynski)...
..Russia-Ukraine: record air barrage, Poland impact, Odessa strangled - Russia hit Kyiv, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Kryvyi Rih and Odessa-region ports, targeting drone/missile production (Flamingo, Neptun) (MyLordBebo). Ukraine's Air Force claims interception of 54 of 61 cruise missiles and 265 of 284 drones, but only one of nine ballistics and none of four Zircons (MyLordBebo).
A Kh-101 impacted eastern Poland (~90 km from the border); Warsaw scrambled jets and called air alerts (AMK_Mapping).
Odessa blockade is costing Ukraine ~$70M/day in idle exports; three ports handle ~$70M/day and two-thirds of H1 exports went through Greater Odessa (MilitarySummary, KShevchenkoReal). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-07-30
A Kh-101 impacted eastern Poland (~90 km from the border); Warsaw scrambled jets and called air alerts (AMK_Mapping).
Odessa blockade is costing Ukraine ~$70M/day in idle exports; three ports handle ~$70M/day and two-thirds of H1 exports went through Greater Odessa (MilitarySummary, KShevchenkoReal). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-07-30
Gilbert Doctorow, News X World: IRAN HITS US LIVE: IRGC Claims Major Attack On U.S. Base, Jordan Intercepts Missiles
Per News X World, the only statement from the Jordanian authorities is that they shot down 5 Iranian missiles. Not a word of denial that some missiles got through and hit the US planes parked on the Jordanian air base. Accordingly, we may assume that the Iranian claim is justified.
Where is this war headed? Again no one can say with complete confidence. Yes, the U.S. is being humiliated not just by Iran enjoying economic leverage thanks to its control of the Strait of Hormuz but now also by signs that US military bases in Jordan and the Gulf States are coming under very effective attack from Iran. And yet, there always remains the nuclear option if President Trump is cornered and sees no other way out of this disaster of his own making. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/news-x-world-iran-hits-us-live-irgc
Moon of Alabama, July 29: War On Iran: – U.S.’ Missile Defense Stock Is Severely Depleted
Last night Iran fired some 6 older liquid-fuel missiles against U.S. positions in Jordan. The strike was probably a reply to U.S. and Saudi strikes on Iran friendly forces in Iraq. It was reported that the U.S. expended at least 10 Patriot missiles to take down some of the incoming Iranian ones.
Patriot missiles are down to some 800. Of the longer range THAAD, useless against drones, there are some 250 left to fire.
Another few dozen days of intense fire exchange will leave all U.S. bases in the Middle East unprotected.
After the strike U.S. President Trump pledged revenge:
President Trump was cited by Fox News as saying the U.S. would hit Iran hard in response to the attack. “They’re going to get a beating,” chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst early Wednesday quoted Trump as telling him.
Trump doesn’t learn. Iran will respond to any attack and the U.S. situation will worsen. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/07/war-on-iran-u-s-missile-defense-stock-is-severely-depleted.html
Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism presents the case that Iran will not let Trump out of this war until he is defeated: Iran War: Jordan Strike Shows Iran Intensifying War to Exhaust US Economy and Military; Trump Takes Bait by Retaliating https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/07/iran-war-jordan-strike-shows-iran-intensifying-war-to-exhaust-us-economy-and-military-trump-takes-bait-by-retaliating.html
July 30: IRGC Strikes Jordan Again After 2-Hour US Bombardment Kills Iranian Troops, Civilians - Hormuz Traffic Creeps Higher
"So far, two children have been pulled out from under the rubble and transferred to medical centers, and efforts are ongoing to rescue three other members of this family," Mehrdad Hassanzadeh said.
In response Iran says it has again targeted a US airbase in Jordan, and claims to have taken out three F-35 stealth fighters, though there's been no indication of this from the Pentagon side. According to details via Al Jazeera:
In a statement directed to Jordan, the IRGC says in response to a US attack on Qeshm island that killed two parents and their child, aerospace fighters targeted a ramp and maintenance shed at the al-Azraq airbase, which hosts US F-35 fighter jets, with several ballistic missiles, state news agency Fars reports.
The IRGC said that it had completely destroyed three F-35 aircraft and caused “heavy damage” to three others.
The IRGC stated that "A number of enemy officers and technical and maintenance personnel were also killed in this attack. Our region is no place for the infanticidal army that cruelly slaughters innocent families in the middle of the night while they sleep."
They added that the war will continue until "the last American occupier is expelled from the Islamic lands" and that Muslims in Jordan and the region want this too...
In a statement directed to Jordan, the IRGC says in response to a US attack on Qeshm island that killed two parents and their child, aerospace fighters targeted a ramp and maintenance shed at the al-Azraq airbase, which hosts US F-35 fighter jets, with several ballistic missiles, state news agency Fars reports.
The IRGC said that it had completely destroyed three F-35 aircraft and caused “heavy damage” to three others.
The IRGC stated that "A number of enemy officers and technical and maintenance personnel were also killed in this attack. Our region is no place for the infanticidal army that cruelly slaughters innocent families in the middle of the night while they sleep."
They added that the war will continue until "the last American occupier is expelled from the Islamic lands" and that Muslims in Jordan and the region want this too...
..NBC on Thursday cites that "The president is exasperated" citing a Trump ally. "I don’t think he believed it was going to be this difficult to get the Iranians to agree to a deal.” The source added "there was not a real strategy for how long or what they should do to get to the endpoint."...
..University of Chicago political scientist and foreign policy realist author Robert Pape that the war will stumble along and likely expand even through the midterms: "The victory rhetoric [from Trump] doesn't match escalation reality," he said. "It is out of sync." Then he emphasized: "I think it will actually be after the midterms," he said. "Between now and January, this is not going to be over." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/2-hour-us-bombardment-kills-iranian-troops-civilians-hormuz-traffic-creeps-higher-irgc
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, vowed to widen the war, and insisted it will not let Washington dictate the terms.
“We will not allow America to determine the timing of war and peace,” Esmail Baghaei, a foreign ministry spokesman, said, adding that Iran would “defend ourselves for as long as necessary”. https://archive.md/Vsa5c#selection-2265.4-2269.79
“We will not allow America to determine the timing of war and peace,” Esmail Baghaei, a foreign ministry spokesman, said, adding that Iran would “defend ourselves for as long as necessary”. https://archive.md/Vsa5c#selection-2265.4-2269.79
Meanwhile, former IRGC navy chief calls for an end to the war with the US, students accuse Iranian embassy of working with Belarusian security services https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iranian-press-review-iran-relies-speedboats-keep-strait-hormuz-closed
I heard about this last winter. These are excellent, small, heat-seeking missiles.China To Arm Iran With Hundreds Of MANPADS Despite Trump Warnings https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-arm-iran-hundreds-manpads-despite-trump-warnings-report
The recent Ukrainian strike on an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea marks a significant and potentially dangerous escalation in the geopolitical landscape, effectively merging the US proxy war in Eastern Europe with the other ongoing US conflict in the Middle East. This attack, which resulted in the death of a crew member and injured another, was quickly confirmed by Ukrainian officials who justified it as a legitimate strike on a vessel used for military logistics between Russia and Iran. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explained the attack within a broader narrative of an expanding threat, publicly alleging that Russia is providing crucial satellite intelligence to Iran (which Russia denies). This narrative was leveraged to argue that the conflicts are inextricably linked, with the stated goal of necessitating a unified international response against what was described as an axis of aggressors.
The geopolitical calculations behind Kyiv’s decision are complex, appearing to be a high-stakes gambit aimed at galvanizing its Western allies and pushing the US to make its war against a multipolar transition something more explicit. Some analysts posit that the move was designed to curry favor with the US administration by demonstrating Ukraine’s utility as a more aggressive partner, aligning with a strategy to escalate pressure on Iran and Russia simultaneously. Conversely, Iranian officials have offered a different interpretation, suggesting that the attack was instigated by Israel to draw Europe directly into the Middle Eastern conflict. https://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraine-strike-iranian-assets-caspian-sea-seeks-ignite-world-war/5934854
The geopolitical calculations behind Kyiv’s decision are complex, appearing to be a high-stakes gambit aimed at galvanizing its Western allies and pushing the US to make its war against a multipolar transition something more explicit. Some analysts posit that the move was designed to curry favor with the US administration by demonstrating Ukraine’s utility as a more aggressive partner, aligning with a strategy to escalate pressure on Iran and Russia simultaneously. Conversely, Iranian officials have offered a different interpretation, suggesting that the attack was instigated by Israel to draw Europe directly into the Middle Eastern conflict. https://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraine-strike-iranian-assets-caspian-sea-seeks-ignite-world-war/5934854
Andrew Korybko, July 29: What’s Behind The Mutual Iranian-Ukrainian De-Escalation?
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi’s latest tweet came as a surprise. He wrote that he “Was assured by Ukrainian FM @andrii_sybiha that the attack on an Iranian ship was unintentional and Ukraine seeks no escalation. Iran does not seek escalation either, but made clear any attack on our citizens or interests is unacceptable. There must be restitution for losses.” This came two days after his prior tweet where he accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian at Israel’s behest. https://korybko.substack.com/p/whats-behind-the-mutual-iranian-ukrainian
The U.S. has signed a landmark civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, allowing domestic uranium enrichment under U.S. oversight.
The agreement marks a significant departure from previous non-proliferation agreements such as the UAE's.
Critics warn the deal could accelerate Saudi Arabia's path toward nuclear weapons, especially given Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's past pledge to match Iran if it acquires a nuclear bomb. https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Why-Did-Trump-Just-Give-Saudi-Arabia-the-Fast-Track-to-a-Nuclear-Weapon.html
The agreement marks a significant departure from previous non-proliferation agreements such as the UAE's.
Critics warn the deal could accelerate Saudi Arabia's path toward nuclear weapons, especially given Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's past pledge to match Iran if it acquires a nuclear bomb. https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Why-Did-Trump-Just-Give-Saudi-Arabia-the-Fast-Track-to-a-Nuclear-Weapon.html
The jaws of death: Israel’s Yellow Line, a Shifting Edge of War Pushing Gazans from Home https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5300805-israel%E2%80%99s-yellow-line-shifting-edge-war-pushing-gazans-home
Settlers burned homes and a mosque in at-Tuwani. Residents say it is part of a campaign to push them off their land. https://www.vespernews.com/en/news/d4a816de-1eb2-49d4-ad85-7459310c1d71
He is accused of sexual assault by a female aide. ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan dared to hold Israel to account – that’s why he was brought down https://israelpalestinenews.org/icc-chief-prosecutor-karim-khan-dared-to-hold-israel-to-account-thats-why-he-was-brought-down/
Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale is overseeing an operation posting hundreds of blog posts on behalf of Israel, with the goal of infiltrating artificial intelligence. https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israel-brad-parscale-ai-chatbots-gaza
Helena Glass, America’s AI Action Plan: “AI is 99% about War. New Ways to Destroy Societies”. Whoever Has the Most Data Centers Wins https://www.globalresearch.ca/america-ai-action-plan-whoever-has-most-data-centers-wins/5934856
Waters told Tucker Carlson that witnessing Israeli apartheid in the occupied West Bank transformed his understanding of Palestine and led to two decades of activism despite sustained efforts to damage his career https://israelpalestinenews.org/hell-on-earth-roger-waters-on-palestine-apartheid-and-the-cost-of-speaking-out/
An intelligent human: ‘Hell on Earth’: Roger Waters on Palestine, Apartheid and the Cost of Speaking Out
I suspect that Russia has also waited for US/NATO to deplete weapons reserves: Gilbert Doctorow, Russia is on the rampage in Ukraine. Why did it take 4 years for the Kremlin ‘to get in the saddle’?
Finally, six or eight months ago, I saw that voices were being raised within Russia asking why Putin was dragging out the war. There was a sense that Russia had the wherewithal to strike hard and force a capitulation on the enemy but was for some reason continuing to fight with one hand tied behind its back.....Then the 40-day drone campaign announced by Zelensky took hold and created a crisis situation for the RF as a whole. The very destructive drone attacks on Russian energy and civilian infrastructure deep in the heartland of the Russian Federation resulted in the loss of perhaps 40% of refining capacity, leading to widespread fuel shortages, meaning rationing and long lines at gas pumps in much of the country. In Russia, as most everywhere, that is a politically sensitive issue. At the same time, Ukrainian precision drone strikes on residential buildings, buses and trains were causing daily civilian deaths in many different localities of European Russia...
..However, the last straw was probably the recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil carriers in the Azov and Black Seas. Defense of all Russian ‘shadow fleet’ traffic from Ukrainian attacks would become a monstrous and likely unachievable task for the Russian navy, just as it had become impossible to defend the refineries and oil export sites across Russia from swarming drone attacks.
The impact of these developments demanded change of course lest there be a threat to political stability in the country. This was all the more pressing given that elections for the State Duma are approaching – election day is set for 20 September...
The impact of these developments demanded change of course lest there be a threat to political stability in the country. This was all the more pressing given that elections for the State Duma are approaching – election day is set for 20 September...
..It now appears that in the past several weeks the Kremlin has indeed heeded public sentiment for pounding Ukraine into submission without delay using all the military force at its disposal. We heard that the tough, no nonsense General Sergey Surovikin whose defensive line successfully repelled the NATO backed Ukrainian counter offensive of 2023 has been recalled from his political exile in North Africa to participate, possibly to lead the change to a dynamic, brutal and massive Russian offensive. This has translated into utter destruction of Ukrainian port facilities and vessels, both container ships and bulk cargo ships, in Odessa and Nikolaev, on the Black Seas as well as Izmail on the Danube, opposite Romania. These measures were complemented by attacks on ships in the Black Sea en route to Ukraine or departing Ukraine. In effect, Russia has established an effective blockade of Ukraine...
..All of this brings us back to the initial question of why it took the Kremlin so long to change from a war of attrition strategy to a knock-out blow strategy. I am now coming around to the view that the answer lies not in the personality of the President but in the political forces that limit and perhaps even control his decisions on waging the war. I mean here the oligarchs who have imposed constraints on Vladimir Putin from the day he was advanced to the presidency by Boris Yeltsin more than 25 years ago...
..It has taken this long and this far into the loss of deterrence, meaning the loss of Russian sovereignty, for the oligarch insiders to be pushed from the feeding trough and for the Kremlin to see its survival in changing course on the war. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/russia-is-on-the-rampage-in-ukraine
..It has taken this long and this far into the loss of deterrence, meaning the loss of Russian sovereignty, for the oligarch insiders to be pushed from the feeding trough and for the Kremlin to see its survival in changing course on the war. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/russia-is-on-the-rampage-in-ukraine
It has become known how the EU “legitimizes” the seizure of ships and confiscation of cargo
[Sorry for AI dreck, but important topic] The End Of Freedom - The Last Breath Of A Dying Continent
Die Welt and other outlets broke a story about Chancellor Merz drawing up plans to isolate German states where AfD may win a majority in the future, so that Germany can retain its role as key central NATO transport hub in the war against Russia being stirred by European elites...
European bureaucrats resorted to a ruse and developed a mechanism that, in their view, would solve the problem of legitimizing such actions. The main thing was to obtain a pretext for seizing the ships, and they figured out how to do this.
Such vessels typically fly the flags of small third-world countries, which is how they profit. As soon as a vessel on the EU sanctions list enters waters near a European country, Brussels exerts powerful political pressure on Panama, Honduras, and other countries, resulting in the flag state registry immediately revoking its registration. Thus, the vessel loses its nationality, which is the basis for its arrest.
Located in the holds, on deck and in tanks The cargo is declared contraband, which entitles it to be confiscated and subsequently sold to the captive state. https://en.topwar.ru/287052-stalo-izvestno-kak-es-legitimiziruet-zahvat-sudov-i-konfiskaciju-gruzov.html
Such vessels typically fly the flags of small third-world countries, which is how they profit. As soon as a vessel on the EU sanctions list enters waters near a European country, Brussels exerts powerful political pressure on Panama, Honduras, and other countries, resulting in the flag state registry immediately revoking its registration. Thus, the vessel loses its nationality, which is the basis for its arrest.
Located in the holds, on deck and in tanks The cargo is declared contraband, which entitles it to be confiscated and subsequently sold to the captive state. https://en.topwar.ru/287052-stalo-izvestno-kak-es-legitimiziruet-zahvat-sudov-i-konfiskaciju-gruzov.html
In 2026, 333 million Europeans—more than the entire population of the United States—have fallen into energy poverty, a euphemism that cannot conceal the raw human suffering it describes, a bureaucratic term that sanitizes the screams of families watching their lives dismantled piece by piece.
Since 2021, utility costs have surged 47%, while wages stagnate in a cruel arithmetic that reduces families to penury. The numbers do not lie, even when governments do. Behind every percentage point stands a human being with a name, with memories, with children who ask why the heat does not work... In Greece, 40% of households now face the impossible choice between heating and eating ... Greek winter of 2026 brought temperatures that dropped to -8°C in regions where insulation remains a luxury...
Since 2021, utility costs have surged 47%, while wages stagnate in a cruel arithmetic that reduces families to penury. The numbers do not lie, even when governments do. Behind every percentage point stands a human being with a name, with memories, with children who ask why the heat does not work... In Greece, 40% of households now face the impossible choice between heating and eating ... Greek winter of 2026 brought temperatures that dropped to -8°C in regions where insulation remains a luxury...
..One in four European children now experiences food insecurity...
..Beneath the visible governance, a parallel architecture operates with mathematical precision that would impress any engineer. Digital ID systems have penetrated 89% of the population, harvesting biometric data at unprecedented velocity—fingerprints, iris patterns, facial geometry, gait analysis, voice signatures...
..The average European appears on surveillance cameras 300 times daily, a density of one lens per thirteen citizens that renders privacy obsolete, that ensures the watched internalize the gaze, that transforms free citizens into self-policing subjects who no longer require external control because they have built the prison within their own minds. Social credit architectures have advanced beyond theory into implementation; your carbon footprint, vaccination status, social media sentiment, and political expression now determine access to housing, travel, banking, and employment...
..In China, the system was explicit, overt, acknowledged. In Europe, it arrives wrapped in sustainability, in public health, in security, in the language of care and protection that disarms opposition because who can argue against safety, against health, against the planet https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/end-freedom-last-breath-dying-continent
Simplicius, Germany Draws Up "Secret Plans" to Hamstring AfD on Eve of State Elections
..Just like how the EU began studying ways to break its own “democratic” charter and allow initiatives to pass without the required unanimity all to bypass the intransigent positions of states like Hungary, now individual EU states themselves are figuring out ways to “bend” democratic processes to shackle and squelch their own individual federal regions. Of course, this is elementary at this point compared to the course of outright banning the AfD as Germany has been trying to do under “extremism” laws...
..Germany in particular has taken the lead in co-opting Ukraine’s rear because it provides them with an unexpected benefit: manufacturing jobs. The earlier NYT piece admits that most of the workers at the German Helsing factory building drones for Ukraine are all lay-offs from collapsing German auto production lines. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/germany-draws-up-secret-plans-to
DEI Is KILLING British Policing – Think-Tank EXPOSES The Truth - Hundreds of millions poured into anti-racism ideology while victims of knife crime are left to die under two-tier justice https://modernity.news/2026/07/29/dei-is-killing-british-policing-think-tank-exposes-the-truth/
Germany’s Migrant Crime Crisis EXPLODES - Of the 1,087 suspects identified in 751 recorded gang rapes last year, 53 percent were foreign nationals.
Non-Germans make up less than 17 percent of the population. The 772 victims were overwhelmingly German: 619 of them, or 80 percent, including 565 women. https://modernity.news/2026/07/29/germanys-migrant-crime-crisis-explodes/
John Cleese: "Some Cultures Are Better Than Others" - "I am not a racist. I am a culturalist," he stated in a post that now has over ten million views, adding "I believe that some cultures are better than others. I prefer cultures that do not advocate stoning, pederasty, wife beating, female genital mutilation, and beheading opponents. Call me old-fashioned..." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/john-cleese-some-cultures-are-better-others
America’s Murder Problem Is Smaller Than It Looks
Alberta independence petition exceeds signatures needed to proceed
Elections Alberta verified that 223,000 citizens have signed a petition to hold a vote on separation from Canada, but a legal challenge is pending. https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/alberta-independence-petition-exceeds-signatures-needed-to-proceed/
So because those prices went up, they booked the difference as “profit”.
Everybody knows the unnamed one is Anthropic. Alphabet won’t say it, much like any dabbler in the ways of magic won’t say Voldemort.
And yeah, this part I can report with a bit of glee: $21.9 billion of that gain went out as cash. You can book a rocket at whatever fictional price you like, but the tax man always gets his due.
Real, hard cash, wired-to-the-Treasury cash, levied on money that does not exist even yet...
South Korea Has Several Market Rescue Options As Crash Crushes 700,000 Retailer Traders https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/south-korea-has-several-market-rescue-options-crash-crushes-700000-retailer-traders
CNN Poll: Americans doubt Trump is paying enough attention to the country’s most important problems
Distant adult-male foreigners with very different customs, many with war trauma, were invited and paid to enter European countries by European political elites.
Non-Germans make up less than 17 percent of the population. The 772 victims were overwhelmingly German: 619 of them, or 80 percent, including 565 women. https://modernity.news/2026/07/29/germanys-migrant-crime-crisis-explodes/
Does the United States have a higher murder rate than its peer countries? Yes – but new research shows that statistic obscures how murders in the U.S. are extremely concentrated in very tiny areas.
In 2025, the U.S. murder rate fell to just under 4 murders per 100,000 people. During the first six months of 2026, data compiled by the Council on Criminal Justice shows that murders in the nation’s 30 largest cities declined by another 18%. If that decline reflects the national trend, and that is likely, the U.S. murder rate will fall to approximately 3.25 per 100,000 people this year.
Even at that level, the U.S. murder rate would remain about 70% higher than Canada’s 2024 homicide rate of 1.91 per 100,000 people and Australia's approximately 2 per 100,000.
Nevertheless, the United States has recently made remarkable progress. Since national recordkeeping began in 1900, the country has never recorded a murder rate this low... In 2025, the U.S. murder rate fell to just under 4 murders per 100,000 people. During the first six months of 2026, data compiled by the Council on Criminal Justice shows that murders in the nation’s 30 largest cities declined by another 18%. If that decline reflects the national trend, and that is likely, the U.S. murder rate will fall to approximately 3.25 per 100,000 people this year.
Even at that level, the U.S. murder rate would remain about 70% higher than Canada’s 2024 homicide rate of 1.91 per 100,000 people and Australia's approximately 2 per 100,000.
..The Crime Prevention Research Center, which I head, finds that 31 counties with the highest murder rates – just 1% of all U.S. counties – contain about 20% of the nation’s population but account for 41% of all murders. Expanding the analysis to the 63 highest-rate counties (2% of counties) captures 30% of the population but 54% of all murders...
..Roughly two-thirds of all murders in the worst 2% of the counties occur within about ten-block neighborhoods, whose populations represent only a tiny fraction of their counties’ residents. Much of this violence is associated with street gangs and repeat offenders...
..Research has consistently shown that 5% of the criminals account for most crime. Marvin Wolfgang’s landmark Philadelphia birth cohort studies found that roughly 6-8% of offenders accounted for the majority of serious violent crime, including about 71% of murders, 73% of rapes, 82% of robberies, and 69% of aggravated assaults.....Who commits murders also differs dramatically across demographic groups. In 2020, black men made up about 6.0% of the U.S. population but accounted for 49.7% of known murder offenders – about 8.3 times their share of the population. Black women accounted for 5.5% of murder offenders while making up 6.43% of the population, or about 0.85 times their population share.
By comparison, white men (including Hispanics) comprised 30.3% of the population but 35.7% of murder offenders. White women accounted for just 6.1% of murder offenders despite making up 31.3% of the U.S. population. Asian men and women had the lowest rates of murder offending, accounting for only 0.43 times and 0.06 times, respectively, their shares of the U.S. population. Many look at these numbers and say this proves the criminal justice system is racist. Many Democrats think the share of blacks in prison shouldn’t exceed their share of the population ... The problem is that these discussions ignore the race of the victims. Ninety percent of black murder victims are murdered by other blacks. If you make it so there is little or no penalty for murdering blacks, you ensure that more blacks will be murdered. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/07/29/americas_murder_problem_is_smaller_than_it_looks_154377.html
Elections Alberta verified that 223,000 citizens have signed a petition to hold a vote on separation from Canada, but a legal challenge is pending. https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/alberta-independence-petition-exceeds-signatures-needed-to-proceed/
Gold & Geopolitics, Weekend at Alphabet’s - A record quarter, propped up and waving
Alphabet owns a bunch of stocks in other small and mostly insignificant companies that absolutely have not much free float but are part of the Nasdaq index nevertheless. Names like SpaceX. And then there’s that one tastefully unnamed private company. So because those prices went up, they booked the difference as “profit”.
Everybody knows the unnamed one is Anthropic. Alphabet won’t say it, much like any dabbler in the ways of magic won’t say Voldemort.
And yeah, this part I can report with a bit of glee: $21.9 billion of that gain went out as cash. You can book a rocket at whatever fictional price you like, but the tax man always gets his due.
Real, hard cash, wired-to-the-Treasury cash, levied on money that does not exist even yet...
..In Korea you have ?had? the Mag2, in the US you have the Mag7. You have leverage at both sides - which I reckon is now a bit less now in the former.
Korea went from ATH into a bear market in about two sessions and it is still going down (full disclosure: I am still short Korea). Bloomberg says there’s a sixty-day correlation between the KOSPI and the Nasdaq 100. They said that when it’s climbing. Didn’t hear it lately, which is kind of peculiar. Or worrying.
Every element of that setup exists in the US too. But of course, the US does everything BIGGER and BETTER.
So… margin debt is at a record $1.5 trillion, up 49% in twelve months...
And the last few weeks, stocks started trembling.
In about a week from now, the biggest IPO of our times (or of ANY time for that matter), these locked-up shares can get sold.
I’m not saying it’ll crash tomorrow. Not even the day after. But maybe in a week we’ll see some real fireworks. https://no01.substack.com/p/weekend-at-alphabets
Korea went from ATH into a bear market in about two sessions and it is still going down (full disclosure: I am still short Korea). Bloomberg says there’s a sixty-day correlation between the KOSPI and the Nasdaq 100. They said that when it’s climbing. Didn’t hear it lately, which is kind of peculiar. Or worrying.
Every element of that setup exists in the US too. But of course, the US does everything BIGGER and BETTER.
So… margin debt is at a record $1.5 trillion, up 49% in twelve months...
..Korea’s version of “this time it’s different” was launching single-stock leveraged ETFs on the two companies holding up the index. The US’s is booking a rocket’s paper valuation as national corporate profit...
..The US needs to refinance about 30% of their debt, THIS year alone. AI needs a lot of money for fast depreciating GPUs and their companies are not profitable (hence Nvidia is bankrolling the whole AI space - I’m sure it’s purely selfless and not to collapse the house of cards). And the last few weeks, stocks started trembling.
In about a week from now, the biggest IPO of our times (or of ANY time for that matter), these locked-up shares can get sold.
I’m not saying it’ll crash tomorrow. Not even the day after. But maybe in a week we’ll see some real fireworks. https://no01.substack.com/p/weekend-at-alphabets
A record-high 73% of US adults say that President Donald Trump hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds, with just 27% saying he’s had the right priorities.
That comes amid increasingly bleak views of the Iran war, stagnating economic unhappiness, and broad discontent about Trump’s approach to these challenges.
Roughly two-thirds of Americans think that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions and that his military decisions in Iran have hurt the US. Around three-quarters say the president is not in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/29/politics/cnn-poll-donald-trump-midterms-polls-iran-war?cid=ios_app
That comes amid increasingly bleak views of the Iran war, stagnating economic unhappiness, and broad discontent about Trump’s approach to these challenges.
Roughly two-thirds of Americans think that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions and that his military decisions in Iran have hurt the US. Around three-quarters say the president is not in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/29/politics/cnn-poll-donald-trump-midterms-polls-iran-war?cid=ios_app
Celia Farber, A Terrible Day For Anthony Fauci: Solid Humiliation, Gagged By Lawyers, Unable To Fauci-Spin It, Looked Grey, Hands Shaking, Invoked 5th Amendment Clear Through - His Foes Spoke To The American People https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/a-terrible-day-for-anthony-fauci
A Midwestern Doctor, What Fauci’s Diary Reveals About America’s Health Care Apparatus
Numerous lines of evidence show Fauci lied to us about the pandemic's biggest questions — origins, severity, lockdowns, and masks — all of which was just exposed at an explosive hearing. Yesterday, a rather contentious hearing occurred where Fauci was subpoenaed by the Senate to testify over what happened during COVID, which was immediately preceded by the private diaries (which HHS Secretary RFK Jr. team found sequestered on government HHS servers) being released to the public.
The hearing (after opening statements), began with Fauci giving a statement claiming he had been a dutiful servant helping the government for decades, that he was facing a malicious prosecution that put science itself at risk, and that he would be invoking his 5th amendment rights. Following this, Democrat members of the committee repeated this message, while Republican senators gave scathing criticisms of his conduct throughout the pandemic (eclipsing everything we’ve seen thus far), and Fauci, over a hundred times, in response to each question stating: "On the advice of counsel, I respectfully declined to answer based upon my rights under the Fifth Amendment to the Constitution." https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/what-faucis-diary-reveals-about-americas
The Contempt Vote They Scheduled Before Fauci Left the Hearing Room, W. Campbell Douglass, MD https://dutytodissent.substack.com/p/the-contempt-vote-they-scheduled
Watching today’s Senate hearing, I cannot rid myself of the perception that it is a distraction from documentary evidence of malfeasance, fraud, mass negligent homicide, and murder. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/fauci-inquisition-is-distraction
The hearing (after opening statements), began with Fauci giving a statement claiming he had been a dutiful servant helping the government for decades, that he was facing a malicious prosecution that put science itself at risk, and that he would be invoking his 5th amendment rights. Following this, Democrat members of the committee repeated this message, while Republican senators gave scathing criticisms of his conduct throughout the pandemic (eclipsing everything we’ve seen thus far), and Fauci, over a hundred times, in response to each question stating: "On the advice of counsel, I respectfully declined to answer based upon my rights under the Fifth Amendment to the Constitution." https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/what-faucis-diary-reveals-about-americas
John Leake, President Biden's Preemptive Pardon of Fauci - Beginning of pardon period precisely coincides with NIH review of Ralph Baric and Peter Daszak's proposal for NIH grant “Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence” https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/president-bidens-preemptive-pardon
Meryl Nass MD, Fauci is being called back by Aug. 14 by the HSG Subcommittee on Investigations, chaired by Ron Johnson.
And Aaron Siri's thoughts (and mine) on Fauci's pleading the 5th https://merylnass.substack.com/p/fauci-is-being-called-back-by-aug Fauci can't ever talk or he'll be Arkancided in his car. John Leake, Fauci Inquisition is Distraction from the Documents of Malfeasance and Crime
Peter McCullough MD, BREAKING--Pericardial Effusions Skyrocketed During Pandemic
Salvucci et al. drop a bombshell: subclinical myopericarditis surged with vaccination rollout, peaking in 2022 https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-pericardial-effusions-skyrocketed Pierre Kory MD tells 3 important stories here: Professor Paul Marik Identified The Cure for Sepsis. I Watched Medicine Bury It.
Becoming Paul Marik's close colleague was the most inspiring turn my career ever took, until the same partnership got us both excommunicated from academic medicine and ended his career at the bedside. https://pierrekorymedicalmusings.com/p/professor-paul-marik-identified-the
Becoming Paul Marik's close colleague was the most inspiring turn my career ever took, until the same partnership got us both excommunicated from academic medicine and ended his career at the bedside. https://pierrekorymedicalmusings.com/p/professor-paul-marik-identified-the
Paul Marik MD on Sabine Hazan MD's work: The Gut Microbiome and Cancer: What This New Study Tells Us—and Why It Matters - Summary of Hazan et al., 2026 https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/the-gut-microbiome-and-cancer-what
Dr. Marian Laderoute explains how a special function of the nasorespiratory branch of the immune system gets hijacked by mRNA vaccine-products to make others sick from "shedding": Further substantiation that injury by shedding (bioweaponized HERV-K102) occurred - New data from Dr. Avindra Nath’s research group of the NIH mentioned in the Fauci diary. https://hervk102.substack.com/p/further-substantiation-that-injury
Immunocompetent (pictured this morning with thriving okra plants)
