Thursday, May 21, 2026

Permanent Demand Destruction

 Home Economists,


  The 2 month empty-bubble in the Hormuz transit chan to the world has hit, so actual effects of shortage will follow as soon as buffer-supplies of fuels and materials are exhausted. Prices rose already, and the combination of high prices and inadequate supply to sustain usage rates by businesses and households will caus a lot of businesses and households to fail, so they won't have money for oil, natural gas and the products they produce. Their economic-demand will be "destroyed".   More destruction, much of it permanent demand-destruction will happen every day and every weekeven after supplies befgin arriving again. Much ability to export oil, gas and products has been destroyed. Shipping insurance will remain expensive, another drag on the economy, which is based on cheap oil, coal and gas being readily available.
  Restaurants and tourist businesses that survived COVID lockdowns may go out of business from this. Anything that is not essential will be cut by peole who have to buy more expensive necessities. Governments giving some people money will not alter the physical economic realities, but may shift the impacts a bit.
  Shortages of jet fuel and diesel will make products transported to us more  expensive, and may eliminate some of them. These "middle-distillate" quantities were limited by peak conventional oil in 2005, because they cannot be dervied from lighter fracked and natural-gas-liquids. That diesel-plateau has been an ongoing damper on real economy. I think that "the purpose of a thing is what it does" is an aphorism which applies here. The Hormuz blockade is to choke the world of critical resources, which will force permanent destruction of some business and personal uses of those resources. The war makes it work.
  For now, maybe all year, the politics of the Hormuz war is stalemated. Neither party can force a capitulation of the other, and either party can keep the strait effectively closed. Nither Iran nor US/Israel can back down politically at this point. This is a long term hopeless-situation developing.
  I am not advocating any big ideas, but just individual economizing and alternate provisioning of essentials like food, water and maybe fuel, before physical shortages are already present. Can we pay off our loans and keep our tanks full? I'm growing vegetables, planning an expansion to start tis weekend and maintaining my bicycles and body.
  I'm planning a summer solstice garden-party on that June weekend in Yoakum. Save up your gas-rations if you want to come!

  The Honest Sorcerer, The Hormuz Hangover: Bend Not Break? Will hitting tank bottoms usher in the end of civilization, or mark the beginning of a new era?
Observed global inventories, including oil in crude carrier ships, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, equivalent to a steady 4 million barrels per day flow on average.
  This rate of inventory drawdown is simply unsustainable. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve released 8.6 million barrels last week, bringing the total amount to 31 million barrels delivered since the end of March. That’s the largest ever weekly release...
..Instead of letting the system to run out of juice, and thereby causing widespread chaos, governments and energy agencies around the world will have to make tough decisions. These will concern which petrol station to deliver fuel to, which large customer to serve, which refinery to stop—and which of these should remain without fuel for a week or two longer... Flows through the Strait of Hormuz, important though they are to the world economy, do not represent the entirety of the oil industry. Yes, the loss of these flows is horrible. Yes, there will be serious shortages from plastic to food and many other items. But the world will not stop or collapse immediately—it will rearrange itself...
..It should not come as a surprise then that the general public is being prepared for a long blockade. In an article titled: U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months we are told that a “CIA estimate says Iran can survive the U.S. blockade for 90 to 120 days — and maybe longer — before facing more severe economic hardship.” In government speak this means: we plan to stay at least 3-4 months and then we’ll see if we have to stay even longer...  It is going to take far-far longer than 3-4 months to break Iran. Three to four years would be a far more honest estimate—and China’s plus Russia’s so far unwavering support throws even that estimate into question...
..The best analogue, perhaps, was the 1980’s: a decade of deep recessions and stagflation, hallmarked by sky high interest rates, outsourcing, financialization, wage stagnation and an unprecedented rise in private debt.
  Behind these economic trends, however, we saw an unprecedented level of demand destruction: high oil prices (increasing tenfold in less than a decade) have ushered in an era of fuel efficient vehicles and a diversification of energy sources. Oil output, as a result, remained muted—at 10-12% lower volumes than during the later years of the 1970’s...
..The West, through fuel efficiency measures, has lowered its dependence on oil from around 50% during the 1970’s to 40% by the 1990’s...
..China still generates 58% of its energy from coal: and not just “electrons” but high heat turning iron ore into steel, reducing silica into polycrystalline silicon, or turning limestone and clay into cement. China burns half of all the coal mined on the entire planet...
..As you can see from the above, the real missing ingredient here—or the only possible way out of the crisis ahead—will be demand destruction... Improved fuel economy, outsourcing, switching to burning gas and building nuclear power plants in the 1980’s helped to reduce demand for oil, but today all of these measures are exhausted, or would take too much time, too many skilled laborers, and too many other resources… Things we no longer have... Supply was removed so fast, that it left no room for adaption. During 1981/82 oil production took one year to recede 10% as a result of demand destruction (caused by high prices), and still caused a massive, double dip recession. Now this level of supply reduction happened practically overnight, leaving us to drain our oil inventories at a record pace...
..The world economy is entering a prolonged (read: years long) period of stagnation at best, which will most likely prove to be the definitive end to centuries of economic growth and the beginning to the long decline of modern industrial civilization. Let’s face it: there is absolutely no return to the world we knew in February, 2026. We are most likely entering a decade long recession, with rising unemployment, worsening food security (not just in the Global South!), countries hoarding resources and a world trading and political system in shambles.   https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-hormuz-hangover-bend-not-break

  Gold & Geopolitics spells it out: Cut the fuel, cut the future - The substrate problem
Global oil output is projected to fall 6.6% in Q2 - the largest quarterly drop since the COVID lockdowns shut the world down on purpose.
Tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed from around seventy a day to fewer than fifteen...
..Economies are contracting. They haven’t decided to use less energy. The energy dropped off stage right, and the productivity tumbled with it...
..Markets are treating this as an oil price story. “Look at the futures curve”, they say. “Look at the energy-sector equities”, they say. Listen to the CNBC anchors fretting about whether $90 Brent prices in the Iran risk or not.
  It is not an oil price story. It is a productivity story.
  If five percent of the global energy budget structurally goes offline - and that is roughly the order of magnitude we are looking at if Hormuz access stays degraded for the medium term - that’s not five percent more expensive transport.
  That’s five percent off the dinosaur juice the entire productivity machine runs on. It doesn't slow proportionally. It seizes
, and never where the models said it would.
  In 1973 we lost roughly the same fraction of supply and produced a decade of stagflation, two oil-importing-country debt crises, the permanent collapse of Bretton Woods, and a fundamental reordering of the global political economy. None of those outcomes are in the 2026 bingo cards...
..Innovation needs fuel. Cut the budget, and you cut the future.   https://no01.substack.com/p/cut-the-fuel-cut-the-future


  Nate Hagens suggests ways to work on this yourself and not wait to be saved: What to Do As the World Falls Apart: A Framework for Action
The central theme is this: We are near the peak of a one-time Carbon Pulse. An army of 500 billion human-worker-equivalents that cost us pennies, which – when combined with machines – do the vast majority of physical work in our societies. On top of that, we’re burning them over a million times faster than they were created, meaning we’re also drawing down the main bank account supporting our lifestyles.   https://natehagens.substack.com/p/essay-what-to-do-as-the-world-falls    


  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-05-20
Bond market bloodbath reaches crisis levels. US 30Y yield hit 5.19%, the highest since July 2007, driven by two massive Treasury block sales. Japan's 10Y breached 2.80% for the first time since 1997, 30Y hit an all-time 4.17%, and 40Y crossed 4.4%. G7 10+ year yields are at ~4.7%, surpassing the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. 30Y TIPS are at the highest outside Lehman's collapse...
..Trump gives Iran 2-3 days before another "big hit". Gulf leaders convinced Trump to pause a planned attack, though several Gulf officials said they were unaware of the imminent plan Trump described per WSJ. Pentagon urged no resumption partly because Iran grew more effective tracking US air operations per NYT. IRGC warns next war "will go beyond the borders of the region". CRS disclosed 42 US aircraft lost or damaged during the war...
..Oil inventory collapse accelerating. API reported crude draw of -9.1M barrels (exp. -3.4M), gasoline -5.8M, SPR -9.9M. IEA chief Birol warns commercial stocks have "only several weeks" remaining...
..Thomas Massie loses Kentucky primary in the most expensive congressional primary in US history. ~$20-35M spent, largely from pro-Israel lobby groups. Massie won voters under 45 by 30 points but lost overall. Broad outrage from left and right about foreign lobby influence in US elections...
..Japan's financial system approaching breaking point - BOJ is "completely losing control of the long duration" curve per JustDario
  Japan used ~$70B in FX reserves to push USD/JPY from 160 to 156; it's crept back to ~159 with roughly two large interventions left before they must sell USTs
  JustDario: the US30Y-JP30Y spread at ~108bp is approaching danger territory, ~30bp buffer before "things might become pretty ugly somewhere in the global financial system"
  Honda posted its first annual loss in 70 years as a public company
PM Takaichi preparing to issue more debt for gasoline subsidies, cratering JGBs further...
..Semiconductor bubble at historical extremes - BofA: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is 62% above its 200DMA per shanaka86 citing Hartnett — only the Mississippi Bubble (1720, 73%) and Nasdaq in March 2000 (55%) have matched...
..Iran building parallel sovereign infrastructure on Hormuz - Iran launched Hormuz Safe (Bitcoin-settled maritime insurance, projecting $10B annual revenue) and the Persian Gulf Strait Authority for transit management
  Iran threatens to impose fees on undersea internet/SWIFT cables running through Iranian territorial waters
($15B revenue floated)...
..Russia-China summit formalizes multipolar architecture - Putin arrived in Beijing to a higher-level reception than Trump received — greeted by Politburo member Wang Yi rather than a retired VP
  Putin and Xi signed a joint declaration on forming a "multipolar world" with 40+ agreements: ruble-yuan financial networks, guaranteed energy flows, strategic alliance...
..Consumer debt reaching crisis levels - Credit card serious delinquencies at 13.1%, highest since Q4 2010, with the +5.5pp surge since Q3 2022 exceeding the 2007-2010 Financial Crisis increase
  Auto loan delinquencies at 5.6%, record high - Student loan 90+ day delinquencies at 10.3%
40% of Americans earning $300K+ living paycheck to paycheck per Goldman
  Mortgage rates hit 6.75%, highest since July 2025. Housing affordability at all-time low   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-20

Pentagon Urged No Resumption Of Strikes As Iran Grew More Effective Tracking US Air Ops: NYT   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pentagon-urged-no-resumption-strikes-iran-grew-more-effective-tracking-us-air-ops-nyt

Israel will demand and get US-Iran war in any case: Ayatollah Orders Highly-Enriched Uranium To Remain In Iran, Stymying Trump's Basis For Deal   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ayatollah-orders-highly-enriched-uranium-remain-iran-stymying-trumps-basis-deal

Real Netanyahu or AI "Netanyahu? Tense Trump-Netanyahu Call As US Presses Iran To 'Sign The Document' - But Israel Wants Military Greenlight   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-warns-will-take-war-beyond-region-if-trump-restarts-attacks

  A new mideast military balance is taking shape: Pakistan deploys thousands of troops, jets fighter squadron to Saudi Arabia: Report
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are seeking to expand their alliance to include Turkiye and Qatar amid the US-Israeli war on Iran   https://thecradle.co/articles/pakistan-deploys-thousands-of-troops-jets-fighter-squadron-to-saudi-arabia-report

  M. K. BHADRAKUMAR  -  India’s quasi-alliance with Israel and UAE won’t have happy ending
This is an inflection point as the Israeli special forces arrive at the Strait of Hormuz. And there is also the regional backdrop of the Emirati / Israeli rift with Riyadh deepening following the latter’s stubborn refusal to join the Abraham Accords.
  Being the Custodian of the Holy Places, the Kingdom has existential concerns regarding the trajectory that Jewish supremacists are taking to ram down the throat of the Muslim Middle East their Zionist project at a juncture when Riyadh has disengaged from proxy wars and is sensitive to the anti-Israeli sentiments in the Arab Street.  
  Riyadh senses that the UAE’s exit from OPEC aside, the recent attack on Port Sudan on May 4 by drones launched from an Emirati-Israeli base on the Red Sea with the aid of Emirati ships, is a provocative move to force Saudi hands. Sudan has formally accused the UAE of providing arms, advanced weaponry, and supplying drones to the Rapid Support Forces fighting the Sudanese army with Emirati-Israeli backing.
  The Emirati attack came following the meeting at Jeddah on April 20 in Jeddah between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sudan’s army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan where they “emphasised the importance of ensuring Sudan’s security and stability” as well as “preserving its sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity” — per Saudi readout —and also discussed the latest developments in Sudan.
  What is at stake here is the strategic control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (‘Gate of Tears’) that connects Red Sea on one side to the Gulf of Aden (and Arabian Sea) and at the other side would give Israeli submarines ‘freedom of navigation’ to Indian Ocean through waters straddling the Saudi coastline (approx. 1,760 – 2,600 km stretching from Jordanian border to Yemen.)  
  Enter Pakistan. First of all, Indian strategists ought to put in proper perspective the first Pakistani military deployments in Saudi Arabia recently within the framework of the Saudi-Pakistani defence pact. Prudence demands that Delhi treads wearily, as variables are at work and we have no real reason to annoy the Kingdom, which hosts the single biggest concentration of NRIs in entire West Asia. Only fools rush in where angels fear to tread.   
https://www.indianpunchline.com/indias-quasi-alliance-with-israel-and-uae-wont-have-happy-ending/

  Trump’s $40bn Hormuz insurance scheme fails to cover a single ship: Report
Iran has launched a new body to manage transit through the strategic waterway, along with a crypto-backed insurance scheme for commercial vessels   
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/37758

Piracy is affordable: Third Iran-Linked 'Shadow Fleet' Tanker Seized By US Navy Off South Asia   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-plummets-nato-mulls-hormuz-deployment-if-strait-not-open-july

U.S. Naval Blockade Halts Loadings at Iran’s Kharg Island as Exports Shift to Jask Terminal   https://www.thedefensenews.com/US-Naval-Blockade-Halts-Loadings-at-Irans-Kharg-Island-as-Exports-Shift-to-Jask-Terminal/

  Senate Advances War Powers Resolution Meant To End Trump’s War With Iran - The resolution passed a procedural vote 50-47 and still needs to face a final Senate vote   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/05/19/senate-advances-war-powers-resolution-meant-to-end-trumps-war-with-iran/

  Senate advances bill aimed at ending Iran war as Cassidy, after primary loss, flips to support
Since Trump ordered the attack on Iran at the end of February, Democrats have forced repeated votes on war powers resolutions that would require him either to gain congressional approval or withdraw U.S. troops. Republicans had been able to muster the votes to reject those proposals, but Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy — fresh off a primary election loss in which Trump endorsed his opponent — switched sides.
  The 50-47 vote tally showed that a small but growing number of Republicans are willing to challenge Trump on the Iran war, even though the effort may not advance much further. Three Republicans were absent Tuesday and their votes would be enough to defeat the measure.   
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us--iran-congress-215141280.html

Trump’s Iran War Backlash Deepens as NYT Poll Shows Approval Collapse   https://www.palestinechronicle.com/trumps-iran-war-backlash-deepens-as-nyt-poll-shows-approval-collapse/

Xi Warns US Against New Iran Strikes, Denounces 'Law Of The Jungle', As Putin Talks Energy Leverage In Beijing Summit   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/xi-warns-us-against-new-iran-strikes-denounces-law-jungle-putin-talks-energy-leverage

  Foreign Treasury Selling Is Getting Serious -   We already knew that the bond market was starting to call bullshit on America’s fiscal and monetary policy. Now we know that foreign governments are dumping U.S. Treasuries, and China is leading the way…even while President Trump pals around with President Xi Jinping.   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/foreign-treasury-selling-getting-serious

Warnings over sharp decline in humanitarian aid flow into Gaza   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/05/19/363462/

  The IOF "did not aim at anybody's eyes this time. IDF intercepts all ships in Gaza-bound flotilla, over 400 activists being transferred to Israel
Foreign Ministry denounces Global Sumud Flotilla’s attempt to break blockade as ‘a PR stunt at the service of Hamas,’ stresses rubber bullets were fired at ships and not activists   https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-intercepts-all-ships-in-gaza-bound-flotilla-over-400-activists-being-transferred-to-israel/

 Insult to injury... US imposes sanctions on Gaza flotilla organisers amid Israeli crackdown
Rights advocates say Trump administration is using sanctions and ‘terrorism label’ to silence Palestinian activism.   
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/19/us-imposes-sanctions-on-gaza-flotilla-organisers-amid-israeli-crackdown

Israel becomes world’s most disliked country: survey (followed closely by North Korea, Afghanistan, Iran and the USA)

  Are they pretending to try an AI-ghost? Israeli court postpones Netanyahu corruption hearing for ‘security’ reasons
Delay comes as Israeli forces attacked Gaza-bound aid flotilla carrying activists from 39 countries in international waters   https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-court-postpones-netanyahu-corruption-hearing-for-security-reasons/3940850

  Genocide laughs last? In Response To ICC Arrest Warrant, Israel’s Smotrich Orders the Destruction of a Palestinian Village
The ICC is reportedly seeking a warrant for Smotrich over his role in expanding illegal settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/05/19/in-response-to-icc-arrest-warrant-israels-smotrich-orders-the-destruction-of-a-palestinian-village/

Jewish settlers torch wheat field, attack farmers in W. Bank   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/05/19/363450/

Israeli army bulldozes property, delivers orders against homes in Bethlehem   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/05/18/363375/

Gaza’s water crisis: Families survive on less than 10 liters a day amid Israel’s ongoing genocide   https://israelpalestinenews.org/gazas-water-crisis-families-survive-on-less-than-10-liters-a-day-amid-israels-ongoing-genocide/

IOF kidnaps, detains dozens of Palestinians in W. Bank raids   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/05/19/363439/

Warnings over Khan al-Ahmar displacement plan as Hamas calls it “ethnic cleansing”   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/05/19/363459/

  Israel launches strikes across Lebanon, warns dozen towns to evacuate
The Israeli military on Tuesday launched a series of strikes across Lebanon, particularly the south, while warning residents of a dozen towns to flee ahead of attacks despite an ongoing truce   
https://www.spacewar.com/afp/260519164422.tj1gwidy.html

22 Killed in Israeli Strikes on Lebanon in the Last 24 Hours - IDF reiterates evacuation orders for 12 towns​   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/05/19/israeli-strikes-on-southern-lebanon-kill-six-wound-at-least-three/ 

​  IDF struggles to throttle endless feed of soldiers posting misdeeds on social media
Troops keep recording their own misconduct
, including smashing a statue of Jesus in Lebanon, but the army claims progress in curbing posts that fuel international criticism and risk operational security​   
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-struggles-to-throttle-endless-feed-of-soldiers-posting-misdeeds-on-social-media/

‘Army Will Collapse’ – Draft Evasion, Reserve Exhaustion Deepen Israeli Military Crisis​   https://www.palestinechronicle.com/army-will-collapse-draft-evasion-reserve-exhaustion-deepen-israeli-military-crisis/

South African Farming Crisis May Trigger Food Shortages Across The Continent​    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/south-african-farming-crisis-may-trigger-food-shortages-across-continent

UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration​   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-reactivates-supply-chain-stress-watch-after-detecting-alarmingly-rapid-deterioration

Belarus Rattles Europe With Drills Involving Russian Tactical Nukes​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/belarus-rattles-europe-drills-involving-russian-tactical-nukes

​  Ukraine preparing strikes on Russia from NATO country – Moscow
Latvia’s membership in the bloc will not protect it from Russian retaliation, the Foreign Intelligence Service has warned​   
https://web.archive.org/web/20260519124125/https://www.rt.com/russia/640160-ukraine-drone-latvia-nato/

​  Kremlin Blasts 'Borderline Crazy' Threat From Baltic NATO State
Russia has express outrage and condemnation of what it has on Wednesday denounced as a "borderline crazy threat" from NATO member Lithuania.
​  Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys in an interview this week with Neue Zurcher Zeitung provocatively stated that NATO is capable of destroying all Russian bases located in Kaliningrad if necessary.​   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-blasts-borderline-crazy-threat-baltic-nato-state

NATO Scrambles Jet, Shoots Down Ukrainian Drone Over Estonia, In War First​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nato-scrambles-jet-shoots-down-errant-ukrainian-drone-over-estonia-war-first

​  Simplicius, Russian SVR Hints Strikes on NATO 'Decision-Making Centers' After Latest Drone Provocations
New drone incursions took place in Lithuania and Estonia, the latter of which managed to finally become the first NATO state to successfully shoot down such a drone, to euphoric celebrations...Oddly during the latest incident, despite Latvia claiming to have no knowledge of the incurring drone, a NATO patrol craft was operating precisely over Baltic skies ​... By a very strange coincidence, a Swedish reconnaissance aircraft, the Gulfstream G-IVSP (S102B Korpen), is flying over the area where Ukrainian drones were shot down. Formally, it is monitoring the ongoing Russian-Belarusian military exercises, but the coincidence is surprising.
​  As another comedic consequence of the latest drone scares, the Latvian oil terminal which was hit by a Ukrainian drone last week is being shut down. That means not only has the entire Latvian government and defense ministry collapsed over this one incident, but even energy infrastructure couldn’t bear the weight of it​...
..But the most serious bit of news relating to the drone scare, which validated much of what is presently occurring, came from an official communique published by Russia’s SVR intelligence service. It stated quite directly that Ukraine is “plotting to use Latvia” as a launchpad for strikes...​ 
.."It is on this basis that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is preparing to launch a series of new terrorist attacks on the rear regions of the Russian Federation.
​  According to the data obtained, Kiev does not intend to limit itself to using the air corridors provided by the Baltic states for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is also planned to launch drones from the territory of these countries. This tactic is intended to significantly reduce the time required to reach targets and increase the effectiveness of terrorist attacks.
​  Despite the Latvian side’s concerns about becoming a victim of Moscow’s retaliatory strike, the Kiev authorities convinced Riga to agree to the operation.​"  ... "One can only sympathize with the naivety of the Latvian leaders. Modern intelligence tools allow for the reliable determination of the coordinates of the UAV’s launch point.​"...
..For what it’s worth, the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately denied all Russian allegations, summoning the Russian Charge d’Affaires and lodging a formal complaint in shrill fashion.​   https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russian-svr-hints-strikes-on-nato

​  US investigates 56 cases of corruption and theft of American weapons in Ukraine
According to a report prepared by the inspectors general of the Pentagon, the State Department
, and the now effectively dismantled US Agency for International Development, 13 other investigations have been closed​   
https://tass.com/world/2132743

Cuban Foreign Minister Says US Is Building 'Fraudulent Case' For Military Action​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cuban-foreign-minister-says-us-building-fraudulent-case-military-action

Cuban Leader Warns Of Potential 'Bloodbath' If US Takes Military Action​   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cuban-leader-warns-potential-bloodbath-if-us-takes-military-action

Nimitz Carrier Strike Group arrives in the Caribbean as Trump admin ups pressure on Cuba​   https://nypost.com/2026/05/20/us-news/nimitz-carrier-strike-group-arrives-in-the-caribbean-as-trump-admin-ups-pressure-on-cuba/

​But we still can't have little pick-up trucks: EPA Unwinds Massive Biden-Era Auto Emissions Regulations That Had 2027 Deadline​   https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/epa-unwinds-massive-biden-era-auto-emissions-regulations-had-2027-deadline

Big Pharma RINO Bill Cassidy Smoked By Trump-Endorsed Candidate In Louisiana Senate Primary​   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/big-pharma-rino-bill-cassidy-smoked-trump-endorsed-candidate-louisiana-senate-primary

​Monday, Thomas Massie Introduces Bill To Finally Force AIPAC To Register As A Foreign Agent Under FARA   https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2026-05-18/thomas-massie-introduces-bill-finally-force-aipac-register-foreign-agent-under-fara

Yet hope still remained... Pro-Israel Forces Throw Kitchen Sink At Massie Ahead Of Tuesday Primary​   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/pro-israel-forces-throw-kitchen-sink-massie-ahead-tuesday-primary

​He wouldn't debate, just ran lots of ads: Massie Out: Gallrein Wins Kentucky Republican Primary   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/primaries-held-6-states-what-watch

John Leake, The Best Government that Money Can Buy​ - Ed Gallrein wins the Kentucky Primary, the most expensive in House history   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/the-best-government-that-money-can

Now That's The Ticket! Trump's IRS Settlement Bars Tax Audits Of Trump & Family   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trumps-irs-settlement-bars-tax-audits-trump-family

Just before she dies of cancer; for performing her duty honorably: Colorado Governor Commutes Election Whistleblower Tina Peters’ Sentence   https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/05/15/colorado-governor-commutes-election-whistleblower-tina-peters-sentence-n4952919#google_vignette

​  Germany: 1 in 5 ex-voters of legacy SPD and CDU parties say they would never back them again as AfD extends polling lead
New polling shows the AfD pulling seven points ahead nationally, while state polling points to major gains in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern​   
https://rmx.news/article/germany-1-in-5-ex-voters-of-legacy-spd-and-cdu-parties-say-they-would-never-back-them-again-as-afd-extends-polling-lead/

​  Nearly half of French voters may support National Rally, and immigration is a major concern
RN "has managed to unite very different electorates around a common foundation," says the director of one foundation​   
https://rmx.news/article/nearly-half-of-french-voters-may-support-national-rally-and-immigration-is-a-major-concern/

Starmer Hit With Legal Threat After Barring Conservative Speakers From Entering UK For National Rally​   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/starmer-hit-legal-threat-after-barring-conservative-speakers-entering-uk-national-rally

Watch: Vance Urges UK Patriots To Defend Their Culture Against Starmer Mass Migration Betrayal​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-vance-urges-uk-patriots-defend-their-culture-against-starmer-mass-migration

​  Residents Of UK Town Forced To Form 'Vigilante' Security Team To Protect Women And Kids From Migrants
Residents of a quiet East Sussex town have been left with no choice but to patrol their own streets after the leftist Labour government dumped hundreds of unvetted male migrants into a former army camp on their doorstep​   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/residents-uk-town-forced-form-vigilante-security-team-protect-women-and-kids-migrants

​"Couldn't let people see bad news and just refuse vaccines, could we?" UK COVID Inquiry's Endorsement Of Censorship Sets Chilling Precedent   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uk-covid-inquirys-endorsement-censorship-sets-chilling-precedent

  Getting rid of the reformers: EXCLUSIVE: FDA official Tracy Høeg fired after refusing to resign
Høeg says she first learned about rumours of her departure through media reports before being told by FDA officials to resign or be terminated​   https://blog.maryannedemasi.com/p/exclusive-fda-official-tracy-heg

​  Lots and lots of biowarfare testing on unwitting Americans: Sasha Latypova, Congressional records for Biological Testing Involving Human Subjects by the Department of Defense, 1942-1977   https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/congressional-records-for-biological

  It may be the moral duty of some to spread meat allergy to others through ticks: Peer-Reviewed Paper Says Genetically Engineering Ticks to Spread Meat Allergies Is “Morally Obligatory"
​  Western Michigan professors claim that CRISPR-edited ticks should be used to spread alpha-gal syndrome as “moral bioenhancement” to force humans away from eating meat.​   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/peer-reviewed-paper-says-genetically

​Paul Marik MD, Vitamin D and Cancer: The Missing Link Oncology Keeps Ignoring - A Tier 1 Anticancer Drug   https://substack.com/home/post/p-190157303

  Steve Kirsch, Cumulative death slope data from OWID shows very clearly that the vaccines didn't work
I plotted the cumulative death slope for every COVID wave in every country as a dot on an x-y axis. Then I fit a line through the dots. The line slopes up. That means the shots didn't work.​   https://kirschsubstack.com/p/cumulative-death-slope-data-from

​  Steve Kirsch, UK data shows vaccinated died more during COVID waves. Whoops!
Grok claims I spread misinformation so I challenged Grok to show me the best data source and method proving that I was wrong. The data and method suggested by Grok showed I was right. Whoops!​   https://kirschsubstack.com/p/uk-data-shows-vaccinated-died-more

​  RFK Jr. Leading ‘Intense,’ Multi-Agency Study on Childhood Vaccine Safety, New York Times Reports
The initiative, first revealed by The New York Times, includes “a look at the overall effect of the childhood vaccine schedule.” Researchers will compare the health outcomes of vaccinated and unvaccinated kids, and examine possible links between vaccines and autism — including whether thimerosal, a mercury-based adjuvant used in some vaccines, may trigger autism.​   
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/rfk-jr-leading-intense-multi-agency-study-childhood-vaccine-safety/

​  Don't kiss a loved-one who just died of Ebola, OK? The Kiss of Death: How Tribal Rites and Neglected Medicine Fuel the Ebola Scourge
Shadows of a pathogen that turns mourning into mortality, the intersection of sacred burial traditions and crumbling healthcare infrastructure creates the perfect corridor for epidemic catastrophe.​   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/the-kiss-of-death-how-tribal-rites

​  Specific to this brand new strain of Ebola; how prescient! Moderna Began Developing a Bundibugyo Ebola mRNA “Vaccine” Just 4 Months Before WHO Declared a Global Emergency - Bill Gates-backed CEPI awarded Moderna and Oxford $26.7 million to develop multivalent Ebola mRNA and viral vector shots in January 2026.   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/moderna-began-developing-a-bundibugyo

Immunocompetent human (pictured with full rainwater cistern)


Saturday, May 16, 2026

Competing For Less Pie

 Non Club Members,


  Eleni sent this well detailed article about the close and long-lasting family and working relationships binding-together the Financial War Cabinet of the Trump Admin. This is presented as anti-democratic, which it is, but that ship sailed long ago. Jimmy Carter's study group declared the US to be an established Oligarchy in July 2015. The zionist-coherence, internal trust and proven talent of this group enable the USrael to engage in the monetary and financial operations of World War.   
​  The Family Business​ - Donald Trump didn't just pick a Fed chair. He picked his donor's son-in-law, his hedge fund patron's protégé, and a man whose fortune depends on the people he'll now regulate.
 ​  What has been built is a closed economic system in which the institutions that set policy, the people who run those institutions, the donors who fund the political party that placed them there, and the family that bridges all of the above hold overlapping financial interests in the same set of foreign and domestic outcomes. The system does not require any of its participants to act corruptly. It requires them only to act in their own clear, documented, mutually reinforcing interests.
​  The Federal Reserve was designed to be the one part of the United States government that no president could pressure, no donor could buy, and no dynasty could inherit. As of today, the president nominated his college friend’s son-in-law. The donor manages a hundred and forty-eight million dollars of the new chair’s personal wealth. And the dynasty, by marriage, now extends through the chairman’s office of the central bank of the United States of America.​   
https://ddgeopolitics.substack.com/p/the-family-business

​  Mary sent this article detailing the fissure within global financial and power-elite factions after the failure of the WEF "great reset" program, catalyzed by COVID mandates, lockdowns and digital-ID requirements.
​  The Quadpolar World Order at the Beijing Summit
It has become apparent in the wake of the rupture of the rules-based order that another world order has emerged...
..This is not a war between nations. It is a war within capitalism — between four competing visions of what capitalism should look like, who should run it, and on what terms the rest of us should live under it. The architects of this system are transnational in their operations but national in their bases of power. They are born somewhere, headquartered somewhere, and increasingly dependent on the state apparatus of somewhere to enforce their will. Geography and the nation state are still relevant — because when push comes to shove, each faction retreats into its territory: Davos, Washington, Silicon Valley and Beijing...
..This quadpolar world is not defined, however, by traditional geographic borders, but by competing models of political economy (i.e., capitalism), technology control, and state sovereignty​). Each pole wields a distinct weapon to enforce its will globally.
..Each faction has the power to block each other. They can veto each other's projects, sabotage each other's institutions, sanction each other's allies, and block each other's standards. What none of them can do is construct a new global architecture that the others are forced to operate inside. The dollar order worked because the United States could compel the rest of the world to use it.​..
​..Every claim to universality gets met with three competing claims to universality. The result is not a new order. The result is a fragmented infrastructure of half-built systems, none of which can become the standard because the others won't allow it.​..
..This new arrangement didn’t exist five years ago. In 2019 the world order was Davos plus three challengers: a transnational capitalist class still nominally united around the Great Reset agenda, with state capitalism, techno-libertarianism, and right-wing populism as dissident movements. The pandemic was supposed to consolidate Davos’s hegemony​...
..The Great Reset project failed because populism exploded under the pressure of international health mandates that crushed the working class. Amazon and Walmart stayed open and Mom and Pop had to shut down the restaurant. The largest wealth transfer in modern history drove the working class out into the streets — they threatened a MAGA revolt and then elected Trump as their political savior.
​  The 2020–2022 period is when the Imperial Nationalists discovered they had their own political base — angry, vocal, and motivated. The Techno-Sovereigns discovered they had their own ideology. The State Capitalists discovered they could survive sanctions. Each faction positioned itself in opposition to Davos’s attempt to consolidate its power base.​..
​..The quadpolar order is the four broken pieces of a Davos project that shattered.​..
​..The Iran war is the event that broke the previous balance of power. Before Iran, the four factions were in a slow drift. After Iran, the alignments hardened: the Davos faction retreated decisively into the middle-powers coalition; the Imperial Nationalists committed to bilateral dealmaking and abandoned what was left of the multilateral pretence; the Techno-Sovereign Silicon Valley discovered their supply chains ran through Hormuz; the State Capitalists discovered they were now indispensable to resolving the crisis their rivals had created.​..
​..The plane that landed in Beijing this week tells the whole story.
​  Donald Trump arrived as the Imperial Nationalist faction’s front man, the man dismantling the multilateral order in favour of bilateral leverage. Beside him: Larry Fink of BlackRock and Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone — the two most institutionally embedded figures in transnational finance, as well as David Solomon of Goldman Sachs and Jane Fraser of Citigroup. The CEOs of Mastercard and Visa. Tim Cook, whose Apple empire is manufactured inside the People’s Republic. Kelly Ortberg of Boeing, hoping to close a 500-aircraft order. Elon Musk, whose Shanghai gigafactory is Tesla’s largest plant, and who six months ago was tearing down the federal government on behalf of the Techno-Sovereign faction.
​  Three of the four factions of the Transnational Capitalist Class, flying together to negotiate with the fourth.​..
​..Fink runs the asset manager whose entire model — passive global allocation, ESG, stakeholder capitalism — the Imperial Nationalists have spent two years attacking. Cook needs the Chinese consumer market the tariff hawks want to decouple from. Musk needs the supply chains the Imperial Nationalists want to sever. Trump needs Xi’s cooperation on Iran, on rare earths, on the Strait of Hormuz — and Xi knows it.
  China needs semiconductors to survive.
​  Jensen Huang of Nvidia was initially absent from the announced list. Then Trump personally called him, overriding staff objections, and Huang boarded Air Force One during the Alaska refuelling stop. Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips (H100 and H200) have been restricted from Chinese buyers​...
​..The two presidents announced a “Strategic Stability Framework” and a new “Board of Trade.”
Translated: we have agreed to keep talking, and we have built a mechanism to manage our future inability to agree.​..
​..They jointly declared that the Strait of Hormuz “must remain open to ensure global trade flow,” but Iran was not at the summit. Iran has not agreed. What was announced was a sphere-of-influence statement — two superpowers agreeing that a third country’s war should now resolve in a way convenient to both of them.
​  The State Capitalist faction is being asked to deliver Iran, but Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref delivered a sharp message directly targeting the summit, declaring “Our right to the Strait of Hormuz is established, and the matter is closed.”​...
​..Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) explicitly exempted Chinese ships from the blockade, allowing the Chinese supertanker Yuan Hua Hu to pass through the strait completely toll-free.​..
..Washington cleared roughly ten Chinese firms to buy Nvidia’s second-most powerful chip. Not the H200. Not Blackwell B200. Second-tier silicon, carefully calibrated to let China’s AI sector continue functioning at a deliberately throttled level. Nvidia preserves market access.​..
​..Boeing got an aircraft order. But only 200 planes, not 500, causing Boeing stock (BA) to drop roughly 4% to 5%​...
​..Cargill and the agricultural delegation got nothing. Soybean prices plummeted this morning​...
​..The Davos financial faction came for market opening — broader access to Chinese capital markets, expanded asset management mandates, processing rights for Visa and Mastercard, the long-stalled liberalization that BlackRock and Blackstone have been pursuing for a decade.
​  So far, they got nothing.
​  And then, after a day of warm optics and ceremonial banquets, Xi took Trump into a two-hour meeting and warned him that Taiwan is “the most important issue” and that if it is mishandled, the two superpowers will “have clashes, or even conflicts.”​ 
​  Everything else this week is theatre.​..
​..What flew into Beijing this week was not a de-risking delegation.
It was the four factions of the new quadpolar world order ironically jammed into the Great Hall of the People.
​  None of them represents the People.​..
..And the war will not end, because the war is not something the participants want to end. It is the structure they exist inside. They cannot leave it without ceasing to be what they are.​   https://www.themargins.ca/p/the-quadpolar-world-order-at-the

​  Xi told Trump that missteps on Taiwan would put the US and China at war. Trump said nothing: Trump Talk, Taiwan, & 'Thucydides Trap' Threat Triggers Market Mayhem Overnight   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-talk-thucydides-trap-threat-triggers-market-mayhem-overnight

​  Trump backs ‘status quo’ on Taiwan – US envoy to United Nations​ - Mike Waltz said Washington maintains its policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding tensions with China over the island​   https://www.rt.com/news/640058-trump-taiwan-backs-status-quo/

​  Trade War, Tech War, Energy War: Xu Qinduo Breaks Down the Trump–Xi Negotiations
The future of global trade, the limits of U.S. containment strategy, and whether Washington and Beijing can escape the Thucydides Trap they now openly acknowledge. In a rare moment of candor, Xi warns Trump that Taiwan remains “the most important issue” and mishandling it could “jeopardize the entire China–U.S. relationship.”​   https://scheerpost.com/2026/05/14/trade-war-tech-war-energy-war-xu-qinduo-breaks-down-the-trump-xi-negotiations/

​  It's being discussed. Trump will export America's oil and gas somewhere. We'll get less: The Media Missed the Biggest Story from Trump’s China Summit: Making China Dependent on Texas Oil!   https://pjmedia.com/scott-pinsker/2026/05/15/the-media-missed-the-biggest-story-from-trumps-china-summit-making-china-dependent-on-texas-oil-n4952898

​  John Helmer,  WHO BELIEVES THE US EMPIRE IS TOPPLING LIKE THIS?
For Xi the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party to have proposed the formulation of the Thucydides Trap as the foundation for China and the US to accept peaceful coexistence (aka “constructive peaceful stability”) is exceptional.  The last senior Communist Party figure to have proclaimed as much was Mikhail Gorbachev. His overthrow followed in six years — planned, promoted and financed by successive US governments.​   https://johnhelmer.net/who-believes-the-us-empire-is-toppling-like-this/

​  Bessent's "Suffocating" Iranian Regime Strategy Materializes In Kharg Island Satellite Imagery
New geospatial intelligence indicates that Iran's main crude export terminal has gone quiet, while a separate report suggests seaborne oil exports have effectively been halted for the past month.
​  The first report comes from Bloomberg, which cited European satellite imagery showing a massive bottleneck developing at Iran's energy complex: no ocean-going tankers at Kharg Island, the country's main export terminal, on May 8, 9, and 11. This marks the longest stretch in no crude tanker loadings since the US-Iran conflict began nearly three months ago.​   
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/bessents-suffocating-iranian-regime-strategy-materializes-kharg-island-satellite-imagery

Iran Proclaims Safe, Toll-Free Passage For 30 Chinese Tankers Amid Xi-Trump Summit​  https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/iran-proclaims-safe-toll-free-passage-several-chinese-tankers-amid-xi-trump-summit 

​  "We can't confirm that because we'll never look": CENTCOM chief dismisses reports of civilian casualties in Iran war   
His comments came after a New York Times investigation documented damage to dozens of civilian sites, including schools and healthcare facilities, during the conflict.
  The report said at least 22 schools and 17 medical facilities were allegedly damaged or destroyed during the war, prompting renewed scrutiny of US targeting practices and civilian harm assessments.   
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605141455

"We won't let you rebuild those bases": No US weapons will transit Strait of Hormuz into regional bases, Iran’s Army warns   https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/13/768543/No-US-weapons-will-transit-Strait-Hormuz-into-regional-bases-Iran-Army

They signed something limited last year: Separate Peace? Saudi Arabia Floats Regional Non-Aggression Pact With Iran   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/separate-peace-track-saudi-arabia-floats-regional-non-aggression-pact-iran

If they ever line-up enough votes to pass it, it won't be allowed to the floor, right?  Senate Votes 49-50 against Iran War Powers Resolution   https://www.theamericanconservative.com/senate-votes-49-50-against-iran-war-powers-resolution/

Friday was Nakba Day. Millions of Palestinians mark 78 years since the Nakba
Nakba commemorations serve as remembrance and a call for justice, self-determination and the right to return.​   
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/5/15/millions-of-palestinians-mark-78-years-since-the-nakba

They Killed the Shepherd – Iraqi Man Who Reported Secret Israeli Base Found Dead​   https://www.palestinechronicle.com/they-killed-the-shepherd-iraqi-man-who-reported-secret-israeli-base-found-dead/

  ​Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-05-16
No faith in fiat-money:Global bond selloff intensifying across all major markets simultaneously. UK 30Y at 5.86% (highest since 1998), US 10Y at 4.59%, Japan 30Y above 4% for first time in history, France 10Y now higher than Portugal/Italy/Greece/Spain. VaR shock territory in UK Gilts.​..
​..Iran diplomacy dead — second US military operation imminent. Trump trashed Iran's proposal "after reading the first sentence". Operation Epic Fury declared concluded, next phase targeting Hormuz reopening. Multiple reports of US military buildup with B-2s, F-35s moving into position. Iran says fingers on buttons, Houthis on standby.​..
​..Silver flash-crashed ~15% in two days — from weekly highs near $89 to $75-76. Largest single-day move of the year. OPEX timing. However, Japan physical premium at +36.8% over COMEX and lease rates NOT falling with price — physical market remains tight.​..
..Jerome Powell's final day as Fed Chair. Kevin Warsh takes over — market pricing 60%+ chance next move is a rate HIKE. Rate cuts entirely priced out. "More concerned about stable prices than full employment"...
​..Trump-Xi Summit: Optics Over Substance​ - Trump left Beijing with "no major breakthroughs on trade or tangible help from Beijing to end the Iran war" per WSJ via zerohedge
​  200 Boeing jets ordered (analysts expected ~500); Boeing shares fell 4% per shanaka86
China declined to buy Nvidia H200 chips despite US approval — prefers domestic development per KobeissiLetter
​  Tariffs "not brought up", no commitment on Taiwan, no rare earth solution per KobeissiLetter
US delegation threw away ALL Chinese-provided items before boarding Air Force One, operated on burner phones only per visegrad24
​  Xi to visit US in September — first state visit in over a decade per Lord Bebo
China recognizes Iran's "exercise of sovereignty" over Hormuz, contradicting White House readout​...
​..Strait of Hormuz: Tactical Chess​ - Chinese supertanker Yuan Hua Hu with 2M barrels sailed through Hormuz — IRGC let it pass, CENTCOM didn't stop it per shanaka86
​  UAE doubling bypass pipeline capacity to 3M bpd by 2027 per Lord Bebo
UAE declared Hormuz weaponization "piracy" under UNSC 2817 per shanaka86
​  India-UAE sign petroleum + defence pacts, $5B investment, SPR expanded to 30M barrels per Lord Bebo
Brent crude up 8% on the week per Lord Bebo
​  Iran FM: "no trust in Americans", insists "no military solution" per zerohedge
Oil surplus cushion "dwindling at record pace" — acute shortages within weeks if Hormuz stays shut​...
​..Energy Supply Emergency​ - European diesel reserves "in freefall — nothing left in a few weeks" per philippilk
Art Berman: Hormuz loss = 11-12M bpd offline, rate of loss 100x greater than 1979 shock. July will be brutal...
​..Equity Market Euphoria Cracking​ - S&P 500 worst day since March; Nasdaq 100 worst since March 26 per Hedgeye, KobeissiLetter
Hindenburg Omen triggered on BOTH Nasdaq and NYSE simultaneously per Barchart
​  KOSPI crashed 8.4% intraday after hitting new ATH of 8,000 — wiped $370B in 6 hours​   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-16

​  Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-05-15
Japan bond market in full meltdown. 10Y yield hit 2.7% (highest this century), 20Y at 3.605% (highest since 1996), 30Y above 3.9% (first time in history)​...
​..US Treasury market cracking. 10Y above 4.50% for first time since June 2025. 30Y bonds auctioned above 5% - first since pre-GFC 2007. Rate HIKES now the base case for the Fed's next move - odds of a cut before July 2027 at just 1%. Kevin Warsh named new Fed Chair.​..
SPR collapsing at record pace. Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped -8.6M barrels last week, the largest weekly drawdown on record, 7th consecutive weekly decline. Nearly half the crude released is being exported..​.
​..Iran-Hormuz escalation cluster. Indian-flagged ship sunk in Omani waters. Iranian commandos seized Honduras-flagged vessel off UAE. UAE declared Hormuz weaponization "piracy" under UNSC 2817. Iran allowed 30 ships to pass the Strait - each after paying $2M..​.
​..Russia launches largest aerial attack of the war. 1,500+ drones and 64 missiles over 48 hours, with 1,428 drones in a single day — the highest ever. Interception rate plummeted to under 30% as Western air defense stockpiles are diverted to the Middle East.​..
​..Trump-Xi Beijing Summit: pageantry, no breakthroughs​ - Trump arrived with the largest CEO delegation ever assembled on a diplomatic mission: Musk, Cook, Huang, Fink, Solomon, Schwarzman, Ortberg, Fraser, and others. All carried burner phones.​..
​..Xi issued the sharpest Taiwan warning in decades
: mishandling could lead to "collision or even clashes", independence and peace are "irreconcilable as fire and water". Trump was asked five times about Taiwan and said nothing
​  Trump says Xi offered to help on Iran,
pledged no military equipment to Iran, wants Hormuz open. The Chinese readout omitted Iran specifics entirely, mentioning only "Middle East situation"...
​..China confirmed it will continue buying Iranian oil. Iran allowed Chinese ships to transit Hormuz specifically, neutralizing US pressure on Beijing​...
​..Oil supply crisis deepening​ - Russian Urals oil soared to $94.87/barrel, highest since Oct 2023, up 18% vs April. Russian tax revenues in rubles up 60% YoY
​  Hormuz transits collapsed from 100+/day to fewer than 15 per Kpler/Lloyd's
Chinese tankers running the blockade — will the US dare stop them?
​  Japan secured safe passage for two tankers through direct talks with Iran
UAE accelerating West-East pipeline to double export capacity through Fujairah by 2027​...
​...Stock market euphoria reaches historic extremes​ - S&P 500 hit 7,500 for the first time, up +19% since March 30 bottom — +$11 trillion in 7 weeks. Dow above 50,000
​  Breadth is atrocious: Mag 7 contributed +47.34pts Mon-Wed
while remaining 495 stocks subtracted 2pts net (UBS)
Shiller PE within 5% of Dot Com peak. Nasdaq "dirty Sharpe" ratio at highest ever. Semiconductors most overbought since Dot Com​.   
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-15

​  Israel to sue New York Times over article describing its rape of Palestinians
Earlier, the US paper doubled down on report highlighting testimonies of Palestinians raped in Israeli detention​   
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-sue-new-york-times-article-describing-its-rape-palestinians

​They test munitions on them. US colleges sold donated bodies for Israeli military training: Report   https://www.dailysabah.com/world/americas/us-colleges-sold-donated-bodies-for-israeli-military-training-report

  Jerusalem Post, NYT doubles down in support of controversial op-ed claiming abuse of Palestinians in Israel
The New York Times said Nicholas Kristof’s opinion piece was extensively fact-checked and based on corroborated accounts.​   https://www.jpost.com/international/article-896131

​  They supplied immediate-targeting data for "Where's Daddy" program to assassinate men when they got home to their families.  Leaked Documents Show Cisco Systems’ Deep Relationship with Israeli Security State
​  “Never Let a Good Crisis Go To Waste”: Internal documents show Cisco’s growing collaboration with the Israeli military over the course of the genocide in Gaza.​   https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/cisco-systems-israel-genocide-gaza

​Again, read "immediate-targeting data":  Microsoft fires head of Israeli subsidiary and other managers over surveillance of Palestinians   https://israelpalestinenews.org/microsoft-fires-head-of-israeli-subsidiary-and-other-managers-over-surveillance-of-palestinians/

​  Netanyahu's Government on the Brink as Coalition Moves to Dissolve Israeli Parliament - The proposal could trigger a parliamentary vote as early as next week​   https://www.latintimes.com/netanyahus-government-brink-coalition-moves-dissolve-israeli-parliament-597364

Sharp rise in solitary confinement of Palestinian child prisoners inside Israeli jails​   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/05/14/363116/

​  No more pictures of Ben-Gvir in crowds, just pics that could be AI, like Netanyahu: Israeli MP calls for Al-Aqsa’s destruction to build Jewish temple during mass raid
​  Ministers and lawmakers lead large settler incursions into the Jerusalem site ahead of the provocative Flag March, as Israeli forces restrict Palestinians access​   https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-closes-al-aqsa-muslims-amid-mass-settler-raids-and-flag-march

​  Israeli ultranationalists chant racist slogans during Jerusalem Day march
Annual Jerusalem Day march fuels tensions with shouted slogans and fears of violence against Palestinian residents.​   
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/5/14/israeli-ultranationalists-chant-racist-slogans-during-jerusalem-day-march

Thousands of settlers take part in provocative Israeli flag march in Old Jerusalem​   https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/05/15/363136/

Israel Executes Palestinian Boy amid Settler Rampage near Ramallah​   https://www.palestinechronicle.com/israel-executes-palestinian-boy-amid-settler-rampage-near-ramallah/

​  Israel Attacks Lebanon’s Main Coastal Highway, Killing 12 Including Two Children- Aid group faults repeated ceasefire violations, calls for refugees to be allowed to return home​   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/05/13/israel-attacks-lebanons-main-coastal-highway-killing-12-including-two-children/

​  Lebanon's health ministry said 22 people including eight children were killed on Wednesday as Israel intensified strikes on the country, with several deadly raids hitting south of Beirut.
​  The state-run National News Agency (NNA) said Israeli airstrikes had pounded around 40 locations in Lebanon's south and east.
​  The fresh raids came on the eve of a new round of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel in Washington brokered by the United States, as Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah remains strongly opposed to the move.​   
https://www.spacewar.com/afp/260513213003.tunsln8c.html

Lebanon says over 10,000 homes destroyed or damaged since Israel truce​   https://www.arabnews.com/node/2643470/middle-east

‘Heavy Losses’: Hezbollah Drone Swarms Overwhelm Israeli Military Positions​   https://www.palestinechronicle.com/heavy-losses-hezbollah-drone-swarms-overwhelm-israeli-military-positions/

​Simplicius, Russia Rocks Ukraine With Unprecedented 1,500+ Drones in One of Largest Aerial Attacks Ever   https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russia-rocks-ukraine-with-unprecedented

Ukrainian STING Drone Crews Destroy Over 300 Russian Aerial Targets During Record 36-Hour Assault​   https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Ukrainian-STING-Drone-Crews-Destroy-Over-300-Russian-Aerial-Targets-During-Record-36-Hour-Assault/

Russian Geran missiles are becoming too difficult targets for Ukrainian air defense systems.​   https://en.topwar.ru/282727-rossijskie-gerani-stanovjatsja-slishkom-slozhnymi-celjami-dlja-ukrainskoj-pvo.html

  Russia tracks these high-value targets: Zelensky Claims Leaked Russian Intel Docs Show Russia Preparing to Take Out "Decision-Making Centers" of Ukraine   https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zelensky-claims-leaked-russian-intel

​  NATO chief wants to triple money flows to corruption-plagued Ukraine –Mark Rutte has reportedly asked allies to devote 0.25% of their GDP to supporting Kiev​   https://web.archive.org/web/20260514040020/https://www.rt.com/news/639968-nato-more-cash-for-ukraine/

Ukrainian drone attack leaves two Zaporozhye NPP employees injured​ - Multiple attacks by Ukraine hindered the evacuation of the two employees​   https://tass.com/politics/2131017

It's not a "loan"​, is i​t? IMF plans to provide Kiev with approximately $3.8 billion in 2026​- The 4-year $8.1 billion program was approved in February​   https://tass.com/world/2131043

​  Von der Leyen’s power grab angers EU officials – The European Commission chief is “obsessed” with proving she’s in charge, diplomats and officials have complained​   https://www.rt.com/news/639901-von-der-leyen-power/

​Another "free money" idea: US Wants To Restore Nord Stream & Purchase From Europeans At Steep Discount: Lavrov   https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-wants-restore-nord-stream-pipeline-purchase-europeans-steep-discount-lavrov

Different from removing 5000 troops from Germany: Pentagon 'Blindsided' As Hegseth Pulls Plug On 4,000-Troop Deployment To Poland   https://www.zerohedge.com/military/pentagon-blindsided-hegseth-pulls-plug-4000-troop-deployment-poland

  Nobody remembers the Spanish Civil War now, I guess: Spain wants an EU army: What would it mean?
Madrid has joined a chorus in Europe calling for a standalone force amid the growing rift with the US​   https://web.archive.org/web/20260514104026/https://www.rt.com/news/639939-spain-wants-eu-army-explainer/

Cuba is without power as the US blocks oil tankers heading to the island.​   https://en.topwar.ru/282718-kuba-ostalas-bez-sveta-ssha-blokirujut-iduschie-na-ostrov-tankery-s-neftju.html

​  CIA Director John Ratcliffe Travels to Cuba Amid Hemispheric Security Push
In a remarkable development, CIA Director John Ratcliffe travelled to Cuba on Thursday to meet with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro the grandson of former Cuban President Raúl Castro.  Also present at the meeting was Cuban Interior Minister Lazaro Alvarez Casas and the head of Cuba’s intelligence services.
​  In late April of this year, a few State Department officials visited Havana and held talks with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro about a potential diplomatic deal.​..
​..“CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana, Cuba, on Thursday for a rare meeting with senior Cuban officials, an agency official told CBS News, using the visit to deliver a message that the U.S. was prepared to expand economic and security engagement with Cuba if Havana “makes fundamental changes.”
​  The meeting came as Cuba is contending with a massive power failure to its national energy grid amid U.S. sanctions that have caused an oil and gas shortage crisis to the island nation.
​  Ratcliffe told Cuban leaders the administration was offering “a genuine opportunity for collaboration” and a chance to stabilize Cuba’s struggling economy, while cautioning that the opportunity would not remain open indefinitely and the administration would enforce “red lines” if necessary, the official said.​   
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/05/14/cia-director-john-ratcliffe-travels-to-cuba-amid-hemispheric-security-push/#more-283418

​Or... CIA Head Ratcliffe Spotted In Cuba As Trump Refocuses Crosshairs On Havana Communists   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cia-head-ratcliffe-spotted-cuba-trump-refocuses-crosshairs-havana-communists

US Military Surveillance Flights Surging Off Cuba​ - The Pentagon has reportedly been ramping up its planning for an attack on the island nation​   https://news.antiwar.com/2026/05/13/us-military-surveillance-flights-surging-off-cuba/

​  CIA Whistleblower: Covid Origin Covered-up by Senior CIA and DNI Managers and Dr. Fauci
James Erdmann III testifies before the Senate that senior CIA and DNI managers concealed lab origin of SARS-CoV-2 under the direction of Anthony Fauci. Ralph Baric resigns
​  CIA veteran James Erdmann III testified under oath before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee in a hearing titled “Whistleblower Testimony on the COVID Coverup.”
​  Summoned as a whistleblower, Erdmann detailed what he described as systemic suppression of evidence pointing to a laboratory origin of SARS-CoV-2. He explained to the committee—chaired by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)—that CIA scientific analysts had, as early as 2020, strongly favored a lab-incident scenario in Wuhan (one account cited an internal 5-to-1 vote). And yet, senior CIA and DNI managers repeatedly softened, rewrote, or sidelined those assessments, ultimately issuing a “non-call” or inconclusive judgment.
Most notably, he claimed that Dr. Anthony Fauci played an “intentional” role in influencing the intelligence community’s analysis...
​..Erdmann was previously known for contesting federal COVID-19 vaccine mandates and for co-founding the advocacy group Feds For Freedom to support federal employees and service members seeking religious exemptions. Until today, his position at the CIA since 2013 was not known to the public.
As it turns out, he is a decorated senior CIA operations officer with over a decade of service in the agency and decades of national-security experience. A military veteran who served as a non-commissioned officer in the U.S. Army’s 2nd Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment and later in the National Guard, he also worked in the private sector as a senior bioinformatics and biometrics consultant before joining the CIA in 2013.​   
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/cia-whistleblower-covid-origin-covered

​Study Finds that Mites can be Vectors for Hantavirus and can also Serve as Long Term Viral Reservoirs   https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-finds-that-mites-can-be-vectors-for-hantaviruses-from-rodents-and-can-also-serve-as-long-term-viral-reservoirs

  Peter McCullough MD explains that current tests alone are not reliable for Hantavirus. The Illusion of Precision: Molecular Diagnostics for Hantavirus
An examination of unstandardized testing, contamination risks, and the fragility of clinical reliance on blood PCR assays for "test positive" reporting​   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/the-illusion-of-precision-molecular

  ​Times of Israel, Israeli tech company aiming to cool the Earth with masses of tiny particles
Stardust Solutions wants to combat global warming by releasing millions of tons of particles to reflect small amounts of sunlight, NYT reports, but critics warn of dangers in playing with weather
​  An Israeli tech company has revealed the content of tiny particles it hopes will one day be used to combat global warming by scattering millions of tons of them into the atmosphere to reflect away sunlight.​..  As it turns out, they are made from amorphous silica, which is a food additive, and calcium carbonate, which is in eggshells and limestone.​   https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-tech-company-aiming-to-cool-the-earth-with-masses-of-tiny-particles-report/

​Weather Recipient (pictured meditating in mushroom-circle that Jenny spotted)