Johnday's Blog

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Escalation Dominance

 Subjects of Empire,


  The current version of western financial empire operates upon value-extraction through $US banking and finance, necessitating that wealthy people and countries participate in the system to sustain it. Creating $US to lend at interest, which must be repaid via deliveries of actual goods and services to the financial institutions and their investors, is a very profitable arrangement. It does require continuing expansion of the debt-based $US money supply.
  Participants can be induced to remain in this system by carrots for wealthy investors, who are assured real returns on their investments, and military sticks for nations who might be reluctant to be bled by the system, countries such as Iran and Russia, for instance.
  This imperial financial system replaced and grew out of the system promulgated under the British Empire, run from London, but now $US based and run from multiple nodes, including London, New York, Washington, Frankfurt, Paris and Tel Aviv.
  Both rewards for large investors and threat of military attack are important to keep the world engaging through this system. SWIFT transaction framework makes this very smooth, unless a country or bank is excluded, when it is forced to find or devise a workaround. Exclusion from SWIFT has been done repeatedly in recent decades, including to Russia and Iran. Other large countries like China and India have seen that the existence of an alternative settlement mechanism is in their interest, so as to maintain national autonomy against such a coercive attack.
  Somehow, both Russia and Iran have weathered financial and military attacks from this financial and military empire, and are now sustaining wars of attrittion against the empire. The empire is low on defensive missiles like Patriot and PAC-2&3 family, each of which takes 2 years to make, and which manufacturing lines cannot be readily expanded, due to complexity and lack of both materials and expertise. There are about 400 contractors required to make a Patriot or PAC-2&3 missile. 
  Russia, China and iran all have more centralized manufacturing, at far higher production rates, already scaled-up for attrittional war, and not diminishing towards any limits during ongoing warfare. Iran has deeply buried critical facilities rather than invest heavily in anti-missile systems, which it has bought from Russia and China, and largely holds in underground reserves.
  US/NATO have ramped up offensive drone and missile supplies to Ukraine, in an effort to force Russian battlefield concessions, but it has not worked yet, as Russia has also escalated strikes against Ukrainian fueling stations and trucks, which supply the forward armies, drones and missile attacks. This has successfullly pushed the Ukrainian launch points hundreds of miles farther away from the Russian border, allowing ample time for Russian air defenses to prepare and engage, shooting down most Ukrainian missiles and almost all drones. 
  Russia has accellerated ground advances, also, getting close to taking all of Donbas this summer, and also other historically Russian areas, like Kharkiv and Odessa. Odessa is Ukraine's remaining Black Sea port, in which the UK has a lot of interest. The UK might lose most interest in Ukraine if it lost that asset.       Russia continues to prevail in the war of attrittion, with long civilian gas lines, but a highly functional military economy, as well as strained, but functional civilian economy. 
  President Trump would like to negotiate a ceasefire to rebuild Ukrainian capabilities, but Russia will not do that. Russia still insists upon a signed treaty to end the war on Russian terms, which remain the same for over a year, and will be realized militarily if not diplomatically.
  Iran has now unified during the largest funeral in history for assassinated leader Ali Khameini. The unjustified US/Israeli murders of schoolgirls, civilians and elected political figures, scientists, diplomats and military leaders are very much in the public mind, along with realizations that the US and Israel have thrown their worst at Iran, except for nuclear weapons, and have run low on both defensive and offensive missiles. Iran sees traffic in the Strait of Hormuz diverting from the US-approved Omani corridor to the Iranian-approved corridor, especially after Iran hit Omani-corridor tankers with anti-ship missiles, not just drones.  No ship can afford to take that route now, as there will be no insurance policy sold under those conditions.
  European NATO members are invested in the Ukraine proxy-war against Russia, and are unwilling to let it be settled, presumably for the financial losses they will be forced to admit, but also for maintenance of their control-narrative of Russia-the-external-threat, which is not even much believed in those countries.
  The US under Trump wants to disengage from the Ukraine-war tar-baby without losing too much prestige, and with some case to make for "winning" something. Trump needs Putin to give up something big enough for him to show as a trophy. That does not appear likely this summer.
  Putin's party needs to win elections in September, and is likely to escalate the war to some decisive victory in August, perhaps by decapitation strikes against Zelensky and other high Ukrainian officials. Ukraine is making noises about holding September elections to re-legitimize Zelensky, but such elections might replace him with former army Commander in Chief, Zaluzhny just as well.
  In the Mideast the Strait of Hormuz is again closed, with a lot of Iranian tankers out to sea, storing oil in international waters, vulnerable to the US Navy, and which Treasury's Bessent now says that nobody can buy. Saudi Arabia is currently exporting about 70% of its pre-war baseline through its Red Sea port, which the Houthis could block, if they decided to, but it is moving. 
  Liquified natural gas remains in short global supply, especially in Europe, which will need it badly again this winter. The US can't increase export to Europe much more, if at all.
  China used oil reserves for a few months, but is now buying oil again, after demonstrating that it was immune to attacks on supplies on a scale of months. The Strait closure has been shown to pressure Europe and Asia, but not to significantly pressure China.
  It appears that the hostages to the Strait of Hormuz are global agriculture, which already missed spring-planting fertilizer, Europe, Asia, and the $US based global financial system, which needs investors to stay invested, not sell assets, and needs to maintin the position of the $US as global reserve currency, in the face of sustained central bank increases in gold holdings, which are now the primary reserve currency holding, having replaced $US recently. 
  Trump is in a position of needing to appear to hold the upper hand militarily, to hold escalation-dominance, while Iran sees the opportunity to prove decisively that the US has lost escalation dominance, and is now a "paper-tiger" before the world. 
  At such time as Trump may be forced to back down and accept Iranian terms of control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the right to collect transit fees, the US will have been demoted from "hegemon" to "has-been". 
  Some kind of nuclear-agreement would be face-saving, but Iran has said for decades that it will not develop immoral nuclear weapons, and has not been willing to discuss further constraints than that until the US makes Israeli troops leave Lebanon, which was an agreed precondition with JD Vance, promptly undercut by Marco Rubio's negotiations with Israel and the corrupt and ineffectual Lebanese government.
  Iran closing the Strait and keeping it closed will eventually cause western financial system rupture, which Trump is certain to be monitoring. He can further attack Iran, but he can't open the Strait, and he apparently can't make Iran relinquish the right to control passage of tankers carrying oil, gas and fertilizer out of the Strait. The government of Iran is in a position to stand-firm on moral principles with the backing of the people of Iran, and help from Russia, China, coast-hugging shipping and overland transportation routes. Iran, Russia, China and neighbors can already do business without SWIFT.
  If the current Western financial system is brought to crisis, and undergoes a collapse like 2008, it will not be able to negotiate a return to a dominant position in global finance. Various forms of trade and investment arrangement will probably take a decade or more to be forged into a new global financial system, and it may be multipolar. It would apparently be gold-based initially.

  New Strikes On Iran Significantly Stronger Than Earlier Attacks, As IRGC Targets US Navy Warships
US strikes on Iran announced, as 'heavy costs' for earlier targeting of multiple commercial vessels
  Oil rises as Treasury revokes June 21 Iran oil waiver
Hormuz Threat Level Raised To "Severe"
  Three maritime incidents reported on Hormuz in last 24 hours   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/qatari-lng-tanker-hit-iranian-missile-hormuz-chokepoint

  Moon of Alabama,  War On Iran: Both Sides Declare Their MoU To Be Ineffective
At the beginning of the week more tankers took the southern route along the Omani coast instead of the northern route on which Iran, following the Memorandum of Understanding, insists. The Omani route is under observation and protection by U.S. military assets.
  Iran is not the only one which interprets clause 5 of the MoU – “the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements …” – to give it exclusive rights to regulate the traffic in the Strait.
  GĂ©rard Araud @GerardAraud – 19:59 UTC · Jul 7, 2026
At the first reading by any diplomat, the MoU was obviously giving Iran a free hand in the strait of Hormuz. …
  On Tuesday Iran fired drones against some five cargo ships which took the U.S. protected Omani route. Other ships on the same route immediately started to divert. Some returned to their anchoring positions while other proceed along the northern route.
  Late Tuesday the U.S. canceled its regulation which had lifted U.S. sanctions against the sale of Iranian oil. The lifting of sanctions had been one of the MoU provisions.
  On Wednesday morning a large U.S. attack was launched against targets along the Iranian coast. Some 60 of the targets were random civilian fishing vessels which the U.S. claimed to be IRGC speed boats.
  Iran announced ‘consequences’ and stated that the U.S. was (again) in breach of the MoU provisions:
  The [foreign] ministry said the strikes constituted “a flagrant violation” of the first clause of the Pakistan-brokered MoU, which requires the cessation of military operations.
  It said that the attacks, coupled with the US Treasury Department’s decision the previous night to revoke Iran’s oil sales authorization, were in violation of arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the continuation of Israeli military aggression and terrorist acts against Lebanon, had rendered “important and fundamental parts” of the agreement ineffective.
  “The responsibility for the dangerous consequences of this escalation rests with the treaty-breaking US regime,” the statement said.
Iran warned its neighboring Gulf states of providing bases for U.S. aggression:
  The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has declared that the origin of any support provided to the “aggressor US military” in attacks against Iran’s sovereignty and territory would be regarded as a legitimate target for the Iranian Armed Forces.
  Iran responded to the U.S. attack by launching missiles and drones against U.S. military positions in Kuwait and Bahrain. It also downed an expensive  U.S. MQ-9 ‘Reaper’ drone.
  Trump declared the ceasefire to be over:
Asked whether the ceasefire and memorandum of understanding with Iran is now over after the latest attacks, Trump said it was.
  “It’s a very interesting question to me. I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore,” Trump said.
“They’re scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum. They’re sick people. They’re led by people, and they’re vicious, violent people.” He added: “And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.”
  Oil prices have risen 6% and are now likely to increase further.
Should the oil prices continue to increase it is likely that Trump, who spoke of “the Islamic Republic of Japan”, will again change his mind.   
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/07/war-on-iran-both-sides-declare-their-mou-to-be-ineffective.html

  Iran Threatens To Choke Off Hormuz Again As US Readies Blockade; Trump Says Tehran Wants To Assassinate Him
Iran threatens to reclose the Strait of Hormuz and suspended final talks with the US.
  The US earlier revoked an Iranian oil waiver & now signals readiness to restore a maritime blockade.
Trump said the ceasefire is over and warned of fresh US strikes on Iran, probably "tonight".
  Oil jumps above $80 as fears of renewed conflict & return to Hormuz Strait closure intensifies.   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/theyre-scum-trump-says-us-iran-ceasefire-over-sending-oil-higher

Rutte the sycophant: NATO Chief Backs Renewed US Strikes On Iran As 'Absolutely Necessary'   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nato-chief-backs-renewed-us-strikes-iran-absolutely-necessary

  Iran War: Expected Hardening of Iran Posture in Wake of Funerals for US-Israel War Martyrs; Iran Hits Two Tankers Transiting on Oman Side; China Buying Non-Iran Gulf State Oil, Opposes Iran Control Plans; Yet More on Oil Price Anomalies as Crack Spreads Widen Further
   Iran may have decided not to make any big moves while the services for the Supreme Leader and other martyrs are still underway.
Or it may be that they decided that a few actual strikes that seriously damaged tankers would be sufficient for Mr. Market, here insurers and reasonably-prudent ship operators, to pull back. As Shanaka Anslem Perera said on Twitter:
  Iran fired missiles at two civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, according to two US officials, and the missiles were never meant to actually sink them.
The missiles were rather meant to reprice them.

  The tankers were hit for using the route drawn by Uncle Sam and Oman instead of the one drawn by Iran, and a single strike on that lane does something a blockade cannot. It makes this particular whole route “uninsurable”. An uninsurable lane is actually a closed lane, and Iran just found how to shut the strait without shutting it.   
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/07/iran-war-expected-hardening-of-iran-posture-in-wake-of-funerals-for-us-israel-war-martyrs-iran-hits-two-tankers-transiting-on-oman-side-china-buying-non-iran-gulf-state-oil-opposes-iran-control-pl.html

  From July 3, Times of Israel: Trump claims ‘spoiled child’ Iran has agreed to most US demands in negotiations
US president asserts Iran defeated militarily, now has ‘more rational’ leadership, ponders how American Jews can vote for Democrats when he is ‘best president in history of Israel’   https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-claims-spoiled-child-iran-has-agreed-to-most-us-demands-in-negotiations/

From July 3, Iran's Mehr News: Iran to come out victorious over US: Russia's Medvedev says   https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245861/Iran-to-come-out-victorious-over-US-Russia-s-Medvedev-says

July 3, Mehr New, Iran: Lebanon's peace, security Iran's principled approach: MoD   https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245860/Lebanon-s-peace-security-Iran-s-principled-approach-MoD

  ANKARA, July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. ⁠President ⁠Donald Trump said ⁠on Wednesday that he thought Israel would withdraw troops from southern Lebanon ‌because it wanted to take ‌that step, despite comments from ⁠Israel's ⁠leader indicating otherwise.
  Trump told reporters at the NATO Summit in Ankara that he had discussed a withdrawal with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
  "Yeah, I think they're going to. I ⁠think ⁠they want to," Trump ⁠said. "So we have a deal with Israel and Lebanon. Yeah, they'll ⁠leave. And I think it's going to work out very well."
  Netanyahu visited Lebanese territory occupied by the Israeli ⁠military last week, telling soldiers that Israel would not ⁠withdraw from the country's south as long as Iran-backed Hezbollah continued to pose a threat.   https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-07-08/trump-says-he-thinks-israel-will-withdraw-troops-from-southern-lebanon

July 7, Double-Tap Bombing Rips Through Damascus Near French President Macron's Hotel   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/double-tap-explosion-rips-through-damascus-near-french-president-macrons-hotel

  Today, July 8: Why the Damascus blasts during Macron’s visit are a blow to al-Sharaa
The twin blasts that rocked Damascus during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Syria this week underscore the fragility of President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s authority and the security challenges he faces. They also undermine the message of stability that Damascus is striving to convey to the international community.
  No group has taken responsibility for the explosions. Syria’s interior ministry said one bomb was placed inside a car parked on the side of a road and the second was planted in a garbage bin. It said they exploded “while preparations were underway” to dismantle them. “These acts of sabotage carried out today... were intended to undermine the French president’s visit,” said Syrian Interior Minister Anas Khattab, who visited the scene.   https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260708-why-the-damascus-blasts-during-macron-visit-are-a-blow-to-al-sharaa

  Hamas Announces Dissolution Of Gaza Government, But Israel Warns It's A Sham
Hamas formally announced Monday the final dissolution of its government in Gaza amid preparations to hand power to a technical committee backed by the United Nations as part of a Trump-brokered ceasefire deal...
..The development has been met with mixed reactions, with Israeli officials asserting this is a deceptive PR stunt with no real significance.
"The alleged resignation of the Hamas government, where all of the Hamas members stay in their positions, is a spin that has no significance," an Israeli official told the Times of Israel.
  The response came on the heels of Ismail al-Thawabta, general director of the Hamas-run Government Media Office, having announced that "only technical and professional staff" would remain in their positions to run the Gaza Strip's daily administrative affairs.
  "All employees working in service provision are 'state employees' and are fully prepared to work under the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza," he said at the press event held in the courtyard of Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah.
  Additionally, Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem touted that it marks "a positive step forward on the path to implement the ceasefire deal."
  At the start of this year, back
in January, special envoy Steve Witkoff said the second phase of the ceasefire plan would move the Palestinian enclave into a period that will see the demilitarization of Hamas and the establishment of a technocratic governance model.   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hamas-announces-dissolution-gaza-government-israel-warns-its-sham

  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-07-08
The truce didn't just fray, it died: overnight the US struck 80+ targets across Iran, revoked Iran's oil-export waiver in the same hour, and Iran answered with missiles and drones on 85 Gulf sites in Bahrain and Kuwait — Trump then declared the MOU "over." Oil gapped +5-6%, and the Korean market broke separately from the war news, entering a bear market as Samsung's record profit still triggered a chip-wreck. Continuation underneath it all: JGB and US long-end yields at multi-decade highs, China's gold-hub machinery switching on, and Russia's ballistic strikes on Kyiv still going unĂ­ntercepted.....Trigger was a tanker campaign in Hormuz. Iran hit the Qatari LNG Al Rekayyat, Saudi VLCC Wedyan and UAE LPG Al Maryah — 4-5 vessels over 24h (MenchOsint, HormuzLetter). Traffic has collapsed onto Iran-designated lanes; the US-Omani corridor is effectively empty...
..Long-end yields at multi-decade highs on both sides of the Pacific. Japan's 10Y hit 2.87%, a 30-year high (Barchart, Hedgeye); the US 30Y jumped to 5.05%, highest since May...
..Iran's Foreign Ministry formally declared the war-termination deal "ineffective" and put Gulf hosts on notice as complicit (MarioNawfal). Iran also fired anti-ship missiles and drones at US warships in the Sea of Oman...
..Saudi Arabia is selling crude at a discount for the first time since 2020 (Barchart) even as 321 crack spreads scream tightness (chigrl). The US SPR sits at a 43-year low (Hedgeye) — a thin buffer heading into a reopened conflict.
  Russia's side of the ledger is worse: Urals crashed to $42/bbl (zerohedge), and Ukraine's deepest strike of the war (~2,500km) halted the Omsk refinery, Russia's largest at 8-10% of national capacity...
..Gold/silver: Hong Kong's clearing machinery goes live as the West drains its vaults
Hong Kong's central gold-clearing hub launched with a "Delivery Connect" link to the SGE and planned yuan-denominated gold futures, targeting >2,000 tonnes storage by 2030 (KingKong9888); SGE is closing leveraged retail gold accounts by July 24 and migrating the business offshore (Dioclet). HSBC is expanding its HK vault to 200 tons (David Lee). Confidence: HIGH.
  PBOC added 15 tonnes in June — 20th straight month, now 2,346 tonnes (KrishanGopaul); 82% of central banks now hold physical gold, up from 71% (KobeissiLetter).
  COMEX open interest is at a 10-year low with 448t gold and 6,000t silver drained from vaults...
..US trade deficit widened 40%+ to $77.6B, tied partly to AI-datacenter hardware imports — a real drag hiding inside the capex boom...
..Russia-Ukraine: ballistic strikes on Kyiv keep landing unopposed; the fuel war widens
Overnight Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles hit Kyiv with 9 impacts across 2 waves and zero intercepts — no Patriot PAC-2/3 interceptors left — striking a Nova Poshta logistics warehouse (Russia claims a Flamingo/drone component plant)
(AMK Mapping, AMK Mapping). Confidence: HIGH.
  Ukraine hit back at the shadow fleet: 8 oil tankers, a dry-cargo ship and a ferry struck in the Azov Sea (AMK Mapping); Russia claims 415 drones downed overnight with the Nizhnekamskneftekhim and Saratov refineries reportedly hit.   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-07-08

  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-07-07
Israel-Turkey friction: Netanyahu made the Fox case for confronting Turkey and asked Trump not to supply F-35s (atrupar); separately he asked Trump not to sell Turkey air-defense arms (zerohedge/Axios).   https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-07-07

Thoughtful and well informed, by Irishman Conor Gallagher, A Bang or a Whimper? Comparing Imperial Collapse in the US to the UK’s Decline   https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/07/will-the-us-empire-end-with-a-bang-or-a-whimper-comparing-imperial-collapse-in-the-us-to-the-uks-decline.html

  Trump calls Putin on US Independence Day
The US and Russian leaders spoke for nearly 1.5 hours on the 250th anniversary
of American independence, according to Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov 

  According to Ushakov, Moscow initiated the previous phone call on June 14, Trump’s 80th birthday, while this time it was the American side that proposed speaking on the day of the 250th anniversary of US independence.
  The presidents agreed to remain in contact and hold another call in the near future, according to Ushakov. Putin also reminded Trump that he has a standing invitation to visit Moscow. 
 https://web.archive.org/web/20260705081908/https://www.rt.com/news/642587-putin-trump-phone-call/

  John Helmer, HOW NOT TO LOSE (JOB, ELECTION, WAR)
This question, published on July 4, has been put bluntly by Dmitry Rogozin — former Russian ambassador to NATO, former deputy prime minister for the military-industrial complex, former chief of Roskosmos, and currently senator for the Zaporozhye region and front-line commander.
  Rogozin, 62, also a veteran of Russian presidential election campaigning, is still campaigning.    “The winner is not the one who can shoot down more drones. The winner will be the one who will be able to make each subsequent enemy strike less effective and more expensive, and his own defense will become cheaper, more massive and automated. That’s what the real technological race is about today.” ...
.. When he spoke with President Donald Trump on July 4, according to the Kremlin’s version of their conversation... Putin — said his spokesman Yury Ushakov — was trying to persuade Trump not to sign a statement of unified warfighting strategy against Russia at the NATO summit meeting; this will be held later this week in Turkey.
  With the Europeans at the G-7 summit meeting in France on June 16-17, Trump had already signed his backing for escalation of the drone war. “We commit to increase the pressure on the Russian war economy,” Trump signed with the Europeans. “In this context, we will strengthen our sanctions, including those on the oil and gas sectors. We consider this the right moment to proceed with additional measures.”  
  To Putin, according to Ushakov, Trump replied that “his special envoys – Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – will carry on their mediation efforts and are ready to come to Moscow at our convenience.”  Putin’s answer to that has not been reported.
  Putin did remind Trump of the bribes Witkoff and Kushner have been discussing with Putin’s representative, Kirill Dmitriev. “There is colossal potential for mutually beneficial cooperation between our countries,” Putin reportedly said. Trump replied: “for these prospects to be realised, it is necessary to put a stop to the Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible.”
  A Moscow source in a position to know claims the Russian bribes have not yet been paid to the Americans...
..This is Rogozin’s answer:
  “The military use of drones seems cheap only at the level of an individual product. An FPV [First-Person View], a copter, or a simple aircraft UAV [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle] can cost disproportionately less than the target they hit and the means by which they have to be shot down. But at the system level, the opposite is true: drones dramatically increase the cost of war for both sides.
  The attacker buys a cheap entrance ticket: housing, motor, camera, communications, warhead. But then operator training, reconnaissance, retransmission, logistics, repairs, batteries, ground stations, losses, failed launches, defects, modernization and a constant change of tactics begin.
  The defender pays even more. He needs a continuous loop: detection, confirmation, communication, duty shifts, electronic warfare, optics, thermal imagers, radars, mobile groups, ammunition, training, redundancy, exercises, false alarm analysis, situation centers and interaction with air defense. A cheap goal forces you to build an expensive counteraction environment. And all this happens symmetrically.
  This is how the war economy spirals. The problem is not that the drone cannot be shot down —  the problem is that it is often too expensive to shoot it down. You can technically win every single interception and economically lose the war. An expensive rocket versus a cheap FPV plane is bad math. But an interceptor drone without a detection, classification, and guidance system loop does not work either.
  Therefore, the main question now is not just ‘how to shoot down?’, but ‘at what cost to disrupt the enemy’s task?’. A massive cheap threat cannot be countered with massive expensive interception. It is necessary to transfer the struggle from destroying the apparatus to disrupting its function (ideally, the functions of its operators). The real answer is a layered defense economy: first, the cheapest sufficient measures, then the more expensive ones, and only as a last resort, the most technically complex and expensive means. But we must act decisively, systematically and without delay.
  The winner is not the one who can shoot down more drones. The winner will be the one who will be able to make each subsequent enemy strike less effective and more expensive, and his own defense will become cheaper, more massive and automated. That’s what the real technological race is about today.”    
https://johnhelmer.net/how-not-to-lose-job-election-war/#more-94582

Presumably guided to Azov Sea targets by NATO: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Attack Hits Eight Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Tankers   https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/ukrainian-drone-swarm-attack-hits-eight-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers

  Trump Greenlights Patriot Missile Production In Ukraine, Praises Deep Strikes Into Russia
While in Turkey for the annual NATO summit, President Trump commented on the issue of Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory on its oil refineries and defense manufacturing facilities, which has unleashed a fuel crisis in various parts of Russia and especially Crimea.
"It's an escalation but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end [of the war]," the US President told the NATO summit.
  After heaping lavish praise on Ukraine forces for supposedly turning the tide of battle and momentum in Kiev's favor, Trump also said, "We have a lot of pressure on President Putin. I don’t think he likes what’s going on." He added: "But I talked to President Putin a lot. He wants to end the war."
  The Wall Street Journal comments in the wake of Trump's remarks:
President Trump said he supported Ukraine striking targets deep inside Russian territory, calling it an escalation that could help end the war.
...In a marked contrast to past meetings between the two leaders, Trump opened his press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky by offering warm words and fresh promises of military cooperation with Ukraine, providing a major boon for Kyiv and its supporters in Europe. Trump praised Ukraine’s bravery, signaled he would consider granting Kyiv a license to produce U.S. Patriot missile interceptors and said he would consider travel to Kyiv at the right time in peace talks.
  On this, Trump said Washington would give Ukraine "the right to make Patriots" - after Zelensky has for at least six months been relentless in requesting this, framing it as urgent and for the protection of cities and civilians.
  "We’ll show them how to do it," Trump stated, describing the system as "very complex" - though he also said the Ukrainians would "figure out the complexity quickly."
  Trump continued by saying that American defense firms are already building "four plants" and claimed that "all of our companies will be able to do this in two to three months."
  However, there have notoriously been immense backlogs when it comes to Patriot production, and there's said to be great global demand among US allies, especially given depletions which have come as a result of the Iran war.   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-greenlights-patriot-missile-production-ukraine-praises-deep-strikes-russia

  Zelensky In Ankara Still Insistent On Ukraine Joining NATO: 'Alliance For The Future'
Zelensky said "Europe urgently needs its own capability to produce anti-ballistic systems and the missiles they require." He added: "The one thing we still need to do here in Europe is build a strong defense against Russia's ballistic missiles. It's a big challenge… this is Russia's last major advantage."
  It's interesting that Zelensky is arguing that his country should become a full-fledged NATO member based on already in effect being militarily integrated.
  This was one of the Kremlin's very rationales for launching the 'special military operation' in Ukraine in the first place. Also interesting is that Moscow is now referencing it as a 'war' on a much more official level...
..Russia still has as a main front-and-center demand that Ukraine definitively and permanently reject aspirations to join NATO. Moscow also still requires full political recognition over the four eastern annexed oblasts, as well as Crimea.
  Western officials have still been reluctant to fully back some kind of rapid NATO membership track for Ukraine, knowing it would take the Ukraine crisis from more of a proxy war situation strait into WW3-style direct war between Russia and NATO.   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-ankara-still-insistent-ukraine-joining-nato-alliance-future

Military Summary: CONTROLLED ESCALATION - US Licenses PAC-3 for Ukraine - Kyiv Hammered - Azov Fleet Blocked, MS 08.07.2026   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4QUxMDctlw

  Trump lashes out at NATO as first day of summit wraps in Turkiye
United States President Donald Trump has declared he is “very disappointed with NATO” on the first day of a summit of leaders of the mutual defence alliance in Turkiye that exposed tensions over European defence spending, the Russia-Ukraine war and the future of Greenland.
  Trump arrived in Ankara on Tuesday for the summit along with other NATO leaders. The main session will be on Wednesday.The summit comes at a fragile time for the 77-year-old alliance, which has seen Trump sow discord over Iran, Greenland and Washington’s commitment to protecting fellow members.
  After criticising NATO allies during a news conference with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump said that if the summit “weren’t held in Turkiye, where my friend happens to be a very strong leader, a very strong person, it’s possible that I wouldn’t have attended”.
  Trump also named European countries who he perceived as unsupportive during the US-Israel war on Iran, saying, “We weren’t treated well because we did something in Iran.”
  “Why are we spending hundreds of billions of dollars when they’re not there for us? We’ve always been there for them,” he said.
“Italy turned us down, and Germany turned us down, and France turned us down.”
  The US president cast a brighter eye toward Ankara, remarking on the “chemistry” between the US and Turkiye, vowing to remove sanctions and saying he would soon decide about the potential sale of F-35s. “We have a very good relationship,” he said.   
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/7/trump-lashes-out-at-nato-as-first-day-of-summit-wraps-in-turkiye

  Recap of the final day of the NATO summit
Trump hailed a “very successful” NATO summit and praised President Erdogan for hosting the alliance.
  The NATO summit declaration has reaffirmed its “ironclad commitment” to collective defence under Article 5.
Turkiye’s President Erdogan says the summit in Ankara laid the foundation of a stronger NATO, adding that Turkiye hosted an “historic summit”.
  Trump said he ⁠has not yet decided ⁠whether to sell F-35 jets to Turkiye, but was ‌considering how good an ally Erdogan had been.
Zelenskyy said he had a ⁠good meeting with Trump that emphasised strengthening Ukraine’s air ‌defences amid intensified Russian attacks.
  The US president had earlier said Ukraine will be allowed to produce US Patriot missile systems.
Trump also said NATO nations will send minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz.   
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/8/nato-summit-live-trump-world-leaders-meet-in-turkiyes-ankara

Trump Tells Bessent To Halt US Trade With Spain, Calls Madrid A "Wasted Cause"   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-tells-bessent-halt-us-trade-spain-calls-madrid-wasted-cause

Spain: 70% Of Tested 'Unaccompanied Minor' Immigrants Are Actually Adults   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spain-70-tested-unaccompanied-minor-immigrants-are-actually-adults

  John Helmer on those prank-calling Russian rascals, at it again: GREECE HAS DECLARED DRONE WAR ON RUSSIA – “IT’S AS SIMPLE AS THAT” – ON CONDITION THE WAR DOESN’T DAMAGE GREEK TOURISM AND SHIPPING BUSINESS
  The war against Russia is being won in each capital of the NATO alliance, and will continue to be a winner, so long as there are no money-costing and vote-losing “accidents” or “incidents”.
  Those are two terms from Athanasios Dokos, who acknowledged “that’s a bit scary, to be honest.”
  Dokos is the National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Educated at Cambridge and Harvard, he was an academic, think tanker and advisor to the Greek Defence and Foreign Ministries until 2019 when he became the National Security Advisor. Last year Mitsotakis promoted Dokos to cabinet-level rank as Secretary-General for National Security.
  When he was telephoned from Kiev on June 24, he thought he was talking to Rustem Umerov, now the head of the National Security and Defense Council, formerly Ukraine’s Defense Minister and part-time resident of Florida.   They had met the week before (June 18-19) Umerov reminded Dokos at the start of their call, but Dokos didn’t recognize the bogus voice; he thought he recognized Umerov, but never suspected he was looking at an AI-generated image, a deepfake.    
  Dokos also didn’t know that Russia’s intelligence services have his personal telephone number and the security codes in use at the Prime Ministry.  Dokos was talking to Russia’s most famous penetration spies – the telephone pranksters Vovan and Lexus.
  To them pretending to be Umerov, Dokos revealed that as part of Greece’s long-term war strategy against Russia, it is continuing to implement plans for co-production of Ukrainian drones and Ukrainian drone warfare operations on Greek territory...
..Onshore Ukrainian drone command and control systems – this is the top secret which Dokos has revealed he was asking Umerov and Zelensky to continue running without “incidents” and “accidents”.
  Dokos also revealed that the head of the Greek intelligence agency EYP, Themistoklis Demiris,  was in Kiev shortly before his conversation was recorded to meet his SBU counterpart Yevgeny Khmara to go over the secret terms of the drone plan and its deployment in Greece without further public discoveries and embarrassments.
  Dokos and Demiris, “Umerov” was told, want to make sure that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels in the waters off Greece, launched from “onshore Ukrainian drone command and control systems” – Greek and NATO bases in the region — should not interfere with Greek shipping operations or deter tourism in the Greek islands...
..Manos Tzafalias, a Greek investigative journalist who has been reporting on the “incident” and “accident”, has exposed the misreporting of the Greek press and the misinformation issued by the Greek Defence Ministry, Foreign Ministry and Prime Ministry. The cover-up is an attempt to conceal from Greek voters the collaboration between Athens and Kiev in the drone war against Russian tankers on the high seas, especially the Mediterranean. Greek voter sympathy for Russia  and opposition to the US and NATO war are the highest in Europe.      https://johnhelmer.net/greece-has-declared-drone-war-on-russia-its-as-simple-as-that-on-condition-the-war-doesnt-damage-greek-tourism-and-shipping-business/#more-94565

  Exclusive: The EU banning the ESN party is a ‘realistic scenario,’ warns German MEP and president of Sovereignty Foundation
"I think this is the easier route for them than banning the AfD at national level. There is less attention on the European political party,"
MEP Alexander Sell tells Remix News in an exclusive interview about EU efforts to destroy the right-wing ESN   
  The Europe of Sovereign Nations Group (ESN), which includes nine right-wing European parties, has been relentlessly attacked by the EU establishment since its founding in 2024. The ESN’s largest party member, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), has also been the target of efforts for an outright ban at the national level in Germany. While left-wing and establishment parties are struggling to implement a ban on the AfD in Germany, at the European federal level, democratic checks and balances and the rule of law are far weaker.
  Now, the Authority for European Political Parties and European Political Foundations (APPF) is seeking to de-register the ESN, which would strip it of all its funding and de facto lead to the end of the party.   
https://rmx.news/article/exclusive-the-eu-banning-the-esn-party-is-a-realistic-scenario-warns-german-mep-and-president-of-sovereignty-foundation/

  Ian Davis, on our current form of governance, often called by nicer names: Functional Oligarchy
Oligarchy is a very old system of governance and one we have never really escaped. More than 2,000 years ago, Aristotle stated that oligarchy (oligarchia) becomes the governance system “when men of property have government in their hands.” Today, we define “oligarchy” as “government by the few, especially despotic power exercised by a small and privileged group for corrupt or selfish purposes.” When oligarchs exercise political power by virtue of their wealth, we call it “plutocracy.”...
..We are told that we live in “representative democracies” precisely because oligarchy is widely viewed as unacceptable. Despite the fact that “representative democracy” is the antithesis of democracy, the purported virtues of our fake democracies are constantly extolled simply to convince us that we don’t live in oligarchies. Political science, though, clearly reveals that we do.   https://iaindavis.substack.com/p/functional-oligarchy

 The worst wealth-disparity since 1929: How America's Wealth Distribution Has Changed Over The Last 40 Years
The top 1% built its wealth primarily through stocks and businesses, assets that have soared in value for decades. In fact, every group below the top 1% has lost share since 1989: even the next 9% of households, from the 90th to 99th percentiles, slipped from 38.0% to 36.4%.
  Wealth further down the ladder is tied mostly to the family home, which appreciates far more slowly than the stock market. Much of the bottom 50%’s net worth is home equity, and many households in that group have little or no net worth at all. That’s why the gap between the top and the bottom has widened over the last 36 years.   
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/how-americas-wealth-distribution-has-changed-over-last-40-years

How is the tulip-bulb reserve doing?  US Bitcoin Reserve Stalls As Treasury And Commerce Vie For Control: Report   https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/us-bitcoin-reserve-stalls-treasury-and-commerce-vie-control-report

  The Ethical Skeptic, in an age of AI, and increasing technocracy, asks: What is Agency?
Before the advent of social media, agency was largely a function of intent enabled through capability. An individual’s or institution’s ability to translate purpose into action depended primarily upon what they sought to accomplish and the means available to them. In the age of AI, however, agency becomes fundamentally reflexive. Every exercise of intelligence simultaneously generates information about itself, creating a continuous feedback loop between actor and observer. Effective agency is therefore no longer determined solely by intent and capability, but by the interaction between (1) intent and capability, (2) the ability of others to infer that intent and capability from accumulated behavioral traces, and (3) one’s own ability to accurately perceive and regulate one’s true motivations, assumptions, and operational footprint...
..Agency, in effect, transforms from being a property of the individual node to becoming a property of the network. In doing so, agency undergoes an ontological shift. It no longer resides principally within the individual, but emerges through the individual’s participation in a larger reflexive intelligence or club architecture...
..Perhaps the most visible societal example is the transition from one-to-many messaging toward AI-assisted microtargeting and synthetic media. Campaigns and influence operations can rapidly generate tailored content for different audiences while AI simultaneously measures reactions and refines subsequent messaging, creating a reflexive feedback loop between message, audience, and strategy. Increasingly, social media platforms learn what captures our attention and then give us more of it.
  Over time, we are exposed to fewer ideas that genuinely challenge our thinking and far more that reinforce it. The result is not merely an echo chamber, but what might more aptly be termed a thunder chamber — an environment in which selected narratives are continuously amplified until they begin to feel like independent thought. Participants gradually come to believe that “consensus” shares their views, when in reality they are often experiencing a carefully curated representation of the world rather than the world itself.   
https://theethicalskeptic.com/2026/07/05/what-is-agency/

  Tucker Carlson Unveils Major Political Plan
Speaking with the Columbia Journalism Review in an interview published Wednesday, Carlson said he plans to “help build a third party,” just months after publicly breaking with President Donald Trump over the U.S.’s involvement in the Israel-Iran war.
  “I’m going to help build a third party. There should be a good-faith effort to figure out what benefits the country,” Carlson said.
During the same interview, Carlson insisted that he still has no interest in seeking public office. “I don’t want to be a candidate,” he said.   
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tucker-carlson-unveils-major-political-plan

  Charles Hugh Smith points out, Without Subsidies, AI Is Unaffordable
Let's pull all this into an undeniable conclusion: AI is based on massively subsidizing users' costs.   https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/without-subsidies-ai-is-unaffordable

DeepSeek Developing In-House AI Chip In Bid To Cut Nvidia Reliance   https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/deepseek-developing-house-ai-chip-bid-cut-nvidia-reliance

  Air Force Engineer Accused Of Cutting Down AI Cameras Becomes Unlikely Hero, Raises Thousands For Legal Defense
Jeffrey Sovern, a 41-year-old Air Force engineer and mechanic from Virginia, is accused of cutting down multiple Flock Safety license plate reader cameras. He now faces 13 counts of destruction of property, along with six counts each of petit larceny and possession of burglary tools.
  The case comes as Flock Safety's automated license plate reader network continues to spread rapidly across the country. Supporters say the cameras help police solve crimes, while critics argue they create a growing surveillance network that tracks the movements of ordinary Americans and raises serious privacy concerns...
..Sovern has made no secret of his views. In a GoFundMe campaign created to cover his legal expenses, he framed the case as a fight over privacy rights. "My name is Jeff and I appreciate my privacy. I appreciate everyone's right to privacy, enshrined in the fourth amendment," Sovern wrote...
..Originally seeking $8,500, the campaign has gained momentum as news of the case has spread. It has now brought in more than $15,000 from over 400 contributors, far surpassing its initial goal. [It is up to $34,158 as pf this writing.]
  In a recent update following a preliminary hearing, Sovern thanked supporters for helping bring attention to the issue.
"Thank you to those that had the time to show support this week!" he wrote. "We have seen a huge uptick in awareness of the system and this case."
  He also urged supporters to continue advocating against what he called an expanding surveillance network, encouraging people to "reach out to the local governments and demand that these systems are taken down."   
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/air-force-engineer-accused-cutting-down-ai-cameras-becomes-unlikely-hero-raises-thousands

  This pleasant and informative video advises stock investors to hold their positions until December. Why?  THIS is The EXACT Date of The Next Stock Market Crash.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmyrLc44dik

  EPA Greenlights PFAS Pesticides Never Before Used in U.S. for Use on Corn, Wheat, Soy and Other Food Crops
The controversial approval of the two new “forever chemical” pesticides came just days after the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Bayer and the Trump administration in limiting Americans’ ability to sue pesticide companies for harms linked to pesticides. Diflufenican and epyrifenacil, never before used in the U.S., can now both be used on the two most widely grown U.S. crops. Epyrifenacil has also been approved for wheat.   
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/epa-greenlights-pfas-pesticides-never-before-u-s-corn-wheat-soy-food-crops/

  CDC Study Finds 24% of Adults in Hard-Hit States Carry Alpha-Gal Antibodies Linked to Meat Allergies 
New data suggest Alpha-Gal Syndrome is far more widespread than previously recognized.   
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/cdc-study-finds-24-of-adults-carry

  Mother of Twins Who Died 8 Days After Vaccinations Charged With Murder
Police in Payette, Idaho, arrested Andrea Shaw on Tuesday afternoon, more than a year after her two children — fraternal twins Dallas and Tyson Shaw — were found dead at their home on May 1, 2025, eight days after receiving their 18-month vaccines. Police charged Shaw with two counts of first-degree murder. Shaw said doctors ignored her when she warned that the twins’ father had previously experienced a bad reaction to a flu vaccine.
  A 23-year-old mother charged with two counts of first-degree murder in connection with the deaths of her twin toddlers was set to be arraigned later today, after an Idaho grand jury indicted her late Monday, the Payette Police Department said in a press release.
  Police arrested Andrea Shaw on Tuesday afternoon, more than a year after her two children — fraternal twins Dallas and Tyson Shaw — were found dead at their home in Payette on May 1, 2025, eight days after receiving their 18-month vaccines.
  The Payette Police Department said the arrest follows “a lengthy and thorough investigation” and said it would have no further comment regarding evidence in the case. “Future information will be presented through the judicial process,” officials said.
  Shaw alleges that her twins’ deaths were caused by the vaccines they received at a routine doctor’s appointment.
Nurse Angela Wulbrecht, an advocate for people injured by vaccines and who has been supporting the Shaws, told The Defender she was “ shocked and heartbroken” to learn of Shaw’s arrest.
  “Over the past year, I have had the privilege of walking alongside Andrea and her family after the unimaginable loss of her twin babies,” Wulbrecht said. “I have witnessed a mother’s profound grief, unwavering love for her children, and determination to seek answers.”
  Andrea gave birth to a new baby, born three weeks prematurely, on June 25, Shaw’s attorney Joseph Filicetti told the local KTVB7 news station. Her husband is caring for the newborn while she is incarcerated.   
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/andrea-shaw-idaho-mother-twins-died-8-days-after-vaccinations-charged-murder/

  K.P. Stoller MD, They Vaccinated Her Twins. The Babies Died. Now They’re Charging the Mother With Murder.
The heartbreaking case of Andrea Shaw exposes everything wrong with America’s untouchable vaccine program
  Andrea Shaw did what responsible parents are supposed to do. She told the pediatrician there was a family history of severe reactions to vaccines, specifically the flu shot.
  The doctor dismissed her concerns.
On April 23, 2025, the twins received the flu vaccine, Hepatitis A, and DTaP. Within hours they became lethargic and ill. The next morning their lips were blue. They could barely move.
  The emergency room doctor literally diagnosed them with a “post-immunization reaction.”
The symptoms continued. One week later, Andrea found both toddlers unresponsive. She called for help.
  And from that moment, the system turned on her.
Police immediately treated the parents as suspects. They floated theories of asphyxiation and “postpartum blackout.” They ignored the documented medical reaction that began the day after the shots. The family filed a VAERS report.
  Instead of investigating the vaccines, authorities spent over a year building a homicide case against the grieving mother.   
https://kpstoller.substack.com/p/they-vaccinated-her-twins-the-babies

  Exclusive: Sen. Ron Johnson Demands Journal Turn Over Records Related to SIDs and Vaccines Study
In a letter made public today, Sen. Ron Johnson called on the editor-in-chief of Toxicology Reports and the CEO of Elsevier, which owns the journal, to release all records related to the decision to remove vaccine researcher Neil Z. Miller’s peer-reviewed analysis of VAERS data showing that many more SIDS reports were filed in VAERS in the first few days after vaccination compared to later on after vaccination.   
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/exclusive-sen-ron-johnson-demands-journal-turn-over-records-related-sids-vaccines-study/

  Steve Kirsch, Data from a large autism specialty medical practice shows over 50% of sudden regression autism happened within 2 days after vaccination
  I was finally able to find an autism specialty practice to share their patient data summary statistics with me. The data is preliminary but the statistics leave little room for doubt.   https://kirschsubstack.com/p/data-from-a-large-autism-specialty

  Maryanne Demasi, Ph.D.   ‘Germ Games’: Gates, World Bank, NIH Modeled Pandemic Response After U.S. Military War Games
In January 2016, senior figures from the Gates Foundation and the World Bank proposed a new approach to pandemic preparedness: large-scale simulations modeled on military war games. Newly obtained internal emails show how the idea — referred to as “Germ Games” — gained rapid momentum and gained favor with the NIH.​   https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/germ-games-gates-world-bank-nih-pandemic-response-u-s-military-war-games/

​Jessica Rose Ph.D details stated-assumptions which are just wrong: Fact check of new Lancet paper authored by mRNA tech developer Anna Blakney et al.
Persistence, integration, and the gene therapy questions​   https://jessicar.substack.com/p/fact-check-of-new-lancet-paper-authored

​  Meryl Nass MD, Evidence showing who paid to go after doctors who challenged the COVID narratives: Big Pharma. But there is a lot more to be discovered about money changing hands. I missed this from 2023.   https://merylnass.substack.com/p/evidence-showing-who-paid-to-go-after

  Dr. Marian Laderoute explains how some cells of your immune system disappear in their successful efforts:Trained immunity of M1-like foamy macrophages: A key role of human endogenous retrovirus K102 particles. - How disappearing foamy macrophages generate reductions in all cause mortality.   https://hervk102.substack.com/p/trained-immunity-of-m1-like-foamy

  Paul Marik MD shows evidence for benefits from green tea, vitamin-D, Curcumin, omega-3 fats, healthful diet and exercise:   Preventing Cancer: The ROOT Protocols By Paul Marik, MD and Justus Hope, MD   https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/preventing-cancer-the-root-protocols

  Dr. Marik on stress hormones facilitating cancer growth and spread, and blocking them: Propranolol and the Stress–Cancer Axis​ - Blocking the stress hormones   https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/propranolol-and-the-stresscancer

A Japanese frog intestinal bacterium, injected intravenously, eradicated colon cancer in mice. A Frog Derived Bacterium that Fights Cancer on Two Fronts   https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/a-frog-derived-bacterium-that-fights


Sustaining Healthy Microbiomes (pictured with repeatedly-weeded  black-eyed pea patch)   

Posted by John Day at 7:29 PM No comments:
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Saturday, July 4, 2026

Helen of desTroy's Sesterocentennial False Flag Alert

 Invited Guests,


  Helen does good research, and her Spidey-Sense is tingling about a false flag attack with "unforgettable fireworks", or something to that effect.
There are foreshadowings and some scrubbed-trails she enumerates.
Substack does not want to disseminate this post. She had problems getting it out to readers, and I tried to restack it, but Substack would not restack it, somehow.

I am therefore sending it as a headline and a link for your consideration today.   https://helenofdestroy.substack.com/p/urgent-potential-false-flag-warning

Urgent - Potential False Flag Warning - Please Share

Freedom 250 is Big Parasite's ritual sacrifice of the American spirit. Let's not let them pile a literal human sacrifice on top


Innocent Bystander​ with Sesterocentennial salsa, canned today


Posted by John Day at 1:13 PM No comments:
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Friday, July 3, 2026

Franz Kafka's Birthday

 Weekend Partygoers,


  Franz Kafka, born July 3, 1883 in Prague, Bohemia (Czech Republic, now) would be 143 years old today. Josh Mitteldorf wishes this prescient visionary of our post-modern epoch a Happy Birthday:   https://joshmitteldorf.substack.com/p/from-kafkaesque-to-uber-kafkaesque
  Kafka would "appreciate" our modern human struggles to thrive within a machine that promises growth, having just shrunken per-capita-prosperity for 25 years.

  The Honest Sorcerer, Infinite Growth Delusions Continue - For Now​ - When conflict of interests meets reality
According to the data published in the latest release of the Statistical Review of World Energy, infinite growth continued unabated in 2025—this time with “renewables” at the helm. But what is underpinning this unabated growth in energy consumption? Do we have the resources needed to continue with this trend? ​  According to the report—or at least to the message it tries to convey—the answer is a resounding ‘Yes, without a doubt.’ In fact, and as you will see from the data presented below, the opposite is true: the world economy is facing a complex predicament, which will force it to contract...​
..According to the newly released report, total energy supply in 2025 increased by 1.7% over the previous year, with solar power accounting for the vast majority of this growth. Despite solar’s rapidly increasing share of world energy—now at 8.7%—all other forms of energy use continued to expand in absolute terms, including fossil fuels. Coal, oil and gas use have all increased throughout 2025, and still accounted for 86% of all energy supplied to the economy. Contrary to the stories we tell ourselves the energy transition still hasn’t started yet: wind and solar are still mere additions to an ever growing pile of carbon based fuels...
​..The Authors of the Statistical Review are building a bridge to nowhere, based on a blind faith in infinite growth on a finite planet.
Perhaps the best example of this is Insight 2: Energy security in a changing world — How the 1970s oil shocks shifted energy patterns (page 8-9). After misidentifying the problem as an issue rooted solely in politics and war, while forgetting to mention that the then largest producer and consumer of oil in the world by far (the US) has passed it’s own domestic peak in conventional oil production in 1970, then suffered a 15% drop in output making its economy extremely vulnerable to external shocks, the report suggests that the crisis was eventually solved by other sources of energy (coal, gas, nuclear) taking up the slack. While the reference to the present crisis around Hormuz is not explicitly there, it is very hard to miss: ‘Don’t worry so much about oil, solar is here to save us!’...

..Looking at Oil Regional consumption by product group a number of slow changes in oil use over the decades becomes visible. After the dual shock of the 70’s refineries increasingly focused on making more diesel and gasoline from the same barrel at the cost of “sacrificing” fuel oil. In 1980 roughly a quarter of a barrel was refined into gasoline globally, another quarter found its way into diesel fuel, while slightly more than a quarter was burned as fuel oil (marine fuels and crude oil directly used in power plants). The remaining part was turned into jet fuel, naphtha, solvents, lubricants, bitumen, wax etc.—essential inputs needed by the wider economy. Over the 1980 to 2018 period, however, oil’s use as a fuel has shrunk to a mere 7%, while refineries were still turning half of each barrel into road fuels and a steady 7-8% into jet fuel...
..A growing portion of the barrels consumed around the world is increasingly coming in the form of ethane, naphtha, propane and butane. These substances are produced mostly as a by-product of processing natural gas (hence their name) but have very little to do with the real thing: a thick brownish-black liquid called crude oil. And while NGLs can still be used as precursors (raw materials) in manufacturing plastics and for filling cooking gas cylinders—they have little to no use in making more road and aviation fuels...
..Increases in the global consumption of transportation fuels (gasoline, diesel and jet fuel) have become strictly limited by the amount of “real” crude oil we could add into the mix. Consequently growth in fuel supply was capped at an average rate of 1.5% per annum from 1980 up until 2018, closely following increases in world crude oil supply. Then something broke—a full 2 years ahead of the pandemic...
..In 1980 every barrel of oil equivalent (boe) energy invested into drilling resulted in 30 new barrels recovered on a global average, this number is well below 10 by now, meaning that more and more energy needs to be reinvested into getting energy, leaving an ever smaller surplus for the rest of the economy...
​..If Rystad’s estimates are correct, about a half as much oil will be available than today by 2050… Food for thought. So why is this alarming trend not discussed in the Statistical Review? Why have they removed the state of proven oil reserves from their report? Because, perhaps, these reserves stopped growing and had to be revised downward? Well, according to Rystad Energy this is precisely the case—too bad they, too, have removed this information from their website later (here is an archived version):
​  “Global recoverable oil resources, including estimates for undiscovered fields, stabilized at approximately 1.5 trillion barrels. The most significant revision over the last 10 years has been in yet-to-find resources, where our projection has been reduced by 456 billion barrels. This is due to a steep decline in frontier exploration, unsuccessful shale developments outside the Americas and a doubling in offshore costs over the past five years. Rystad Energy expects reserve replacements from new conventional oil projects to be less than 30% of production over the next five years, while exploration would replace only about 10%.”
​  Another study from the IEA, published last year, found that as oil fields mature (read: deplete) production decline accelerates. At first just by a little, which can be easily offset by enhanced oil recovery techniques, then ever faster and faster… Till the increased energy and material investment needed to keep the juices flowing no longer worth it, and extraction stops. Bad news is that, in 2024, around 80% of global oil production and 90% of natural gas production came from fields that had passed their peak in production...​
..There is nothing left to be sacrificed: if oil production falls—either due to wars, or due to a global peak in production whenever it comes—the economy falls with it.
​  Diesel fuel, the most valuable portion of the barrel cannot be substituted with electricity at scale either, as agriculture, mining and long distance trucking (not to mention construction) are still completely dependent on this fuel. And without these activities, there is no copper, zinc, nickel, silicon—or anything needed to make “renewables” plus the gazillion electric devices, batteries, transformers, high voltage lines etc. needed to build a ‘smart’ grid to accommodate them. Average citizens buying electric vehicles will not and cannot change that picture—only worsen it by hasting mineral depletion. (In fairness the same goes ​for driving gas guzzlers.) See, contrary to the impression conveyed by the authors of this report various energy sources are neither fungible beyond a certain limited degree, nor infinite: as each depend on mining non-renewable resources to depletion.​   
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/infinite-growth-delusions-continue

​  Surplus Energy Economics, Dr. Tim Morgan has a dark view, presented dip[lomatically here:  PARKING THE THESIS​ 
It’s been said that travelling hopefully is better than arriving, but there comes a point at which even the most sluggish and reluctant train pulls into the station. When that happens, the locomotive and the rolling stock are parked in the sidings, leaving the passenger with new decisions to make.
​  Back in 2013, when the Surplus Energy Economics project began, it was possible to suspect that the fading out of the fossil fuel impetus, first harnessed during the industrial revolution, might be pointing towards a pretty imminent ending of economic growth.
​  Today, through the application of a series of fundamental precepts, we can know, and at very high levels of confidence, that the economy has stopped expanding, and is heading into contraction.​..
[long, detailed part] ...
​..A perfectly plausible post-growth model exists, one in which top-down, centralised institutions fail, and are replaced by localised, bottom-up alternatives, which operate at a more human scale, and are more in keeping with environmental sustainability. The astute will be starting to create these localised alternatives even before over-centralised systems collapse.
​  At the same time, and as the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services retreats, an economy increasingly starved of surplus energy will become progressively more labour-intensive.
​  The problem, as ever, is ‘getting from A to B’, when “A” is a society hubristically wedded to notions of infinite growth whilst “B” is a more stable-state situation better geared to meeting needs than to fostering the avaricious psychology of consumerism and paper wealth.
​  Our understanding of finance, when benchmarked to the material, should inform us that the moment of monetary failure will coincide with the attainment of absolute peak valuation.
​  Policy desperation will combine with ignorance of economic processes to ensure that a theoretical wealth based on non-monetizable notation, and on a complete inability to match claim with substance, will hit its zenith at the very point at which markets complete their failure, and money is stripped of the only substantive value that it can ever possess.​   
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/07/01/327-surplus-energy-economics/#like-45966

​  Gail Tverberg, Why Oil Shortages May Bring Lower Prices–and Recession
There have recently been many warnings about near-term oil shortages stemming from the conflict in Iran. Most analysts assume that shortages mean higher prices. As I will explain, the dynamics of a self-organizing economy suggest the opposite outcome — lower prices, deepening recession, and shortages of goods and services that have little to do with price.​   https://gailtverberg.substack.com/p/why-oil-shortages-may-bring-lower

​  A "glut" is more supply than demand. Since oil supply can't increase much, if at all, this prediction implies global economic Demand-Destruction, doesn't it?  
Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Inventory Rebuild Won’t Prevent 2027 Supply Glut​   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sachs-warns-oil-inventory-rebuild-wont-prevent-2027-supply-glut

​  Iran Runs Into Big Problem: No Buyers For Its Oil, As Full Tankers Pile Up Off China
As we suspected a month ago, China's economy is in far worse shape than telegraphed, and as a result it does not need Iranian oil (what oil it does need it just sources from its massive strategic reserves).
​  In Early June we said that confirming our recent reporting on China's oil demand collapse, crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest since October 2017 because of the price spike resulting from the Persian Gulf tanker traffic disruption, plunging refinery margins (due to price ceilings imposed by Beijing), of a slowing economy and the rapid slowdown in the economy.
​  The May total stood at 33 million barrels, or 7.8 million barrels daily, Bloomberg reported, citing Chinese customs data. This is roughly a 30% drop vs the average daily import rate of 11.6 million barrels last year. As previously noted, refinery run rates are down as well, as are fuel exports, with Beijing careful to make sure there is enough diesel and gasoline for the domestic market. All this is happening as the latest batch of Chinese data was "shockingly bad", promptly fears of a China hard landing.​   
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iran-runs-big-problem-no-buyers-its-oil-full-tankers-pile-china

​  US officials feared Israel was plotting to kill head Iranian negotiators: report
​ The US believed Israel was plotting to kill Iran’s head negotiators in the middle of the peace talks, with America going as far as to warn Tehran through third party countries of the risks, officials said.
​  Fears that Israel could derail the fledgling peace talks spiked in April as America believed the Jewish state had their eyes on Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, The New York Times reported.
​  The two leaders would go on to approve the current peace deal with the US. If they were killed, it would have likely prolonged the conflict as previous assassinations by Israel have.​..
..American-Iranian negotiations had previously been halted with an Israeli strike that killed Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national security official who had been leading the negotiations in March.
​  Despite the clear orders to keep Araghchi and Ghalibaf alive, American officials still held concerns that Israel would still try to assassinate them, pushing the US to ask countries in the Middle East to warn Iran about the possibility of an attack, sources told the Times.​..
..The fears appeared all the more real during Ghalibaf’s trip to Pakistan to meet with Vice President JD Vance in April...
..During the flight, Iran’s security forces notified the plane about an alleged Israeli plan to attack the aircraft, with two Israeli fighter jets detected entering the Islamic republic’s airspace, two officials told the outlet...
..Ghalibaf had previously survived two attacks from the US and Israel during the latest war and in the 12 Day war last year.
​  The account echoes the claims from Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Ghalibaf, who said the plane was forced to make an emergency landing in Mashhad, Iran’s closest airport to Pakistan.
​  The delegation was forced to take an eight hour trip by land to Tehran due to the security concerns, Mohammadi said.
Ghalibaf would go on to travel with Araghchi to Qatar and then to Switzerland last month for another in-person meeting with Vance and American negotiators.​   
https://nypost.com/2026/07/02/world-news/us-officials-feared-israel-was-plotting-to-kill-head-iranian-negotiators-report/

​  The Hormuz Letter: BREAKING: Israel was plotting to kill Iran's chief negotiator Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi to undermine peace talks this spring, with Israeli fighter jets entering Iranian airspace to directly attack Ghalibaf's plane returning from Islamabad talks with Vance, forcing an immediate emergency landing in Mashhad, per US officials speaking to NYT.
Shortly before, the US had gone as far as warning Iran through other countries in the region that Israel would target the two officials, which led to the emergency landing and other safety measures. An Israeli security official responded to the NYT report telling i24 News, "If and when Israel wants to eliminate anyone, it does so."   
https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2072782565501767743

​  Will Israel attack? Saudi Delegation Makes Unexpected Appearance In Tehran For Start Of Ayatollah's Funeral
Friday and Saturday kick off what will be up to a week of solemn funeral observances for slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - a major historic event which is expected to draw some 15 to 20 million mourners in Tehran and across Iranian cities.
​  Iran on Thursday issued a warning to the United States and Israel, Reuters reported:
​  "We warn the enemies of Iran, especially the U.S. and the Zionist regime (Israel), to avoid any miscalculation and to think about the harsh retaliation our armed forces would make to any threat and aggression against our country," Ali Abdollahi, commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said.​..
..Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Waleed El Khereiji and his delegation have showed up in Tehran to pay their respects - though they weren't officially expected, per Iranian state publications...
​..One delegation which was indeed expected, and has arrived amid the cameras are the Russians, headed by Dmitry Medvedev, former president and now Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council.​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/saudi-delegation-makes-unexpected-appearance-tehran-start-ayatollahs-funeral

​  Moon of Alabama,  War On Iran: – Vance-Rubio Struggle – Oman Supports ‘Fees’
Vice President JD Vance was heavily involved in the ceasefire MoU with Iran. The first part of the Memorandum extended the ceasefire to Lebanon and was supposed to guarantee it sovereignty.
  At the same time or shortly thereafter Secretary of State Marco Rubio negotiated an agreement with Lebanon and Israel which guarantees a continuation of the Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanese land.
  The Lebanon agreement is thus a direct attack on the MoU with Iran.
Via The Cradle we find some interesting speculation how this is an expression of a power struggle within Trump’s White House coterie:
  The agreement between Lebanon and Israel cannot be understood through bilateral negotiations alone. It also reflects shifting power dynamics in Washington, where US policy toward Lebanon is shaped not only by official institutions, but by competition within the administration and the Republican Party, alongside pressure from pro-Israel lobbying groups, particularly the Zionist lobby and the hardline Lebanese Christian lobby.… [This] is reflected in the quiet contest within the American right, particularly between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who represents the traditional pro-Israel Republican establishment, and Vice President JD Vance, whose camp has been more cautious about US involvement in West Asia.   
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/06/war-on-iran-vance-rubio-struggle-oman-supports-fees.html

​  Vance Says US Will Use Iran MoU To Replenish Global Oil Supply Then ‘See Where the Hand Is’
“And … if the Iranians are willing to make the commitments that we would like them to make and are willing to back those up with verifiable milestones, then we are going to change our relationship with Iran. And if they don’t do that, then nothing has really changed except for what we’ve already accomplished from the military campaign, which is a lot. So, we kind of have two options here. We have the option of pursuing a long-term deal with the Iranians, but that requires a significant change in their behavior. We have the option of banking our wins and then, of course, doing things on top of that if the president feels that we have to. And I think both of those options are very much in play,” he added.​..   
​..Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said in a post on X that Vance’s comments heightened suspicion in Iran that the war will restart despite the MoU. He made the comments in a post discussing the view in Iranian political circles that Israel may launch an attack before Israeli elections are held in October.
​  “Will Israel restart the war with Iran before the October elections? This is the consensus view emerging within Iran’s internal national security debate over the past week,” Parsi said.
https://news.antiwar.com/2026/07/01/vance-says-us-will-use-iran-mou-to-replenish-global-oil-supply-stockpiles-then-see-where-the-hand-is/

​   Trump plays good-cop:  Vance Warns 'US Has Options' As Iran Rejects Direct Doha Talks - Trump Insists Diplomacy Is 'Very Good'
 President Trump has simultaneously hailed "very good" talks on Iran in Doha - apparently just referencing envoys Witkoff and Kushner merely dialoguing with third country intermediaries.
​  On the same day, Vice President JD Vance played a little 'bad cop' - warning that if Iran fails to acquiesce and destabilizes the region that the US could respond, escalating in several ways. "If Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program, threaten its neighbors and support terrorism, President Trump has options to deal with it," Vance said.​   
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-briefed-full-scale-war-plans-still-eyes-diplomacy-iran-reminds-us-muzzle-your-pets 

​  Gold & Geopolitics​  Daily digest: 2026-07-03
The June jobs print (57k, roughly half expected) was the hinge of the day: gold decoupled from stocks and ripped while the memory/chip complex cratered, dragging Korea to the edge of a bear market and turning the AI-capex reflexivity trade. New overnight: the NYT reported Israel plotted to assassinate Iran's chief negotiators...
..June payrolls come in at 57k, ~half the ~113k expected — and gold treats bad news as bad news. Headline miss with April/May revised down a combined 74k, unemployment falling to 4.2% only because the labor force shrank ~700k. Confirmed by zerohedge, Kobeissi, Hedgeye. Gold reportedly jumped ~$60/oz in a single minute...
..Largest strike on Kyiv of the war. ~570 air-attack means (74 missiles + 496 drones) per Ukraine's Air Force (MilitarySummary); the mayor called it the most powerful strike since 2022 (MilitarySummary). At least 18 killed (zerohedge); civilian toll later put at 27...
​..Iran–Israel–Hormuz: capitulation on fees, escalation on the ground​ - Europe made peace with an Iranian Hormuz transit fee as "inevitable," urging only that Iran not discriminate on which vessels pay (zerohedge, dana916). WSJ says the US offered to release frozen funds for fee-free passage; Iran rejected it (AryJeayBackup). 
​  But the war track is re-arming: a source close to Ghalibaf says Israel is preparing a new round of operations, after Katz ordered the IDF to ready a "blue-and-white" op (HormuzLetter); Trump is moving more Marines to the Gulf (ProfessorPape). Khamenei's funeral prompted a mediated US-Iran pause​...
​..Separately, IDF casualties reported in clashes with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; rocket sirens near the border​...
​..Oil: SPR at a 1983 low as paper and physical keep diverging​ - The SPR fell to 326M barrels, lowest since 1983, a 13th straight weekly decline (Kobeissi). Saudi exports approached pre-war levels at 6.3M b/d over six days (zerohedge), while Iran can't place its barrels — 58M on the water, 90% with no destination (zerohedge). 
​  The physical-vs-paper case: few ships will sail to Hormuz, so ME tanks stay full and traders misread discounts as glut (JustDario); China quietly drained ~450M barrels of imports in June, masking tightness​... 
..OpenAI floats handing the Trump administration a 5% stake. Reported to "clear political obstacles," with other US labs expected to offer a similar cut...
​..Trump Inc.: the stake, the "Trump Accounts," the receipts​ - Beyond the OpenAI stake: Goldman is contributing to "Trump Accounts" for employees' children (zerohedge); Micron's $250M contribution earned a Trump "double pump" and a "+9 points" boast (Kobeissi) — the same Micron that took $3B of taxpayer money (JustDario).
​  The optics aren't great: Trump says his kids made him $1.4B in crypto, which he "had no idea" about (Nostra) — more than every public crypto-treasury company combined in 2025 (Hedgeye); disclosures show 21,000+ trades across eight accounts, ~80/day...​  
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-07-03

​  G​old & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-07-02
Big day, two deltas dominate. First, the AI trade inverted: Meta's plan to sell "excess" compute added ~$100B to its cap in a morning while the picks-and-shovels names (CoreWeave, Nebius, Corning, memory) got monkeyhammered — the market is now rewarding capex cuts, and Palantir's Karp went on TV to call the frontier labs parasites. Second, Russia hit Kyiv with the long-threatened "mega-strike" (~74 missiles incl. 12 un-intercepted Zircons, 10 civilians dead)...
..Korean market seizing up. Exchange activated sidecars to halt KOSPI and KOSDAQ program selling; leveraged KORU -30% "retail margin call massacre"; SK Hynix -8.2% (zerohedge). Koreans out of margin debt are now borrowing from banks to buy stocks...​
..AI: Meta sells "excess compute," market punishes the shovel-sellers
Meta reportedly building "Meta Compute" to rent data centers/models, rivaling AWS/Azure (zerohedge). The tell everyone seized on: if the biggest buyers are now sellers, what's actually scarce? ...
​..Broader accusation: an Anthropic mechanism covertly profiling users (ethnicity/timezone) via steganography (Arnaud Bertrand), with security researchers noting the jailbreaks matched existing open/Chinese-model capability (alexstamos). Sonnet 5 reportedly jailbroken in minutes.​   https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-07-02

​  New Bipartisan Bill Seeks to Outlaw Criticism of Israel and Jewish Power
Last year’s defeat of the Antisemitism Awareness Act (AAA) by a coalition of progressive Democrats and patriotic Republicans caught the Jewish community off guard.
​  According to a report by Jewish Insider, Chuck Schumer and his Republican collaborator’s attempt to sneak the AAA into the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act was thwarted when a coalition of nationalist podcasters such as Tucker Carlson and various Palestine sympathetic left-wing groups called attention to its draconian provisions and drew backlash to the bill.
​  Rather than give up, Jewish groups reeling from the defeat have decided to launch a renewed offensive, this time attacking opposition to their Zionist agenda at its root: freedom of speech, especially on social media.
​  In May and June, a bipartisan coalition of 15 House Republicans and 14 Democrats formally sponsored the Jewish American Security Act (JASA), a piece of legislation that if passed would constitute one of the most sweeping attacks on the First Amendment in American history. The bill enjoys practically universal backing from Jewish non-profits and Zionist activist groups.
​  The new law presents four major demands: the appointment of a specialized Anti-Semitism commissar to manage the Department of Education’s campaign combating pro-Palestinian activism on college campuses, a $1 billion dollar cash injection to “secure” Zionist non-profits and Jewish houses of worship, mandatory state monitoring of online social media platforms in order to force them to censor “anti-Semitic” political speech on their platforms, and officially reorienting the mission of the FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and National Counterintelligence and Security Center as instruments for targeting critics of Jews and Israel as foreign enemy actors and domestic terrorists.
​  On the education front, JASA strengthens and makes permanent Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14188 (“Additional Measures to Combat Antisemitism”), which emphasizes that Israelis are a protected class above criticism under the 1964 Civil Rights Act.​..
..Such a law, if passed, would treat figures as prominent as Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Megyn Kelly, Thomas Massie, Ana Kasparian, Ilhan Omar and Candace Owens, as well as many smaller critics that have arisen in recent years, as terrorists and enemies of the state.​   https://www.unz.com/estriker/new-bipartisan-bill-seeks-to-outlaw-criticism-of-israel-and-jewish-power/

​  Dennis Kucinich,  U.S.-Israel Military Merger Delayed: Here’s Why and How You Can Stop It
A procedural vote bought Congress—and the American people—one more chance to defend American sovereignty. 
​  Welcome to civics class, Washington, D.C. style.
​The Massie-Khanna Amendment, which would have removed the military merger from the bill, was not made in order by the House Rules Committee, which serves as the traffic cop on legislation, deciding which bills and which amendments move forward.
​  In this case, the Rules Committee played dirty cop and the fix was in to make sure the House would not be able to vote on the military merger because the amendment was simply not placed in the rule...
​..Before Members can vote on the underlying legislation, they must first vote separately on the rule. The rule establishes the terms of debate and determines which amendments may be considered.
​  If the rule goes down, the bill goes down with it.
Why Was the NDAA Vote Delayed?
​  Here is what happened.
Because of a dispute over the SAVE Act, the House voted down the rule. The NDAA never came before the House for debate or final passage. A disappointed Speaker adjourned the House until July 13.
​  As a consequence, the NDAA has not passed and the U.S.-Israel military merger it authorizes has not become law.
Yet.
​  When the House returns, the Rules Committee must meet again and draft a new rule. Based on what just happened in committee, there is every reason to believe the new rule will once again prevent any amendment from being offered to remove the military merger.​   
https://kucinichreport.substack.com/p/us-israel-military-merger-delayed

​  Richard Revelstoke explains that within the necessary flows of global economy, there are certain choke-points, which are controlled by certain competing capitalist factions, through which each faction profits and may harm or impair other factions, but the flow must continue, or all factions lose. None can control it all. 
​  Rheopolitics: The Power to Deny​  - A civilization survives because things continue to flow. Water. Electricity. Data. Money. Software. Energy. Food. Every modern society depends upon uninterrupted circulation. The actor capable of interrupting those flows possesses a form of power that previous civilizations had no real conception of — primarily, because the technology did not exist.
​  Consider SWIFT.​ - A sovereign state, domestically sound with its borders protected can be rendered impotent if it is unable to transact. Being excluded from SWIFT, by those who are able to exclude, is a far more deadly and cost effective weapon than tanks and artillery. A nation can be undefeated on land and sea, but destroyed by sanctions.​   https://www.themargins.ca/p/rheopolitics-the-power-to-deny

​  Richard Revelstoke presents the case that capitalism has recently broken down into 4 competing factions, is in decline, and that there is no apparent economic system to replace it. [I am not alone in asserting that post-growth economy must not allow usury, which necessitates economic growth, or slavery and collapse.] 
​  Permanent Planetary Turbulence​ - The Long Winte​r
Wolfgang Streeck is a German political economist, former director of the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies. His major work Buying Time (2014), and especially How Will Capitalism End? (2016) make the argument that capitalism is in a terminal crisis — not collapsing in a revolutionary moment, but running down over a long period because the institutions that stabilised it (the postwar settlement, the welfare state, embedded liberalism) are exhausted and there is no successor system being built.​   https://www.themargins.ca/p/permanent-planetary-turbulence

​  Caitlin Johnstone, The Gaza Ethnic Cleansing Agenda Continues To Roll Forward
The Adelson-owned pro-Netanyahu outlet Israel Hayom reports that in the coming weeks the so-called “Board of Peace” overseeing life in the Gaza Strip is planning to relocate Palestinians to “humanitarian shelters” that are not under Hamas control.
​  Israel Hayom reports that an area near the destroyed city of Rafah is the first location where such camps will be set up. This is noteworthy because one year ago defense minister Israel Katz stated that there was a plan to construct a “humanitarian city” on the ruins of Rafah, where “the emigration plan” for the Palestinians would then be implemented, adding that Benjamin Netanyahu was working on finding foreign nations to accept the population of Gaza.​   
https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/the-gaza-ethnic-cleansing-agenda

​  Thanks Lucy. Monsters Playing Victims​ - Danny Danon’s Twisted War on the Truth
​ Whether Israelis will ever comprehend the irreparable damage inflicted upon their country’s reputation by their UN Ambassador, Danny Danon, is a moot point. The damage Israel has done to itself through its barbaric practices in occupied Palestine is simply impossible to overcome.
​  Danon, however, utilizes a peculiar approach to defending Israel within international institutions: he relies on bullying, intimidation, and an overt attempt to silence anyone who dares to challenge the official Israeli narrative—particularly women leaders. Yet, what makes his behavior most outrageous is his deployment of these abrasive tactics to suppress an issue that demands the utmost sensitivity: the systemic use of sexual violence and human rights abuses against Palestinians.
​  The confrontation took place during a UN General Assembly session convened to mark the International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict. Senior UN officials were presenting harrowing findings documenting sexual violence against Palestinian detainees.​..
​..The immediate target of Danon’s wrath was Pramila Patten, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict. Instead of reflecting on the grim findings, Danon demanded Patten’s resignation. He accused her and the broader international community of harboring an “obsession” with targeting Israel.
​  When Vanessa Frazier, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict, attempted to intervene on a point of order per established protocol, Danon unleashed a vitriolic verbal assault. Refusing to yield, he shouted over her, ordering her to “be quiet” and drowning out the chamber with his outbursts. “Shame on you. You are part of this obsession,” Danon bellowed.​   
https://www.savageminds.co/p/monsters-playing-victims

​  Tibetan Man Sets Himself On Fire Outside UN Headquarters In New York
The Tibetan National Congress of New York and New Jersey said in a July 3 statement posted to Instagram that the man was a 52-year-old Tibetan activist named Lobsang Palden, also known as Lobga Rangzen, who has “​stated that the man was a 52-year-old Tibetan activist named Lobsang Palden, also known as Lobga Rangzen, who had “dedicated his life to participating in peaceful, non-violent demonstrations to expose China’s human rights abuses in Tibet.”
​  The organization said Rangzen broadcast a livestream on Facebook before self-immolating near the U.N. headquarters, in which he called for Tibetan independence and spoke about the Chinese occupation of Tibet.
​  The activist attributed his actions to his commitment to Tibet and emphasized that they were not driven by any personal circumstances, the Tibetan National Congress added.
​  In his final message, he said: “I don’t want you to mourn for me, I want you to continue the struggle for Tibetan independence, because the lack of independence is the root of all our problems,” according to the Tibetan National Congress.
​  “We must recognize and remember that Lobga Rangzen committed this act for the political freedom of Tibet,” Jamyang Norbu, founder of the Tibetan National Congress, said.​   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/tibetan-man-sets-himself-fire-outside-un-headquarters-new-york

​  White House Homeland Security Adviser Stephen Miller delivered a clear and forceful message: every Haitian national on Temporary Protected Status will be returned to Haiti under President Trump.​   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/miller-every-single-haitian-migrant-going-back-haiti-under-trump

​  Simplicius, SITREP 7/2/26: Another Massive Strike on Kiev, as Konstantinovka on the Brink
Last night Russia again struck Kiev with one of the most massive attacks of the war, after having saved up missiles and drones for the past couple weeks.​..
...Now in his latest interview C-in-C Oleksandr Syrsky has declared that Russia is preparing a major offensive on neighboring Chernigov region with the aim of potentially having another go at Kiev.​.. We’ve heard such rumors for years, but never directly from Syrsky himself.
​  One interesting thing he notes is that the Russian General Staff appears to have made several different contingencies, depending on how the situation unfolds, particularly vis-a-vis Belarus and whether Lukashenko allows Russia the use of its territory for launching an assault. One of the things this appears to imply is that Russia is playing it by ear and will consider utilizing Belarus depending on how things play out.
​  And which things could those be, that could trigger such a contingency? The most obvious answer: Belarus being forced into the war after being attacked by Ukraine. In short, it’s possible that the Russian General Staff is providing for a plan that should Belarus forcibly be brought into the war, then Russian troops will be able to use its territory without creating any ‘thorny’ political issues.​   
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-7226-another-massive-strike

  ​This quote is noteworthy:  John Helmer, THANK YOU, PRESIDENT PUTIN, FOR TRYING TO HAVE A BALANCING ACT
The Moscow source added: “I do not see Americans giving up on Pakistan again. It’s a cheap maintenance mistress to keep.  Chinese tried the more expensive Belt & Road approach – investing in nation building and infrastructure for China. Pakistan is a loss and a problem for the Chinese too. They treated Pakistan like a real country – they did not understand the nature of khans and their khanates.   Pakistani generals are Central Asian khans. Brits know how to deal with them and buy them. Chinese do not. The Americans simply pay the generals as they always have, and they get the biggest bang for their buck. That way they also keep the Indians all riled up,  and the Russians nervous and unsure what to do.”​    https://johnhelmer.net/thank-you-president-putin-for-trying-to-have-a-balancing-act/#more-94509

​  J​ohn Helmer, THE ANCHORAGE FORMULA WAS A TRUMP TRICK – PUTIN FELL FOR IT FOR A YEAR, SO NOW WHAT:  SACK DMITRIEV, DISMISS WITKOFF & KUSHNER, DESTROY NATO ARMS CONVOYS ENTERING UKRAINE FROM POLAND
​  Russia’s escalation options for ending the war on the original terms of the Special Military Operation of February 2022 are now too little, too late.
This is because demilitarization of the Ukrainian battlefield cannot stop or deter the rearmament of the NATO allies for permanent war against Russia.
​  Nor can denazification of the Kiev regime succeed when the NATO allies have become nazified, like the Trump regime in Washington. Militarization and nazification have become US empire  war aims against Russia.​.. They are planning the permanent war future in which the territorial concessions Putin agreed to in Anchorage a year ago – Crimea and the four Novorussian regions in exchange for a US guarantee of Russia’s security in Europe – will not produce the “the security of our country and our citizens, and the inviolability of Russia’s borders for decades ahead”. That was Putin’s promise to Russian voters in his first election campaign rally early this week (June 28).​..
..So what is the end-of-war plan now?​  “Our primary objective [is] the final liberation of Donbass and Novorossiya,” Putin continued. “We know that the West continues to pursue Russia’s strategic defeat. There have been occasional suggestions that this is no longer the case, but officially no one has abandoned that objective. The goal remains Russia’s strategic defeat.  If that is so, then why are they calling for a ceasefire and peace negotiations, and increasingly expressing a desire to take part in them?  If Ukraine is, as they claim, capturing more and more territory and liberating it – in other words, if it is winning – then Western leaders simply need to wait. Russia’s strategic defeat would, it would seem, come about of its own accord. So let them wait. Meanwhile, our troops will continue doing their job and will do everything necessary to achieve the objectives of the special military operation.” ​... 
​..In the discussion, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statement on the Anchorage Formula was contrasted with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s elaboration.
​ Rubio said: “There was no agreement in Alaska.  There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska.  If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war.  So as I said, the President is prepared, as the United States remains prepared, to play whatever constructive role we can to bring about an enduring end to this war in Ukraine, and which has been bloody – 25 – 20,000 soldiers killed every month; 5,000 a week, most of them Russian.  So it’s been debilitating for Europe, for the – but especially for Ukraine and for Russia increasingly.
​  So if they’re – we are prepared to step forward and play a constructive role, if there’s one for us to play, in bringing the parties together and bringing that war to an end.  That’s what the President’s tried to do now for a year and a half, but there was no agreement in Alaska.  There was a proposal made in Alaska, but it was never an agreement…
​..Lavrov replied the next day with a special press release from his Ministry: “It is imperative to elucidate the situation as we perceive it. I trust this will provide clarity for our audience.
​  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that, in Alaska, there were only proposals and no agreements concerning a settlement in Ukraine. Consequently, as he put it, it is unclear why Moscow appears so concerned. The reality of the situation is that, viewed in the broader context, several days prior to the Alaska meeting, US President’s Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, arrived in Moscow bringing those very proposals from President Donald Trump. We duly took them into account. President of Russia Vladimir Putin pledged to present his response during the Alaska meeting.
​  Subsequently, in Anchorage, as the two presidents sat down for negotiations – and I must note that Marco Rubio and your humble servant were also present – President Vladimir Putin, addressing Steve Witkoff, who was likewise in attendance, began to enumerate the US proposals point by point. Following each item, in the presence of US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he enquired of Steve Witkoff whether he had accurately captured the ideas brought to Moscow ahead of Anchorage.
​  To each of these queries, Steve Witkoff responded in the affirmative. Therefore, when my colleague Marco Rubio contends that only proposals were made in Alaska and no agreement was reached, I am left to question what precisely is meant by “agreement.” If one party, in this case the United States, puts forward its proposals for a settlement – for an approach to resolving this crisis – and the other party expresses concurrence with these proposals, then to state that no agreement was reached appears, to put it mildly, somewhat inelegant.
​  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also remarked, at another engagement somewhere in the Middle East, that the United States stands ready to move forward and play a constructive role, should the opportunity arise. In his words, bringing the parties together and bringing an end to this war is precisely what US President Donald Trump has been endeavouring to achieve for a year and a half.
​  All of this, presumably, may be “credited’ as confirmation that there were indeed American proposals in Alaska, which we accepted. However, the quotation I have just referenced prompts a further question. I am referring to Secretary Marco Rubio’s recent testimony during hearings in Congress, during which he stated that the United States cannot act as a mediator because it supports Ukraine.
​  Yet, when an interest is expressed in the United States playing a constructive role, in uniting the parties – this already begins to resemble a claim to mediation. It is, of course, necessary to bring clarity to the entirety of this situation. Nevertheless, the fact remains: in Alaska, the US proposals were discussed and were accepted by the Russian side.”  ​  
https://johnhelmer.net/the-anchorage-formula-was-a-trump-trick-putin-fell-for-it-for-a-year-so-now-what-sack-dmitriev-dismiss-witkoff-kushner-destroy-nato-arms-convoys-entering-ukraine-from-poland/#more-94527

​  Gilbert Doctorow has insights as to Putin's war strategy. Please read carefully: Further thoughts on 'ethnic cleansing' as a Russian war objective
I am surprised that it took me so long to understand the logic to Vladimir Putin’s dragging out a war that he could conclude instantly via decapitation strikes on the political and military leadership in Kiev.
​  I called this process ‘ethnic cleansing’ in the full knowledge that the term is highly emotive. Indeed, one reader wrote to me directly, telling me that it is a form of ‘genocide.’ That goes to show how our language has been corrupted. ‘Ethnic cleansing’ such as one can see going on in Donbas is saving lives rather than taking lives. It is precisely the opposite of the American way of war, meaning indiscriminate carpet bombing of territory that you intend to take possession of. Moreover, the ongoing ethnic cleansing has the support of the Ukrainian government: it is they who try to withdraw to safety behind Ukrainian lines the entire population of towns under threat of Russian seizure. Indeed some residents of such towns and hamlets head West under compulsory evacuations. Others head east to the Russian side. And a minority of the core populations, mostly the elderly who cannot move, stay put and await ‘liberation’ by advancing Russian troops.​..
..Russia will rebuild these hamlets and towns just as it has done in the heavily destroyed cities in the eastern territories of Donbas, so that they will soon be repopulated by loyal pro-Russians.​..
​..I do not believe that this was a war objective in February 2022, which was more about countering an imminent threat of Ukrainian armed recovery of the Donbas from rebel forces, which would have amounted to murderous ethnic cleansing in the traditional sense. It was also about pushing NATO out of Ukraine and thereby removing a strategic threat to the Russian Federation. However, as the war evolved, objectives of the Kremlin also changed and reversing the Ukrainization of the Donbas rose as a new and achievable objective. However, this process has dragged on and on, while rising U.S. and NATO attacks on the Russian heartland now render untenable the slow meatgrinder activities. A decisive end to the war by decapitation of the Kievan junta becomes more urgent. And I believe such a strike will take place now that nearly all of the Donbas is in Russian hands and now that the September Duma elections are approaching. ‘Neutralizing’ the neo-Nazi junta in Kiev would steal victory for the United Russia party out of the jaws of defeat.​   https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/further-thoughts-on-ethnic-cleansing

​    Leader of Germany’s most popular party wants to restore ties with Russia
Bringing back cheap Russian energy would help the German economy recover, AfD leader Alice Weidel has said​   https://web.archive.org/web/20260630223220/https://www.rt.com/news/642417-germany-party-restore-ties-russia/

​  Their banner says, "When the power of love defeats the love of power, the world ​knows peace". An audacious climb turned into a marriage proposal. The couple was soon arrested
​   A daredevil couple scaled the Empire State Building's antenna Wednesday and unfurled a banner about "the power of love" and peace, apparently as part of an audacious, high-altitude marriage proposal — soon followed by their arrest.
​  The Russian climbers, who go by Angela Nikolau and Ivan Beerkus, were the subject of the 2024 Netflix documentary "Skywalkers: A Love Story" about their "rooftopping" exploits and budding romance.​   
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/an-audacious-climb-turned-into-a-marriage-proposal-the-couple-was-soon-arrested

World's Largest Data Center Project On Verge Of Collapse After Blackstone Unexpectedly Pulls Out​   https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/worlds-largest-data-center-campus-verge-collapse-after-blackstone-unexpectedly-pulls-out

Centrus Energy Signs Billion Dollar Contract With DOE For Uranium Enrichment​   https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/centrus-energy-signs-billion-dollar-contract-doe-uranium-enrichment

Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump's Birthright Citizenship Executive Order​   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/supreme-court-strikes-down-trumps-birthright-citizenship-curbs

FBI Mole Wore Wire Inside Newsom's Inner Circle: Lawyer​   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fbi-mole-wore-wire-inside-newsoms-inner-circle-lawyer

​The deep-state project to kill Trump failed embarrasingly: Secret Service Missed 102 Warnings Before Trump Assassination Attempt In Butler: Report   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/secret-service-missed-102-warnings-trump-assassination-attempt-butler-report

​  Outgoing UK PM “Proud To Have The GAYEST Parliament Of All Time Anywhere In The World”
“I don’t think there is any Parliament that is gayer than this Parliament”​   
https://modernity.news/2026/07/01/outgoing-uk-pm-proud-to-have-the-gayest-parliament-of-all-time-anywhere-in-the-world/

​  I think this is ​sometimes done to reduce risk of deadly violence: Watch: Shocking Footage Of Britain's Two-Tier Policing
In the latest sickening example of two-tier policing under Keir Starmer's government, a female officer in Birmingham charged straight into a street attack, shielded the three black aggressors, and then turned her aggression on their white British victim - an inebriated teenager who had just been randomly assaulted.
​  While the attackers dispersed without consequence, multiple officers swarmed the white lad, barked obscenities at him, shoved him into a police car the wrong way round, and then dragged him back out again.
​  A bystander who tried to explain that the white kid was the victim was completely ignored.​   
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-shocking-footage-britains-two-tier-policing

​  Pakistan has not been offered the right amount of money yet, have they? You Simply Will Not Believe This…
A convicted predator who helped destroy the lives of vulnerable girls as young as 13 is days away from freedom in Britain, while Pakistan refuses to take him and archaic rules shield him from removal.
​  Shabir Ahmed’s case lays bare how legal technicalities, political cowardice, and a refusal to enforce borders have turned the country into a revolving door for the most dangerous offenders.
​  Ahmed, now 73, arrived in the UK long before 1973 as a Commonwealth citizen. He was convicted in 2012 at Liverpool Crown Court on multiple counts of rape, aiding and abetting rape, sexual assault, and trafficking for sexual exploitation. He treated at least one victim as property, abusing her on an almost weekly basis. ​  Part of a gang of nine men operating out of takeaways in the Heywood area of Rochdale, Ahmed and his associates targeted working-class girls from broken backgrounds.​   
https://modernity.news/2026/06/30/you-simply-will-not-believe-this/

​  BREAKING: Multi-Year Study of 808 Embalmers Across 5 Countries Finds 75.2% Observed Unusual White Fibrous Clots in Corpses
The anomalous clots were estimated to be present in 23.4% of all embalmed corpses overall.​   
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-multi-year-study-of-808

​  Lots of deaths after the first dose: VAERS data shows the original Gardasil vaccine was unsafe
If the vaccines are safe, the number of deaths reported after dose 1 vs. dose 3 should be statistically similar. They were not the same. There was a 13-fold difference in death reports.​   https://kirschsubstack.com/p/vaers-data-shows-the-original-gardasil

​  Cancers adapt to treatments and treatments have to adjust, based on tumor response: Why Randomized Controlled Trials Are Poorly Suited to Testing Repurposed Drugs and Nutraceuticals in Cancer - The Case for Well-Conducted Observational Studies, Paul Marik MD   https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/why-randomized-controlled-trials

Paul Marik MD, Honokiol: The Natural Compound That Reaches the Brain and Targets Cancer Stem Cells   https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/honokiol-the-natural-compound-that

  Eat your curry: Dr. Marik, Curcumin: Nature's Most Powerful Anti-Cancer Compound
Why this ancient spice targets cancer metabolism, cancer stem cells, inflammation, and the tumor microenvironment.​   https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/curcumin-natures-most-powerful-anti

​  Steve Kirsch, Worldwide government statistics show deaths increased sharply after the COVID shots rolled out
Both peaks and troughs increased post COVID vaccine. It was supposed to go the other way if the shots worked.​   https://kirschsubstack.com/p/the-government-statistics-they-dont

​  Liability shield remains: HHS Terminates the COVID-19 Emergency Use Authorization Declarations Covering mRNA Shots, Drugs, and Biologics
The COVID emergency framework is finally ending, but the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA injections have already moved beyond it.​   
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-hhs-terminates-the-covid

​  Kennedy Ends Emergency Use Authorization for Covid Vaccines​ - HHS Secretary Kennedy Pulls Emergency Use Authorization for Covid Vaccines, But Insures They're Still Available for All Who Want Them​   https://www.themahareport.com/p/kennedy-ends-emergency-use-authorization

​"Target Fixation": Why Drivers Hit Cyclists They Clearly See (I'm a Lawyer)   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9etdPVptBo

  Climate Physicist, Anastassia Makarieva,  They Are Working: Forests, Rainfall, and Rethinking “Sustainable Forestry”
An edited MEER Podcast conversation on the biotic pump, intact forest resilience, the climatic work of natural ecosystems, and the pace of scientific change​   https://bioticregulation.substack.com/p/they-are-working-forests-rainfall

​
Gardening Couple squinting into the sun with new pea-patch


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John Day
1958 baby boomer, Buddhist, bicyclist, military-brat, kitchen-gardener, public health doctor, interested in life, the universe and everything.
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