Revising Assessments,
My overarching observation is that the Kremlin has written off any possible contribution by Donald Trump to ending the war in Ukraine and are relying solely on their own efforts to subdue Kiev in the coming weeks and ending the war on their own terms.
I am hopeful that viewers will find the discussion of the foregoing to be worth their time. However, I am particularly pleased with the final 10 minutes in the interview in which I was given the opportunity to explain my position calling for the deconstruction of the European Union and the return to an economic alliance such as the European Economic Community before the creation of the Union in 1992. I see this as feasible, while retaining many of the benefits of the EU, such as the common currency, if the Euro is changed from a Fiat valuta to a gold-backed currency. In any case, the pitiful collective EU leadership consisting of nonentities is the direct result of the abandonment of sovereignty in the 1992 constitution which leaves the 27 “leaders” with no powers and no responsibilities to deal with the crises at Europe’s doorstep and beyond that we see today. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/dialogue-works-3-december-2024-russias
Scholz will try to find out at a meeting with Zelensky what the Ukrainian side is ready to do for the sake of peace, — Bild
Analysts believe that ahead of the early Bundestag elections, the Chancellor is seeking to present herself as a leader ready to negotiate a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
This position is an order for him: if US President Donald Trump starts negotiations to end the war, as announced, Scholz intends to defend Ukraine's position, the publication writes.
Annalena Baerbock seemed to confirm this angle by simultaneously traveling to China to likewise apply negotiations pressures... "To protect our own German and European security, it is now important to support Ukraine and to clearly engage in the peace process together with the international community, and that is why I am here in China today," Annalena Baerbock said in Beijing...
1. End Russia's political isolation...
2. Apply pressure to Kiev and Moscow to negotiate (more or fewer armament supplies)...
3. Russian incentives: Keep territories already taken, Delay Ukrainian NATO membership 10 years, Partially lift sanctions against Russia (and Europe, regarding gas and oil)...
4 & 5: Status-quo carrots and sticks for Ukraine and Russia, not including demilitarization or denazification of Ukraine, which will be unacceptable to Moscow, but serve to open discussions...
Given that it’s said Malofeyev has Putin’s ear, his words carry weight. And not surprisingly, he refers back to Putin’s long-held requirement that any closure to the Ukrainian conflict must include a grander reconfiguration of the entire broader regional security architecture...
Donald Trump’s pledge to end Russia’s war in Ukraine is doomed to failure if the US president-elect does not involve broader talks on Moscow’s security concerns, an influential hardliner close to the Kremlin has warned... [Entire world order returning to Westphalian principles of international law]... This is a good sign: it means Putin could be holding to his word, and not slipping toward watering down Russia’s terms...
He said Moscow would only see it as a lasting condition for peace if Trump was willing to discuss other global flashpoints including the wars in the Middle East and Russia’s burgeoning alliance with China — and a US acknowledgment that Ukraine is part of the Kremlin’s core interests.
What does this consist of, exactly? It is a return to first principles, the cessation of political ‘games’ and the acknowledgment of geopolitical realities: such as that Great Powers have critical zones of influence and national security interests which must be respected; i.e. you don’t get to use Russia’s regional backyard as your personal sandbox, which would theoretically affect China and the China Sea issue as well. In other words, it’s an actual codification of a new and real “Rules Based Order” rather than the fictive one presently used by Western neocons to justify a lawless form of modern imperialism...
Russia is against "freezing" the conflict according to the Korean scenario, the SVR director said
Naryshkin also said that a peaceful settlement is possible in the event of an agreement that includes "peace for the entire European continent."
"Russia categorically rejects any freezing of the conflict according to the Korean or any other option. We need a strong and long-term peace for many, many years to come. Moreover, this peace must be ensured first of all for us, Russia, the citizens of the Russian Federation. But this peace must also be ensured for the entire European continent."
He also said that Russia is ready for peace talks in Ukraine on the terms that Putin announced in June. These terms include Ukraine handing over to Russia the entire territory of four regions - Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia...
But thus far, there is no indication Russia has made any large buildups near the river to give this theory any real credibility. Buildups on the Zaporozhye line, on the other hand, have been reported on by Ukrainian sources for a long time now. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-12224-europes-bigs-scramble
The aim has been to pressure Russia into a situation where it would feel obliged to make concessions to Ukraine, such as a to accept a freezing of the conflict, and to be obliged to negotiate against Ukrainian bargaining ‘cards’ devised to yield a solution acceptable to the U.S. Or, alternatively, for Russia to be cornered into the ‘nuclear corner’.
American strategy ultimately rests on the conviction that the U.S. could engage in a nuclear war with Russia – and prevail; that Russia understands that were it to go nuclear, it would ‘lose the world’. Or, pressured by NATO, the anger amongst Russians likely would sweep Putin from office were he to make significant concessions to Ukraine. It was a ‘win-win’ outcome – from the U.S. perspective.
Unexpectedly however, a new weapon appeared on the scene which precisely unshackles President Putin from the ‘all-or-nothing’ choice of having to concede a bargaining ‘hand’ to Ukraine, or resort to nuclear deterrence. Instead, the war can be settled by facts on the ground. Effectively, the George Kennan ‘trap’ imploded.
The Oreshnik missile (that was used to attack the Yuzhmash complex at Dnietropetrovsk) provides Russia with a weapon, such as never before witnessed: An intermediate range missile system that effectively checkmates the western nuclear threat.
Russia can now manage western escalation with a credible threat of retaliation that is both hugely destructive – yet conventional. It inverts the paradigm. It is now the West’s escalation that either has to go nuclear, or be limited to providing Ukraine with weapons such as ATACMS or Storm Shadow that will not alter the course of the war. Were NATO to escalate further, it risks an Oreshnik strike in retaliation, either in Ukraine or on some target in Europe, leaving the West with the dilemma of what to do next.
Putin has warned: ‘If you strike again in Russia, we will respond with an Oreshnik hit on a military facility in another nation. We will provide warning, so that civilians can evacuate. There is nothing that you can do to prevent this; you do not have an anti-missile system that can stop an attack coming in at Mach 10’.
The tables are turned...
The other wing to the ‘global war’ reflects a mirror paradox: That is, ‘Israel is strong and Iran is weak’. The central point is not only its cultural underpinning, but that the entire Israeli and U.S. apparatus is party to the narrative that Iran is a weak and technically backward country...
The Israeli war however, is metamorphosing in other ways. The war in Gaza and Lebanon has strained Israeli manpower; the IDF have sustained heavy losses; its troops are exhausted; and the reservists are losing commitment to Israel’s wars, and are failing to show up for duty.
Israel has reached the limits of its capacity to put boots on the ground (short of conscripting the Orthodox Haredi Yeshiva students – an act that could bring down the Coalition).
In short, the Israeli army’s troop levels have fallen below present command ordered military commitments. The economy is imploding and internal divisions are raw and bruising. This is especially so due to the inequity of secular Israelis dying, whilst others stay exempt from military service – a destiny reserved for some but not others.
This tension played a major part in Netanyahu’s decision to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon. The growing animus about Orthodox Haredi exemption risked bringing down the Coalition... Many Israelis now see war with Iran as the catharsis that will bind a fractured people together again, and – if victorious – end all of Israel’s wars.
Outside, the war widens and shape-shifts: Lebanon, for now, is put on a low flame burner, but Turkey has triggered a major military operation (reportedly some 15,000 strong) in an attack on Aleppo, using U.S. and Turkish trained jihadists and militia from Idlib. Turkish Intelligence no doubt has its own distinct objectives, but the U.S. and Israel have a particular interest to disrupt weapons supply routes to Hizbullah in Lebanon.
The Israeli wanton onslaught on non-combatants, women and children – and its explicit ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population – has left the region (and the Global South) seething and radicalised. Israel, through its actions, is disrupting the old ethos. The region is ‘conservative’ no more. Rather, a very different ‘Awakening’ is gestating. https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/12/02/long-war-reaffirm-western-and-israeli-primacy-undergoes-shape-shift/
A Timeline That Demands Attention:
– November 16, 2024: The [Obiden Regime] authorizes Ukraine to employ long-range ATACMS missiles to strike Russian targets, marking a significant escalation in the U.S.’s involvement in the war.
– November 17, 2024: The first of two undersea cables, the BCS East-West Interlink connecting Lithuania and Sweden, is severed.
– November 18, 2024: The C-Lion1 cable, which links Finland and Germany, is also cut...
The Criticality of These Cables:
– C-Lion1 (Finland-Germany): A high-capacity line enabling secure communications and data transfer between Nordic countries and NATO’s central command in Germany. This cable is integral for military logistics and real-time decision-making.
– BCS East-West Interlink (Lithuania-Sweden): Provides vital connectivity between the Baltic states and NATO-aligned Sweden, crucial for regional security in a region bordering Russia.
The loss of these cables has effectively hampered NATO’s ability to synchronize responses, share intelligence, and execute operations in the Baltic Sea, a theater of immense strategic importance. For Russia, this creates a temporary but critical advantage...
..The methods used—deliberately dragging a multi-ton anchor across undersea cables—are both rudimentary and effective. Given the size of the anchor and the shallow waters of the Baltic Sea, the likelihood of completely severing these cables was extraordinarily high. This was not an act of chance; it was a calculated move designed to ensure maximum disruption. https://defconnews.com/2024/12/01/commentary-for-a-sunday-russia-and-china-may-have-severed-nato-cables-to-block-an-attack-and-delay-world-war-iii/
The bloc is now the main divisive force in Europe, a member of Russia’s Federation Council believes
The unrest has been going on since Thursday, when Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that he would freeze accession talks with the bloc until 2028. He accused Brussels of persistent “blackmail and manipulation” of Georgia’s internal affairs in justifying the decision.
“The first Molotov cocktails were thrown by protesters at Georgian police immediately after the new EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, publicly called the crowd’s protests legitimate and the response of the authorities – illegal,” Kosachev wrote. https://swentr.site/russia/608577-eu-aggressive-war-union/
Kremlin compares Georgia protests to Maidan coup
Commenting on the events in Georgia, Peskov stated that “there is an obvious attempt to destabilize the situation” and that similar events have taken place in “a number of countries” in recent years.
“The most direct parallel that can be drawn is the events of the Maidan in Ukraine,” Peskov said, referring to the Western-backed coup in Kiev in 2014 which ousted the country’s democratically-elected president and precipitated the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Peskov added that the anti-government protests in Georgia have “all the signs of an attempt to carry out an ‘orange revolution’.”
However, the spokesman stressed that “everything that happens in Georgia is Georgia’s internal affair.” He said that as the country’s authorities take measures to stabilize the situation, Moscow would not interfere.
Prime Minister Kobakhidze has slammed the rallies as an “attack on the constitutional order in the country” and blamed the civil unrest on “EU politicians and their agents.” He further accused the West of trying to orchestrate a coup similar to the US-backed Maidan revolution in Ukraine.
Kobakhidze has insisted that “unlike Ukraine in 2013, Georgia is an independent state with strong institutions and, most importantly, experienced and wise people. The Maidan scenario cannot be realized in Georgia. Georgia is a sovereign state and will not allow this.”
Meanwhile, the US has responded to Georgia’s decision to freeze EU accession talks by suspending its strategic partnership with the country and condemning the move, claiming it is a “betrayal of the Georgian constitution.”
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has also stated that sanctions are being considered against Tbilisi for its crackdown on protesters. https://www.rt.com/russia/608576-kremlin-georgia-protests-maidan/
Tbilisi’s decision to freeze EU accession talks was a bold move, signaling its willingness to challenge Western demands. The EU sees its ability to influence its applicants as a point of pride, and any setback, like Georgia’s hesitation, will be seen as a failure of its policies. Those who are seen as clients of the West must now swear an oath. And unwillingness to follow the common path is equated with treason.
This situation raises questions about the degree of public support for the government’s stance. The Georgian population has long been divided on the issue of European integration. The government’s position resonates with some, particularly those who see the West’s influence as counterproductive, while others demand a clearer path toward EU membership.
For the opposition, this is an opportunity to exploit popular discontent and mobilize protests. The key challenge for both sides will be managing the potential for violence. Color revolutions have always relied on the ability to escalate tensions and frame the government as authoritarian. The authorities, for their part, must maintain a delicate balance, avoiding provocations while standing firm against external pressure.
The ‘European future’ is a popular image among Georgians, and the majority of Georgian Dream supporters share this aspiration too. The party itself is firmly committed to the goals of European integration, but with its own conditions. The opposition’s argument is that the government is blocking the European path, which automatically means that Tbilisi will return to Moscow’s sphere of influence. The only question is how persistently and passionately this argument will be repeated...
Messages received by the BBC from Ukrainian soldiers via Telegram “paint a dismal picture of a battle they don’t properly understand and fear they might be losing,” the BBC said. “The situation is getting worse every day,” a soldier told the UK state broadcaster in a text message, according to an article published on Monday.
The messages were “almost uniformly bleak,” according to the BBC. One soldier said defeat was “only a matter of time.”
“They speak of dire weather conditions and a chronic lack of sleep caused by Russia’s constant bombardment, which includes the use of terrifying, 3,000kg glide bombs,” the outlet noted. “They’re also in retreat.”
Some soldiers have argued that the original mission to divert Moscow’s resources had failed. Russian forces have made major advances in southern Donbass since early August. Either way, the current mission is to hold on until US President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in at the end of January. https://www.rt.com/russia/608597-ukraine-kursk-orders-trump/
Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported on Monday that Israeli forces used machine guns to fire at houses in the town of Naqoura, situated on the border with the occupied territories.
This is not the first time that the Tel Aviv regime breached the truce that went into effect last week.
Israel was forced to accept the ceasefire with Hezbollah after suffering heavy losses following almost 14 months of fighting and failing to achieve its goals in its aggression on Lebanon.
The truce deal came into effect before dawn on Wednesday. It will last for 60 days in the hope of reaching a permanent cessation of hostilities. Under the agreement, an international monitoring committee, headed by the US, is tasked with overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire.
On Sunday, France, a member of the monitoring group, said Israel had violated the ceasefire 52 times, including a Saturday attack that killed three Lebanese civilians. Citing French officials, Israel’s Ynet news site reported that Israel had waged its attacks without consulting the truce committee and that the regime’s actions risk undermining the fragile cessation of hostilities...
Hezbollah opened a support front for Palestinians in Gaza only a day after Israel unleashed its war against the besieged territory in October 2023, launching numerous retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets in the occupied lands. https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/02/738330/Israel-attacks-Lebanon-Naqoura-violation-truce
UNIFIL sources say Israel violated the ceasefire deal 100 times before Hezbollah fired, and now Israel is threatening a major escalation
Shortly after Netanyahu’s threat, Israel carried out a series of airstrikes on areas of south Lebanon, killing at least five people. https://news.antiwar.com/2024/12/02/after-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-lebanon-that-violated-truce-hezbollah-fires-back/
The three, who media say are close to Ben Gvir, were arrested on suspicion of bribery, abuse of office and breach of trust, according to reports.
Police have not commented on the arrests.
“This is a coup d’etat... a political decision,” Ben Gvir said in televised comments. He called the arrests “an attempt to bring me down, me, the government and the prime minister,” Benjamin Netanyahu.
“The decision to investigate police officers and a senior prison service official who are clearly and fully implementing my policy... is a political decision,” Ben Gvir added. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2581569/middle-east
The International Criminal Court (ICC) says it has faced coercion and intimidation after judges issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ousted war minister over war crimes in Gaza.
Addressing the ICC members in The Hague, ICC President Tomoko Akane said the court faced “coercive measures, threats, pressure, and acts of sabotage.” “We are at a turning point in history... International law and international justice are under threat. So is the future of humanity.”
“The International Criminal Court will continue to carry out its lawful mandate, independently and impartially, without giving in to any outside interference.”
The ICC issued the arrest warrants on November 21.
The court determined there were “reasonable grounds” that Israel’s siege and assault on Gaza “created conditions of life calculated to bring about the destruction of part of the civilian population.”
Following the issuance of the warrants, the United States, Israel’s great benefactor and an accomplice in the Gaza genocide, swiftly rejected the ICC decision.
Some US Republicans called on the Senate to sanction the ICC. President Joe Biden said the warrants were “outrageous.” “Several elected officials are being severely threatened and are subjected to arrest warrants from a permanent member of the UN Security Council,” the ICC president stated. https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/02/738350/ICC-arrest-warrants
As the invaders/occupiers got bogged down in Iraq, it seemed more sensible to “do Syria” next. With the help of “friendly services,” the neocons mounted a false-flag chemical attack outside Damascus in late August 2013, blaming it on President Bashar al-Assad, whom U.S. President Barack Obama had earlier said, “had to go.”
Obama had called such a chemical attack a red line but, mirabile dictu, chose to honor the U.S. Constitution by asking Congress first. Worse still for the neocons, during the first days of September, Russian President Vladimir Putin pulled Obama’s chestnuts out of the fire by persuading Syria to destroy its chemical weapons under U.N. supervision.
Obama later admitted that virtually all of his advisers had wanted him to order Tomahawk cruise missiles into Syria. https://consortiumnews.com/2024/12/02/ray-mcgovern-neocons-try-again-in-syria/
The towns, nearly 50 km apart, link the two governorates and the extermination of terrorists in the area will allow for a deeper advance of SAA and allied forces into the southern countryside of Aleppo. https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/syrian-army-advances-in-aleppo-countryside--as-terror-lines
The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, took credit for the attack, saying they targeted three US “supply ships” and one US destroyer. According to Al Mayadeen, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said Yemeni forces carried out “precise hits,” but CENTCOM said there was no damage or injuries.
CENTCOM said the destroyers “successfully engaged and defeated three anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), three one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS), and one anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM).” https://news.antiwar.com/2024/12/02/us-military-says-it-intercepted-houthi-attack-on-us-commercial-vessels/
Joe pardoned Hunter all the way back to 2014 when Hunter started bio labs in Ukraine, started with Burisma, and began money laundering through dozens of LLC shell companies through business deals in many foreign countries including China.
Hunter is not just Joe’s son, he is his business partner, and Hunter sold his Dad’s power and influence for millions while Joe was VP and beyond. That’s why the wide sweeping pardon from 2014 to now. It covers VP to 4 yrs running for president to 4 yrs being president – 11 years of all kinds of crimes.
But the bigger crimes are all the people in the FBI, DOJ, State Department, CIA, and other agencies that all knew about the Biden family corrupt business and crimes yet stayed quiet, provided cover, lied about it all, but instead went after their political enemies.
The 51 intel officials who signed their name to a lie that Hunter’s laptop, with all the evidence, wasn’t real. https://discernreport.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-breaks-down-the-hunter-pardon-and-warns-about-whats-next/
By her taking a before and after image of the EMS hard drive, the following blatant violations of law were discovered: 1) A secret and illegal Secondary Election database is illegally created within the EMS, essentially creating a ‘second set of books’ that reports out false vote totals for the Media’s Election coverage. 2) Illegal programs are installed such as Microsoft SQL Server Management Studio that gives backdoor access to the vote total database, allowing for illegal vote flipping. 3) Numerous wireless devices were installed along with controlling software hooks, despite claims that the machines cannot be connected to an external network. This allowed off-site malicious actors to manually intervene in real-time, flipping votes anytime as required...
The establishment continues to tell Americans that artificial water fluoridation is one of the greatest "public health achievements," but Kennedy has repeatedly spoken out against it.
Instead of explaining the many dangers associated with drinking fluoridated water, MSNBC instead tries to argue that removing fluoride from water will come with "real consequences."
In 2007, the city of Juneau in Alaska removed all fluoride from its drinking water. Dental procedures related to cavities reportedly increased after that, "particularly among children in socioeconomically disadvantaged families."
"I would go as far as to say that community water fluoridation is probably our best health equity-oriented public health intervention that we have," gushed Jennifer Meyer, a nurse and professor of health sciences at the University of Alaska Anchorage.
MSNBC uses the same types of arguments to attack other things that millions of Americans want in addition to fluoride-free water: Examples include ivermectin and raw milk. According to MSNBC, ivermectin and raw milk are dangerous and should not be allowed. https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-12-02-rfk-jr-remove-fluoride-water-racist-msnbc.html
Researchers find DNA contamination in COVID-19 mRNA injections exceeding regulatory limits by over 300%, confirming findings from earlier studies. https://petermcculloughmd.substack.com/p/breaking-new-study-urges-immediate