Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Planning For Summer

 Oil Shocked,


  This summer is going to be a modern version of the gas lines in 1974 and 1979. That much is already baked-in, because the transit time from the Strait of Hormuz is a couple of months, and the US is rapidly depleting the strategic petroleum reserve, which was already depleted, by selling it on the global market.
  Oil, natural gas, sulfer, helium and nitrogen fertilizer supplies are all knocked down hard and will stay down everywhere until early July, even if the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow. 
  Global agriculture will be hit hard, with much reduced fall harvests, so grain and bean stocks will be depleted. Poor countries will be hit this year by poor rice crops, and traditionally more wealthy countries will be hit by price rises this year, then tighter supplies next year. UK farmers are reportedly being told to get rid of half of their cows.
  Most people do not recall the impact of the 1973-1974 Arab Oil Embargo, but it was a big, hard systemic shock that everybody in an embargoed country really experienced, and had to adapt to. People changed, cars changed, and government policies changed. 
  Imagine that you can't drive or fly anywhere this summer. What might you do instead? What if it stayed that way for a couple of years? What if you lose your job?

Professor Ugo Bardi, 50+ years of World Models: Collapse, Collapse, Collapse - The Way the Universe Works​
image.png
​  Above, you see five “standard run” scenarios, starting from the first Limits to Growth calculations of 1972, to very recent ones (there are others; this is just a sample). The model is always the same, “Word3” but with updated data, and slightly different assumptions. Note that the population peak has been moving back from ca 2050 in 1972, to around 2030 nowadays...
..Now, a question: why do all these models predict collapse? An accusation that was often made to the authors of the first “The Limits to Growth” report, in 1972, was that collapse was built into the models. Hence, it was said, collapse is an ideological feature that modelers inserted into their models...
..Yet, it is starting to appear that the assumptions at the basis of these models were NOT just reflections of how the authors saw the world. They were based on physics, even though this point was not explicitly stated.
​  I am working right now on a paper that quantifies the trajectory of complex systems as a function of the availability of resources and the impact of pollution — the “core” of the LTG world models. It turns out that you CAN generate the growth and decline curves starting from the first two principles of thermodynamics, energy conservation, and entropy generation, together with the Maximum Power Principle (MPP), sometimes said to be the 4th principle of thermodynamics.​ 
​  Here is the abstract (provisional)
​  The Hubbert curve, originally proposed in 1956 as a phenomenological description of oil-field production, has long resisted derivation from independent principles. We show that the curve emerges as the structural consequence of a thermodynamic chain combining four established results: the Gouy–Stodola theorem on irreversible processes, the Lotka–Odum maximum power principle (MPP) for biological energy harvesting, the Curzon–Ahlborn endoreversible bound for heat engines operating at maximum power, and the two-stock model of Bardi and Lavacchi (2009) for resource depletion under autocatalytic capital reinvestment. Within this framework, the symmetric bell-shaped Hubbert curve is the prediction of the model in its simplest form, while the asymmetric “Seneca” curves observed empirically arise from named symmetry-breaking termscapacity depreciation, EROI decline, pollution feedback, and best-first extraction — each with a clear thermodynamic interpretation. The synthesis suggests that the descent phase of fossil-energy civilization is not an empirical curiosity but a thermodynamic prediction, and that its asymmetry is structural rather than accidental.​   
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/50-years-of-world-models-collapse

​PANIC NOW!  ;-o  EIGHT WEEKS TO EMPTY SHELVES. SIXTY DAYS TO FAMINE. WHAT CAUSED IT, AND WHAT YOU NEED TO DO IMMEDIATELY   https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/eight-weeks-to-empty-shelves-sixty-days-to-famine-what-caused-it-and-what-you-need-to-do-immediately

  Gail Tverberg knows there will be oil shortages, but presents the questions of how societies choose to deal with them. The Hormuz War is, I believe, a way of dealing with the decline of net oil, which has irreversibly begun. Forced cutbacks are the "solution".  China and US Trade Talks: A Solution for Oil Shortages?
China may also be a key to ending the Iran conflict​   
​  The war with Iran is not going well. It is difficult to supply US troops with adequate food and other necessities. With summer arriving soon, the region will soon be an even more inhospitable place for ground troops to fight. An underlying problem is that the world economy was reaching resource limits even before the Iran War began, adding to the difficulties.
​  The most pressing resource limit is distillate fuel oil–an industry term for what we think of as diesel and jet fuel. This fuel is heavily used in transportation. It is also used extensively in agriculture and industry. Somehow, the system needs to cut back on these fuels for international trade so that more fuel is available for agriculture and industry.​   
https://gailtverberg.substack.com/p/china-and-us-trade-talks-a-solution

​  Nate Hagens and Art Berman were prominent contributors to The Oil Drum blog, along with Gail Tverberg. A World On the Precipice: The Last Oil Tanker From the Strait of Hormuz has Arrived – Now What?   The Great Simplification #220 with Art Berman   https://natehagens.substack.com/p/a-world-on-the-precipice-the-last

  Alex Krainer reports on the English farmer who got a letter saying to get rid of half of his cows for "Net Zero": Racing toward "Absolute Zero"
It's very real: the Epstein class is dead serious about 'getting rid of the poor people,' and creating an Orwellian totalitarian society.​   https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/racing-toward-absolute-zero

Swap Lines, Gulf Debt and the Unravelling of Dollar Primacy
  Michael Hudson: So if the Emirates actually insist, well we need the money, you’ve got to give us the money that we’ve invested in the United States. The United States can’t say, “Well we’ve frozen it all because we don’t want the bond prices to go down. We don’t want the stock prices to go down because that’s what our economy is all about. You threaten to bring the Ponzi scheme to an end.” So what does the Treasury do? It says, “Well don’t worry. We’re going to save you from having to sell these investments that you’ve made that have gone bad.” ​... So here’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to make a swap agreement and we’re just going to create dollars and you’ll give us an equivalent couple of hundred billion dollars of your currency, we’ll give you a hundred billion dollars and we’ll just swap and lend you the money that you need to spend to keep afloat...
​..A swap agreement manages to cope with the freezing up of the US financial markets as a result of all of the debt leveraging and the private capital companies, and the fact that the US economy has been kept afloat for its stock prices and its bond prices by easy credit in a Ponzi scheme. And the easy credit has just created such an overhead of debt that now if you say, “Well, we want to cash out,” well there’s only a teeny little bit of equity for this huge pyramid of debt, and if the price of this debt goes down, then the equity is wiped out totally. That’s what the US is facing and that’s why it’s doing this. It’s creating this swap system because there isn’t any other alternative.
​  Radhika Desai: This is exactly right, Michael. And let me put it in slightly different terms. Let me formulate what you’ve said in slightly different terms. What you’re saying is that the very thing that the Federal Reserve has been doing domestically, which is supporting asset markets through quantitative easing, it is now going to have to do internationally.​   
https://michael-hudson.com/2026/05/swap-lines-gulf-debt-and-the-unravelling-of-dollar-primacy/

  ​It's Yalta-2, but Trump is just Churchill, not FDR. Maybe Putin is Stalin and Xi is FDR.  Moon of Alabama, Trump Goes To China
This week U.S. President Donald Trump is going to China.
  His larger plan had been to take Venezuela, Iran and their oil before pressing China, via tariffs and energy restrictions, to concede to U.S. hegemony.
That plan has failed. Trump has lost two wars. His tariff schemes ended in retreat after China restricted the export of its rare earth products. His war on Iran has been one big failure.
Trump is coming to Beijing with his cap in his hand. He, as usual, will try to bluff a way to ‘victory’. He will proceed as if the U.S. were in a great position. The Chinese will be polite, but won’t have any of it.   
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/05/trump-goes-to-china.html

Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-05-13
April CPI inflation hits 3-year high at 3.8% YoY (exp 3.7%), Core 0.4% MoM (exp 0.3%). Energy +17.9% YoY, gasoline +28.4%, airfares +20.7%. Fed rate HIKE odds surge to 31%. Rate cuts entirely priced out. Real wages post first annual decline since April 2023...
​..Iran issues 5 preconditions for any nuclear talks with the US: end war on all fronts including Lebanon, lift all sanctions, release frozen assets, pay war reparations, recognize Iran's sovereign right over Hormuz. Trump rejected as "totally unacceptable". Iran parliament threatens 90% uranium enrichment in event of new attack. NYT reports Iran retained 70% of missile arsenal with 30 of 33 Hormuz missile sites operational.​..
..Global bond market meltdown intensifying: US 30Y yield above 5.02%, 10Y nearing 4.50%. Japan 20Y at highest since 1996. UK 30Y gilt at highest since 1998...
​..China imported record 528 tonnes of silver in March — most ever recorded...
..Trump en route to Beijing with 16 CEOs including Cook, Fink, Musk, Solomon, Schwarzman, Fraser, Ortberg. Jensen Huang joined last minute. Summit Thursday-Friday. Chinese state media showing zero mentions of the visit per JustDario — a deliberate signal. Topics: Taiwan, AI, rare earths, trade, Iran pressure on China...
​..Hormuz crisis: Iran tightening control, not losing it​ - Iraq and Pakistan have cut deals with Iran to ship oil and LNG through the Strait — Iran moving from blocking to access control per Reuters
​  At least 6 Chinese-owned tankers crossed Hormuz in a single day
with Iran's approval. Maersk still avoiding the Strait entirely
Saudi Aramco CEO calls this the "largest energy supply shock the world has ever experienced" — ~1 billion barrels lost, 2-5 ships daily through Hormuz vs 70 pre-war...
​..Pentagon confirms 39 US aircraft lost in Iran war per Rep. Ed Case​...
​..US releasing another wave from Strategic Reserve as gas prices soar SPR drawdowns compared to Biden-era playbook by JustDario
Gasoline inventories at 10-year lows per Chris Martenson; could hit "tank bottom" by early July​...
​..Copper hits all-time high above $14,000/ton​...
​..AI market structure — fragility building under euphoria​...
​..Russia tests Sarmat ICBM — nuclear posture escalation- Russia successfully tests the Sarmat heavy ICBM, entering combat duty before year-end. Putin: range 35,000km, warhead yield 4x any Western analogue, suborbital trajectory capability, overcomes all missile defense​...
​..Ukraine: ceasefire over, corruption exposed, Belarus mobilizes​ - Three-day ceasefire ended; Russia claims 30,383 Ukrainian violations. Putin ready to meet Zelensky in Moscow "at any time"
​  Yermak (Zelensky's former chief of staff) charged with money laundering — $10.5M, 4 diplomatic passports found, fortune teller consulted for personnel decisions
​  Zelensky's former spokesperson tells Tucker Carlson: cash bags in meetings, "Goebbels-style propaganda" requested, drug use allegations.​..
​..UK political crisis deepening​ - Starmer refusing to resign despite 80+ Labour MPs calling for him to step down. Now 85 MPs — above 81 threshold for leadership challenge​...
​..Consumer financial stress reaching extremes​ - 55% of Americans say financial condition getting worse — highest since 2001 tracking began
​  Seriously delinquent credit card balances about to surpass GFC record
Millions of student borrowers defaulting — average age 40​   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-13

​  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-05-12
Iran-US ceasefire collapse: Trump called Iran's counter-proposal "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" and a "piece of garbage", put ceasefire "on life support", met with generals Monday, and is considering reactivating Project Freedom (military escorts through Hormuz). Iran's Parliament Speaker responded: "Our armed forces are ready... they will be surprised". US Navy deployed nuclear-armed submarine USS Alaska through Gibraltar. Iran deployed combat-ready mini subs in Hormuz.​..
​..Iran Strait of Hormuz sovereignty assertion​ - Iran formalised the Persian Gulf Strait Authority with pre-approval forms for every transit and claimed authority over seven major subsea cables carrying ~15-20% of inter-regional data traffic
​  First commercial transits since February — Qatari LNG and Saudi tanker
— moved under IRGC-designated routes. Mediators paid the toll​...
​..~1,550-1,600 vessels remain stranded inside the Gulf per NYT/AP estimates. Lloyd's Joint War Committee has not delisted Hormuz​...
​..2022 Biden dumped SPR during no supply shock vs 2026 Trump leasing SPR during largest supply shock in history — to hide the crisis​...
​..A Polymarket account with 100% win ratio on Iran war bets just placed large wagers on US invasion and regime fall by June 30​...
​..Europe pivoting toward Russia talks- Finland's Stubb: "time to start negotiations with Russia", confirmed European leaders discussing who will be contact person​ - EU Kallas refused Schröder as Putin-proposed negotiator
​  Slovakia's Fico: "Are we such IDIOTS?" — Russia supplies gas to US who resells to Europe at markup
Hungary's new FM Anita Orban: no weapons/soldiers to Ukraine, won't participate in €90B EU loan; will build relations with Russia​...
​..Zelensky inner circle unravelling- Tucker Carlson full interview with ex-press secretary Yulia Mendel: Zelensky demanded "Goebbels propaganda" with "1,000 talking heads"​ - She confirmed he was unqualified, called him a drug user
​  NABU serving notice of suspicion to Yermak (former presidential office head) over multi-billion-dollar Western aid theft schemes
Germany's AfD at 28% nationally, most popular party​   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-12

US surveillance plane overhead on guard:  Secret Israeli Base Hidden In Iraqi Desert Backed Operations Inside Iran​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/secret-israeli-base-hidden-iraqi-desert-backed-operations-inside-iran

​  Top Iraqi officials establish committee to 'disarm' resistance factions: Report
Iraq's incoming Prime Minister is under pressure from Washington to disarm Shia armed factions
and prevent their leaders from taking roles in any new government​   
https://thecradle.co/articles/top-iraqi-officials-establish-committee-to-disarm-resistance-factions-report#google_vignette

'Mediator' Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Aircraft To Insulate Them From US Attacks, Graham Fumes At Islamabad​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/very-wide-gap-between-us-iranian-positions-tehran-blasts-white-house-unreasonable

Iran Deploys Combat-Ready Mini Subs In Hormuz As US Flexes Nuclear Submarine En Route​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-deploys-combat-ready-mini-subs-hormuz-us-flexes-nuclear-submarine-en-route

​Iranian General: Army submarines monitor, intercept vessels in Hormuz Strait   https://en.mehrnews.com/news/244388/Army-submarines-monitor-intercept-vessels-in-Hormuz-Strait

  Moon of Alabama, War On Iran: – U.S. Experiencing Price Increases
The stalemate in the War of Iran is characterized by bets on each side that the enemy side will soon incur unsustainable economic problems.
  After several wars and decades of sanctions Iran is well versed in how to sustain under economic pressure. Its people and government know of the larger picture. Price fluctuations are inconveniences but do not change the will of the people.
  The U.S. on the other side is rather fragile. Even only mildly unconformable circumstances will lead to political pressure. One percent more or less of inflation will change the election chances for this or that party.
  The consequences of the blockade of Hormuz are starting to come in: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war – BBC   
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/05/war-on-iran-u-s-experiencing-price-increases.html

Leaked GRU Document Shows Russia Proposed Supplying Iran with 5,000 Fiber-Optic Drones and Training for Potential Use Against U.S. Forces​   https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Leaked-GRU-Document-Shows-Russia-Proposed-Supplying-Iran-with-5000-Fiber-Optic-Drones-and-Training-for-Potential-Use-Against-US-Forces/

​  Israel committed 'brutal violations' against activists of aid flotilla: Int'l Committee to Break the Siege on Gaza
Violations included assaults, sexual harassment, beatings, Youssef Ajissa, head of International Committee to Break the Siege on Gaza​   
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-committed-brutal-violations-against-activists-of-aid-flotilla-intl-committee-to-break-the-siege-on-gaza/3932133

​  Going down like the WTC buildings: Israel is taking out the last remaining residential towers in Gaza to make it impossible for the remaining Palestinians to live there and turning them into refugees.​   https://x.com/Partisangirl/status/2052930181959213173

​  Israeli strike levels building sheltering displaced families in south Lebanon
The latest civilian massacre came as part of a wide and violent wave of Israeli attacks across south Lebanon​   
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/37600#google_vignette

​  Jerusalem Post on Israeli Hostage ("dead or alive") retrieval: Soldiers who shot hostages had orders to shoot all men on-sight - report
Yotam Haim, 28, Samer Talalka, 25, and Alon Shamriz, 26, were all taken captive during Hamas' attack on October 7, 2023.​   https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-895632

​Locking Palestinians into little islands to remove one by one: Israeli occupation allocates one billion shekels for colonial bypass roads in West Bank   https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/170258?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

They are mastering the versatile technology: Hezbollah released footage of an FPV drone hitting another Israeli tank.   https://en.topwar.ru/282447-hizballa-pokazala-kadry-porazhenija-fpv-dronom-ocherednogo-izrailskogo-tanka.html

​  Israeli army chief says more recruits needed 'immediately'​ - Eyal Zamir makes remarks in meeting of parliament's Foreign Affairs and Security Committee​   https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-army-chief-says-more-recruits-needed-immediately/3933208

Israeli Strikes Across Lebanon Killed at Least 22​ - Triple drone strike killed Syrian man and his 12-year-old daughter​   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/05/09/israeli-strikes-across-lebanon-killed-at-least-22/

​  Israeli Military Has Killed More Than 850 Palestinians in Gaza Since So-Called Ceasefire Deal Was Signed - Israeli attacks continued on Sunday, with one strike killing two police officers in Khan Younis​   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/05/10/israeli-military-has-killed-more-than-850-palestinians-in-gaza-since-so-called-ceasefire-deal-was-signed/

Lebanon says farmland area roughly size of Chicago destroyed in Israeli offensive​   https://www.aa.com.tr/en/greenline/agriculture/lebanon-says-farmland-area-roughly-size-of-chicago-destroyed-in-israeli-offensive/1830137

​  Hezbollah strikes Iron Dome battery with FPV drone​ - The IDF has struggled to respond to the FPV drone threat, which uses special cables and manual operation of the drone to outwit the military's advanced technologies for jamming and tracking drones.​   https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-895734

​  Sundance, The CIA, Barack Obama, Joe Biden and John Brennan
In 2008 Joe Biden was Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, with oversight jurisdiction of the U.S State Dept., and by extension all foreign policy nominations etc.
​  In 2008 John Brennan was working for the Obama campaign when someone from his outside government group, The Analysis Corporation, “hacked” into the state dept database to access the passport files and State Dept records of Barack Obama.
​   Mr. Brennan spent most of his C.I.A. career as an analyst, but during the 1990s served a tour as the chief of the station in Saudi Arabia. From 1999 to early 2001, he was chief of staff to George J. Tenet, the director of central intelligence, as the position was then called. At the end of his CIA. service, in 2004 and 2005, Mr. Brennan set up what is now the counterterrorism center.
​  Yet, people would have us believe, after 25 years within the CIA, and after being the Chief of Staff to the Director, and after being the person who set up the counter terrorism center, and after being the CIA approved contractor for the State dept., well, John Brennan just didn’t know that someone from his firm was penetrating the passport files within the State Dept. on three occasions in Jan and Feb 2008 to look at information of the candidate who he was specifically working for.
​  That was their story, and they stuck to it in 2008.
​  After the initial inquiry, federal investigators maintained that the target of the illegal activity was Senator Barack Obama’s passport file.   It does not take a stretch to come to the conclusion this was for the sole purpose of cleansing records of information that would jeopardize Obama’s candidacy.    As many people speculated at the time, the breach of the passport records of the other candidates was merely to create confusion.
​  Brennan was, at the time, an unpaid advisor working with Obama’s campaign. Passport files include an applicant’s name, gender, social security number, date and place of birth, and passport number. Additional information may include birth certificates, naturalization certificates, or oaths of allegiance for U.S. born persons who adopted the citizenship of a foreign country as minors.
​  It is important to remember the oversight agency that would be investigating the breach – The Senate Foreign Relations Committee oversees the State Department.At the time Senator Joe Biden was the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when the breach would be investigated.​..
And, well, what do you know…  Biden became the VP pick of Obama.
​  State Department employee, Lieutenant Quarles Harris, Jr. who had the passport access, apparently was the guy who penetrated the database and scrubbed the records.  Harris was killed – April 18th, 2008.
​  Yes, Lieutenant Harris decided to cooperate with the FBI who were investigating the break-in.   Soon after his cooperation became a matter of record, his body was discovered in his parked car; he had been shot twice in the head, likely a “suicide”.
​  Last point. In mid-February 2010, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs alerted WH reporters that certain questions about Obama’s job with Business International Corporation (BIC) would not be subject to discussion.  BIC was well known in Washington DC to be a front company for the CIA; hence, many speculated the State Department passport records were scrubbed to erase any potential mention of Obama’s CIA activities and his personal information.  You decide.​   
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/05/10/the-cia-barack-obama-joe-biden-and-john-brennan/#more-283299

​And it was a good thing, too: Simplicius, Zelensky Again Steps Down From Ledge as Russian V-Day Parade Predictably Proceeds as Planned   https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zelensky-again-steps-down-from-ledge

​  Nearly $22 billion secretly shipped to Ukraine – Austrian politician​ - Euroskeptic FPO leader Christian Hafenecker has called on Vienna’s money laundering watchdog to investigate​   https://web.archive.org/web/20260512092128/https://www.rt.com/news/639864-22-billion-shipped-ukraine-austria/

EU Prepares For 'Potential' Talks With Putin As US Slowly Reduces Troops On Continent​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-prepares-potential-talks-putin-us-slowly-reduces-troops-continent

​  Gilbert Doctorow, Contradictory signals from the Kremlin on Russia’s strategic deterrence
‘News of the Week’ showed the 9th May demonstrations as they took place across the globe. What they did not show, but you will have the opportunity to see on Wednesday during the ‘’Judging Freedom’‘ podcast is how the day was celebrated across one-story Russia. A long-time friend and neighbor in a hamlet 80 km south of Petersburg sent me photos via WhatsApp that demonstrate the deep sense of pride, high emotions and patriotism that reaches into the smallest villages and is spontaneous, not officially prompted. I trust that you will find this backchannel to real people to be enlightening.​..
​..The coverage of Putin’s press conference after the parade included one sentence that deserves special attention. Putin said the the war with Ukraine ‘’is close to completion.’‘ What can that mean? I believe he may be right and that the key factor in this end game is some understanding that Putin has with Donald Trump. Let us note that the three-day, 9 – 11 May truce seemingly came from nowhere after Zelensky had dismissed it out of hand and had stated during his visit to the All European conference in Yerevan, Armenia that he intended to attack the parade in Moscow with drones. I believe that he was dissuaded from this violence by Trump who must have told him that the game is up, that his country will be utterly destroyed by Russia in the immediate days ahead if he dares to violate the sanctity of 9 May in Moscow or other Russian cities. And I will go a step further and hazard the guess that Trump made this threat to Zelensky following the 90 minute phone call he had with Vladimir Putin, likely at the initiative of the Russian president.
​  If my conjecture is correct, then Trump will indeed be the broker for concluding at the very least a long term cease fire in the Russia-Ukraine war if not a definitive peace. I believe the former denouement is more likely because it requires very little time to achieve and would satisfy certain needs both on the Russian and on the Ukrainian sides. For President Putin, it would be an instant satisfaction of the loud and growing demands in Russian society for this nearly five year war to end.
​  For Zelensky, it would leave his regime intact even if he personally will be obliged to withdraw from the presidency following the elections which surely will be a part of any Russian-US-Ukrainian truce agreement. He will be given a safe exit ramp and can spend the rest of his life enjoying his ill-gotten wealth.​..
​..Karaganov is saying essentially that Russia should shift from use of nuclear weapons strictly in response to attack to a first strike policy if its economy, defense or other parameters of its sovereignty are being threatened. Now that would be a sea change. Russia would, in effect, be responding to the first strike posture that the United States has been developing ever since George Bush pulled out of the ABM treaty early in this century.
​  Which way will Russia go? Towards a compromised peace that demeans the sacrifice of one million Russian soldiers dead or maimed for life in the Special Military Operation? Or to a more vigorous deterrence wherein red lines do not have to be crossed before Russia delivers a crushing blow on its enemies?​   
https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/contradictory-signals-from-the-kremlin

“U.S. Military Inferiority”? Russia Develops “Son of Oreshnik”, More Advanced Long Range Hypersonic Ballistic Missile​   https://www.globalresearch.ca/son-of-oreshnik-and-zero-deviation-russia-develops-more-advanced-long-range-hypersonic-ballistic-missile-u-s-military-inferiority/5924644
​ 
Andrew Korybko on a current Trump/NATO project-country: Azerbaijan Risks Placing Itself on a Ukrainian-like Collision Course With Russia   https://www.globalresearch.ca/azerbaijan-ukrainian-like-collision-course-russia/5925788

Stalwart Sir Kier stands his ground... Cable, Gilts Under Pressure As UK PM Starmer On The Brink As Rebellion Spreads   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cable-gilts-under-pressure-uk-pm-starmer-brink-rebellion-spreads

​  S​undance, DNI Tulsi Gabbard Investigating 120 Foreign Biolabs Funding by U.S. Government – More than 40 are Located in Ukraine
Gabbard told The Post Monday in a statement that her team is going “to identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain and what ‘research’ is being conducted to end dangerous gain-of-function research that threatens the health and wellbeing of the American people and the world.”
​  “The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the catastrophic global impact research on dangerous pathogens in biolabs can have,” the spy chief also said.
“Yet despite these obvious dangers, politicians, so-called health professionals, like Dr. Fauci, and entities within the Biden administration’s national security team lied to the American people about the existence of these US-funded and supported biolabs and threatened those who attempted to expose the truth.”
​  Under new guidance from Gabbard, the US Intelligence Community will review research at all US-funded biolabs, which would include facilities engaged in gain-of-function experiments that could increase the transmissibility of viruses, as well as work for defensive purposes against dangerous pathogens.
​  Office of the Director of National Intelligence officials noted that the foreign labs extend into more than 30 countries, and several had received funding in the past through a Department of Defense program that sought to dispose of weapons of mass destruction after the end of the Cold War.
​  More than 40 of the biolabs under review are located in Ukraine — and could “be at risk of compromise” due to Russia’s war, ODNI officials noted.​   
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/05/11/dni-tulsi-gabbard-investigating-120-foreign-biolabs-funding-by-u-s-government-more-than-40-are-located-in-ukraine/#more-283333

​Paul Marik MD, Treating Depression as a Whole-Body Disease (Part3)   https://substack.com/home/post/p-192475777

Jessica Rose Ph.D. Genomic evidence confirms natural evolution (variance) of Andes hantavirus - It's not a new strain (according to sequencing data)   https://jessicar.substack.com/p/genomic-evidence-confirms-natural

  Further investigation going forward. Might novel strains be found by further sequencing? Is ANDV hanta natural spillover or lab design? - Predicting the answer using science: hypothesize, test, conclude   https://jessicar.substack.com/p/is-andv-hanta-natural-spillover-or

  Meryl Nass MD has information I'd want to know if I'd been exposed: Symptomatic Andes Hantavirus enters the US--while a potential very early treatment [CQ/ HCQ] is suppressed. What about antibody treatment? What about other repurposed drugs? - Will we see treatments suppressed again? Info from the treatment and prophylaxis literature.   https://merylnass.substack.com/p/symptomatic-andes-hantavirus-enters

  Peter McCullough MD asserts that the case for human to human transmission of Hantavirus has never been made convincingly. Virus in the Dust: Exposing the Fabricated Contagion of Andes Hantavirus - Why the "human-to-human" panic ignores the simple reality of common environmental exposure to rodents on the ship   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/virus-in-the-dust-exposing-the-fabricated

  Dr. McCullough recites the litany of WHO mistakes in managing this incident: The WHO’s Deadly Blunders: Why Globalism Is Failing Public Health
As the Hantavirus crisis unfolds, it is clear that ceding authority to international bureaucrats is a fatal mistake—the U.S. justified in cutting ties.​   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/the-whos-deadly-blunders-why-globalism

  Dr. McCoullough explains non-human-transmission possibilities: The EpuyĂ©n Extrapolation: Challenging the Community Hantavirus Andes P2P Spread Assumption - Could dead bodies on board MV Hondius for several days be the real "super-spreaders"   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/the-epuyen-extrapolation-challenging

  As well as Vitamin-D, Hydroxychloroquine, zinc and ivermectin: Beyond the Breach: Taming the Hantavirus Threat with Favipiravir
A new horizon in antiviral defense: how oral favipiravir should be trialed in and offers hope for victims of the MV Hondius debacle detained in biosecurity centers and in self-quarantine​   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/beyond-the-breach-taming-the-hantavirus

​  New York Times Attacks ‘Spelling’ — Parents Say It ‘Changed Everything’ for Their Nonspeaking Children With Autism
Families of nonspeaking autistic people are pushing back at The New York Times
after the newspaper last week published an op-ed claiming that spelling — a method through which nonspeakers communicate using a letter board — is “debunked” and unsupported by scientific evidence.​   
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/new-york-times-attacks-spelling-nonspeaking-children-autism-parents-say-changed-everything/

​  Can Vaccines Cause Autism? Existing Studies Aren’t Designed to Answer That Question
Existing epidemiological studies — studies on how often diseases occur in different groups of people and why — are designed to examine whether vaccines cause neurodevelopmental injuries in the general childhood population. But these studies can’t capture the effects of vaccines on subgroups — like children with mitochondrial dysfunction who may be more vulnerable to injuries from vaccines, according to a preprint by Children’s Health Defense scientists and their colleagues.​   
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/can-vaccines-cause-autism-existing-studies-arent-designed-answer-question/

​  BREAKING: Landmark Peer-Reviewed Study Finds Vaccination Is a Major Risk Factor for Autism
Our 50-page analysis of more than 300 studies
provides one of the most comprehensive syntheses to date on the possible causes of autism.​   
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-landmark-peer-reviewed-study

​Legalizing treatment of Stop signs as Yield signs by bicyclists reduces intersection accidents.  We Finally Have the Data on Cyclists Running Stop Signs   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCs5nDEZpoM

  A Huge meteorite impact 44,000 years ago appears to have have seeded an ecosystem, implying that this could have also happened billions of years ago.  
Major Discovery on the Origin of Life Found Inside a Korean Crater​   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4g1Oi6SoB8

​Gardener with Carrots


Sunday, May 10, 2026

Assuming We Have Food

 First Worlders,


  We have been using diesel, coal, natural gas and gasoline as rapidly as possible to economically compete amongst ourselves, as is our human habit. Whoever creates and uses more fossil-fuel energy has more power to harness right away, and power-on-tap is what wins human competitions in industry, agriculture and war. 
  We are coming to an uneven end of the epoch of MORE, and those people, countries and alliances that undergo energy curtailments first are comparatively weakened, such as we see with the EU since it has curtailed use of Russian gas and oil. A hard curtailment is starting to hit much of our world, particularly farmers planting spring crops, who have less fertilizer than usual. Fertilizer triples crop yields. That is the food-baseline. 
  Many farmers will not plant at all if they can't afford or get fertilizer, since they would lose money. Staple foods like grains and  beans will be produced in much lower quantities this year, presumably hitting animal feed supplies very hard, but also human food supplies. Marginally fed areas will undergo famine, right?
  How long and how hard this shock will persist remains to be seen. It is already destined to be bigger than both 1970s oil shocks combined, and those changed our world, our ways of living, and how we managed transportation at all levels, to this present date.
  We have long assumed that we could readily meet our fundamental needs for food, fuel and shelter from the elements. I don't assume that going forward. 
I am fortunate to have been in 10th grade during the 1973-1974 Arab Oil Embargo, so the lessons were not lost on me, and I integrated them into my worldview.

  Nate Hagens, Why the World Feels Like It’s Falling Apart: A Superorganism Speed Round
Most people believe that money powers the world, but this is a narrow viewpoint. If we zoom out further, it’s really energy. Animals were the first investors, spending calories in order to gain more. This surplus energy built organisms, ecosystems, and eventually human cultures and the civilization we experience today.


  Two centuries ago, we tapped into the stored energy of ancient sunlight in the form of coal, oil, and gas. A single barrel of oil, when combined with a machine, can do around five years of human labor for mere pennies. It’s portable, concentrated, and incredibly cheap magic. This fossil jackpot underpins the phenomenon I call the Carbon Pulse – a one-time release of energy that’s been stored over deep geologic time. In under 200 years, we’ve burned what took millions of years to form. This isn’t a paycheck that keeps showing up in our bank account, it’s a trust fund with which we’ve been throwing a planet-wide party.
  When paired with machines, this huge energy surplus has done wondersPopulation, production, and profits have all soared, powered by an invisible fossil army equivalent to half a trillion human workers.
  But such power also comes with blind spots. Our culture confuses the tiny cost of fossil energy with the enormous value it provides us and ignores the pollution impacts almost entirely. We built a global economy that’s fully dependent on these two hidden subsidies, without acknowledging or even seeing them...
..Emergence and the Superorganism
  In nature, complexity builds through flows of energy and materials. Forests, coral reefs, and even brains all emerge from this dynamic. Human systems are no exception. Cities, economies, and technologies are all self-organized as emergent structures powered by energy and shaped by matter. From simple patterns like this, nature creates beautiful patterns...
..If we zoom out far enough, human civilization itself starts looking and acting like a giant organism with its own metabolism. Data flows, echoing neural signals, while highways and shipping lanes function like veins and arteries with gasoline and diesel as blood. Fractal nodes in the global system require a higher and higher baseline metabolic requirement each year.
  What has emerged is something new and massive: a globally-synchronized economic Superorganism, built from energy, machines, and billions of human decisions, all driven by both biological and cultural incentives.
  This Superorganism is mindless, unplanning, and energy-hungry. It isn’t evil, it doesn’t feel, and it doesn’t care about equity, ecology, or human wellbeing. It solely optimizes for throughput, scale, and for more – even when more becomes the problem. There is no mastermind behind the wheel, only billions of incentives aligned in the same direction toward extraction and consumption.
  We’ve inadvertently built a system that rewards material expansion, not wisdom, and we’ve outsourced our decision-making to markets and algorithms. As a result, we have consumed more energy and materials in the past thirty years than all humans before us combined. Our current culture feels and acts like it will continue forever, but infinite growth on a finite planet is not possible. Technology on its own won’t save us, because it runs on the same fuel and has the same master.
  The Superorganism cannot see what’s coming. It doesn’t anticipate, it only reacts – and the signals it reacts to are prices set for profits, which ignore the deeper long-term risks of constantly striving for growth.
  So far, our collective response when we’ve hit limits has been to go deeper into ecological and biophysical debt. Buy now and pay later at a planetary scale, now in full effect. When central banks print money, they are not printing oil, copper, or lithium. They’re actually printing claims on those things. In other words, we can double the money supply, but the fossil fuels, forest, metals, and orangutans haven’t doubled. The financial system assumes endless growth, but in the physical world, both the sources and the sinks, have limits.
  Down-Slope of the Carbon Pulse
  For over two centuries, growth has been our default, fueled by energy and abundance and amplified by financial systems. But we are now hitting ecological, energetic, and social constraints. The cultural story of “more” is colliding with physical reality...
..The up-slope of the Carbon Pulse brought growth and complexity. On the down-slope, the inverse will happen: less energy, less complexity, less “more.” This phenomenon is what I call the “Great Simplification,” and is also the namesake of this platform.
  This Great Simplification is not a “maybe,” it’s a “when.” The economic Superorganism is not something humans plan for, nor something we wanted. It’s an emergent phenomenon of large numbers of social primates blindly interacting with a large energy surplus. Downstream of aggregate behavior, as individuals, humans continue to seek the emotional states that served our ancestors. But now we live in a world of scale, speed, and stimulation they never faced. We are a species far out of context. But we are not just individuals, we’re also deeply social animals... It’s in our nature to shift once the story shifts too.
  At the end of the day, the things that truly bring us joy and meaning are not tied to material consumption once our basic human needs are metWhat fulfills us is ancient connection, purpose, time in nature, and being in service to others. Humans don’t need endless growth to live rich, meaningful lives...
..So what can we do as this Superorganism reaches old age? The responses fall into four broad categories, in my view:
Policy: biophysical realism and planning for bending rather than breaking as we approach a Great Simplification.
  Cultural: new stories, less hubris, and more trust and social capital.
Community: mutual aid, more localized food and supply chains, and ecosystem repair.
  Personal: skills, mindset, connection, and meaning.
  We can’t easily steer or stop the economic Superorganism, but we can plant the seeds for what comes next...This is already happening, and the stakes have never been higher for humans and the biosphere.
  Power scales up – energy, money, control, hierarchy. Life scales deep – interconnection, regeneration, community. The future depends on which of these we feed. This is more than a crisis, it is a rite of passage for Homo sapiens. The Superorganism we are part of today is not our destiny as a species, but it is a fork in what could still be the long road of our time on Earth. So start the conversation. Build local resilience. Consider being more actively in service of life.   
https://natehagens.substack.com/p/essay-why-the-world-feels-like-its

  The Honest Sorcerer, Don't Look Up! What previous oil crises can teach us about this one, and what to expect in 2027 and beyond
 Everyone admits that what we are going through is the biggest energy crisis in history, yet western governments, the media and heads of corporations act as if nothing’s happening... 
..And when the crisis does get a passing mention, it’s treated as a temporary phenomenon. Something, which will eventually (think: within a couple of months) sort itself out: the strait will be open soon, ships will return by summer, and oil will flow just like before in autumn... We are on track to lose 2-4 billion barrels of oil, or 6-12% of global crude and condensate production by the end of this year. No reserve or oil storage is big enough to compensate for that...
..And it’s not just crude oil, but fertilizer, sulfuric acid, jet and diesel fuel, naphtha, helium, aluminum, LNG—everything this bloody civilization needs for its survival... this crisis is shaping up to be the biggest humanitarian crisis in modern history...
..Now, with that said, let’s see what are the lessons to be learned from previous oil shocks. What to expect in 2027 and beyond? Will there be a return to previous flows, even if equipment takes months to repair?...
..1973/74 OPEC oil embargo
  First, let’s see what were the major oil shocks in history, and what their impact were on global crude oil (plus condensate) output. The number one, which comes into everyone’s mind, of course, is the 1973/74 OPEC oil embargo... 
 While it lasted only five months, till March 1974, it ended up quadrupling oil prices and causing severe gasoline shortages all across America and Europe.  And these effects haven’t faded away with the crisis ending: oil prices remained elevated, sparking a global wave of inflation and kick-starting the de-industrialization of the West. It marked the transition from the post-World War II "golden era" of manufacturing prosperity to a phase of decline...  
..The economic fallout from the event and the ensuing demand destruction, however, have resulted in suppressed oil demand for years to come. It took a full 32 months (from the start of the embargo) till world crude plus condensate production returned to a growth trajectory, surpassing pre-crisis levels for a sustained period of time...
..1979/80 Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War
  Just four and a half years after the previous crisis ended came a second shock to the system. Amidst a popular uprising against the dictatorial rule of Reza Shah Pahlavi (imposed on the Iranians by a western orchestrated coup1) oil workers went on a strike, lowering Iran’s oil output from 6 million barrels a day in September, 1978 to 0.7 in January, 1979 (the starting point of our chart below). These news, invoking fears of another round of shortages, have led to widespread panic buying and hoarding of oil—despite the fact that production was restored relatively quickly... raising the cost of a barrel by 166% in little more than a year. Then, in September 1980, Saddam’s Iraq attacked Iran’s Islamic Republic, with the full intelligence and weapons support of Western countries. The war has led to a collapse of both nations’ oil production, reducing their combined (and already declining) output by 5 million barrels a day...  ..Oil prices barely nudged, though. In fact, they began to fall, then stagnate. The economic crisis started by the energy price rally in 1979, had already made its effects felt—together with the energy saving measures introduced in response to the previous oil shock. Demand was falling...
..G7 economies were entering a double dip recession and a period of stagflationOPEC nations began to cut their oil output to stabilize prices, but all they managed to achieve was lowering global crude oil output for many years to come. Central banks raised interest rates to stratospheric levels, investment plummeted, and neoliberal policies (outsourcing, financialization, privatization) ruled the day. It wasn’t until August, 1989—ten years and eight months after the crisis started—when world crude oil output managed to rise back to 1978 levels in a debt fueled economic boom. The second oil shock took a full decade to recover from...
..1990 Gulf War ... Desert Storm destroyed Iraq’s military, and a UN embargo on Iraqi and Kuwaiti exports, imposed in August 1990, destroyed Iraq’s economy. Oil prices shot up (briefly), but crude oil output failed to return to 1989/90 levels for four years to come...
..The economic collapse of Russia and the Eastern European block—together with the continued deindustrialization of Europe—also played a role here. So while the economy of the West suffered “only” a year long economic recession in 1990, Eastern Europe entered a prolonged period of immense economic hardship following the collapse of its markets and trading system.
  2007/8 Oil Price Rally... The demand for oil, moving, mining, feeding and building an ever larger world economy was on the rise, too—but supply was stagnating. The reason: world conventional crude and condensate production has peaked in 2005—as predicted—and unconventional sources (shale, tar sands etc.) hadn’t come online yet. 
  This irreconcilable mismatch between supply and demand has led to a worldwide price rally, with spot prices briefly touching $146 in July 2008 ($200 in today’s money). The spike didn’t last long, though. The great financial crisis of 2008/09, following the collapse of the housing market, left every business scrambling for cash; triggering a massive sell-off of everything... Oil prices collapsed within a matter of months—together with world trade and the demand for oil...
..2020 Pandemic Demand Shock (plus Russia/Ukraine) ... 2020 saw the entire world economy grind to a halt. In response to the rapid spread of COVID-19, most countries around the world entered a lock-down, leading to a sudden drop in oil demand and seeing prices reaching negative levels for a brief period of time. 13% of world crude oil production was shut-in during April and May, then gradually began to recover as economic activity slowly returned.
  The demand crisis then quickly turned into a lack of supply predicament in 2021. Despite oil prices recovering to pre-COVID levels in a year, oil production was still 8% lower than in 2019. This mismatch, fueled by a quick economic rebound and a slower than expected return of supply, saw prices surging 40% above pre-pandemic levels by late 2021. Then came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the fear of western sanctions completely crippling Russian oil exports. Prices doubled compered to 2019 levels...
..Following a hitherto unprecedented release from US strategic petroleum reserves in two waves, and as oil supply returned to pre-COVID levels two and a half years after the lock downs began, prices finally stabilized...
..What’s in common? The first pattern we can easily identify by looking at inflation adjusted per capita GDP figures (here showing the results for the world’s largest economy), is that oil crises are followed by a recession...  Now, that we are facing by far the biggest oil supply shock in human history, threatening the entire world economy with a very long recession (if not economic depression), the United States won’t be spared either...
..While previous supply crises saw oil production drop 2-7 percentage points, this one took out 15% of global crude supply in one fell swoop. And the end is nowhere in sight. As of the time of this writing, the Mexican standoff between Iran and the US still holds, even as American consumers and airlines are hitting a breaking point. The demand destruction, which has ensued from each prior oil crisis, can... be especially severe in this case...
..If there is any historical analogue (in terms of magnitude at least) to the present crisis it lies closest to the Pandemic shut-in, or the deep recession following the Iranian Revolution and the Iran Iraq war in the 1980’s. Neither suggests a quick recovery on the other end...
..This is where the IEA study I wrote about last year comes into sharp focus again. We are rapidly approaching the point in world crude oil production where the ever accelerating decline of older plays eventually outpaces the production from newer ones—even without geopolitical turbulence. And with less and less new oil to be found, much of global supply now comes from legacy and post-peak fields... In America, the world’s largest shale play, the Permian, which was single-handedly responsible for much of the production growth after the pandemic, is also facing exactly the same predicament. It was getting harder and harder to increase production already, to the point where in late 2025 shale growth has entered it’s own long decline. And while higher prices could provide one final boost, the EIA forecasts US oil production to peak by 2027 no matter what...
..With the shut-in of the majority of Gulf oil production we’ve just got a lot closer to the point where global oil production tips into a permanent decline. In fact, it’s quite possible that February 2026 marked the highest point in world crude oil output. Ever...
..Based on this analysis high oil prices will eventually break the economy, and thus will not—and cannot be—sustained. Demand for oil is already in the process of being destroyed, and is unlikely to return during a prolonged period of economic hardship—further delaying the recovery of oil production. Since many oil fields affected by the blockade of shipping was already ageing, such a prolonged shut-in of production could damage these fields beyond repair, preventing their reactivation. So while a partial recovery is certainly possible once a solution is found to the geopolitical crisis at hand, the longer this stalemate holds, the lower that rebound in production will be.   https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/dont-look-up

  Gaius Baltar explains that Neoliberal Globalist Elites (left-authoritarian) and Zionist Neocon Elites (right authoritarian) have come to loathe each other, yet they need to cooperate effectively to keep ruling us.  THE EPSTEIN CIVILIZATION AND THE ELITE WAR – PART 2 -  FEAR AND LOATHING IN ELITISTAN  
  As discussed in part 1, I have postulated that there are two main elite factions – i.e. the Euro-Neoliberal faction and the Zionist-Neocon faction. The people in them have much in common:
  Both are individualistic – i.e. they place more importance on themselves than the tribe they belong to. The Zionist-Neocons perceive the tribe or nation as a real phenomenon – but unimportant. They are willing to destroy it for cheap imported labor if necessary. For them the masses are best used as rentier slaves, or just plain regular slaves. The Euro-Neoliberals, on the other hand, don’t even perceive their tribe as a real phenomenon. For them the masses are a threat and annoyance which must be neutralized through micromanagement and oppression.
  Both see collectivists – or the ‘tribe above the individual’ people – as enemiesTraditional socialists and traditional conservatives must be contained and preferably persecuted. Their political parties must be infiltrated and subverted – and banned if necessary. The working classes, both with blue and white collars, must not have any representatives in parliament or in society in general. Slaves don’t need representatives.
  Both believe they should rule – not just other people but the world. Both believe they have the ability and the vision, and both are superior to the masses. The Zionist-Neocons primarily believe in (their own) superiority through reason while the Euro-Neoliberals primarily believe in superiority through virtue.
  They are united by individualism and lust for power. Together they are rich and powerful – but apart they will be weak. They might lose control and get overrun by the collectivist hordes. Their relationship is a marriage of convenience rather than affection. In fact, they loathe each other – but they can’t get a divorce without losing their inheritance – which is world domination...

..The neoliberal part of society is not just narcissistic – but seriously cognitively and emotionally deficient on top of that. This group, all the way from the lowliest of supporters up to the political elites – and probably many of the financial elites above them, is completely delusional – not to mention incompetent. The Euro-Neoliberal faction is a clown show.
  Now, let’s take a look at the Zionist-Neocon faction. Let’s start by taking a sample of the premier examples of this faction at the moment. Think of the current version of President Trump and people surrounding him, such as Pete Hegseth, Paula White, Mark Levin and Stephen Miller. Also think of the people running Israel, including Ben Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, and Netanyahu of course. What pattern do you see there?
  These people, as well as the Zionist-Neocon faction in general, have the investment banker syndrome: if you are not a sociopath at the beginning of your career, you will soon learn to be one...
..As an exceptionalist you will have no sympathy for the people you despiseEveryone you despise will become a subhuman, including Palestinians, Iranians, Russians, and so on. Even former MAGA people are now stupid subhumans... Arrogance and the resulting exceptionalism are the main characteristics of the Zionist-Neocon elites. They are dangerous people who are capable of hating just about anyone...
..Considering what is going on now with the Zionist-Neocon war against Iran and the deteriorating relationship between the US and the EU, it seems that the rift is real.
  It may very well be real, but that doesn’t mean it’s deep or permanent. What is most likely happening here is that the mutual hatred has become so toxic that it has escaped containment. It is now out in the open for all to see. Perhaps the loss of the glue provided by the Epstein network contributed to that.   The all-important question is whether it will result in a real rift, a real divorce – or whether the factions will be satisfied with screaming and throwing things at each other.
  A real divorce would have very significant consequences. The recent increase in loathing has mainly come from the Zionist-Neocon faction – which is ascendant at the moment. A real divorce would most likely be initiated by them – and for that to be successful they would have to assume total control over the United States. They would have to treat the EU as unwilling vassal – as opposed to the willing vassal it always was...
..The entire Zionist-Neocon establishment seems to despise the EU-Neoliberal faction now – and is not hesitant to express it. This loathing is not just directed at the EU, but at anything and everything associated with the EU-Neoliberal faction....
.Secondly, it includes absolute Zionist-Neocon loathing of EU-Neoliberal social engineering operations and constructs. This includes DEI, the trans movement, and wokeness in general. Previously, these operations were tolerated and even encouraged by the Zionist-Neocon faction. Now they are considered to be a sign of weakness and stupidity... There is a likely explanation for this Zionist-Neocon anger. It involves failure – something the arrogant Zionist-Neocons do not tolerate...
..These projects were the following:
Medical control of the world, particularly the COVID pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns and vaccination efforts.
  The war in Ukraine against Russia – which has been ongoing since 2014.
The regulatory takeover of the world using the carbon ‘threat.’
  These three projects were mainly planned and executed by the brain trust of the Euro-Neoliberal faction – although the Zionist-Neocon faction wholeheartedly supported and participated in them...
..These three structures were, for the most part, responsible for planning and executing the three giant Euro-Neoliberal projects. The UN structures handled the COVID project and associated projects; NATO handled the Ukraine-Russia project; and the EU handled the global regulatory gulag project.
  While many people in the West, particularly in Europe, still believe in the Euro-Neoliberal cause and think these projects are going well, reality is somewhat different. They actually all failed catastrophically and have brought the West – and the elite alliance – to a state of crisis...
..This optimistic plan didn’t work. Instead of the ‘investment’ into the COVID project being paid back through the Ukraine project, the Ukraine project added debt and economic destruction upon the debt and economic destruction caused by the COVID project. The debt spiral and money printing that started with the COVID project continued on an exponential trajectory. Western economies are collapsing, also exponentially, and the costs of the Ukraine project are so extreme that they must be hidden to prevent the farm animals from getting spooked...
..There is an earthquake going on behind the scenes, and there is no Russian collateral in sight to prop up the debt. Without this collateral, things will spiral out of control – and the EU puppets must therefore persist with the war. The war itself has therefore become debt collateral for the West, particularly for Europe. If the war stops, this collateral will disappear, and the losses will be ‘realized.’...
..The most important project of the EU was the construction of a global regulatory system based on carbon emissions and associated virtue signaling. The plan was to extend this system over the entire planet...  This monetary system would be enforced by the regulatory system underpinning it – and western power. The purpose of the system is identical to the reserve dollar – to be an extractive mechanism for looting the non-western world, and a control mechanism – rolled into one...
..The EU had pushed this pretty far and had even started handing out fines to non-western companies for breaching the EU framework in their own countries.
  This hasn’t gone so well. 
To make this work the EU needed to set this system up within its borders because a product needs to be mostly developed before it can be exported. The result was the economic collapse of the EU...
..The EU/UN/NATO structures tasked with the projects were extremely valuable to the elites. They had plans for those structures – particularly regarding the expansion of western elite power globally. The world was to be conquered by these structures – by the soft power of the UN/EU and the hard power of NATO. The glorious successes of the Carbon Gulag, COVID and Ukraine projects would make them stronger and more influential globally.
  That didn’t happen. What happened instead was the exact opposite...
..There are several reasons these structures have lost credibility but the main reason is that they have been unmasked. The ‘outside world’ has figured out what they are.
  Exacerbating this, the extreme maliciousness, incompetence, and utter lunacy of everyone involved in these projects is now out in the open as well. The problems NATO has in Ukraine and the abject stupidity of its talking heads, the failure of the WHO in pushing through its pandemic agreement, and the failure of the EU in instituting its Carbon Gulag – are visible to all...
..The narcissistic behavior of EU leaders and functionaries has to a significant degree resulted in the EU being shunned internationally...
..To make things even worse, the three projects didn’t just fail. They pushed the non-western world together, resulting in the BRICS alliance and ongoing attempts to get rid of the dollar. The failure is ongoing and getting worse – seemingly without end...
..Donald Trump, and his Zionist-Neocon handlers, are now systematically targeting these failed institutions. Trump has left the WHO, is threatening to withdraw from NATO, has outright targeted the UN on many fronts, and he utterly despises the EU...
..The Zionist-Neocons published a new defense/security strategy to assert the role of America as the center of the Elite Universe. The EU, which had grown too ambitious with its carbon money scheme which threatened the dollar, was subsequently redefined – as Zionist-America’s bitch. Its focus should be on Russia while America attended to more urgent matters.
  The next step was to pivot from the Euro-Neoliberal soft power to Zionist-Neocon American hard power. The soft approach had not worked and now it was time to take out the knives and start stabbing people...
..In America, the Zionist-Neocons also made an amazing discovery. They realized that you cannot fight wars and commit national suicide at the same time. They therefore started targeting the neoliberal suicide programs, including DEI, obese and trans-people in the military, and other such programs. Things needed to get done so the white boys were called back into the military – even those who got canned for not taking the COVID shots...
..Then, after a brief visit to Caracas to shore up their rear, the Zionist-Neocons started phase 2 of World War III by attacking Iran. This is where we are now – waiting for phase 3, i.e. China...
..But there may be a rescue plan in the works. The TechBros faction, mentioned in Part 1 of this essay, is on the move – and they mean business! They are lean, mean, and apparently Zionist.
  Recently Palantir, the tech company, published a manifesto on how to fix America. Palantir is a CIA/Deep State construct masquerading as a company, like many other Silicon Valley companies.
  Their manifesto is intended as a policy paper, mostly on how to undo the damage the EU-Neoliberal suicide programs have done to America.  As mentioned earlier, you cannot conduct wars and commit suicide at the same time – and the manifesto is all about thatIt’s about waging wars and controlling the slaves... I pointed out earlier that if the Zionist-Neocon faction wanted a real divorce from the EU-neoliberal faction, it would have to consolidate control over America in a big way.
  Perhaps the Palantir manifesto is a part of such a plan. Palantir and many other Deep-State companies, including OpenAI, are obviously working on some kind of a control grid for America – and later the world...
..The old idea of the American Technate has been put back into circulation. Perhaps we are looking at a structure intended to allow the Zionist-Neocon faction to divorce the neoliberals and put them in a cage with the rest of us... but the EU-Neoliberals and the Zionist-Neocons will keep working together for a while. Divided they will be too weak to deal with their sovereigntist enemies in the east.   
https://gaiusbaltar.substack.com/p/the-epstein-civilization-and-the-f63

  Larry Johnson, The Gulf Separating the US and Iran is Too Wide to Bridge
There will be no negotiated end to the war with Iran in the next six months because the US narrative and the Iranian narrative cannot be reconciled...
..Iran will never give up its supply of enriched uranium and, as a sovereign nation and signatory to the NPT, will exercise its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. Iran will continue to support the Palestinian people and their quest for freedom and self-rule and will continue to provide assistance to Hezbollah. Finally, Iran will not compromise on its right to build ballistic missiles.
  This, boys and girls, is called an impasse. The US position rests on a number of false assumptions. First, Iran is not the leading sponsor of terrorism and has not been engaged in plots to destabilize it Gulf Arab neighbors. Second, there is no rift between the political leaders of Iran and the IRGC… the President, the Foreign Minister, the Head of the Iranian legislature and the Ayatollah all fought and served with the IRGC during the war with Iraq. Third, Iran’s economy is beginning to revive thanks to support from Russia, China and Pakistan and from the high price of oil. Fourth, notwithstanding Trump’s claims to the contrary, the Iranian navy, air force and ballistic missile, cruise missile and drones are intact and able to continue exchanging blows with the US and Israel...
..Iran is pursuing diplomatic contacts with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait to restore the export of these commodities to the world under Iran’s PGSA. If Qatar and Saudi Arabia cut a deal with Iran, the US influence in the region will be castrated. If there is a global financial crisis accompanied by a major recession, if not depression, then the US will be under enormous pressure to make a deal with Iran that will restore international trade and shipments from the Persian Gulf.   https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/the-gulf-separating-the-us-and-iran

  Naked Capitalism, Iran War: Iran Yet to Answer US Proposal as Recent Exchange of Fire in Gulf Exposes US Weapons Shortages; More on Poor Prospects for Global Economy, Resumption of Old Normal Gulf Traffic Levels
Julian Macfarlane sets forth the conflicting US and Iranian accounts of what happened and then tries to make sense of it in The Fudge of War:
  There seems to be a difference of opinion. If the Iranian story is to believed the 3 Aegis destroyers were not exactly sightseeing in Hormuz, they were carrying out military operations against tankers, backed up by aerial assets, launching air strikes. Of course, Qesm Island, Bandar Khamir, Sirik are not only “civilian” sites, they are fortified sites for launching missiles and drones .
  It would seem that the US Navy was testing the boundaries, carrying out SEAD strikes as per American military doctrine before exposing its three Aegis destroyers tasked with intercepting Iranian tankers. Or perhaps the tankers were just an excuse, with the real targets Iranian defenses along the strait
  The operation was conducted in two primary phases within the Strait of Hormuz…
Macfarlane then explains that on May 4,The USS Truxtun and USS Mason enter the Strait of Hormuz and are attacked pronto; a third destroyer, USS Rafael Peralta, arrives on May 7. The Iranians attack the trio bigly.
  Back to Macfarlane:
  The US Navy should have known by now that its ships would run out of ammunition in the face of dedicated swarm attacks, in this case missiles, drones and fast boats as I described yesterday. Did the Americans think that sinking a few fast boats would frighten the Iranians? And CIWS 
(close-in weapons systems) magazines are empty in just 20 seconds…
  Once a vessel is reduced to CIWS, it’s in trouble. This is the point at which the destroyers fired off Tomahawks which could not, however, hurt Iranian launch sites which are mostly underground but I am sure they hoped would keep the Iranians busyEach Tomahawk costs about $4 million. Aegis destroyers have 96 launch tubes, so carrying offensive missiles reduces the number of defensive missiles, a vulnerability under swarm attack.
  Some reports suggest that the ships were damaged. CENTCOM says no but that denial is meaningless given who it comes from. These are the people who said the Iranians attacked them for no reason at all.
  We had cited Donald Gorbachev yesterday on the significance of the destroyer firing CIWS, which is effectively a backup weapon and demonstrates depletion of preferred armaments. CBS reported the destroyers CIWS; OSINTDefender says the destroyers did not suffer damage...
..From the detail of Gorbachev’s tweet:
CIWS fires when the layered defense has failed. SM-2 missed. SM-6 missed. ESSM missed. RAM missed. The destroyers were down to twenty-millimeter Gatling guns at terminal range. CIWS fires for roughly thirty seconds before the magazine emptiesThree destroyers fired CIWS. Three destroyers withdrew.
  What forced it — not the top shelf. The IRGC did not need the top shelf. The launches came from the Bandar Abbas coastline. Coastal anti-ship missiles. Noor and Ghadir family. Possibly Khalij Fars. Cruise from the shore, ballistic anti-ship from the shore, swarm geometry from the shore. The shore is twenty miles from the Strait. The shore does not need a navy.
  The Fattah did not fly. The Khorramshahr did not fly. The Sejjil did not fly. The deeper magazine sat in the silos. What flew was the coastal inventory the IRGC has been showing on parade for fifteen years. The middle shelf emptied the destroyer’s top shelf. The destroyers withdrew before the IRGC reached for anything else.
  Game. Set. Match. How long will the US try to keep up this pretense? Yes, it can use some of its also-depleted air power to punish Iran. But this latest development confirms that there was never a hope of the US muscling open the Strait.   
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/05/iran-war-iran-yet-to-answer-us-proposal-as-recent-exchange-of-fire-in-gulf-exposes-us-weapons-shortages-more-on-poor-prospects-for-global-economy-resumption-of-old-normal-gulf-traffic-levels.html


  Moon of Alabama, War On Iran: – Destroyer Battle – Iran Can Sustain – Losers Hold Cards
The current situation around the Strait of Hormuz is vague. We currently have what Chas Freeman calls (vid) a “ceasefire with Israeli characteristics”. Both sides continue to fight but try to avoid a larger escalation.
  Yesterday the U.S. stopped an empty Iranian tanker coming from the Indian Ocean which was heading towards an Iranian port. Iran responded by attacking three U.S. destroyer which seem to have intended to pass, east to west, through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.
  The destroyers were driven off under intense Iranian fire:
American officials described the Iranian onslaught on three destroyers as fiercer and more sustained than a separate Iranian barrage that two of the warships faced only days earlier.
  The vessels came under an intense Iranian assault as swarms of Iranian fast-attack boats maneuvered close enough that American warships opened fire to keep them at bay, U.S. officials told CBS News under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
  Over several hours, the American warships and supporting aircraft mounted a layered defense, firing their five-inch naval guns and their close-in weapon systems known as CIWS, officials said. Small-caliber gun teams on deck also engaged the attacking boats. American Apache helicopters fired Hellfire missiles, and .50-caliber machine guns were fired from the decks of the ships, as additional aircraft provided support overhead.
  Iranian forces also launched drones and missiles during the confrontation, the officials said. As of publication, no casualties or damage to the ships was reported.  (If you believe that last sentence please check out my offer of bridges for sale.)
  The Iranian navy was clearly close enough to the destroyers to sink them. That it did not do so might well be a sign that it currently does not want to escalate.
  After the attempt to seize Iran’s Uranium had failed with more than ten airplanes and helicopters lost in desert and after the failure of “Project Freedom” earlier this week this was the third tactical military operation attempt by the U.S. in which the Iranian side prevailed.
  It confirms the recent ‘leaked’ assessment by the U.S. intelligence community that Iran can sustain this conflict (archived) and has sufficient reserves for many months, if not years, of continuous fighting...
..Time is on the Iranian side. Its economy is used to work under sanctions and pressure. The U.S. (and global) economy can not do without the oil, gas, fertilizer and minerals which are currently blocked in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. can not win militarily. It is losing economically.
  All the White House may still be able to do now is to make peace with Iran (i.e. conceding defeat) while selling that a victorious outcome.   
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/05/war-on-iran-destroyer-battle-iran-can-sustain-losers-hold-cards.html

  More "Love Taps"? US Reportedly Struck 4 Iranian Tankers As Qatari LNG Tanker Traverses Strait
US reportedly struck 4 Iranian oil tankers attempting to traverse the Strait
  Qatari LNG Tanker entered the Strait for first time since start of war
US continues to await a formal response from Tehran on a proposal aimed at ending the war   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/qatari-lng-tanker-transits-hormuz-us-awaits-irans-response-peace-deal

  John Helmer, WHO GIVES A HUG – CHINA CHANGES ITS POSITION TOWARDS IRAN, US
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was greeted by Wang before they sat down with their delegations to talk. The top row shows Araghchi approaching Wang, shaking his hand, then inclining his head forward. Wang, reciprocating, leans forward, and the two men embrace. They then draw apart, as each man smiles at the other...
  If Trump “relapses into fighting” and does not “stick to negotiations”, Xi is communicating that Trump will not be allowed to land in Beijing next week.  China will not permit itself to be Trump’s cover for attacking Iran, as India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi allowed himself to endorse the Israeli-American war against Iran in the Knesset on February 25, two days before the war began.  Wang is changing the meaning of what he told Rubio on April 30.
  In the China Daily text report of the Wang-Araghchimeeting, the photograph was of the handshake, not the hug. That was not the only editorial cut. The China Daily text omitted Wang’s condemnation of the US and Israeli war since February 28 as “illegitimate”.    
  Wang’s spokesman was more explicit later: “China believes that bringing about a full stop of hostilities is of utmost urgency, a relapse in fighting must be avoided and sticking to negotiations is highly important. China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security and commends Iran’s willingness of seeking political settlement through diplomatic means. On issues regarding the Strait, resuming normal and safe passage at the Strait is a shared concern of the international community. China hopes that parties concerned will respond to the strong call of the international community as soon as possible. China advocates that the Gulf and Middle East countries need to take their fate into their own hands.”  
  “Fighting must be avoided…sticking to negotiations is highly important” – these are now China’s preconditions if Trump wants to hold his summit meeting and, as he promised on April 15: “President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there.”  
  China has just demonstrated it gives a hug – to Iran before the US.
  The Wang spokesman’s “commend[ation of] Iran’s willingness of seeking political settlement through diplomatic means” is  a reference to the one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding which the Israeli-American press  also Saudi state media,    are reporting as in current talks with the White House through Pakistani mediation.
  Wang was also telling the Gulf Arab sheikhdoms not to rely on either  American or Israeli, Indian or Pakistani promises and arms for their future security. But not only the Gulf sheikhs – 
“China advocates that the Gulf and Middle East countries need to take their fate into their own hands.”   https://johnhelmer.net/who-gives-a-hug-china-changes-its-position-towards-iran-us/#more-94166

​  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-05-10
IRGC threatens direct strikes on US forces. IRGC Aerospace Force stated missiles and drones are "locked onto American targets" and awaiting orders. IRGC Navy warned any aggression against Iranian tankers will trigger "heavy assault" on US regional centers and ships. Multiple sources confirm the posture is explicit and public.​..
​..Bulk carrier hit by projectile off Doha coast. UKMTO confirmed a cargo vessel was struck while anchored, with Iranian media claiming the target is US-owned. This is a new category of incident — anchored commercial shipping targeted, not just tankers in transit.​..
​..Iran moves to assert control over 7 undersea internet cables in Hormuz. IRGC-linked media published a regulatory proposal requiring permits, fees, Iranian-company maintenance, and compliance with Iranian law for all cables — which were deliberately routed through Omani waters to avoid Iranian jurisdiction.
​..F-35A squawking 7700 emergency descending toward UAE. Active emergency transponder code on a US F-35A over the Gulf region. No follow-up yet on outcome.​..
​..Hormuz: Iran operating as gatekeeper, not just blockade target​ - A Qatari LNG tanker, Al Kharaitiyat, transited Hormuz under IRGC-issued protocols — the first Qatari LNG vessel to attempt the route since the war began. Two earlier attempts in April turned back. Iran is running designated transit lanes, not a total closure.
​  US Central Command has now disabled four Iranian tankers in three weeks (Touska, Hasna, Sea Star, Sevda) and redirected 57+ vessels since the blockade began April 13.​..
​..A 45 sq km oil spill appeared on satellite imagery near Iran's Kharg Island, hub for 90% of Iranian oil exports. Cause unknown. Iran calls it "psychological warfare". (shanaka86, Kobeissi)
​  Karel Mercx: tanker crossings at zero for an unprecedented number of days. For every $1 in physical oil, $83 sits in derivatives. The financial market is pricing the wrong reality.
​  Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected all three US red lines: no halt to enrichment, no export of 400+ kg stockpile, no shared Hormuz control. (shanaka86)
Israel reportedly told Washington any return to war must include strikes on Iran's entire energy infrastructure within 24 hours, with Arab support​...
​..Energy supply chain stress entering agriculture and real economy
Thailand farmers are leaving fields barren because they can't afford fuel/fertilizer 
since the Iran war. First ag country to enter planting season under the supply shock. (Rebecca Tan)
​  US diesel at $5.64/gallon. (Hedgeye)
Explosion at a major New Orleans-area refinery as fuel markets tighten. US refineries being pushed to breaking point to compensate for lost Gulf supply. (zerohedge, Carolina Lion)
US credit card debt hit record $1.3 trillion. (Hedgeye)
Chevron CEO: "We're starting to see risks of supply outages".
JPMorgan chart shows world oil inventories in freefall. When the line hits 6.8, "the global energy system breaks" per Qasem Al-Ali.​..
​..Hezbollah drone war escalating
Hezbollah deployed fiber-optic wire-guided FPV drones, which cannot be jammed by electronic warfare. Scaling this would end the "easy walk" through Lebanon. (Lord Bebo)
​  15 drone operations in a single day on May 7: 7 vs troops, 8 vs vehicles.
 (Jon Elmer)
Direct hit by 2 drones in Shlomi resulting in casualties. (MenchOsint)
​  Hezbollah published video of 22 precision strikes in a single day. (Lascaris)
Israeli forward operating base in Iraq confirmed​ - WSJ reports Israel built and defended a secret base in Iraq's Najaf Desert during the Iran war. When an Iraqi military convoy approached, the Israeli Air Force attacked it. (Berletic, Faytuks Network)
​  USAF E-11A BACN aircraft has been orbiting over the base location for 12+ hours daily, possibly supporting Israeli communications.​..
​..Trump-Xi summit May 14-15: multiple chokepoints converge
Trump arrives Beijing May 14-15. 
Originally scheduled March 31, delayed because of the Iran war.
​  Four systems forced into one diplomatic window: Hormuz passage, US-China sanctions conflict
 (MOFCOM Blocking Order vs OFAC), rare-earth licensing cliff (Nov 10 2026), and Iran's unverifiable succession under Mojtaba Khamenei. (shanaka86)
​  OFAC designated 10 entities under Iran missile/drone procurement on May 8. Treasury warned two Chinese banks. Any Chinese bank that complies with OFAC risks Blocking Order exposure; any that ignores OFAC risks dollar-clearing severance. No clean compliance path exists.​   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-10

  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-05-09
Iran-US Strait of Hormuz clashes escalate again: US forces struck two Iran-flagged tankers (M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda) while Iran's IRGC Navy launched cruise missiles and drones at three US destroyers (USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, USS Mason). Iran claims hits and damage; CENTCOM denies. Destroyers confirmed withdrawn to Arabian Sea....
..3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire declared: Trump announced a ceasefire from May 9-11 for Russia's Victory Day. Ukraine promptly violated it with 1,365 recorded incidents including 887 drone strikes according to Russian MoD. Russia threatened massive strikes on Kyiv if the May 9 parade is disrupteda recon drone filmed the Ukrainian parliament to make the point...
..S&P 500 closes at all-time high, 7,398: Up +17.2% since March 30 per @KobeissiLetter — +$10 trillion in market cap in 29 trading days...
..US consumer sentiment hits all-time low...
..Tucker Carlson says he told Trump to his face that Netanyahu and allies are pushing war on Iran for Israeli interests — Trump replied: "Yeah, I know"
Fox News: ex-counterterrorism chief says US spy agencies agreed Iran wasn't building a nuke before war started...
..Oil Market Stress Intensifying
OPEC production collapsed from 29.6M b/d to 20.6M b/d — a 36-year low — in two months per @Ole_S_Hansen
  Citigroup's Max Layton warns Q3 pinch point could send oil to $180 per @Mark4XX
PBF Chalmette refinery in Louisiana exploded, adding to pattern of refinery incidents since war started
  Refining margins at insane levels with refiners ignoring safety protocols to run at max capacity
US oil exports hit record 8.2M barrels/day
 per @Hedgeye
  Physical oil prices converging down to paper, echoing 2020 dynamics — 700-800M barrel global inventory buffer being consumed...
..UFO Disclosure Drop — Distraction or History?
Pentagon released 162 UAP files
, including video from UAE, Iraq, Greece. Created a dedicated "UFO" section on its website
  Includes footage of an 8-pointed star UFO and NASA documents from Gemini VII with astronaut UFO reports
Trump: "What the hell is going on?" — praised himself for transparency
  Multiple accounts call it a distraction from Epstein files and the Iran situation   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-09

  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-05-08
US-Iran exchange fire in Strait of Hormuz, "ceasefire" in name only. US struck an Iranian oil tanker near Jask, then hit Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Port. Iran's IRGC Navy fired anti-ship missiles at three US destroyers (USS Truxtun, USS Mason, USS Rafael Peralta). Trump called it a "love tap" and insists ceasefire remains in effect. Iran says US violated the ceasefire and vows "powerful response"...
..Oil supply crisis accelerating toward demand destruction territory - WTI crude at $97, up $7 from session lows. Opened 4% higher on fresh clashes
  Eric Nuttall per @Mark4XX: Middle East output down 14 million bpd, global inventories down 700M barrels, physical shortages appearing in Africa, Europe, and Australia. Math points to $177/barrel for demand destruction
  US gas prices at $4.56/gallon, up 66% since December per Kobeissi
US airline fuel costs jumped $1.83B MoM in March (+56%) to a record $5.06B. Carriers withdrawing 2026 guidance
  UK facing jet fuel rationing risks, Goldman warns of "extreme physical tightness"
Iran cut production by 400,000 bpd
  SPR release results still not published - JustDario notes it's "starting to smell fishy"
Chris Martenson: US net imports crude because domestic production is the wrong type; exports only sustained by draining SPR   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-08

"Existential": Israel Quadruples Foreign-Influence Budget To Massive $730M   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/existential-israel-quadruples-foreign-influence-budget-massive-730m

  Israel Escalating Abuse of Palestinian Prisoners in Janot Isolation Wing, Rights Group Says 
The Asra Media Office of the Palestinian prisoner rights organization reported Thursday that conditions for detainees in the isolation wing Janot Prison inside Israel’s Nafha and Ramon prison are deteriorating sharply, with untreated skin diseases, denial of basic necessities, and systematic physical abuse by prison suppression units. Prisoners report widespread scabies infections going untreated, and are being denied clothing and bathing access. Raids by Israeli prison units involve strip searches, forcing detainees face-down on the ground for hours, physical assault, and stun grenades. Prisoners are then taken outside in handcuffs and left in harsh weather without adequate clothing — part of what the Office described as a deliberate campaign to break detainees physically and psychologically.   https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2052621156943909310

"Ceasefire with Israeli characteristics":  Israel Attacks Beirut For First Time In Nearly A Month: Assassination Raid   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-attacks-beirut-first-time-nearly-month-hezbollah-assassination-raid

Israeli strikes intensify across south Lebanon as death toll rises to 2,727 despite ceasefire   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/05/08/362739/

Israel’s war on the West Bank comes for Palestinian greenhouses   https://israelpalestinenews.org/palestinian-green-houses/

MSF: Israel’s deliberate restriction of food and aid led to alarming malnutrition levels in Gaza   https://israelpalestinenews.org/msf-israels-deliberate-restriction-of-food-and-aid-led-to-alarming-malnutrition-levels-in-gaza/

Israeli shelling, gunfire target displaced civilians in Gaza   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/05/08/362721/

  Times of Israel: Footage seems to contradict claim Arab prosecutor resisted arrest before cops beat him
Body cam footage leaked to Haaretz appears to show police officers pouncing on lawyer within seconds of entering Beersheba apartment     
https://www.timesofisrael.com/footage-seems-to-contradict-claim-arab-prosecutor-resisted-arrest-before-cops-beat-him/

New $270 million Israeli-only roads project in the West Bank is Netanyahu’s latest bid to impose de facto annexation   https://israelpalestinenews.org/west-bank-annexation-netanyahu/

30 House Dems Demand US Confirmation That Israel Has Nuclear Arsenal   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/30-house-dems-demand-us-confirmation-israel-has-nuclear-arsenal

Simplicius, Moscow Threatens Mass Strikes on Kiev Center Should Zelensky Disturb Sacred V-Day Ceremonies   https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/moscow-threatens-mass-strikes-on

"Ceasefire", but did not rain on the V-Day parade: Trump Gets Diplomatic Win In Ukraine War, 3-Day Ceasefire Declared For Russia's V-Day   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-gets-diplomatic-win-ukraine-war-3-day-ceasefire-declared-russias-v-day

Gilbert Doctorow, Shortest ever Victory in Europe parade on Red Square   https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/shortest-ever-victory-in-europe-parade

  SOROS PAID OBAMA $1.6 MILLION A MONTH TO TAKE OVER FOR THE SENILE CORPSE NAMED BIDEN — THE DEEP STATE PUPPET MASTER LITERALLY BOUGHT THE WHITE HOUSE! 
  The paper trail they thought nobody would ever find is now public: When Biden was clearly a drooling vegetable who couldn’t function, George Soros stepped in like the globalist godfather he is and bought himself a new front man — Barack Obama. The Soros Family Trust funneled $1.6 million every single month from June 2023 through January 2024 straight into an LLC tied directly to Michelle Obama. That exact same window is when the FBI’s Autopen Task Force says the flood of fraudulent documents and forged signatures exploded.   
https://x.com/mcafeenew/status/2052117444865732913

3 Days Left to Prosecute Anthony Fauci   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/3-days-left-to-prosecute-anthony

  RFK Jr. Says Mandatory Ultraprocessed Food Labels Are Coming
An HHS spokesperson confirmed that after hundreds of meetings with scientists and stakeholders at multiple federal agencies, a definition of ultraprocessed foods is almost ready. Last week, U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told Congress that “mandatory front-of-package labeling” will be required once the definition is finalized.   
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/rfk-jr-mandatory-ultraprocessed-food-labels-coming-hhs-policy/

  Steve Kirsch, AI analysis of internal CDC documents from the 2004 DeStefano study on MMR and autism shows they violated protocol and unethically omitted a 2.25 - 2.4 odds ratio associating MMR and autism
  Hooker's analysis had OR=3.86 similar to values found in other studies; it is statistically significant. The CDC knew in 2004 that the data showed the association, so they destroyed the data.   https://kirschsubstack.com/p/exclusive-ai-analysis-of-internal

John Leake has a full report to date: Hantavirus Outbreak on MV Hondius Cruise Ship - Latest reporting on the unhappy voyage.   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/hantavirus-outbreak-on-mv-hondius

Meryl Nass MD, Now it's Hantavirus! - Here are the relevant facts.   https://merylnass.substack.com/p/now-its-hantavirus

  I visited the Navajo Reservation, where I had just worked for 2 years, during this mystery outbreak, caused by thirsty rats and mice going to houses to find water, and leaving Hantavirus in their urine, which aerosolized and was inhaled, causing hemorrhagic pneumonias. A medicine-man had a dream that "mice are thirsty  and going to houses", which broke the case as to the cause: 1993 Four Corners hantavirus outbreak   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Four_Corners_hantavirus_outbreak

  Peter McCullough MD, WHO Blunder Imperils Remaining Passengers on Hantavirus-Infected Cruise Ship
Locked-down in cabins, HVAC system not sterilized from rodent excrement dust carrying virions, passengers are sitting ducks for fatal illness   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/who-blunder-imperils-remaining-passengers

  Natural Red Algae Protein Slashes Hantavirus Viral Load by >99.99% in Lab Models and Protects 80% of Mice from Lethal Infection
As the hantavirus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship makes global headlines, a powerful natural antiviral—Griffithsin—remains overlooked.   
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/natural-red-algae-protein-slashes

  Another single-stranded RNA virus... Why Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine Could Work for Hantavirus
As the WHO downplays ivermectin for hantavirus, the underlying science and preclinical data tell a very different story.   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/why-ivermectin-and-hydroxychloroquine

  The Vaccine Cartel and US Army Are Developing 13 Hantavirus Vaccines and Gene Therapies
As a cruise ship outbreak unfolds, the U.S. Army’s “needle-free” DNA gene therapy platforms come into focus.   
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/the-vaccine-cartel-and-us-army-are

Bacteria and fungi produce proteins that act as ice condensation nuclei in clouds, precipitating rain: How bacteria, fungi and plants evolved paleo-rain   https://climatewaterproject.substack.com/p/how-bacteria-fungi-and-plants-evolved

  Climate Physicist Anastassia Makarieva, Simplicity and Complexity, Doing and Non-Doing, Restoring and Preserving
A StoryMoss conversation with John D. Liu and Anastassia Makarieva, in anticipation of the Global Earth Repair Convergence
..Anastassia: Right now I am in St. Petersburg. But soon we will travel to Siberia, to the taiga forest.
Emmanuelle: Wow.
  Anastassia: It is not possible to study something that you have not seen and felt. That is very important, because formulas do not communicate the full truth. But when you have seen the truth, you can write down the right formula — one that will have meaning, hopefully. That is at least how we think about our work: trying to make it meaningful.
  Megan: Beautiful. Do you have internet there in Siberia?
Anastassia: No, no, no. No way. We do not even have electricity. You are totally immersed in nature.
 We let ourselves be in nature. It is also a very particular emotional and spiritual experience, because you detach from the digital world and tune entirely to the green revival of nature.
  In Siberia, spring comes and winter becomes summer very quickly. You see this burst of life coming from almost nowhere, and it carries you away with its wave. You feel that you are reviving.
  And there are lots of mosquitoes. You go through all of this like any animal, and you feel that you are becoming part of it. That is very important.   
https://bioticregulation.substack.com/p/simplicity-and-complexity-doing-and

  The Day Civilization Runs Out Of Bread Will Not Feel Like Fiction
One of the most disturbing conclusions emerging from famine modeling is that modern civilization possesses remarkably little resilience once synchronized global shortages begin appearing
. International trade networks function efficiently during normal conditions precisely because they rely on predictability. Under extreme pressure, however, governments tend to abandon cooperative frameworks rapidly in favor of domestic preservation. Export bans would likely emerge within days of confirmed agricultural collapse. Strategic grain reserves would become politically weaponized. Transportation systems already strained by fuel shortages and economic panic could deteriorate rapidly, preventing aid distribution even when supplies remain technically available.
  History offers numerous examples of societies destabilized by food insecurity, but the modern world has never experienced simultaneous scarcity affecting billions of people across multiple continents.   
https://madgewaggy.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-day-civilization-runs-out-of-bread.html

  Self-preserving bread since 1570, an excellent short video: What Was Pumpernickel? The 2-Ingredient Bread That Lasted 6 Months
In the year 1570, a baker named Jörgen Haverland opens a shop in the Westphalian city of Soest. He sells one product. A loaf made from cracked rye kernels and water. No yeast. No fat. No sugar. No preservatives of any kind. He loads the dough into sealed iron pans, slides them into a stone oven, and does not open the door for 24 hours. When the loaves come out, they are so dark they look like they were carved from wet earth. The texture is dense, sticky, almost like cooked grain pressed into a block. The taste is sweet, though nothing sweet has gone into the dough. Haverland wraps the loaves in linen, stacks them in his cellar, and they will still be there six months later — unrefrigerated, untreated, unspoiled. 
  That bakery is still operating today, on the same street in Soest, still baking the same bread, still following the purity rule Jörgen Haverland established over 450 years ago. Today we are going to show you how that was possible — the grain that resists decay, the fermentation that kills mold before it starts, and the 24-hour bake that transforms raw rye into something chemically closer to preserved meat than to bread. Because this loaf was not primitive peasant food. It was the most sophisticated preservation system ever applied to a grain.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R561wArN_84

Around the world in 80 bakes, no.71: Westfälischer Pumpernickel from Germany   https://polything.com/2021/10/16/around-the-world-in-80-bakes-no-71-westfalischer-pumpernickel-from-germany/

How to Make Pumpernickel Bread | Flour, Water, Salt, No Leavening   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBlr_EA0gvw

How to Make a Sourdough Starter (with Rye Flour)   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqp5CQnN38k

"Try it, You'll like it": Mestemacher Westphalian Pumpernickel Bread, 8.8 oz $3.49 ea   https://www.centralmarket.com/product/mestemacher-westphalian-pumpernickel-bread-88-oz/4525001

Organic Steel-Cut Cracked Rye   https://centralmilling.com/product/organic-steel-cut-cracked-rye/

  2.2 lb Pullman Loaf Pan with Lid, 13x4 Carbon Steel Bread Loaf Pan Nonstick Corrugated Bakeware, Pullman Loaf Pan Bread Pan for Sandwich Bread, Sourdough & Homemade Bread, Heavy Duty Easy Clean (3)   https://www.walmart.com/ip/2-2-lb-Pullman-Loaf-Pan-Lid-13x4-Carbon-Steel-Bread-Loaf-Pan-Nonstick-Corrugated-Bakeware-Pullman-Loaf-Pan-Bread-Pan-Sandwich-Bread-Sourdough-Homemad/20050271196?classType=REGULAR&from=/search

The Rye Baker: Classic Breads from Europe and America Hardcover – Illustrated, September 27, 2016   https://www.amazon.com/Rye-Baker-Classic-Breads-America/dp/0393245217

​Planning for Sustenance (pictured with some fresh carrots)