Planespotters,
On Wednesday August 28, CIA Director John Ratcliffe Flew into Moscow in a huge C-17 Globemaster transport plane, when he had access to much smaller and nicer government jet aircraft. There is speculation that the transport plane was chosen because he was picking up bodies of US and NATO allied service-members killed in the line of secret duty in Ukraine, and retrieved by Russia. NATO service-member deaths in Ukraine are a known general problem, but specifics remain secret.
President Trump said that routine business was done and "some good may come of it", but refused to give other details. He is at his lowest approval rating ever for his war against Iran. He really needs some good news for the next few months before midterm elections, November 3..
Vladimir Putin has come under the most criticism ever in his career over the past year, especially this year, for the interminable war draining Russian blood and money without victory. His party stands to lose a lot of seats in the Duma and local governmental offices on Sunday September 20, when Russian elections are held. President Putin is not up for re-election, himself.
The rational thing for Trump's people and Putin's people to do is to arrange some battlefield successes for Russia, or at least agree not to interfere, and some secret deal with Iran, using Russia as a trustworthy intermediary, while Pakistan keeps doing shuttle-diplomacy.
What might a massive C-17 Globemaster have been carrying that Iran wants and would accept as a sign of goodwill? The main thing that comes to my mind is pallets of cash that the CIA and DoD used to fly into Afghanistan and Iraq regularly to do everyday business. https://www.pbs.
Supposedly 640,000 $100 bills was a standard pallet load into Iraq in the early years of GWOT occupation. That's $64 million per pallet. Iran has $100 to $120 billion in confiscated funds held by western interests globally. $2 billion is held by US institutions. That would be 31 and 1/4 of those pallets, a little over 22 tons of Ben Franklins. The C-17 Globemaster can carry 77.5 tons.
What if CIA Director Ratcliffe carried 22 tons of $100 bills to Moscow, to be forwarded to Iran as a sign of sincerity in negotiations? (The US also holds $5 billion of sanctioned Russian State assets. 77 tons is a full Globemaster payload.)
The Honest Sorcerer, The Great Discontinuity Has Arrived - Why everything is breaking down and why all at once
We live in a supermassive complex system, often referred to as modern industrial civilization, or the world economy in short. This monster of an organism has a life of its own with its own inputs (natural resources) and outputs (products and pollution)—just like any living being or physical process in the Universe. Humans are, of course, an integral part of this system: driving the extraction of minerals and consuming the food, plus the gazillion of products and energy, made available in the process.And this is where economic models, focusing solely on “utility” and prices—pure figments of human imagination—diverge from reality. This narrow minded world view has produced a number of unrealistic assumptions on which our entire modern civilization was built, and all of which are being tested to destruction... The map, which we confused with the territory for so long, is being ripped asunder as the current world order and the technological hubris it produced crumbles under its own weight. The ideas which we built this civilization on have become rifts and tears in the fabric of the map economists and politicians used to guide us...
..We live in a world where the growth of “supply” is not only increasingly restricted by the depletion of rich mineral deposits, aquifers, ecosystems etc. but world powers actively destroying each others assets: oil wells, refineries, transport vessels and shipping routes... Copper and silver supply was already restricted by geological limits; well before the war on Iran had started. Diesel fuel—powering mining, agriculture, transportation and construction—was already restricted due to limited access to medium heavy conventional crude oil; again, well before hostilities around Hormuz began. What’s worse, according to the IEA, around 80% of global oil and 90% of natural gas production came from fields that had passed their peak (including unconventional fields) in 2024, with the depletion of old fields accelerating over time...
..The idea that money can be loaned into existence (as opposed to be lent out from existing savings) was key behind the exponential growth we saw during the past centuries. The result, beyond pent up demand for just about anything from housing to stocks or from cars to gadgets bought on credit, was a similar growth in both private and government debt... Companies increasingly bought raw materials on credit, which they then used to build products often sold on credit. And while the material economy was able to grow the can of forever increasing debt could be kicked down the road—but with growth in both real material output and credit uptake coming to an end, the theory of a debt based currency system will be also tested to destruction...
..With the financial and military dominance of the West coming to an end, not to mention global economic growth in general, all previously democratic nations have started to behave like their authoritarian counterparts. No wonder: they’re running a race against the clock to install as many surveillance cameras, software backdoors and data centers as possible to store and analyze all citizen’s personal data before the AI-bubble pops and the financial system breaks down… Causing the last remains of the social contract to go up in smoke. With this mass surveillance, combined with a rapid development of autonomous weapon systems, robots and drone swarms capable to outrun (and soon outsmart) any human, the possibility of stifling a revolution even before its idea is born has now become a technical reality.....The idea that money can be loaned into existence (as opposed to be lent out from existing savings) was key behind the exponential growth we saw during the past centuries. The result, beyond pent up demand for just about anything from housing to stocks or from cars to gadgets bought on credit, was a similar growth in both private and government debt... Companies increasingly bought raw materials on credit, which they then used to build products often sold on credit. And while the material economy was able to grow the can of forever increasing debt could be kicked down the road—but with growth in both real material output and credit uptake coming to an end, the theory of a debt based currency system will be also tested to destruction...
..While far from perfect, and never intended to serve as a forecasting tool, the (Systems Dynamics) methodology first published in 1972 under the title Limits to Growth, proved to be far more resilient than any other economic theory out there. Without going too much into the details, the authors were tracking the many interconnections between five key factors: non-renewable natural resources, persistent pollution, population, food production, industrial output. None of the scenarios produced by tweaking the variables in the model forecast infinite economic growth on a finite planet...
..Now, that multiple follow-ups to the original study (all published in peer-reviewed scientific journals) proved the original concept to be correct, and confirmed that we are indeed following the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario set out in the World3 model, there is little left to be done. The latest iteration of these follow up studies, titled Recalibration23, published in November 2023, lays it all out...
..The authors, however, found it important to note that the connections in the model are only valid for the rising edge of the curve, as many of the variables and equations in the model are not physical but socioeconomic. Therefore, they assess: “It is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.” .....The authors (rightfully) expect that the complex web of socioeconomic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. And this is what we are witnessing in real time—both in world and domestic politics—a massive rearrangement in the face of an imminent collapse of the financial/industrial system predicated on infinite growth on a very much finite planet...
..The Great Discontinuity has just began, though. It will take years, if not decades to fully unfold. We are looking into a period of great uncertainty and economic turmoil interspersed with periods of respite and relative calm. Governments all around the world will turn desperate to keep things together, even as their funding dries up and their control over the events will turn out to be an illusion. https://thehonestsorcerer. Iran says it's trade can't be blocked unless all trade is blocked: Ghalibaf declares Persian Gulf oil flows for ‘all or none’
The top Iranian official added that the region's security hinges on the withdrawal of US forces https://thecradle.co/articles/ghalibaf-declares-persian-gulf-oil-flows-for-all-or-noneIran had ‘broken the maritime blockade’ during ceasefire, exported between 70-80M barrels of oil, says Supreme National Security Council secretary https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-threatens-us-economic-interests-if-maritime-blockade-continues/4039688
Simplicius may be speaking a bit prematurely. This isn't over yet: The True Extent of Fallout From US’s Defeat in Iran Is Still Being Processed https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-true-extent-of-fallout-from-uss
Moon of Alabama, Funny Media Speculations About CIA Ratcliffe’s Russia Visit
Sundance, Aug 26 2026 - Western media are reporting that CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow, Russia, to warn his Russian counterpart Sergey Naryshkin, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), about striking back against Baltic states. However, that’s only half of the story. Director Ratcliffe wasn’t simply telling Naryshkin not to hit back; he was telling Naryshkin that European NATO provocations against the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad (between Poland and Lithuania) were not ‘fully’ sanctioned by the United States.
Apparently, European NATO is increasingly trying to provoke expanded conflict with Russia, while President Trump and CIA Director John Ratcliffe attempt to tamp down the problems being created.
That is a wild theory, with no evidence, but it is at least interesting. If true though it would mean that the U.S. would not mind for Russia to hammer the NATO Europeans without itself hitting back. I doubt that it would be a sustainable position.
My own speculation is that Ratcliffe’s trip was nearly solely about the Iran situation.
The U.S. has likely asked Russia to not support Iran, while -in return- offering some empty concessions on Ukraine. As the current U.S. administration has proven itself to be not-agreement-capable any such deal is likely to see a Russian rejection...
..Comments: Steve Jermy told Judge Nap that he thinks Ratcliffe took a cargo plane to pick up American KIAs. Sounds plausible to me. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/08/funny-media-speculations-about-cia-ratcliffes-russia-visit.html
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-30
Meanwhile Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole turn got repriced into a real September hike (57% odds, Deutsche Bank calling Sept and Dec), metals took the slam, and a Russian jet-drone hit an ammunition depot inside a residential area near Kyiv - casualty counts diverge sharply between sources. Everything else is continuation with specific advances: Sumy villages falling, day 50 of the Odesa port campaign, diesel still the tightest corner of the barrel...
..Sovereignty objection, from a Venezuelan voice: an illegitimate regime has no mandate to bargain away the resource, and the US no right to claim it (HectorMujicaFL..).....The contrarian construction worth reading twice: Warsh needs a downturn he cannot openly create, and sticky oil either forces a hike the long end can't survive, or breaks demand and hands him the recession that permits cuts - making Tehran the ally he can't name (Mark4XX). Confidence: LOW, single-source thesis, but the mechanism is coherent...
..Hormuz at six months: Gulf export volumes reported at 6.5, 8-10, and 15-16 mb/d.....Vortexa's chief economist, relayed by Mark4XX, puts the more meaningful 28-day average near 6.5 mb/d of total oil, against White House citations of 8-10 mb/d on short moving averages. One day printed 15 million; that isn't a trend. A VLCC shuttle system now loads inside the Gulf, goes dark, and transfers outside the strait, mostly at night, with confirmation lagging three to four days. These three figures are not reconcilable - treat the spread as the story.
Who's actually shipping: Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have raised loadings and are taking the risk; Saudi Arabia is shipping at very low levels; Iranian exports are essentially zero. Risk tolerance, not geology, decides who exports (Mark4XX)...
..Damage assessment: South Pars restored to 40% capacity, with full repair estimated at at least two years per Deputy Oil Minister Zeraatkar... Who's actually shipping: Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have raised loadings and are taking the risk; Saudi Arabia is shipping at very low levels; Iranian exports are essentially zero. Risk tolerance, not geology, decides who exports (Mark4XX)...
..Escalation of the financial front: first secondary sanctions applied - an Egyptian bank blocked from dollar access over "Iran ties" (zerohedge) - and Washington is looking to revive "prize courts" for Iranian oil seizures (zerohedge).
The six-month scorecard from Aaron David Miller: "none of the objectives the president outlined has yet been fulfilled"; Iran escalated horizontally using geography rather than matching firepower, and survived with much of its missile and drone capacity intact (DanielLDavis1)...
..Diplomacy dead for now: Russia rejected the CIA/Vatican peace plan as another Minsk-style time-buy (GeromanAT), and air raids increased after the Moscow visit (GeromanAT). simpatico771 claims to reveal the visit's true motives... The six-month scorecard from Aaron David Miller: "none of the objectives the president outlined has yet been fulfilled"; Iran escalated horizontally using geography rather than matching firepower, and survived with much of its missile and drone capacity intact (DanielLDavis1)...
..Agriculture: wheat at a 3-year high, 11-session ag streak, rice +61% ... The next-leg call: fertilizers as the hottest commodity theme into 2027 (RockBtmEntries) https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-30
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-29
Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote landed hawkish and repriced everything - September hike odds went from a third to better than half, gold lost $150 and the 200-day, and the 2Y jumped 10bps.
Second delta: Trump announced US majority control over 65bn barrels of Venezuelan reserves while Caracas openly weighs leaving OPEC. Continuation, but with real advances: Kyiv is into a third day of near-continuous strikes with Ukraine's retail food logistics ~90% destroyed and rationing starting, and Iran fired a ballistic missile at shipping in Hormuz hours after CENTCOM declared the lane clear of mines. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-29
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-28
Nvidia's blowout print bought exactly one session of euphoria before the WSJ reported it has paused the revenue-sharing deals that underpin the circular-financing structure - the stock added ~$500bn while the plumbing behind it quietly got pulled. ....Nvidia pauses AI-cloud revenue-sharing one day after the print - WSJ reports Nvidia stepped back from the revenue-sharing programme last week, per zerohedge, framed as putting the "circular financing house of cards in jeopardy" (zerohedge). Separately: what are rising GPU rental prices worth if Nvidia is renting its own unused GPUs back from its customers ? (zerohedge)...
Elsewhere the tape is grim rather than new: AP puts US Patriot stocks in Europe at "beyond critical" after ~1,500 of 2,330 interceptors were burned in the Iran war, Kyiv logged 13 air-raid alarms in a single day, and Iran says it will write the terms for reopening Hormuz.
Japan's 2-year auction produced the weakest demand measure since 2016 and the Bund hit a 15-year high - the sovereign side is loosening while equity indices print records. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-28
Everybody we shot was a "terrorist", same as in Vietnam: Inside the Israeli military policy to ‘justify’ lethal actions in deadly attacks on civilians in Gaza https://israelpalestinenews.org/inside-the-israeli-military-policy-to-justify-lethal-actions-in-deadly-attacks-on-civilians-in-gaza/
Israel’s restrictions on medical supplies and equipment are still making health care in Gaza all but impossible. https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/gaza-hospitals-medical-equipment-supplies-israeli-blockade
Why do the mass-murderers get to decide, again? After Spain, Netherlands, Israel Weighs Expelling UK from Gaza Center – FT
Similar measures have reportedly been considered against Italy and Germany, following the earlier removal of Spanish and Dutch representatives.
A British source told the FT that some form of Israeli “payback” was logical to expect following Britain’s increasingly critical stance. https://www.palestinechronicle.com/after-spain-netherlands-israel-weighs-expelling-uk-from-gaza-center-ft/
The removal-from-land part of "Genocide": Israeli annexation push threatens regional peace, Palestine tells UN
Riyad Mansour tells the UN Security Council that the E1 settlement plan constitutes an act of war and sabotages US diplomatic efforts. https://www.trtworld.com/article/7de51e39a83f
Riyad Mansour tells the UN Security Council that the E1 settlement plan constitutes an act of war and sabotages US diplomatic efforts. https://www.trtworld.com/article/7de51e39a83f
WAFA correspondent reported that Israeli forces raided Al-Karmel, deployed across its streets, and stormed several Palestinian homes, turning them into military outposts. The soldiers then opened live fire at a vehicle carrying several women, wounding two women, aged 58 and 30, and a 14-year-old girl in the face and head. https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/174133?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The planned route will cut off another 380 dunums situated between it and Psagot’s existing perimeter, according to field data.
The construction of this route will bar Palestinian owners from accessing their plots of land, placing the terrain under the de facto security control of the Psagot settlement. https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/27/369024/
The construction of this route will bar Palestinian owners from accessing their plots of land, placing the terrain under the de facto security control of the Psagot settlement. https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/27/369024/
Imprisoned for living at home in Palestine: Behind Israeli bars: Detention without charge, abuses against women and children, and denied rights https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/27/369056/
Lebanon’s National Council for Scientific Research (NCSR) has issued a report that some 160 km² of land in southern Lebanon have been systematically burned by Israeli activity since 2023. This includes large amounts of farmland, but what is being called a “scorched earth” policy is increasingly including forests... Forests and olive groves are torched, while Israel is spraying pesticide on the farmland at levels which greatly exceed normal usage, leading Lebanon to accuse Israel of using herbicide as a weapon of war...
..The NCSR estimates tens of billions of dollars in damage have been done to Lebanese land as a result of Israeli military operations, and those operations are far from over, with several new attacks reported daily across the south, and the damage being so widespread and spanning so many areas that it’s not even possibly to reliably estimate the full toll.
“Those whose land they didn’t burn, they’ve bulldozed,” noted one villager from near Shaqra, an area actively under Israeli occupation for months, where demolition activity is still regularly ongoing. Many villages in the farthest south, particularly predominantly Shi’ite villages, are effectively totally gone at this point, and displaced residents face an uncertain future.
The Christian towns are somewhat different. Though Israel has attacked those towns intermittently throughout the war, they’re being careful to not destroy them outright. That’s both a blessing and a curse for residents of those towns, however, as they report Israel continues to have their towns totally surrounded and is severely limiting the ability of locals to leave without permission. https://news.antiwar.com/2026/08/26/lebanon-accuses-israel-of-scorched-earth-policy-as-southern-forests-are-burned/
“Those whose land they didn’t burn, they’ve bulldozed,” noted one villager from near Shaqra, an area actively under Israeli occupation for months, where demolition activity is still regularly ongoing. Many villages in the farthest south, particularly predominantly Shi’ite villages, are effectively totally gone at this point, and displaced residents face an uncertain future.
The Christian towns are somewhat different. Though Israel has attacked those towns intermittently throughout the war, they’re being careful to not destroy them outright. That’s both a blessing and a curse for residents of those towns, however, as they report Israel continues to have their towns totally surrounded and is severely limiting the ability of locals to leave without permission. https://news.antiwar.com/2026/08/26/lebanon-accuses-israel-of-scorched-earth-policy-as-southern-forests-are-burned/
..The strike killed Saja Mousa Sharara, 28, who had moved into the house just 48 hours earlier after her wedding. The attack completely destroyed the house and caused extensive damage to surrounding homes and commercial establishments, spreading fear and panic among residents. https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/174151?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Israel's use of so-called "shepherding outposts" to seize Palestinian land through settler herders is now being exported to Syria, as an Israeli settler, supported by the state, occupies Syrian pastureland in Wadi Toemm with a herd of 140 cattle. https://mondoweiss.net/2026/08/israel-is-exporting-its-west-bank-land-seizure-model-to-colonize-new-territory-in-syria-using-140-cattle-to-do-it/
Caitlin Johnstone, You're A Terrorist If You Resist Genocide Or Mass Surveillance, And Other Notes https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/youre-a-terrorist-if-you-resist-genocide
Agentic AIs escaped containment. Maybe start pulling out cash for your Christmas shopping now? OpenAI, Anthropic issue dire cyber threat warning
OpenAI, Anthropic, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and more than 100 other companies warned Thursday that the organizations now only have months to prepare for AI-enabled cyberattacks. Why it matters: Hospitals, water treatment plants and other critical infrastructure will face a swarm of hacking threats as AI makes sophisticated cyber capabilities cheaper and more accessible to attackers, the group write in an open letter.
Driving the news: "We have a limited window to strengthen cyber defenses," the letter says.
The group is calling for "collective action" and urges organizations to use their shrinking window to secure critical infrastructure and make it more expensive and difficult for hackers using AI tools to break in. https://www.axios.com/2026/08/27/openai-anthropic-issue-dire-cyber-threat-warning
Sugar-free babies live longer, healthier and smarter, like breast-fed babies: These Babies Grew Up With Strict Sugar Limits. Decades Later, The Results Are Dramatic.
Decades and entire lifetimes later, the long-tail effect of that enforced sugar reduction during World War II appears to have dramatically boosted the health of an entire generation of wartime babies. https://www.sciencealert.com/these-babies-grew-up-with-strict-sugar-limits-decades-later-the-results-are-dramatic
Celia Farber digs into a completely fabricated "emergency": Battleground Lancaster: The Measles Op Has Been Blown Up, Yet Is Still Flying: Who Are The “Reporters” Who Kicked It Off? Aubrey Whelan And Gillian McGoldrick Of Philadelphia Inquirer
Who Was Next? Discern The Pattern: War On The Amish, War On Exemptions. War On Christianity, Home Schooling, AND Home Births https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/battleground-lancaster-the-measlesAaron Siri, Yes, There Is DNA from Aborted Fetal Tissue in the Measles Vaccine, Billions of fragments, in fact https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/yes-there-is-dna-from-aborted-fetal
Celia Farber follows up: Hindenburg? Jamal Holley Was Told By DNC Insider That They Can’t Spin Or Fix Josh Shapiro’s Measles Debacle, And He Is In Day 3 Of Silence: “No Crisis Firm Fixes That.” - “The Private Line Inside The Party Is, Stay Away From Him.” https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/hindenburg-jamal-holley-was-told
Steve Kirsch as OBVIOUSMAN: Sudden-onset autism survey results show it’s the vaccines causing autism. No doubt about it.
According to the survey, 30% of sudden-onset autism cases are happening on the SAME day as vaccines are given, AFTER the shots are given, and never BEFORE the shot are given. So it’s not symmetrical. https://kirschsubstack.com/p/sudden-onset-autism-survey-results Steve Kirsch, Jmii paper adds to the evidence that the COVID vaccine opens up the blood-brain barrier (BBB) which can cause permanent neurological injury or death
This in vitro study showed the spike protein, from the SARS-CoV-2 virus or vaccine, can disrupt the BBB leading to headache, brain fog, permanent neurological damage, and death. https://kirschsubstack.com/p/jmii-paper-adds-to-the-evidence-that Get your Vitamin-D level up into the normal range. Run-away from the new mRNA "vaccine" products. Tamiflu helps very sick people die. Paul Marik MD,
Treat the Patient, Not Just the Virus: Rethinking Influenza After the Tamiflu Scandal - A Mutti-axis approach to the treatment of influenzae https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/treat-the-patient-not-just-the-virus But, but, but the similar Moderna product advanced to Stage-3: BioNTech mRNA Cancer “Vaccine” Trial TERMINATED Over Alarming Mortality Signal
The independent Data Safety Monitoring Board flagged an overall-survival imbalance ["killing some folks"] after cancer patients received an aggressive hyper-dosing regimen of up to 15 IV mRNA doses. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-biontech-mrna-cancer-vaccinePaul Marik MD, Getting a Second Opinion, Getting a Second Opinion: One of the Most Important Decisions After a Cancer Diagnosis https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/getting-a-second-opinion
"Caveat Emptor", Paul Marik MD, Choosing the right Guide
The most dangerous mistake patients make in treating their cancer is not a specific drug, diet, or supplement. It is choosing the wrong guide. Patients step outside conventional oncology because they are searching for something better—more rational, more humane, more effective. That instinct is understandable. But in doing so, many unknowingly walk into a landscape that is largely unregulated, scientifically inconsistent, and at times, frankly predatory.
The single biggest error I see is this: patients place their trust in practitioners who are not medically qualified, not scientifically grounded, and not acting in the patient’s best interest. https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/choosing-the-right-guide
Mother Nature's Son (inspecting second attempt at pumpernickel loaf as it comes out of the baking tin intact) 
