Desiring Actionable Intelligence,
Nate Hagens, 7 Ways Growth Ends
It helps to remember what GDP actually is. If we strip away the dollar markers, GDP is really a tally of energy and materials pulled through the economy plus the accompanying ecosystem drawdown that satisfies the wants of 8.3 billion people. Every dollar underpins a good or a service, and every good or service is energy that we apply to stuff. Technology does let us get a bit more value out of each unit of that stuff, but it has never let the economy grow while the physical throughput stayed flat anywhere on Earth.....Presented this way, it seems kind of obvious. But why do we culturally feel that the end of growth is so unlikely? There are lots of potential reasons, but basically I think we have confused what actually drives our progress with what merely looks like it drives our progress. Energy applied to materials inside ecosystems that are still functioning is what produces everything. Those are the ultimate drivers. Money is the proximate driver – the signal that society uses to pull the real stuff around and through. But because it’s what we see and what we control, we’ve come to treat it as the driver itself...
..Printing new money, or new claims against the degrading biophysical reality, lets us get a bit more of the more costly energy faster than we otherwise could. Since this has historically been easy and everything grew in tandem, nothing felt wrong. But that’s the delay of our system at work. Using our cultural credit card makes the system look much healthier than it is because it smooths over the limits, and in doing so it also postpones the biophysical feedback. The claims kept growing. The stuff underneath them didn’t, or it did, but only marginally. The delay between them has kept us from noticing there was any gap at all... ..For today, just remember that all financial debts are a claim on future energy and materials. We’ve written far more of those claims than the future is going to be able to honor, and we’re probably about to write many more...
..After the 2008 financial crisis, almost every bit of growth we measured was borrowed growth, government growth, or both. That’s because it’s taken more and more new debt to produce each extra dollar of GDP, and because deficits have become permanent rather than something we only run in bad economic times.....So as we head into 2027, it’s clear that the physical base under our economy is about as fragile as it ever has been, and we’re papering over the gap with more claims than ever before...
..1) Biophysical Musical Chairs
The financial music has played for so long that almost everyone assumes there will always be a chair for every financial promise. There will not be. Human history and the madness of crowds suggest there probably never was going to be. This musical chairs moment can happen and manifest in two very different ways, but most people usually only envision the first one: the hot version where we keep papering over the gap with more and more claims until the currency itself starts to erode. Then the reconciliation happens through inflation, and the money loses its value and its meaning. But it can also go the other way toward a debt deflation, where the claims are so numerous that they start to destroy themselves. Asset prices fall, and because the debts are fixed in dollar terms, they get heavier in real terms as everything around them drops. So people are forced to sell, pushing prices down further and forcing more selling.....So this financial overshoot gap can close in two ways, and of course it could also happen both ways. Inflation comes first, the government is powerless to stop it, and then the bond market pulls the rug and triggers the deflationary depression. We’re actually watching the bond markets doing something like this right now in France. Last week the French 10-year note went through five percent for the first time in twenty-five years. French yields are blowing out versus their German peers, and the cost of insuring French debt against default is making highs we haven’t seen in years. Some of that comes from France’s own budget mess and the riots and such, and some of it is because of global events. The Israel-U.S.-Iran war is pushing up energy prices, and central banks are hiking yields in response. So bond rates are going up everywhere, and they’re exposing the weakest borrowers first, like France...
..Some of this is also AI borrowers. There are trillions of dollars flooding into AI, and the sector is now borrowing on a scale that competes with the U.S. government for the same lenders. Only a handful of companies are responsible for most of the expected earnings growth for the entire S&P 500 this coming quarter. A growing share of that entire build-out is funded by debt, not by free cash flow or profits, and we’re now seeing that the financing runs in a big circle.....2) A World War
A great power war could unravel everything growth has depended on all at the same time: currencies, letters of credit, supply chains, the ease of cross-border trade, who controls nuclear weapons, and the basic trust and resulting complexity between trading partners that lets us send goods and energy around the planet with little to no friction. This entire just-in-time global machine assumes a constant baseline level of cooperation, even between rivals. A real global war would kick that support out, popping this overextended balloon from outside the financial system entirely, at least initially.Nuclear weapons add risk to this category in two ways. They might be the cause of the conflict, ending growth all by themselves. They could also be the multiplier, turning a bad war into a civilizational one. In this situation, economic growth doesn’t just end; the entire global economy immediately goes to zero in the same way that the growth of turkey populations increases throughout the year until Thanksgiving...
..3) Tearing Down From Below
When a society’s surplus shrinks, the fight over who gets what often looks like a fight against the system itself.I think we see this from three separate directions, but they all rhyme. First is from the perspective of the people who look at inequality and an unfeeling global economic Superorganism that is failing a lot of society, and their response is to want it changed fast. There’s also an angrier version of that: people who feel cheated and taken advantage of, and want someone to pay. Finally, there are those who now perceive that they have nothing left to lose. From that vantage point, making other people lose (a.k.a. “burning it all down”) becomes a perfectly rational plan to them.
Look at France right now. The government has been trying to close a budget gap by cutting a few percent off public spending and public wages and freezing most pensions. In the scheme of things, this is a pretty mild version of a contraction, which is being forced by the bond market due to French borrowing costs sitting at their highest rates in twenty-five years... it’s led to a ton of people in the streets. Last week a historic city hall burned to the ground, and thousands of people were arrested.
This is what contraction looks like in political terms, especially in a world used to the services and comforts of modernity. I think it will be hard for us to tell the difference between a responsible government trying to navigate a planned glide down and a corrupt one who’s doing wrong by their population. I should add that the environmental activists, the very people who want less throughput, are also in the coalition taking the streets of France to march against the impacts of less throughput...
This is what contraction looks like in political terms, especially in a world used to the services and comforts of modernity. I think it will be hard for us to tell the difference between a responsible government trying to navigate a planned glide down and a corrupt one who’s doing wrong by their population. I should add that the environmental activists, the very people who want less throughput, are also in the coalition taking the streets of France to march against the impacts of less throughput...
..4) Holding In Place By Force
If the third risk is pushing for social change faster than a coupled system can absorb, the fourth is the opposite: trying to hold everything in place by force and authoritarian control.....Of course, there’s also a newer version of that which is increasingly plausible to me. It’s the merger of the big AI companies with government, surveillance, and the military. Because as fewer and fewer systems control the information, the technology, the surveillance, and the enforcement (not to mention the weapons), there are fewer and fewer freedoms for the average person. Then our world starts to look like an Arnold Schwarzenegger sci-fi movie. In other words, these strongman risks existed in the past, but I think AI makes them a bit stronger.
5) Ecological Limits
This is where our economic structure starts to crumble from beneath. In the coming decades, global heating will show up, mostly as a grind rather than a bang, though we might see some mini bangs in the next few months due to the Super El Niño events.But over time, this grind brings us reduced crop yields, dropping water tables, insurance pulling out of entire regions, and higher wet-bulb temperatures that slowly force people to migrate in the millions and hundreds of millions. These things will all take a slow but large toll on our system. This slow grind will create hard constraints, both financial and economic ones.
The heat will be a big one, but it’s far from the only one. Topsoils are going to become more marginal, and we’ll likely see a decline in the global fisheries, forests, and pollinators that do a lot of work that isn’t included in GDP. Phosphorus, which we need to grow food, comes from a very small handful of mines that are not refilling. There are many other examples like this on the horizon, or perhaps beginning to arrive now...
..This path is different from the others. The rest are true risks – they’re things that may or may not happen. This one will become more certain the longer economic growth continues...
..6) The Thing From Outside
There are ways growth ends that are separate from individual and aggregate human behavior: a big solar flare frying our transformers and satellites, Yellowstone or another supervolcano erupting, a giant earthquake under a huge chip fabrication plant, or a big rock hurtling toward us from space (like the Bruce Willis movie Armageddon).....In 1859, the biggest solar storm on record – the Carrington event – hit the Earth, and the worst it did was set some telegraph wires sparking. That’s because, at the time, telegraphs were the only thing we had that would be affected. The difference today is that a similar storm would take out transformers and satellites across the whole planet at once, because we now have a tightly connected electronic civilization with close to zero resilience in it...
..7) Everything Else
A system as large and precarious as our modern industrial civilization has a failure list longer than a single person could write down, or even imagine.Items keep merging and compounding and influencing each other. We could see a pandemic worse than the last one, or a cyberwar that takes down a grid, or a complexity cascade in the supply chains where a single product like fertilizer, sulfur, or high-quality quartz for crucibles fails, and takes an entire chain with it. There are more human-centered possibilities as well, like a collapse of our shared reality and facts to the point where humanity can no longer agree on enough basic truisms to even act together in a cohesive way...
..If we really internalize this logic, there’s a strange kind of motivation hidden in it: this predicament means we can prepare in ways that will be helpful, regardless of which risks turn out to be the trigger to the downslope of the Carbon Pulse.
As individuals, I suggest that you carry less personal and professional fragility. Focus a bit more on the real wealth of soil, water, and relationships and less on your financial representations of real wealth. As I’ve said before, strive to become a metaphorical “rock in the river” that stays stable as the systems and circumstances flow around you. Build social capital with your neighbors, left and right, young and old. All the people that are in proximity to you are the people you’ll lean on when the metaphorical water starts rushing faster around us. https://natehagens.substack.
As individuals, I suggest that you carry less personal and professional fragility. Focus a bit more on the real wealth of soil, water, and relationships and less on your financial representations of real wealth. As I’ve said before, strive to become a metaphorical “rock in the river” that stays stable as the systems and circumstances flow around you. Build social capital with your neighbors, left and right, young and old. All the people that are in proximity to you are the people you’ll lean on when the metaphorical water starts rushing faster around us. https://natehagens.substack.
The Honest Sorcerer, The US After Elections: Resource Depletion Meets Imperial Decline - Profiting from wars abroad, too, has an expiration date and soon will become impossible
Never in history did we see anything even remotely similar: the rise and now rapid fall of the global hegemon, perfectly coinciding with a similar fall in global energy production. Oil and gas is still the heart and blood of this civilization—without which there is no mining, agriculture, or for that matter: electrification. Simply put: there is no next economy, and as a direct consequence: there will be no next global hegemon either. The decline in net energy production from oil and gas—now artificially pulled in by the United States—will force nations to focus on self-preservation. Energy security, then sufficiency. Rationing, either through price or mandate. Waging wars to be better positioned, not to gain total control as it’s costs would rapidly become prohibitive. Resource and scrap nationalism. Shorter supply chains and reduced trade. Fragmentation. Price inflation for essentials (food, energy) and a massive deflation for everything else.
The days of imperial extraction are numbered. America needs a rapid and decisive course correction more than any time during its history. When (and not if) terminal decline in US oil and gas production sets in, marketing LNG and petroleum products abroad will rapidly become a harder sell at home. https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-us-after-elections-resource-depletion
Armstrong says, "Socrates is looking at everything. It showed Texas would flip blue, but Florida would stay red...
"Even on the national level, it showed we were looking at a blue tsunami. It is also showing that was necessary for its forecast going into 2032...
The Democrats are in a long-term bear market, despite all the hoopla and everything else.
Socrates shows they will not win in 2028. I have said in my last three conferences that the Democrat party will split. You have even seen James Carville say he's no longer a Democrat (and wants to leave the party)."...
"Even on the national level, it showed we were looking at a blue tsunami. It is also showing that was necessary for its forecast going into 2032...
The Democrats are in a long-term bear market, despite all the hoopla and everything else.
Socrates shows they will not win in 2028. I have said in my last three conferences that the Democrat party will split. You have even seen James Carville say he's no longer a Democrat (and wants to leave the party)."...
..Armstrong says: "Socrates was looking at trends, and, basically, it was time to flip. Then you look at what is going to come, and it's going to be total chaos. .. You are going to be looking at investigations and all sorts of things. What the computer is projecting is this chaos for the next two years.
We are going into a stagflation and a recession where the economic growth will now decline. Inflation is going to go up. Democrats who voted this way are going to find out it does not matter who the heck you put in. Washington is Washington.
We are going into a stagflation and a recession where the economic growth will now decline. Inflation is going to go up. Democrats who voted this way are going to find out it does not matter who the heck you put in. Washington is Washington.
Going into 2028, you are going to see a rise in third party activity. People are just fed up with Republicans and Democrats."...
..Armstrong says, "The Democrats are anti Russia. They are going to fund Zelensky in Ukraine...""He immediately started attacking refineries (in Russia). So, there is no way we are looking at a peaceful resolution. . .. There is no chance in hell. . .. They are going to be promoting war with Russia." https://www.zerohedge.com/political/its-going-be-total-chaos-martin-armstrong-warns-people-are-just-fed-washington#google_vignette
Debt-Default is necessary and terribly disruptive: Thomas Kolbe, 'Clownery & Consequences': France Bows To The Reality Of Its Debt Crisis
In an effort to create some financial breathing room, the parliamentary LIOT group (Libertés, Indépendants, Outre-mer et Territoires) presented an unusual proposal. It wants to raise a kind of citizen loan worth 50 billion euros, financed through government bonds available exclusively to French citizens. An interest rate of 3.5 percent is supposed to channel French savings into this financing vehicle, which would also guarantee tax-free interest payments. With a maturity of ten years and an inflation rate that has now climbed above three percent in France, this is hardly an attractive deal -- particularly as the country's debt continues to rise unchecked and the budget deficit is expected to exceed six percent next year. With every passing year, the default risk on French bonds increases. Nor will the attempt to shift the debt from foreign to domestic creditors change that. The lawmakers expect this curious bond to generate interest savings of up to 25 billion euros over ten years. The government has so far rejected the proposal. France is in a state of political lockdown.
There is no room left to maneuver in fiscal policy. Any attempt at austerity is met by the United Left in the streets. Migrant riots, looting, and orchestrated chaos block this route out of the budget crisis. That leaves tax policy. With government spending accounting for more than 57 percent of the economy, tax increases have become inevitable year after year, as the economy can no longer develop...
..Jean-Luc Mélenchon, founder and leading figure of the La France insoumise party, came up with the brilliant idea of eliminating that portion of the national debt held by the Banque de France within the Eurosystem.
A fiscal magic trick: one side simply burns the other side's junk -- after all, it is all the same club, the state apparatus.
Public debt would shrink by roughly 18 percent, seemingly out of thin air...
..An answer came just a few weeks ago from Marine Le Pen, the potential next president of France. The leading figure of the Rassemblement National came up with the bridge-building idea of using the carbon intensity of each national economy as the basis for calculating part of the EU member contributions. Put simply: Let the Germans pay through the nose while we take it easy. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/clownery-consequences-france-bows-reality-its-debt-crisis A fiscal magic trick: one side simply burns the other side's junk -- after all, it is all the same club, the state apparatus.
Public debt would shrink by roughly 18 percent, seemingly out of thin air...
Moon of Alabama, War On Iran: – Khamenei Order To End Ambiguous Situation
There is currently a standoff in the Middle East where Iran and its allies on one side, and the U.S., Israel and their proxies, are involved in a situation that is neither peace nor war.
The U.S. position on the war is currently vague. According to several news reports one faction (Hegseth et al) within the Trump administration is pushing for more war. Another (Vance et al) is urging to conclude peace negotiations. A third faction (Bessent et al) wants to continue the current standoff with the hope that economic strangulation alone will in the end defeat Iran.
The last alternative, which might look like a winning compromise, is not a stable situation, but a reason for Iran to escalate. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/11/war-on-iran-khamenei-order-to-end-ambiguous-situation.html
There is currently a standoff in the Middle East where Iran and its allies on one side, and the U.S., Israel and their proxies, are involved in a situation that is neither peace nor war.
The U.S. position on the war is currently vague. According to several news reports one faction (Hegseth et al) within the Trump administration is pushing for more war. Another (Vance et al) is urging to conclude peace negotiations. A third faction (Bessent et al) wants to continue the current standoff with the hope that economic strangulation alone will in the end defeat Iran.
The last alternative, which might look like a winning compromise, is not a stable situation, but a reason for Iran to escalate. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/11/war-on-iran-khamenei-order-to-end-ambiguous-situation.html
Larry Johnson, Dazed and Confused: Trump’s Two Wars With Iran
F. Scott Fitzgerald said the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still function. By that standard, Donald Trump spent Sunday and Monday proving he is a genius. In the space of 48 hours, the President told us the war with Iran is winding down and that the military is “locked and loaded.” Strikes are “highly unlikely,” and he has picked out 38 bridges to blow up. A deal is close, and the blockade should stay. I have spent much of my career reading intelligence reports written to please several masters at once. I have never seen anyone do it this well in public, with no notes...
..Trump is not describing one policy. He is talking to four audiences at once.
American voters fired his party last Tuesday over the war and gas prices. They get Peace Trump: momentum, politeness, a war “ending quickly.” Tehran gets War Trump: locked and loaded, 38 bridges, the blockade tightening under Iron Gate. That is leverage, or at least an attempt at it.
The Gulf monarchies are terrified of another round of Iranian missiles on their oil terminals. They get the “status quo,” meaning no new strikes but no lifting of the blockade either.
Benjamin Netanyahu, who is reportedly calling Trump every day to push him to resume the war, gets the reassurance that Iran “will never have a nuclear weapon” and that American forces are staying put...
Trita Parsi, The Swiss Cheese Solution: How Trump May Walk Away From Iran - The Iran War May End Not With a Bang, but With a Whimper
Though pressure for war has been intensifying, if Trump doesn’t go down this path in the next three to four weeks, I agree that the likelihood will start to dwindle as Trump’s maneuverability will be eclipsed by a Democratic Senate and House; he will likely lose his Secretary of War, and the next Prime Minister in Israel will likely not share Benjamin Netanyahu’s obsession with Iran or his skills in playing the American political system.
But even if the risk of war declines, that does not necessarily mean the likelihood of a deal increases. Sticking points such as Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, the status of Iran’s future enrichment, a regional ceasefire, sanctions relief, and the political cost Trump will pay for any deal with Tehran make it difficult to both reach a deal - and to keep it. The most likely scenario may prove to be neither war nor peace - yet different from the middle path Trump chose last Friday. In this scenario, Trump’s economic warfare and blockade would only exist on paper. Meaning, Trump rejects both war and peace, walks away and claims to retain the blockade and sanctions infrastructure, but in reality imperceptibly begins to let it wither away.
The blockade begins to loosen, sanctions enforcement begins to decay, and slowly but surely, Asian and Middle Eastern countries begin trading with and investing in Iran. A new equilibrium emerges in which sanctions enforcement is strong enough for the U.S. to claim the restrictions are still in place, yet weak enough to prevent Tehran from challenging the new status quo.
This Swiss cheese scenario is the only walk-away option that could work. Because if Trump seriously retains the blockade and the sanctions, tensions between the US and Iran would be such that the two countries would constantly be on the verge of war with each other - as they are right now. Such an unstable status quo would eventually escalate into another war, defeating the very purpose of the walk-away...
This Swiss cheese scenario is the only walk-away option that could work. Because if Trump seriously retains the blockade and the sanctions, tensions between the US and Iran would be such that the two countries would constantly be on the verge of war with each other - as they are right now. Such an unstable status quo would eventually escalate into another war, defeating the very purpose of the walk-away...
..Given Trump’s aversion to admitting defeat, his fear of coming across as a loser, his impatience with complicated diplomacy, his obsession with outdoing Obama’s JCPOA, and Iran’s disinterest in giving him an ego-soothing exit ramp, he may end up choosing the Swiss cheese walk-away option. Not because it’s better, but because it will cost him less. https://tritaparsi.substack.com/p/the-swiss-cheese-solution-how-trump
Trump after meeting with Qatari PM says he believes war with Iran is militarily ‘effectively over’ https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-trump-qatar-c38770b168faf5e094e96c1e1e212cffThe House voted to refer the articles of impeachment proposed by Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.) back to the Judiciary Committee for consideration, effectively blocking the effort for now. The vote was 211 to 204, with Massie as the only Republican who sided with Democrats.
In a social-media post, President Trump said the vote exonerated Hegseth. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/massie-starts-clock-hegseths-impeachment-heres-how-many-republicans-he-needs
In a social-media post, President Trump said the vote exonerated Hegseth. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/massie-starts-clock-hegseths-impeachment-heres-how-many-republicans-he-needs
Andrew Korybko is not making predictions, but laying out all the deals Trump could make with Russia, China, Iran and allies to cut US costs of empire and improve the domestic US economy before 2028. What Could The Eurasian Order Look Like If Trump Cuts A Series Of Deals To Save MAGA? https://korybko.substack.com/p/what-could-the-eurasian-order-look
"Pay us back any and all costs that we've had for the war," Trump tells CBS's 60 Minutes. "We're gonna get all that money back," he adds.
Trump says "Without us, they wouldn't exist. Without us, Israel wouldn't exist." https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2119640499497677074
Israel Is 'Rich Enough' To Buy US Weapons Without Financial Aid, Rubio Says https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-rich-enough-enough-buy-us-weapons-without-financial-aid-rubio-says
Reports Say Trump, Netanyahu Engaged In "Shouting Match From Hell" - Bibi Denies
Israel's Ynet claims the last call escalated into a "shouting match from hell" regarding military strategy toward Iran, at a moment Trump wants to give indirect negotiations more time - while Netanyahu reportedly wants more muscular and immediate action...
..Netanyahu’s office strongly denied the confrontation to the outlet, dismissing the report as “fake news” and “complete nonsense.” A senior Israeli official acknowledged that the conversation took place, but insisted it was “very much not a difficult conversation.”
The reported dispute comes as the Israeli leader argues that Iran’s nuclear ambitions cannot be permanently eliminated without overthrowing its government.
Trump at the start of this week when asked by 60 Minutes about renewing direct military action stated: "Well, I’m not looking to. I don’t think there’s any reason to. I don’t think there’s any reason to." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/reports-say-trump-netanayhu-engaged-shouting-match-hell-phone-call-bibi-denies
The reported dispute comes as the Israeli leader argues that Iran’s nuclear ambitions cannot be permanently eliminated without overthrowing its government.
Trump at the start of this week when asked by 60 Minutes about renewing direct military action stated: "Well, I’m not looking to. I don’t think there’s any reason to. I don’t think there’s any reason to." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/reports-say-trump-netanayhu-engaged-shouting-match-hell-phone-call-bibi-denies
Israel blockades all sturdy-tents and structural housing: Gaza’s Winter: A War Without End and Shelters That Offer No Protection https://www.globalresearch.ca/gaza-winter-war-without-end-shelters-that-offer-no-protection/5945472
What is at stake in all these scenarios is the formation of a government able to carry out Washington and Tel Aviv’s war agenda. The election campaign was largely fought as a contest between two war criminals over how best to prosecute the genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza and extend it to the West Bank, and continue the ongoing wars against Lebanon, Syria and above all Iran.
Netanyahu has been indicted for war crimes and crimes against humanity by the UN’s International Criminal Court, while Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet for eight months to prosecute Israel’s war on Gaza. It was Eisenkot who formulated, in 2008, the Dahiya doctrine that calls for the use of overwhelming, disproportionate force against civilian infrastructure in enemy-controlled territory that has become Israel’s standard operating procedure.
Both camps, the ultra-nationalists and supposed “liberal” Zionists, fought a racist campaign against the Palestinians. They are all committed to the continuation and expansion of the wars against the Palestinians and back US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, pledging Israel’s services as Washington’s proxy in its bid to dominate the resource-rich region. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/11/08/xoda-n08.html
Netanyahu has been indicted for war crimes and crimes against humanity by the UN’s International Criminal Court, while Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet for eight months to prosecute Israel’s war on Gaza. It was Eisenkot who formulated, in 2008, the Dahiya doctrine that calls for the use of overwhelming, disproportionate force against civilian infrastructure in enemy-controlled territory that has become Israel’s standard operating procedure.
Both camps, the ultra-nationalists and supposed “liberal” Zionists, fought a racist campaign against the Palestinians. They are all committed to the continuation and expansion of the wars against the Palestinians and back US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, pledging Israel’s services as Washington’s proxy in its bid to dominate the resource-rich region. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/11/08/xoda-n08.html
Eisenkot quickly targets Netanyahu’s legacy in new Israeli parliament https://www.arabnews.com/middle-east/eisenkot-quickly-targets-netanyahus-legacy-in-new-israeli-parliament-3010896
Palestinian Israeli citizens who likely voted recently: Israeli mob attacks Palestinian citizens during Lod rally
Far-right march sparks clashes and leaves several residents injured, as Palestinians fear more attacks https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-mob-attacks-palestinian-citizens-israel-lod-during-provocative-march Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-11-11
Most of the rest is continuation: tankers are still burning in Hormuz while crude falls anyway, the Abu Dhabi talks go into day two, and the Saudi–Yemen front keeps widening. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-11-11
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-11-10
The rest is continuation with new dates: the Houthis hit the Saudi East-West pipeline, the Abu Dhabi trilateral opens today and the Hegseth impeachment vote is expected by Wednesday. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-11-10
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-11-09
The big new shock is Nvidia. Jensen Huang admitted an affair with a woman reportedly flagged by US intelligence as a Chinese spy, the board opened an independent probe, and NVDA traded 5-6% lower premarket. It lands on an AI unwind that already has Taiwan imposing emergency short-selling curbs as of today. In the Gulf, the IRGC claims three more tankers ablaze in Hormuz while Tehran's "two-day" offer and Rubio's "ridiculous" talk past each other; Israel's coalition maths, the Saudi-Houthi exchange and Russia-Ukraine ahead of Abu Dhabi are continuation with real detail. Watching: US CPI and SoftBank earnings on Tuesday, the Abu Dhabi talks, and Nvidia's Nov 18 closed congressional briefing. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-11-09 Clashes outside a secret prison in Petropavlovskaya Borshchagovka, a suburb of Kiev, revealed the dark side of modern Ukraine: its well-established system of abduction, torture, and human trafficking. This system is beyond the control of the Kiev authorities and of law enforcement; it has become a self-sustaining sector of the economy. While everyone is aware of its existence, many choose to remain silent, fearing they might become its next victims...
..Starting on October 1, 2024, at the initiative of the General Staff of the AFU, the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers allowed commanders to enlist volunteers directly into military units without going through Territorial Centers of Recruitment. On November 25, then-Commander-in-Chief of the AFU Aleksandr Syrsky signed a directive mandating that each brigade establish its own recruitment unit.....The unfortunate people caught on the streets end up in basements like the one stormed on Tuesday. There, they fall completely under the control of ‘recruiters’: they can be dispatched to the front, sold to a similar neighboring ‘unit’ (a market estimated to involve tens of thousands of people annually), or held captive for ransom. The latter practice is alarmingly common, with ransoms typically ranging from $5,000 to $20,000.
All of this occurs with the state’s approval, as the aforementioned directive from Syrsky allows direct recruitment into brigades. This is happening in the rear, and civilian police have no authority over military operations. This explains the inaction of law enforcement during the incident in Borshchagovka...
All of this occurs with the state’s approval, as the aforementioned directive from Syrsky allows direct recruitment into brigades. This is happening in the rear, and civilian police have no authority over military operations. This explains the inaction of law enforcement during the incident in Borshchagovka...
..Typically, local police don’t pursue deserters; if someone runs away from the front and manages to get home, local police generally don’t bother to catch him.
However, they could turn such a person over to local brigade recruiters, who would track him down, imprison him in a basement, and subject him to punishment as a warning to others. Many of those held captive in the Borshchagovka basement were captured deserters. https://web.archive.org/web/20261108141807/https://rt-english.com/russia/648483-who-really-runs-ukraine/
However, they could turn such a person over to local brigade recruiters, who would track him down, imprison him in a basement, and subject him to punishment as a warning to others. Many of those held captive in the Borshchagovka basement were captured deserters. https://web.archive.org/web/20261108141807/https://rt-english.com/russia/648483-who-really-runs-ukraine/
"Supporting European Democracy": EU Approves First Military Mission Presence On Ukrainian Soil: 'Make No Secret Of It'
However, whereas this program - called the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM) - previously only took place outside of Ukraine, it will now be extended to Ukrainian territory.
In a Monday press release, the Council confirmed that it is extending the mandate of the EUMAM until November 15, 2028, with a budget of nearly 300 million (or $334 million) - but added this huge new development:
"The Council also decided to establish a presence in Ukraine to ensure direct and effective coordination with the Ukrainian military authorities," the press release from Brussels said...
..This is a huge provocation aimed at Russia, given that Moscow's position has long been that European soldiers would be fair game for Russian strikes.
While it's believed that Western forces and certainly intelligence officers been on the ground throughout the conflict, especially French forces, this has never been done in an official and public capacity.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed this change at a press conference Tuesday while speaking from Abu Dhabi at the trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US talks: "Europe's plan is quite simple, and they make no secret of it: as soon as a ceasefire is reached, they intend to move 'stabilization forces' into the territory controlled by the Kiev regime." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-approves-first-military-mission-presence-ukrainian-soil-make-no-secret-it
While it's believed that Western forces and certainly intelligence officers been on the ground throughout the conflict, especially French forces, this has never been done in an official and public capacity.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed this change at a press conference Tuesday while speaking from Abu Dhabi at the trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US talks: "Europe's plan is quite simple, and they make no secret of it: as soon as a ceasefire is reached, they intend to move 'stabilization forces' into the territory controlled by the Kiev regime." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-approves-first-military-mission-presence-ukrainian-soil-make-no-secret-it
Gilbert Doctorow doesn't mean clickbait title: Donald Trump: the Russians have won the war!
..Russian reporting on the talks in Abu Dhabi said nothing about the particulars of the 5 hours that the sides spent together because all the principals to the talks were mum...
..Umerov is a very sophisticated fellow. He is not your average thug in the Zelensky entourage. His warm feelings for the USA may make him more open to the complex solutions to the conflict with Russia that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have come to discuss. I close this brief introduction to the talks by noting, per the Russian state television report, that the working language of the talks appears to be Russian.
All of the foregoing is not to suggest that the path ahead will be smooth or that it will end in success. But there definitely is promise in the fact that conceptually it is way above anything that the USA has contemplated since the fall of the USSR. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/donald-trump-the-russians-have-won
Budanov, a potential rival to Zelensky, is on the negotiating team and will pay a $150 fine: Head of Zelensky’s Office Punished for Speaking Russia - Ukrainian Russophobia affects even regime’s high-ranking officials.
The situation caused unease among the authorities because a key aide to the Ukrainian (illegitimate) president, Vladimir Zelensky, was publicly speaking a language banned under Ukrainian law. Despite his high-ranking position within the regime, it was deemed necessary to punish Budanov; otherwise, an atmosphere of “impunity” regarding the use of the Russian language could emerge, potentially encouraging more people to speak it in public and thereby undermining the regime’s nationalist policies.
Consequently, Ukraine’s language ombudswoman, Elena Ivanovskaya, commented publicly on the matter, making it clear that Budanov would not go unpunished. According to the ombudswoman, Zelensky’s aide will be fined for the infraction. Budanov will be required to pay a fine ranging from 3,400 to 6,800 hryvnias (75–150 dollars), with the exact amount to be determined by the authorities. Budanov agreed to the measure and stated that he would pay the fine, thereby acknowledging his “mistake” in speaking the Russian language. https://www.globalresearch.ca/head-zelensky-office-punished-speaking-russian/5945526
Simplicius, Relentless Russian Strikes Knock Out Kiev’s Power, as Iskander Missile Gouges Capital City’s North Bridge
The campaign comes amid rumors that Putin has privately relayed to Ukraine he intends to destroy all Ukraine’s infrastructure by next year if Ukraine refuses to capitulate. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/relentless-russian-strikes-knock
By deploying the special forces unit GROM and additional police anti-terrorist units to the border with Russia’s Kaliningrad region in an operation to prevent alleged planned diversions, Poland seeks to strengthen its position as a leading military force on NATO’s eastern flank, which further strains relations with Moscow, encourages Europe’s militarization, and increases the risk of broader military escalation.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk justified the decision on November 3 by citing reports from Polish and foreign intelligence services alleging preparations for “diversions and provocations,” but offered no evidence to substantiate them. His comments came ahead of large-scale military exercises by the so-called “Coalition of the Willing,” to be held in Poland for the first time from November 9 to 22 and to serve as Western preparations for a potential deployment of military forces in Ukraine.
The Kaliningrad region was chosen for the exercise because it is among Russia’s most strategically sensitive areas. As an exclave, it has no direct land connection to the rest of Russia, being separated by the Baltic states and linked primarily by sea. This geographic position gives the region special military and security significance for Moscow. https://www.globalresearch.ca/poland-deployment-near-russia-kaliningrad-fuels-european-militarization/5945319
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk justified the decision on November 3 by citing reports from Polish and foreign intelligence services alleging preparations for “diversions and provocations,” but offered no evidence to substantiate them. His comments came ahead of large-scale military exercises by the so-called “Coalition of the Willing,” to be held in Poland for the first time from November 9 to 22 and to serve as Western preparations for a potential deployment of military forces in Ukraine.
The Kaliningrad region was chosen for the exercise because it is among Russia’s most strategically sensitive areas. As an exclave, it has no direct land connection to the rest of Russia, being separated by the Baltic states and linked primarily by sea. This geographic position gives the region special military and security significance for Moscow. https://www.globalresearch.ca/poland-deployment-near-russia-kaliningrad-fuels-european-militarization/5945319
Andrew Korybko, Poland’s Ruling Liberals, Not Russia, Are Pushing Disinfo About The Kraków Killer’s Political Views
It was later revealed from their two now-deleted Facebook pages that they were a communist, mocked Catholicism, and supported LGBT and abortion, all of which are antithetical to the “far right”.
This hasn’t gone unnoticed in Poland amidst its worst political crisis since the early 1980s after liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s judicial coup late last month, which is actually a German takeover of Poland by proxy to prepare Europe for war with Russia. The opposition believes that this lie is meant to impugn them. https://korybko.substack.com/p/polands-ruling-liberals-not-russia
The man who carried out Saturday’s deadly terrorist attack in the Polish city of Kraków – and who can now be named as 24-year-old Michał Oksiński – has died in hospital...
..“There was a constant struggle to save this man’s life, despite the evil he had committed,” Klęczar told broadcaster TVN after the death was confirmed. “He underwent at least three surgeries.”...
..The two police officers, Jakub Kulik and Artur Morański, who engaged Oksiński also suffered serious injuries, with Kulik’s condition the more critical of the two.
The situation would have been much worse were it not for the fact that two leading local surgeons had, by pure chance, been eating a meal with their families in a restaurant near where the shootout took place, and provided emergency aid to the officers.
There was also a huge public response to appeals for people to donate blood for Kulik, who underwent a series of surgeries.
On Sunday, it was announced that both Kulik and Morański had come out of the comas they had previously been placed in. Kulik’s condition was described as “serious but stable” by Karolina Gałecka, spokeswoman for the interior ministry. https://notesfrompoland.com/2026/11/09/perpetrator-of-krakow-terrorist-attack-dies-of-injuries-in-hospital/
The situation would have been much worse were it not for the fact that two leading local surgeons had, by pure chance, been eating a meal with their families in a restaurant near where the shootout took place, and provided emergency aid to the officers.
There was also a huge public response to appeals for people to donate blood for Kulik, who underwent a series of surgeries.
On Sunday, it was announced that both Kulik and Morański had come out of the comas they had previously been placed in. Kulik’s condition was described as “serious but stable” by Karolina Gałecka, spokeswoman for the interior ministry. https://notesfrompoland.com/2026/11/09/perpetrator-of-krakow-terrorist-attack-dies-of-injuries-in-hospital/
Ugo Bardi is uneasy about these guys: The Nine Knights of the Apocalypse - Trump, the elections, and misplaced optimism about the future
The nine knights of the apocalypse: nine states, nine governments, nine leaders. Each one can decide on a nuclear strike at the whim of a single individual. How we managed to survive up to now in this situation is nothing short of a miracle, but it is not guaranteed that it will last for long. https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-nine-knights-of-the-apocalypse
Peter McCullough MD is also worried about the foreshadowing we have been getting, and the underlying risks. Fortress America Is Building a Lifeboat. Are You in It? The Pentagon is preparing for 90 days without the grid. When rogue AI paralyzes your hospital and pharmacy, your prescriptions are at risk — here's how to get prepared before disaster strikes. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/fortress-america-is-building-a-lifeboat
Got water, food, propane and a secure location? The "Black Sky" Plan & The "Be Ready" Campaign... What Kind Of Disaster Is The UK Urgently Preparing For? https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/black-sky-plan-be-ready-campaign-what-kind-disaster-uk-urgently-preparing
Bill Gates is once again floating the idea that real damage may be required before the world accepts the kind of AI controls he wants.
In the interview with Tony Dokoupil, Gates stated, "It may be that we have to suffer a few of the negatives before we respond as fully as we should."He added that such incidents would not be civilization-ending but would still be serious. The discussion included the possibility of a cyberattack on major retirement platforms such as Fidelity or Vanguard, which hold a substantial portion of Americans' nest eggs. Gates noted that such an event would create significant uncertainty. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bill-gates-huge-catastrophe-may-be-needed
Not just a "burn-it-down" prank? France Blames Iran For Cyberattack That Paralyzed Supermarket Freezers, Vows Retaliation For "Sabotage" https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/france-blames-iran-cyberattack-paralyzed-supermarkets-vows-retaliation-sabotage
Caitlin Johnstone, all-information, even money... They Want To Use AI To Re-Centralize Control Of Information https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/they-want-to-use-ai-to-re-centralize
I disagree with Alex Krainer this time. Seek Divine Guidance: Could AI save the world?
AI will prove transformational. With fulness of time, it could give life to beautiful things and, as Dostoevsky famously said, beauty will save the world. https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/could-ai-save-the-world A Midwestern Doctor (money is political speech), Why Washington Ignores What 90% of Us Want
How a handful of insiders blocked the policies voters wanted, cost Republicans Congress, and are now moving back to financing the other party Republicans lost both chambers of Congress, as the strategy their leadership bet on largely failed. Notably, voters ranked government corruption as the most important factor in their vote.
Days later, Calley Means, who led MAHA implementation at the White House until October, went on Joe Rogan and laid out how a handful of former lobbyists who controlled the policy process blocked popular MAHA reforms while advancing the priorities of the industries paying their firms. Hours after it aired, Trump announced the chief of staff he named was out.
Much of what he described is in the public record: the executive order shielding glyphosate, the administration’s brief that helped Bayer win immunity at the Supreme Court, the push for fruit-flavored vapes that preceded Marty Makary’s exit, the reversal on “gas station heroin,” and the record revenues of the lobbying firms tied to the chief of staff.
Holding MAHA back “until after the midterms” was the same advice that cost Trump the 2020 election, when his advisers agreed the COVID policies were wrong but refused to “rock the boat” before the vote.
The internet has broken the top-down messaging that once let a small group decide what the public cared about. This election (along with the data center revolt) showed voters are increasingly identifying the problems they feel matter independent of media messaging
In this article, I will review what Calley revealed, why it reflects a structural problem in both parties rather than a single administration, and what I feel is the best path forward available to us now. https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/why-washington-ignores-what-90-of
One might hope, but it's Stephen Miller's word... RFK Jr. Says Big Developments Coming In Wake Of Midterms
..Stephen Miller, the longtime aide to President Donald Trump and the new chief of staff, met with Kennedy before the midterm elections and told Kennedy that after the midterms, he would put Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives at the top of his priority list, according to Kennedy.
The health secretary also said that he went to Miller's house for dinner on Nov. 1, and Miller's wife told guests that they had no idea how passionate Miller is on MAHA.
Miller said during a 2025 MAHA event that his wife was a MAHA mom and he had been shocked to learn of all the toxins children are exposed to, including toxins in food and the environment. https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/rfk-jr-says-big-developments-coming-wake-midterms
The health secretary also said that he went to Miller's house for dinner on Nov. 1, and Miller's wife told guests that they had no idea how passionate Miller is on MAHA.
Miller said during a 2025 MAHA event that his wife was a MAHA mom and he had been shocked to learn of all the toxins children are exposed to, including toxins in food and the environment. https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/rfk-jr-says-big-developments-coming-wake-midterms
I reminded John Leake that "incompetence" is the usual defense for mass-murder: Is Institutional Medicine Dominated by Retards?
Increasing number of calls about grave, idiopathic illnesses and horribly mishandled patients has me wondering about selective pressure that favors stupid, conformist, and unimaginative doctors. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/is-institutional-medicine-dominated Meryl Nass MD, Fluoride: 54 out of 55 studies show fluoride at levels slightly above what is being added to municipal water supplies lowers IQ and/or causes neurodevelopmental problems - Lovely 1 hr talk on the legal fight and the data and what you need to know to protect your family https://merylnass.substack.com/p/fluoride-54-out-of-55-studies-show
Now, after midterms, even? FDA Rejects Petition to Study Health Impacts of LED Lights
The FDA has denied a citizen petition urging it to study the health impacts of LED lights and report its findings to Congress, despite a recent study showing LED lightbulbs can suppress melatonin more than incandescent lightbulbs. Congress is considering a bill that would repeal Biden-era regulations that make it nearly impossible to buy incandescent lightbulbs. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/fda-rejects-citizen-petition-study-health-impacts-led-lights/ Steve Kirsch, Levi paper showing Pfizer is a toxic vaccine is now published. And anyone claiming there is “nothing to see here” is intellectually dishonest. The Florida Pfizer-Moderna mortality comparison paper by MIT Professor Retsef Levi is now published in the peer-reviewed literature. The paper shows it is highly likely the Pfizer shots were deadly. https://kirschsubstack.com/p/levi-paper-showing-pfizer-is-a-toxic
Paul Marik MD, Gastric Cancer: Epidemiology, Causes, Diagnosis, and Modern Treatment
From Helicobacter pylori and chronic inflammation to molecular classification, precision oncology, immunotherapy, and integrative care https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/gastric-cancer-epidemiology-causes Jessica Rose Ph.D. is a scientist on a philosophical quest for the true nature of reality ;-) Everyone can feel it: The frequency of the real
Vibrational logic, competing theories of awareness, suppressed maps of reality, and the practice of seeing through the construct of managed reality https://jessicar.substack.com/p/everyone-can-feel-it-the-frequencyPondering life (Re-Cyclist)
