Witnesses,
Alex Krainer, The fall of Europe and its geostrategic implications - Today in Istanbul, Vladimir Putin’s special envoy said that future cooperation between Russia and the US (and other nations) will be “glorious.”
It seems that the French government is caught in something of a perfect storm surging both from the bottom-up and from the top-down: while the struggling French people are increasingly restless and ready to pour into the streets and protest, global capital markets have been exerting pressure on France’s dismal finances. Just in the past ten months, the interest rate on French government bonds soared by nearly 40%.....By now, interest rate on the 10-year French government bonds rose to 4.935%. But unlike in the United States, French stocks went nowhere and may have entered into a bear market. With both bond prices and stock prices collapsing, the value of collateral in the banking system is melting away in a self-stoking cycle and no end in sight.
In France, government spending represents nearly 57% of the GDP... At €3.6 trillion, France’s public debt is just short of 120% of the GDP...
..There can be little doubt that the festering, escalating financial crisis will have very substantial geostrategic consequences. At some point, the Unity of the combined West, centered on our “shared values” will begin to disintegrate and individual nations will move to mitigate the crisis at home, regardless of how this could impact their allies by shared values.In France, government spending represents nearly 57% of the GDP... At €3.6 trillion, France’s public debt is just short of 120% of the GDP...
In fact, we are well past that point; the perfect example is President Trump’s recent “Diesel Deal” with Russia’s President Putin. That deal is also an example of the United States’ capability to manage the crisis and and engineer a soft(er) landing for itself by managing its fiscal crisis. Other examples include the American leverage over other nations in the Western hemisphere, which are being turned, one by one, into colonial outposts of Wall Street banks.
Regardless of the ethical ramifications of those arrangements, it is securing new collateral as well as future demand for US dollars for the bankers who issue it. That will mitigate US financial crisis, at least marginally. Manwhile, the Europeans are well and thoroughly stuck. In only a few years, they’ve managed to largely destroy, not only their industrial base and energy production, but also their relationships with Russia, China, Iran, Arab nations, much of the Global South, and the United States.
The only front where they still have considerable leverage is against their own people where regulation, censorship and repression are growing worse with each passing day, so we get demonstrations and riots. At the same time, they are trying hard to convince the white, Christian part of that population, that doing their “duty” and sacrificing themselves and their children in a war against Russia is right and necessary in order for us to protect our countries and our way of life.
By now, however, a large segment of that same population no longer care to preserve that way of life and, the crisis is only going from bad to worse, which is why most observers expect that things will continue down that same path. Inability and unwillingness to solve very much of anything leaves war as the only pressure-release valve available to the authorities. Even on that front, Europe is finding itself isolated. Our designated enemy, Russia, understands the score well enough and is happy to play ball with the United States in order to try to forge a more cooperative, more constructive relationship going forward. Among the American officials, it seems that more and more of them are prepared to kick the Russophobia and get on with business...
..This brings us back to the fate of Russia’s frozen assets in Western jurisdictions. The amount in question is estimated at $300 to $335 billion. Most of these assets by far are held in Europe: the largest portion is managed by Belgium-based Euroclear central securities depository, which holds around $190 to $208 billion. France holds up to $71 billion in Russian Central Bank assets, but the suspicion is that Macron government already helped themselves to much of that money. According to more recent figures, only about $25.6 billion of the Russian money remains in French custody. The UK holds about $37 billion of Russian assets. At the same time, the US portion is estimated at only $5 billion to $8 billion, primarily in debt securities and cash...
..Russia is unlikely to see the return of those assets any time soon, but both the Kremlin and their American counterparts might have their own reasons to transfer the totality of those assets to US custody.....For the collateral starved British financial system, this could prove catastrophic. The same is true for Europe: Emmanuel Macron‘s dream of using $260 billion in frozen Russian assets as collateral for reconstruction investments was also meant to underpin a large-scale credit impulse in Europe. The reconstruction [of Ukraine] was meant to be financed by European banks and the contracts awarded to European corporations. Unfortunately, none of that will be possible without strong backing by the United States...
..Just today, on the first day of the XIX Verona Eurasian Economic Forum in Istanbul, Mr. Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of Russian Direct Investment Fund and Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy for investment and economic cooperation spoke about the economic cooperation between Russia and the United States being the foundation of the dialogue and development of the relationship between the two powers.
He also spoke that this cooperation will exert further pressure on European governments: when they see Russia and the United States engage in a mutually beneficial, constructive cooperation, the Europeans will not want to be left behind. In time, they will have to sober up and come to the negotiating table. The ever optimistic Mr. Dmitriev chose the term, “glorious” to describe the ultimate results of that cooperation...
..Well, getting the Europeans to sober up will be a different challenge, and removing the punchbowl might require the transfer of Russia’s frozen asset to US custody. If (when) that happens, the EU will sustain a crippling financial blow.....Just today, on the first day of the XIX Verona Eurasian Economic Forum in Istanbul, Mr. Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of Russian Direct Investment Fund and Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy for investment and economic cooperation spoke about the economic cooperation between Russia and the United States being the foundation of the dialogue and development of the relationship between the two powers.
He also spoke that this cooperation will exert further pressure on European governments: when they see Russia and the United States engage in a mutually beneficial, constructive cooperation, the Europeans will not want to be left behind. In time, they will have to sober up and come to the negotiating table. The ever optimistic Mr. Dmitriev chose the term, “glorious” to describe the ultimate results of that cooperation...
..Mired in political paralysis, facing unsolvable economic crises and squeezed between the Russia it alienated and a hostile United States, Europe will have to make peace with the fact that after many centuries, the world is no longer Euro-centric and that they’ll have to learn to treat other players on the global scene as their equals. https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/the-fall-of-europe-and-its-geostrategic
This is unusually clear analysis from official-Russia. The view from Russia: The Ukraine conflict is entering its final phase
As Washington shifts the Ukraine burden to Europe, Andrey Sushentsov examines the EU’s strategic limits and its costly confrontation with Russia His interview, first published in Russian by TASS, was translated and edited by the RT team.
Andrey Sushentsov: The US strategy in the Ukrainian crisis initially reflected its archetype as a maritime power employing a “continental sword” in its confrontation with a major continental power. This involves a neighboring country with military resources, which the maritime power supports in order to weaken its rival.
Ukraine was well suited to this role, as a large state with substantial armed forces, motivated to confront Russia. But the limitation of such a strategy is that you can’t fully control the behavior of the “sword.” Nor is it entirely resource-efficient, there’s a limit to the resources that can be allocated to it, and if no turning point is reached in the confrontation, further support yields no additional gains in effectiveness.
The Americans realized early on that many of their interests in this crisis had been achieved and prepared to withdraw. They did what a maritime power usually does when it decides to turn its attention elsewhere as they sailed back to their own region. The main difference between a maritime power and a continental power lies in the freedom to choose where to deploy military forces. A maritime power can choose where to deploy them and launch strikes across various parts of the world’s oceans. This is usually carried out in the form of raids, as large-scale expeditionary campaigns rarely prove successful. The US decided it was time to leave...
..There are increasingly insistent calls for the Ukrainian leadership to take a realistic view of the situation and understand what is achievable and what is not. The “pyramid of trust” is crumbling. One after another, the parties involved are adopting an increasingly detached stance on this issue. Ukraine was well suited to this role, as a large state with substantial armed forces, motivated to confront Russia. But the limitation of such a strategy is that you can’t fully control the behavior of the “sword.” Nor is it entirely resource-efficient, there’s a limit to the resources that can be allocated to it, and if no turning point is reached in the confrontation, further support yields no additional gains in effectiveness.
The Americans realized early on that many of their interests in this crisis had been achieved and prepared to withdraw. They did what a maritime power usually does when it decides to turn its attention elsewhere as they sailed back to their own region. The main difference between a maritime power and a continental power lies in the freedom to choose where to deploy military forces. A maritime power can choose where to deploy them and launch strikes across various parts of the world’s oceans. This is usually carried out in the form of raids, as large-scale expeditionary campaigns rarely prove successful. The US decided it was time to leave...
Their primary and secondary hopes have not been realized. Now they are almost left high and dry. We must admit, it was a mistake.
No one wants to take responsibility for it. It has not only a political but also a financial dimension. Who should be held to account for the hundreds of billions of euros spent on a strategically futile venture that has antagonized Russia and undermined security on the continent?
That is why we are talking about a short-term historical perspective. It may come to an end in the coming months, or perhaps in the coming years. But we are not talking about a decade-long war. The point is that this will still remain a crisis with its own distinct phases, and we are currently in the final phase of its resolution. https://web.archive.org/web/20261022200944/https://rt-english.com/news/647500-ukraine-conflict-final-stage/
Gilbert Doctorow, News X World: on continuing military operations while peace talks are being prepared
The Russians, sometimes citing Napoleon, insisted that there can be a cessation of hostilities only after the sides agree on the terms of the permanent peace which will be signed. What makes this time different is that the Russians believe, with reason, that they are close to demolishing Ukraine, to ending the viability of Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities, so that a peace is close at hand and will be realized only if Kiev remains under fire. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/news-x-world-on-continuing-military
“This technical thread suggests (explains) that the entire Starlink/shield slowdown issue is not a consequence of a political decision in the US or by Musk but the result of Ukrainian engineers hacking the system to bypass it’s controls and do something they are not permitted to do – and when Starlink took steps to prevent the bypassing and ensure the controls remained effective, suddenly the system stopped working in ‘bypass mode’ – and Zelensky then set out to politicise matters. The explanation makes the bits of the puzzle fit together and fits with the New York Times article in which Ukrainians explained that although the system is formally limited to 100 mph they have managed to exceed it.” https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/10/23/elon-musk-pushes-back-against-ukraine-narrative-with-some-uncomfortable-true-statements/#more-288181
Simplicius has pics of circuit boards and details. Ukraine Starlink Mystery Finally Solved as Musk Comes Clean https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraine-starlink-mystery-finally#poll-1592768
Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan Officials In Tehran For Last-Ditch Diplomacy, As US Prepares 96-Hour Strike Window https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mecca-pact-officials-tehran-last-ditch-diplomacy-us-prepares-96-hour-strike-window
Sunday's elections and a run of government flights into Tehran drove most of the moves. Lula won Brazil's runoff from behind after a court added two hours of voting, and Brazilian stocks fell about 20% overnight.
The Comoros-flagged Khoryv capsized off Constanta, Romania, after a drone strike: one sailor dead, three missing.
The greater Odesa ports handled fewer than 10 ships last month, against about 400 in July.
Russian Geran-4 jet drones hit five more dry-cargo ships (AMK_Mapping_).
Strike war: Russia's defence ministry claims 290 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones shot down overnight over 15 regions plus Moscow (MilitarySummary).
Ukrainian Storm Shadow missiles hit Oryol's Kh-101 plant and Yelets two days running, and Omsk is burning 2,600km from the front (MilitarySummary).
Epicentr hypermarkets in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia and Poltava were destroyed (RWApodcast).
About 150 more Russian drones are staged in Crimea and Oryol for strikes on Lviv, Rivne and Lutsk (MilitarySummary).
Russia is putting anti-drone netting over its energy sites, which does not suggest a winter energy ceasefire (bayraktar_1love, franktianxie).
Diplomacy: Zelensky rules out limits on Ukraine's army and neutrality, and says territory can only be discussed between leaders: "all of this can be discussed in November" (talkrealopinion).
He wants Russia to stop striking energy and shipping (via TheApeOfGoldST).
Talks are fixed for Nov 4, after the US midterms and the Oleshky truce (MilitarySummary).
Kremlin spokesman Peskov says Russia would welcome an EU envoy (RT_Russia_).
The 2023 draft: Ukrainian MP Goncharenko confirms the plan leaked to the FT, which Zelensky turned down (MyLordBebo, I_Katchanovski, berlinerzeitung). It included: Russian withdrawal from most of the four oblasts, with a line close to that of Feb 24, 2022.
Ukrainian recognition of Russian control (not sovereignty) over Crimea, and a land corridor to Crimea built by Russia.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant handed back, and $300bn of frozen Russian assets used for reconstruction.
Goncharenko names Abramovich as a key figure.
Starlink: Ukrainian troops report losing the link above about 161 km/h (The Independent via GeromanAT). Starlink hardware has been recovered from Ukrainian attack drones (MenchOsint).
Front line: Russia claims Obshchee in Zaporizhzhia (GudadzeLevan), described as tightening the ring around Orikhiv (GeromanAT).
Russian gains are also reported in Moskovka, north-west of Kupiansk (Suriyakmaps), and across most of Nova Kozacha (Suriyakmaps)...
Russia secretly financed Alaska gas project
Riddle said he discovered that Novatek was already financing the project and directing its operations before the necessary approvals had been obtained. He resigned...
EU Climbs Escalation Ladder With Beijing, Plans Wider Curbs On Chinese Imports
Gold & Geopolitica, Daily digest: 2026-10-26
Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish security chiefs flew into Tehran while Trump declared another no-strike day. Israel votes tomorrow, with its army chief reportedly refusing Netanyahu's Iran order, and Musk said the quiet part out loud about neocloud credit. The Houthi-Saudi fighting, the Russia-Ukraine strike war and gloom over gold are continuing stories with fresh numbers.
Brazil: Lula re-elected 51.8% to 48.2%; Brazil ETF (EWZ) -19.6% overnight; Flavio Bolsonaro seeks annulment over a court-ordered two-hour voting extension. Sources: GudadzeLevan, Barchart, KobeissiLetter, zerohedge.
Tehran: Saudi defence minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin meet Iran's leaders today. It is the first high-level contact between the Mecca Pact states and Iran. Sources: MenchOsint, wmiddelkoop, MilitarySummary, AJArabic...
..Israel: a day before the vote, IDF chief Zamir resists Netanyahu's Iran order; Trump endorses Netanyahu twice
12+ sources (Times of Israel, Army Radio, Channel 13 relays, prediction markets, Israeli reporters).
The army versus the prime minister: The Times of Israel reports an "unprecedented confrontation": the IDF chief is resisting military action on Iran that Netanyahu ordered (TimesofIsrael).
Per Channel 13, Netanyahu wants a strike before the election and Zamir is demanding evidence and a justification (via Marwa__Osman).
Army Radio says commanders have repeatedly told the government there is no justification for an urgent strike that could put Tuesday's vote at risk (ILRedAlert). They also warn that public threats could provoke Iran (ILRedAlert).
Netanyahu: He cites intelligence that Iran and its proxies may attack to disrupt the election and promises "disproportionate" blows (via SeosQuinn).
He then posted an image of a mushroom cloud over a city skyline (NewsWire_US).
Eisenkot's reply: "Israel's security is not a political tool... the State of Israel is not his personal property" (Worldsource24).
Trump: a second endorsement of Netanyahu. Kobeissi calls it the first time a US president has publicly backed a candidate in an Israeli election (KobeissiLetter).
Odds and seat counts: The prediction markets differ: Polymarket has Eisenkot at 52% (Polymarket), Kalshi at 48% (DarioCpx).
The polls also differ: Channels 12 and 13 and Kan give Netanyahu's bloc 50 seats, Channel 14 gives it 62. A majority is 61.
The outgoing government stays in place until a new one forms, and postponing the vote would need 80 lawmakers (shanaka86).
Iran's stockpile: Barak Ravid writes that Iran still holds 450kg of uranium enriched to 60%, untouched in the last war (BarakRavid).
The West Bank: After the attack in Hebron, the IDF ordered well over 20,000 Palestinians out of the al-Jalda and Ein Dir Baha neighbourhoods with no return date and began demolitions.
It also cordoned off Hebron, a city of 200,000+, and announced a siege of Hebron and Halhul (via wmiddelkoop).
Ami Dar, writing from Israel, says domestic coverage of it is "basically zero" (AmiDar)...
Tehran: Saudi defence minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin meet Iran's leaders today. It is the first high-level contact between the Mecca Pact states and Iran. Sources: MenchOsint, wmiddelkoop, MilitarySummary, AJArabic...
..Israel: a day before the vote, IDF chief Zamir resists Netanyahu's Iran order; Trump endorses Netanyahu twice
12+ sources (Times of Israel, Army Radio, Channel 13 relays, prediction markets, Israeli reporters).
The army versus the prime minister: The Times of Israel reports an "unprecedented confrontation": the IDF chief is resisting military action on Iran that Netanyahu ordered (TimesofIsrael).
Per Channel 13, Netanyahu wants a strike before the election and Zamir is demanding evidence and a justification (via Marwa__Osman).
Army Radio says commanders have repeatedly told the government there is no justification for an urgent strike that could put Tuesday's vote at risk (ILRedAlert). They also warn that public threats could provoke Iran (ILRedAlert).
Netanyahu: He cites intelligence that Iran and its proxies may attack to disrupt the election and promises "disproportionate" blows (via SeosQuinn).
He then posted an image of a mushroom cloud over a city skyline (NewsWire_US).
Eisenkot's reply: "Israel's security is not a political tool... the State of Israel is not his personal property" (Worldsource24).
Trump: a second endorsement of Netanyahu. Kobeissi calls it the first time a US president has publicly backed a candidate in an Israeli election (KobeissiLetter).
Odds and seat counts: The prediction markets differ: Polymarket has Eisenkot at 52% (Polymarket), Kalshi at 48% (DarioCpx).
The polls also differ: Channels 12 and 13 and Kan give Netanyahu's bloc 50 seats, Channel 14 gives it 62. A majority is 61.
The outgoing government stays in place until a new one forms, and postponing the vote would need 80 lawmakers (shanaka86).
Iran's stockpile: Barak Ravid writes that Iran still holds 450kg of uranium enriched to 60%, untouched in the last war (BarakRavid).
The West Bank: After the attack in Hebron, the IDF ordered well over 20,000 Palestinians out of the al-Jalda and Ein Dir Baha neighbourhoods with no return date and began demolitions.
It also cordoned off Hebron, a city of 200,000+, and announced a siege of Hebron and Halhul (via wmiddelkoop).
Ami Dar, writing from Israel, says domestic coverage of it is "basically zero" (AmiDar)...
..Houthis say they hit Riyadh airport and pumping stations on the East-West pipeline, the Saudi route that bypasses Hormuz. No Saudi confirmation. Sources: MenchOsint, chigrl, bonzerbarry...
..Interceptor costs: about 10 cheap Badr-1P rockets fired at Abha may have cost the Saudis an estimated 30-40 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors (MenchOsint).
Saudi casualties: per the WSJ, Saudi officers were running the Al-Alam camp and were killed when it was hit. More were killed or wounded in Aden (via bonzerbarry).
Civilian toll in Yemen: Saudi airstrikes killed 21 and wounded 30 in 24 hours across five areas. Per the Sanaa government's figures, all were civilians, mostly women and children.
They include siblings aged 10 and 16 in Sanaa, eight people in housing for cement-factory families in Hamdan, a mother and three daughters in Taiz, and an Ethiopian migrant at a shelter in Saada (DropSiteNews). Pope Leo called for the violence to end (Reuters).
Oil routes: From the second half of 2027, Saudi crude will be stored 150m under Singapore's Jurong Island, about 9M barrels, as backup for supply disruptions (shanaka86, chigrl)...
..No fertilizer through Hormuz in September or October. Before the war, about 20% of the world's traded nitrogen fertilizer went through the strait, and the Gulf supplies about half of traded sulfur. Sulfur has doubled to over $1,000/t, phosphate is up 25-30%, Mosaic has idled two Louisiana plants, and India's fertilizer subsidy could pass ₹3T against ₹1.71T budgeted (jackprandelli)... Saudi casualties: per the WSJ, Saudi officers were running the Al-Alam camp and were killed when it was hit. More were killed or wounded in Aden (via bonzerbarry).
Civilian toll in Yemen: Saudi airstrikes killed 21 and wounded 30 in 24 hours across five areas. Per the Sanaa government's figures, all were civilians, mostly women and children.
They include siblings aged 10 and 16 in Sanaa, eight people in housing for cement-factory families in Hamdan, a mother and three daughters in Taiz, and an Ethiopian migrant at a shelter in Saada (DropSiteNews). Pope Leo called for the violence to end (Reuters).
Oil routes: From the second half of 2027, Saudi crude will be stored 150m under Singapore's Jurong Island, about 9M barrels, as backup for supply disruptions (shanaka86, chigrl)...
..Russia-Ukraine: the Black Sea passes Hormuz as the deadliest sea lane (570+ ships hit, 40+ sailors killed); the 2023 peace draft resurfaces; talks set for Nov 4 - Black Sea (FT via clashreport): More than 570 vessels struck and at least 40 sailors killed this year, against 24 killed in Hormuz.
About 387 ships were hit between July and September. Ambrey attributes about 90% of attacks in the last 45 days to Russia.The Comoros-flagged Khoryv capsized off Constanta, Romania, after a drone strike: one sailor dead, three missing.
The greater Odesa ports handled fewer than 10 ships last month, against about 400 in July.
Russian Geran-4 jet drones hit five more dry-cargo ships (AMK_Mapping_).
Strike war: Russia's defence ministry claims 290 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones shot down overnight over 15 regions plus Moscow (MilitarySummary).
Ukrainian Storm Shadow missiles hit Oryol's Kh-101 plant and Yelets two days running, and Omsk is burning 2,600km from the front (MilitarySummary).
Epicentr hypermarkets in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia and Poltava were destroyed (RWApodcast).
About 150 more Russian drones are staged in Crimea and Oryol for strikes on Lviv, Rivne and Lutsk (MilitarySummary).
Russia is putting anti-drone netting over its energy sites, which does not suggest a winter energy ceasefire (bayraktar_1love, franktianxie).
Diplomacy: Zelensky rules out limits on Ukraine's army and neutrality, and says territory can only be discussed between leaders: "all of this can be discussed in November" (talkrealopinion).
He wants Russia to stop striking energy and shipping (via TheApeOfGoldST).
Talks are fixed for Nov 4, after the US midterms and the Oleshky truce (MilitarySummary).
Kremlin spokesman Peskov says Russia would welcome an EU envoy (RT_Russia_).
The 2023 draft: Ukrainian MP Goncharenko confirms the plan leaked to the FT, which Zelensky turned down (MyLordBebo, I_Katchanovski, berlinerzeitung). It included: Russian withdrawal from most of the four oblasts, with a line close to that of Feb 24, 2022.
Ukrainian recognition of Russian control (not sovereignty) over Crimea, and a land corridor to Crimea built by Russia.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant handed back, and $300bn of frozen Russian assets used for reconstruction.
Goncharenko names Abramovich as a key figure.
Starlink: Ukrainian troops report losing the link above about 161 km/h (The Independent via GeromanAT). Starlink hardware has been recovered from Ukrainian attack drones (MenchOsint).
Front line: Russia claims Obshchee in Zaporizhzhia (GudadzeLevan), described as tightening the ring around Orikhiv (GeromanAT).
Russian gains are also reported in Moskovka, north-west of Kupiansk (Suriyakmaps), and across most of Nova Kozacha (Suriyakmaps)...
..Musk: debt markets have "almost entirely shut off" companies whose revenue depends on AI data centers. Yields on CCC-rated junk bonds are at 18.0%, the highest since 2020. Sources: KobeissiLetter, shanaka86, GeromanAT, https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-10-26
Trump's "maybe tomorrow" has effectively voided his written promise not to strike Iran before the midterms, and the George Washington is loading bunker busters. Tehran has offered, via Pakistan, to reopen Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade, and NYT sources say it is getting ready to target US diplomats.
Trump says the US will "take care of Cuba" after Iran (zerohedge).
Rubio invited Cubans into "a discrete partnership with the CIA", and the CIA reposted contact instructions (FWarweg)...
Raids hit at least 15 towns, a three-storey building was demolished, and hundreds of families were ordered out, per Al Jazeera (GeromanAT).
Defence Minister Katz himself says about 2,000 Palestinians were displaced in Hebron (ShibleyTelhami).
Elsewhere: A huge blast between Taybeh and Qantara in southern Lebanon (SweeneySteve).
Netanyahu warns the Palestinian Authority of a "big surprise" (Nostre_damus).
Iranian MP Azizi posted a map of Israel's desalination plants, power plants, refineries and the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, saying "uninhabitable in under an hour" (RyanRozbiani)...
Kyiv hired Rothschild & Co to sell its state stakes in Ukrgasbank and Sense Bank, with a success fee of up to 3%. The hryvnia is at a record low of 45.20/$ (WiretapMediaCa).
EU envoy: Stubb is the favourite per Berliner Zeitung (GeromanAT). Meloni has also been floated (colonelhomsi). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-10-25
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-10-25
The Houthis meanwhile hit Saudi Arabia's Hormuz bypass (the East-West pipeline, Yanbu, Rabigh) and a spill of Saudi crude shut UAE beaches. Metals, France and the AI hangover are mostly continuation. Watching: futures reopen tonight, Israel votes and the Oleshky truce starts on Tuesday, and FOMC, ECB, BoJ, GDP, PCE and MSFT/GOOGL earnings all land this week (DarioCpx)...
..Obama says Iran is "in a stronger strategic position now than before the war started" (disclosetv), and that it now has "veto power" over Hormuz (SilverSurfer_23). Trump says the US will "take care of Cuba" after Iran (zerohedge).
Rubio invited Cubans into "a discrete partnership with the CIA", and the CIA reposted contact instructions (FWarweg)...
..Riyadh airport: - King Khalid was due to restart limited operations Sunday Oct 25, after two weeks closed to commercial flights (MenchOsint).
Ansarallah repeated its warning to airlines that the airport is a military target (MenchOsint).
By Sunday morning there was a ballistic missile at Riyadh, a cruise missile at Khamis Mushait, and the airport was "still closed" (MenchOsint).
Ansarallah repeated its warning to airlines that the airport is a military target (MenchOsint).
By Sunday morning there was a ballistic missile at Riyadh, a cruise missile at Khamis Mushait, and the airport was "still closed" (MenchOsint).
Interceptor math: Reuters reported in May that Saudi Arabia used about 86% of its 2,800 PAC-3s in the first 38 days of the Iran war (MenchOsint)...
..Netanyahu's claim: "Iran has restarted its nuclear program, and it wants to destroy us within a short time". IDF chief Zamir has warned that restarting the war this close to Tuesday would force the vote to be postponed indefinitely (HormuzLetter)...
Asked about a joint plan with the US: "I will not comment on this plan" (Sprinter_Press).
Odds: A prediction-market card shows Eisenkot 51%, Netanyahu 28% on $52M volume (DarioCpx). Middelkoop expects Netanyahu to lose over the Oct 7 inquiry (wmiddelkoop).
Per Mario Nawfal: about 100,000 rallied in Hostages Square for the inquiry Netanyahu has blocked for three years...
West Bank: A full lockdown followed the killing of two IDF soldiers (zerohedge). Asked about a joint plan with the US: "I will not comment on this plan" (Sprinter_Press).
Odds: A prediction-market card shows Eisenkot 51%, Netanyahu 28% on $52M volume (DarioCpx). Middelkoop expects Netanyahu to lose over the Oct 7 inquiry (wmiddelkoop).
Per Mario Nawfal: about 100,000 rallied in Hostages Square for the inquiry Netanyahu has blocked for three years...
Raids hit at least 15 towns, a three-storey building was demolished, and hundreds of families were ordered out, per Al Jazeera (GeromanAT).
Defence Minister Katz himself says about 2,000 Palestinians were displaced in Hebron (ShibleyTelhami).
Elsewhere: A huge blast between Taybeh and Qantara in southern Lebanon (SweeneySteve).
Netanyahu warns the Palestinian Authority of a "big surprise" (Nostre_damus).
Iranian MP Azizi posted a map of Israel's desalination plants, power plants, refineries and the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, saying "uninhabitable in under an hour" (RyanRozbiani)...
..Starlink and the CIA: Musk admits SpaceX throttled Starlink in Ukraine over terms-of-service violations (zerohedge; simpatico771).
The Atlantic: the CIA still supplies deep-strike targeting, "much more aggressive" than under Biden according to a Baltic officer (OlgaBazova)....
Money: FT: Russia's Novatek secretly funded and steered a proposed $25bn Alaska LNG venture. The US and Russia discussed an Alaska terminal in exchange for lifting sanctions on Arctic LNG 2. The CEO and most of the executive team quit in September (MilitarySummary).The Atlantic: the CIA still supplies deep-strike targeting, "much more aggressive" than under Biden according to a Baltic officer (OlgaBazova)....
Kyiv hired Rothschild & Co to sell its state stakes in Ukrgasbank and Sense Bank, with a success fee of up to 3%. The hryvnia is at a record low of 45.20/$ (WiretapMediaCa).
EU envoy: Stubb is the favourite per Berliner Zeitung (GeromanAT). Meloni has also been floated (colonelhomsi). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-10-25
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-10-24
Hormuz went hot again. The IRGC claims two VLCCs were hit and abandoned, a spill from an attacked tanker shut UAE beaches, and Brent ran to $116-118, all on the same day Bessent announced that Gulf exports had passed pre-war levels. Trump said both "no attack before the midterms" and "another little Epic Fury" in one news cycle, Washington is moving diplomats out of Gulf posts, and gold still lost $4,000 for the first time since July. The rest is continuation: Taiz/Lahij grinding on, AI deleveraging spreading into credit, France bracing for a second Saturday. [90% more peaceful, it turned out.] https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-10-24Gilbert Doctorow, Let's talk money: why upper middle class Russians support Vladimir Putin and the United Russia Party https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/lets-talk-money-why-upper-middle
Andrew Korybko, The Five Most Promising Russian-US Economic Opportunities
Although Putin might agree to some trade-offs in Ukraine as the quid pro quo for these deals, it’s not guaranteed, but they can still be clinched so long as Trump has the will to waive more sanctions without a ceasefire first. Putin’s top aide Yury Ushakov confirmed after Steve Witkoff’s latest meeting with Putin that “Other large-scale joint economic projects, which offer significant prospects for bilateral cooperation, were also discussed in detail; some of them are now nearing the implementation stage.”...
..Here are the five most promising joint opportunities:
Oil & Gas: US stakes in Russia’s energy infrastructure and companies can incentivize it to get the EU to return Russia’s frozen assets through the sequence proposed here. They’d also serve as security guarantees against Ukrainian attacks on pain of the US cutting Ukraine off if it attacks assets in which Trump personally obtained stakes for the US. A separate injection of US capital into Russia’s energy industry as the new “deal of the century” can reshape the global industry by reducing dependence on the Gulf.
Critical Minerals: Russia’s globally significant critical mineral deposits remain woefully underexploited, but with US stakes in this industry through the abovementioned sequence and separate capital injections, it can be brought online relatively quickly for accelerating the US’ diversification from dependence on China.....Data Centers: Per Dmitriev’s recent disclosure, talks on nuclear-powered data centers represent another promising opportunity for both countries...
..Power Plants: Critical mineral processing facilities and data centers can also be powered by hydroelectric dams, not just nuclear power plants, and the US can obtain stakes in all four – the facilities, centers, dams, and plants – through the return of Russia’s frozen EU assets as proposed.....International Logistics: The mineral deposits in which the US recently invested in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan can reach jointly owned processing facilities in Russia through the Trans-Siberian Railway and then onward to the global market. The same goes for the US’ related investments in similarly landlocked Mongolia. https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-five-most-promising-russian-us
Almost the entire management team of the US$25 billion US gas project Polar Train LNG has left the company following allegations of undisclosed financing and control by Russia's Novatek...
..Polar Train LNG is developing a gas export terminal in northern Alaska. The project was launched in March with a plan to use a partially constructed Novatek terminal and relocate it to Alaska. The company applied to the US Treasury Department for permission to negotiate with the Russian group but has yet to receive approval. Riddle said he discovered that Novatek was already financing the project and directing its operations before the necessary approvals had been obtained. He resigned...
..Polar LNG said Riddle had been dismissed, described him as a "disgruntled employee" and stressed that it was developing the project in compliance with US law.
Novatek said it had agreed to grant Tech Wave the right to use its technology in Alaska and had signed a memorandum with Polar Train in April, when Riddle was still running the company.
According to people who spoke to the FT, the project had featured in talks between Washington and Moscow over business deals that could help bring an end to Russia's war against Ukraine. The discussions included a potential exchange under which Novatek would provide its expertise for the construction of the Alaska terminal in return for sanctions being lifted on Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project. https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/russia-secretly-financed-alaska-gas-110000505.html?guccounter=1
Novatek said it had agreed to grant Tech Wave the right to use its technology in Alaska and had signed a memorandum with Polar Train in April, when Riddle was still running the company.
According to people who spoke to the FT, the project had featured in talks between Washington and Moscow over business deals that could help bring an end to Russia's war against Ukraine. The discussions included a potential exchange under which Novatek would provide its expertise for the construction of the Alaska terminal in return for sanctions being lifted on Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project. https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/russia-secretly-financed-alaska-gas-110000505.html?guccounter=1
The push to curb cheap Chinese imports suggests Brussels is scrambling for political survival, as Nomura analysts recently said elections across the continent over the next year and a half are expected to shift right.
Bloomberg reports that the EU is preparing restrictions on imports of chemicals, furniture, and machinery from China, expanding efforts to shield domestic manufacturers and narrow the massive trade deficit with China, which stands at $404 billion. The report cited people familiar with the matter...
..The proposed safeguards build on earlier news that Brussels aims to implement the Chinese hybrid vehicle cap in December to shield the EU's crumbling automotive industry, as cheap overseas cars gain market share and leave domestic companies like VW laying off tens of thousands of workers.
Brussels has finally chosen to move up the "escalation ladder" with China, risking retaliation from Beijing as its own political power appears to be eroding across Europe after decades of backfiring globalist policies that have left the continent with a hollowed-out industrial base... Bloomberg reports that the EU is preparing restrictions on imports of chemicals, furniture, and machinery from China, expanding efforts to shield domestic manufacturers and narrow the massive trade deficit with China, which stands at $404 billion. The report cited people familiar with the matter...
..The proposed safeguards build on earlier news that Brussels aims to implement the Chinese hybrid vehicle cap in December to shield the EU's crumbling automotive industry, as cheap overseas cars gain market share and leave domestic companies like VW laying off tens of thousands of workers.
..So far Brussels is willing to raise tariffs and cap imports. But the higher it climbs up the escalation ladder, the greater the risk that Beijing pulls the rare earth supplies, starving the very factories European elites are scrambling to save. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-climbs-escalation-ladder-beijing-plans-wider-curbs-chinese-imports
At least 160 Israeli settler attacks in 2 weeks https://israelpalestinenews.org/at-least-160-israeli-settler-attacks-in-2-weeks/
Israeli Forces Kill Girl, Bomb Civilian Vehicles and Demolish Gaza Homes https://www.palestinechronicle.com/israeli-forces-kill-girl-bomb-civilian-vehicles-and-demolish-gaza-homes/
Ben-Gvir arms more West Bank settlers ahead of Israeli elections - Israel's Ben-Gvir has expanded gun permit eligibility to 11 more West Bank settlements as security officials warn of escalating settler violence after elections https://www.newarab.com/news/ben-gvir-arms-more-west-bank-settlers-ahead-israeli-elections
23 Palestinians Detained in West Bank Raids as Illegal Settlers Assault Residents https://www.palestinechronicle.com/23-palestinians-detained-in-west-bank-raids-as-illegal-settlers-assault-residents/
Tied up and tortured: Israel using US-made electroshock weapons on Palestinian detainees - Investigation suggests American company Axon still supplies Israel with Taser weapons despite evidence they have been used to torture prisoners https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/oct/22/israel-us-made-electroshock-weapons-palestinian-detainees-axon-taser
The Israel Lobby’s Changing Fortunes
Gaza health ministry: 10,899 Palestinian women of reproductive age killed in 2025 https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/10/22/372422/
Gaza Hospitals Near Power Failure as Hunger and Poverty Deepen https://www.palestinechronicle.com/gaza-hospitals-near-power-failure-as-hunger-and-poverty-deepen/
Heidi Levine recounts how Palestinian youths helped save her in settler attack
Without the protective gear, “I probably would have been dead,” Levine said, pointing out that Palestinians do not have such protection, and more than 20 had been killed by settlers this year. https://israelpalestinenews.org/heidi-levine-recounts-how-palestinian-youths-helped-save-her-in-settler-attack/ The Israel Lobby’s Changing Fortunes
The main institutions of the lobby, always wealthy relative to their opponents and competitors, are far richer.
Israel’s alleged commitment to peace with the Palestinians has been completely submerged; no Israeli leader of consequence even pretends to want a settlement.
Israel’s alleged commitment to peace with the Palestinians has been completely submerged; no Israeli leader of consequence even pretends to want a settlement.
Israel’s policy of seeking outright military domination of its entire region faces no substantial internal opposition.
The lobby has largely abandoned efforts to explain or justify Israeli policies, Instead increasingly Israel’s supporters in the United States seek to conflate any opposition to Israel and American support for it with antisemitism. https://israelpalestinenews.org/the-israel-lobbys-changing-fortunes/
The lobby has largely abandoned efforts to explain or justify Israeli policies, Instead increasingly Israel’s supporters in the United States seek to conflate any opposition to Israel and American support for it with antisemitism. https://israelpalestinenews.org/the-israel-lobbys-changing-fortunes/
Between 51% and 65% of likely voters in six states supported Senate measures blocking bomb transfers to Israel.
Cutting $3.3 billion in annual taxpayer-funded weapons assistance won majority support in five states and plurality support in North Carolina.
Across all six states, more respondents said the Iran war benefits Israel most than said it benefits the US most. https://www.palestinechronicle.com/six-state-poll-finds-majority-support-for-bomb-restrictions-opposition-to-israel-aid/
Cutting $3.3 billion in annual taxpayer-funded weapons assistance won majority support in five states and plurality support in North Carolina.
Across all six states, more respondents said the Iran war benefits Israel most than said it benefits the US most. https://www.palestinechronicle.com/six-state-poll-finds-majority-support-for-bomb-restrictions-opposition-to-israel-aid/
Celia Farber, Vanity Fair Publishes Book Excerpt Alleging Dutch Intelligence Monitored Jared Kushner’s Phone, Finding Up To $3 Billion In UAE Bribes: Kushner Calls The Story “Completely Insane”
Jerusalem Post Took Its Story Down, Alleging Author Matthew Cole Had Unsubstantiated Facts, But We Must Presume This Piece Went Through EXHAUSTIVE Fact and Legal Checks https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/vanity-fair-publishes-book-excerptA congressional report on the USS Liberty attack falls outside the Freedom of Information Act, decades after the Navy ship was attacked. https://www.military.com/veteran-seeks-another-hearing-in-uss-liberty-records-fight-tied-to-1967-navy-attack
The EU’s stated goal is to rearm and be prepared for war with Russia. It is, thus far, a failure, but that doesn’t mean the new military hardware won’t come in handy against a restless population tired of price hikes, social spending cuts, and declining living standards...
..As we here at NC and others have been arguing for some time, the weapons bonanza to take on the evil Russians serves as a useful excuse to destroy what remains of the European social commons. Coming on top of all of Europe’s self-inflicted wounds of the past five years, as well as already-present disadvantages, the reallocation of social spending towards weapons manufacturers was bound to worsen the economic situation. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/10/eu-rearmament-billions-help-wage-war-on-own-populations.html
..As we here at NC and others have been arguing for some time, the weapons bonanza to take on the evil Russians serves as a useful excuse to destroy what remains of the European social commons. Coming on top of all of Europe’s self-inflicted wounds of the past five years, as well as already-present disadvantages, the reallocation of social spending towards weapons manufacturers was bound to worsen the economic situation. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/10/eu-rearmament-billions-help-wage-war-on-own-populations.html
Investing in America: Syngenta and Smithfield — Both Chinese-Owned — Spent $24 Million to Buy U.S. Food, Farm and Pesticide Policies https://tdefender.substack.com/p/syngenta-smithfield-chinese-owned-spent-millions-us-food-farm-pesticide-policies
We all have a lot of extra brain cells... Brain Changes Linked to Ultra-Processed Foods, Studies Reveal Structural Alterations in Key Regions https://retirement.media/brain-changes-linked-to-ultra-processed-foods-studies-reveal-structural-alterations-in-key-regions/
This young mother brought her just-vaccinated twins to the ER, was ignored, they died, and she is charged with murder, while her new infant has no mother.
Breaking: Attorneys for Andrea Shaw Ask Court to Dismiss Murder Charges, Accuse Prosecutors of ‘Misconduct’ Attorneys for Andrea Shaw, the Idaho mother whose twin toddlers died eight days after receiving vaccines, have moved to dismiss the grand jury murder indictment against her, citing prosecutorial misconduct in the grand jury hearing. “When the facts come out to the court and to the public, it’s going to be shocking,” said attorney Rick Jaffe, who is representing Shaw. “Andrea Shaw did not kill her children, and that will be made abundantly clear.” https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/andrea-shaw-attorneys-ask-court-dismiss-murder-charges-prosecutors-misconduct/
"What a long, strange trip it's been..." New Fossil Confirms a Human Ancestor Appeared 200,000 Years Earlier Than Expected https://www.sciencealert.com/new-fossil-confirms-a-human-ancestor-appeared-200000-years-earlier-than-expected
Throwback (pruning 10 ft tall fall okra)
