Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Debt Cycle Crisis

 Preparing For The Worst,


  John Mauldin, The Final Crisis: This is Our Future
​ I’ve been reviewing Ray Dalio’s latest book, How Countries Go Broke. He shows in exhaustive detail how our current party is quickly approaching its lights-out moment.​.. Ray’s historical research found a specific sequence of events usually defined the cycle-ending crisis.​..
..I want to review a critical distinction Ray found in his research. Debt crises unfold differently depending whether the monetary system is based on hard money or fiat money.
​  Note that a “hard” currency in this sense doesn’t have to be gold, silver, etc. It can be a government-issued currency that’s pegged to some other currency the issuing government can’t control. This lack of control is the key.
​  Here’s Ray:  
​ “In brief, the way the hard currency cases work is that the governments have made promises to deliver money that they can’t print (e.g., gold, silver, or another currency that the parties view as relatively hard, like the dollar). Throughout history, when coming up with these hard currencies that they can’t print to pay debts becomes tough, the governments almost always renege on their promises to pay in the currency that they can’t print, and the value of their money and the debt payments denominated in it tumble at the moment the promise is broken.
​  “After governments break their promise by not going back to having a hard currency, they have what is called a fiat monetary system. In these cases, the currency’s value is based on the faith and incentives that the central banks provide. The most recent shift of most currencies from being hard to being fiat started on August 15, 1971. I remember it well because I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the time and was surprised by it; then I studied history and found that the exact same thing happened in April 1933, and I learned how they worked.
​  “In fiat monetary systems, central banks primarily use interest rates, their ability to monetize debt, and the tightness of money to provide the incentives for lender-creditors to lend and hold debt assets. And throughout history they, like central governments and central bankers operating in hard currency regimes, have created too much debt (which are claims that people believe they can turn in to get money, which they expect they can use to buy things), so there are the same types of debt/credit dynamics at work
​  “Big Debt Cycles through history have typically included currency regimes going back and forth between being hard and fiat because they each led to extreme consequences and required movements to the opposite—the hard currency regimes broke down with big devaluations because the governments couldn’t maintain debt growth in line with their monetary constraints, and the fiat monetary systems broke down because of the loss of faith in the debt/money being a safe storehold him of wealth.”
​  One critical point here: debt cycles happen even if you have a hard currency. They look somewhat different but still occur. This is because both regimes consist of humans who demand and extend unwise amounts of credit. 
​  The Big Debt Cycles Ray Dalio describes generally last around 80 years. They are composed of smaller cycles which average around six years. The US has seen 12 of these short-term cycles since 1945 (80 years ago). We are presently almost six years into the short-term cycle that began in 2020. These timespans can vary a bit, but it certainly appears we are approaching the end of a short-term cycle which will likely also conclude a Big Debt Cycle.​   In my view, it is not coincidence other cycles are similarly approaching critical phases: Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning, George Friedman’s institutional and social cycles, and Peter Turchin’s “elite overproduction” theory...
..Ray Dalio says the current short-term debt cycle revolves around the monetization of government deficits. The shortfalls were already giant before the pandemic. The policies governments developed to handle that problem made the debt problem far worse...
..The Fed’s 2022-2023 rates hikes seemed aggressive mainly because they followed (belatedly) a period of unprecedented debt stimulus. It didn’t so much “tighten” policy as simply bring it back closer to normal. But it didn’t feel that way those who had been feasting on debt...
​..Dalio’s archetypical “Final Crisis” has nine stages. He notes there can be big variations in what happens and when it happens.​..
​  ..This is our future:
“1. The private sector and government get deep in debt.
​  “2. The private sector suffers a debt crisis, and the central government gets deeper in debt to help the private sector.
“3. The central government experiences a debt squeeze in which the free-market demand for its debt falls short of the supply of it. That creates a debt problem... Big net selling of the debt is the big red flag.
“4. The selling of government debt leads to a simultaneous a) free-market-driven tightening of money and credit, which leads to b) a weakening of the economy, c) declining reserves, and d) downward pressure on the currency.​..
“5. When there is a debt crisis and interest rates can’t be lowered (e.g., they hit 0% or long rates limit the decline of short rates), the central bank “prints” (creates) money and buys bonds to try to keep long rates down and to ease credit to make it easier to service debt. It doesn’t literally print money; it essentially borrows reserves from commercial banks that it pays a very short-term interest rate on. This creates problems for the central bank...
​*“6. If the selling continues and interest rates continue to rise, the central bank loses money because the interest rate that it has to pay on its liabilities is greater than the interest rate it receives on the debt assets it bought. When that happens, that is notable but not a big red flag until the central bank has a significant negative net worth and is forced to print more money to cover the negative cash flow..​. The central bank can’t make its debt service payments, though it doesn’t default on its debts because it prints money. When done in large amounts, that devalues the money and creates inflationary recessions or depressions.
“7. Debts are restructured and devalued. When managed in the best possible way, the government controllers of fiscal and monetary policy execute what I call a “beautiful deleveraging,” in which the deflationary ways of reducing debt burdens (e.g., through debt restructurings) are balanced with the inflationary ways of reducing debt burdens (e.g., by monetizing them)...
“8. At such times, extraordinary policies like extraordinary taxes and capital controls are commonly imposed. (Read this twice! - JM)
“9. The deleveraging process inevitably reduces the debt burdens and creates the return to equilibrium. One way or another, the debt and debt service levels are brought back in line with the incomes that exist to service the debts. Quite often, there are inflationary depressions, so the debt is devalued at the end of the cycle, government reserves are raised through asset sales, and a strictly enforced transition from a rapidly declining currency to a relatively stable currency is simultaneously achieved by the central bank linking the currency to a hard currency or a hard asset (e.g., gold)​...
​..“At the early stage of this phase, it is imperative that the rewards of holding the currency and the debt denominated in it, and the penalties of owing money, are great in order to re-establish the creditability of the money and credit by rewarding the lender-creditors and penalizing the borrower-debtors. In this phase of the cycle, there is very tight money and a very high real interest rate, which is very painful but required for a while.​..
​..Our current situation, as I see it:
Stages 1, 2, 3 and 4 have already happened.
​  Stage 5 is underway as the Fed tries to see how low it can push rates without raising inflation, while Congress and the President seek ways to salvage politically popular spending programs and tax policies.
​  Stage 7 may be starting as some of the riskiest private borrowers (First Brands, Tricolor) start hitting the wall.
Stages 6, 8 and 9 are still over the horizon.  
[​Q: Uh, how are we not in the first half of Stage 6?]
​  If I’m right, we still have some time to prepare, but it’s running out. Dalio holds out hope this could end in one of his “Beautiful Deleveraging” scenarios.​   
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-final-crisis-this-is-our-future

After Reported "Shouting Match", Zelensky & Trump Agree Battlelines Should Be Frozen Before Final Peace Can Be Brokered​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-trump-agree-battlelines-should-be-frozen-final-peace-can-be-brokered

If a substantive agreement between Russia and the US is signed... 'Orban's triumph, Europe's humiliation': EU shocked by Putin-Trump meeting​   https://en.topcor.ru/65171-triumf-orbana-unizhenie-evropy-es-shokirovan-vstrechej-putin-tramp-the-telegraph.html

​  Gilbert Doctorow, says these shows say what Putin can't politely say: Does the Vladimir Solovyov talk show speak for President Putin?
  Last night’s news in The Financial Times, backed up by coverage in this morning’s BBC provides irrefutable evidence that Mr. Solovyov’s program is backed by the Putin government not only as a safety valve for Opposition criticism but at times as an unofficial channel for setting out the strident nationalist positions that the President himself will not say publicly.
​  “Trump urged Zelensky to accept Putin’s terms or ‘be destroyed.’ This article in the FT explains in detail how in their closed-door meeting in the White House President Trump raged at Zelensky, insisting that his country’s survival depends on submitting to Vladimir Putin’s terms for peace, beginning with the surrender of all of the Donbas, including the territory not yet overrun by Russian troops.​   https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/10/20/does-the-vladimir-solovyov-talk-show-speak-for-president-putin/

J​ohn Helmer, TPP STANDS FOR TRUMP-PUTIN PEACE AND THE PROOF OF THE PUDDING –ANTICIPATING THE MENU AT THE BUDAPEST SUMMIT
​  Sources in Moscow in a position to know believe that President Vladimir Putin convinced President Donald Trump on the telephone last week of three things. The first is that they can strike terms for a settlement of the Ukraine war by the time they meet in Budapest. The second is that Budapest can be a peace agreement for which Putin will nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. The third is that if Trump won’t agree on terms and escalates with more weapons, more Americans on the ground, and more sanctions,  he will lose the war, lose the lives of the Americans, and be forced into his very own Saigon 1975 and Kabul 2021 – that’s to say, MALA, Make America Lose Again.
​  “It’s going to happen now,” the Russian sources say. When Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a few days’ time, the sources expect “there will be a deal from the Russian side.”
​  The catch, they also say, is that Putin can make his deal concessions so attractive that Trump is bound to agree, but at least three of his decision-makers may not. The Russian sources believe they are Vice President JD VanceCentral Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe, and White House advisor Stephen Miller.​   
https://johnhelmer.net/tpp-stands-for-trump-putin-peace-and-the-proof-of-the-pudding-anticipating-the-menu-at-the-budapest-summit/#more-92601

​  Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant repairs begin in Ukraine as ceasefire zones set
The plant’s last external lines were severed in September in attacks that Russia and Ukraine blame on each other.​   
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/18/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-repairs-begin-in-ukraine-as-ceasefire-zones-set?traffic_source=rss

Trump says he’ll think about Kremlin’s Russia-Alaska tunnel pitch​    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/musk-trump-putin-tunnel-russia-alaska.html

​  Ian Welsh, China Seizes The Master’s Weapon As It Makes Itself The New Hegemon
​ US sanctions on Iraq in the 90s under Billy Clinton killed at least hundreds of thousands of people. I once talked to an Iraqi oncological pediatrician from the 90s and her incandescent rage over all the children who died of cancer she couldn’t save because of American sanctions was so hot it blotted out the sun.
​  Once such sanctions had been rare (though there are cases back in the 50s.) The most notable is the multi-generation trade blockade of Cuba.
But from Clinton on use of these sanctions became routine, “Treasury’s Wars.” Millions died, many more were impoverished.
​  So, China has learned from the evil master. And it has decided that if there is such a weapon, it will have it and  use it and no one else can have it.
Everyone who rages against this is correct. No country should have this power. Not America. Not China. No one.​   
https://www.ianwelsh.net/china-seizes-the-masters-weapon-as-it-makes-itself-the-new-hegemon/

  I​n a modest beginning: U.S. MISSILE FACTORIES GOING INTO OVERDRIVE 
U.S. defense officials aren’t guessing... they’re gearing up. Production lines are doubling output on Tomahawks, SM-6s, and other precision weapons as Pentagon planners brace for a missile-heavy conflict in the Pacific. China’s expanding arsenal now includes hypersonics that can reach the U.S. mainland, with newer models pushing further and faster than ever. Washington’s worry? In a real fight, America runs out of missiles first.​   https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1979230940237853030

​They would have to be bad; then worse after that... The First 48 Hours of a War With China ‘Could Be Ugly’   https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-first-48-hours-of-a-war-with-china-could-be-ugly/

​   Caitlin Johnstone​,  Israel Flipped Out And Killed 45 Palestinians After Running Over Their Own Bomb
​ In today’s news, Israel’s stupid fucking genocidal rapists ran over an unexploded ordnance from their own evil carpet bombing campaign, blamed Hamas for the explosion, started bombing the fuck out of Gaza again, killed scores of civilians, said they were once again cutting off aid to the enclave, and then quietly backed down on urging from Washington.
​  Rather than report that Israel violated the ceasefire agreement as blatantly as any agreement could possibly be violated, the western press have been referring to this as a “test” of the ceasefire.​   
https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/israel-flipped-out-and-killed-45

​  Israel Launches Wave of Heavy Airstrikes Across Gaza, Killing at Least 45​ - Reports contradict Israel's claim that its troops came under attack in Rafah on Sunday​   https://news.antiwar.com/2025/10/19/israel-launches-wave-of-heavy-airstrikes-across-gaza-killing-at-least-21/

​  Soon after the explosion in Rafah, I’m told by a source familiar, the White House and Pentagon knew that the incident was caused by an Israeli settler bulldozer running over unexploded ordnance — contradicting Netanyahu’s claim that Hamas had popped up from tunnels. After Netanyahu said he was blocking all aid from entering Gaza in response, and unleashed a bombing campaign, the administration conveyed to Israel that they know what happened. Netanyahu then announced he would re-open the crossings in a few hours.​  https://x.com/ryangrim/status/1979973964719124613 

​  Israel reaffirms commitment to ceasefire after launching wave of strikes on Gaza
Hamas allegedly carried out attacks with an RPG and sniper fire against Israeli troops​   
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-gaza-ceasefire-attack-hamas-latest-b2848013.html

Israeli forces kill Palestinian, detonate home, and detain 10 in West Bank raids​   https://en.yenisafak.com/turkiye/israeli-forces-kill-palestinian-detonate-home-and-detain-10-in-west-bank-raids-3709523

Israeli forces fire on Palestinian farmers during olive harvest​   https://en.yenisafak.com/world/israeli-forces-fire-on-palestinian-farmers-during-olive-harvest-3709500

​Mostly "remote learning" ;-(   300,000 Gaza students resume studies amid ongoing aid blockade   https://en.yenisafak.com/world/300000-gaza-students-resume-studies-amid-ongoing-aid-blockade-3709501

​  Palestinian National Council chief calls for deployment of international forces to protect Gazans
Rawhi Fattouh calls Israel’s killing of 11 Palestinians in Gaza a ‘crime’ and demands global action to halt ongoing violations
​  Fattouh also called on the world powers and the US administration to “ensure the ceasefire holds and provide Palestinians with food, shelter, and medical care in line with the principles of justice and human rights.”
​  He said Israel’s justification for targeting the vehicle, claiming it neared the so-called “yellow line,” constitutes “a grave violation of international humanitarian law” and further evidence of Israel’s “disregard for human values and international conventions that prohibit attacks on civilians.”
​  The “yellow line” is an unofficial demarcation separating areas where Israeli forces are stationed from those where Palestinians are allowed to move within the Gaza Strip.​   
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/palestinian-national-council-chief-calls-for-deployment-of-international-forces-to-protect-gazans/3720640

Egypt expected to lead proposed post-war Gaza stabilization force: Diplomats​   https://www.arabnews.com/node/2619358/middle-east

​  Türkiye ready to serve as de facto guarantor if 2-state solution implemented: Foreign minister
'This is a major commitment, one not every state can undertake,' Hakan Fidan says
​  Fidan stressed that Türkiye’s defense and intelligence coordination demonstrates its willingness to accept greater responsibility if peace is achieved.
“If a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders is implemented, and Palestinians gain a sovereign and equal state, we are ready to act as a guarantor,” Fidan said. “This is a major commitment, one not every state can undertake.”​    
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkiye-ready-to-serve-as-de-facto-guarantor-if-2-state-solution-implemented-foreign-minister/3720706

​  Fascinating Background – The CIA Was Misleading Witkoff and Kushner on Key Intelligence About Hamas During Critical Phase of Peace Negotiations
​  A fascinating hour-long interview with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as they outline the backstory to the Israel-Hamas peace agreement in Gaza.
During a segment (prompted below) Witkoff and Kushner are outlining the step-by-step process as they engaged the leaders of Qatar, Turkey and Egypt.
​  Witkoff reveals how the CIA was briefing them both, multiple times a day, and the briefing itself was exactly the opposite of what Emir of Qatar and Presidents of Turkey and Egypt were telling them.​   
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/10/19/fascinating-background-the-cia-was-misleading-witkoff-and-kushner-on-key-intelligence-about-hamas-during-critical-phase-of-peace-negotiations/

​Illegal Israeli deals  to steal Palestinian gas:  Whitewashing Gas Exploration in Post-Genocide Gaza   https://scheerpost.com/2025/10/18/whitewashing-gas-exploration-in-post-genocide-gaza/

  Who would shoot missiles into a gas tanker taking gas to Yemen?  New Images Show LPG Tanker Severely Damaged After Explosion Off Yemen
Some are reporting that an "American MQ-4C 'Triton' maritime surveillance drone" was patrolling the airspace "prior to the incident."​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lpg-tanker-reportedly-hit-unknown-projectile-yemen

​  Celia Farber, Chaos In Gaza After Internal Battles Between Hamas And Armed "Clans," Lead To Reignited War. USA Says The War Is OVER; Ben Gvir Calls On Netanyahu To "Renew Full Scale Fighting," At "Full Strength."
​  Witkoff, Vance and Kushner Headed For Israel. All of This Was Predictable And Predicted. Nothing Was in Place In Gaza To Support Stability During Early Truce Days​   https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/chaos-in-gaza-after-internal-battles

​  Armed, Israeli-funded "civilian" gang members?  "Direct & Grave Violation" - Ceasefire On Thin Ice As Hamas Kills Gazan Civilians, Israel Retaliates To 'Yellow Line' Threat​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/where-are-protesters-us-warns-hamas-planning-ceasefire-violating-attack-palestinian

​He can keep making it be "not over": Netanyahu says Gaza war not over until Hamas disarms   https://www.arabnews.com/node/2619404/middle-east

​  Israel kills 11 Palestinian family members in Gaza’s deadliest truce breach
Strike on civilian vehicle by Israeli military in Gaza City marks deadliest violation of eight-day ceasefire with Hamas.​  
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/18/israel-kills-11-palestinian-family-members-in-gazas-deadliest-truce-breach

​  Have the Nuremberg Trials Been Forgotten?
Former chief of Israeli military intelligence, Aharon Haliva, called for the reprisal killing of 50 Palestinians for every one Israeli.​   
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/have-the-nuremberg-trials-been-forgotten

  A guy operating an earth mover to do repairs: 1 killed in Israeli airstrike on vehicle in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire​ - Drone strike hit excavator in Tyre district of southern Lebanon, says local media​   https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/1-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-vehicle-in-southern-lebanon-despite-ceasefire/3720556

​  UN rapporteur says deadly Israel strikes on vehicles in Lebanon could be war crimes
A UN rapporteur says Israel’s deadly strikes on civilian vehicles in Lebanon since last year’s ceasefire could amount to war crimes.​   
https://www.newarab.com/news/israels-deadly-lebanon-strikes-could-be-war-crimes-un

​  Epstein survivor says she was beaten, raped by ‘well-known PM’, referring to Israel’s Ehud Barak
​  “After the attack, I couldn’t stay a fool. Having been treated so brutally and then seeing Epstein’s callous reaction to how terrorized I felt, I had to accept that Epstein meted out praise merely as a manipulation to keep me subservient,” she wrote. “Epstein cared only about Epstein.”
​  Giuffre referred to the man as the 'Prime Minister,' fearing retribution if she revealed his identity, although she had previously pointed to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak in court filings as one of the many elites who had raped her, a claim he has repeatedly denied.
​  According to Giuffre, she first encountered the 'Prime Minister' on Epstein’s private island when she was 18 years old in 2002, where he subjected her to violent and terrifying acts.
​  She described how he repeatedly choked her to the point of losing consciousness, inflicting extreme fear and violence upon her, which she detailed in her memoir.
​  The politician “raped me more savagely than anyone had before,” Giuffre said, adding that she immediately went to Epstein to beg him not to send her back to the prime minister.
​  But Epstein showed indifference, stating, “You’ll get that sometimes,” when confronted with the politician's brutality.​   
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/10/19/757203/Israel-Virginia-Roberts-Giuffre-Jeffrey-Epstein-victim-beaten-rape-Israel-prime-minister-Ehud-Barak-

Trump Accused of Unlawful Assaults at the Caribbean: 108 U.S. Organizations Demand Accountability​   https://www.telesurenglish.net/trump-accused-of-unlawful-assaults-at-the-caribbean-108-u-s-organizations-demand-accountability/

​Coming in hot for a mock attack: U.S. B-52 and F-35Bs Conduct Joint Strike Demo Near Venezuela to Signal Defense Commitment.   https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2025/u-s-b-52-and-f-35bs-conduct-joint-strike-demo-near-venezuela-to-signal-defense-commitment#google_vignette

Trump deploys secretive ‘Night Stalkers’ regiment as Venezuela mobilizes MILLIONS of troops raising fears of all-out war​   https://endtimeheadlines.org/2025/10/trump-deploys-secretive-night-stalkers-regiment-as-venezuela-mobilizes-millions-of-troops-raising-fears-of-all-out-war/

Democrats block bill to pay US troops during gov’t shutdown​   https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/10/video-democrats-block-bill-to-pay-us-troops-during-govt-shutdown/

​They mention Thanksgiving in passing: When could the shutdown end? 5 key dates to watch​   https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5561093-shutdown-end-dates-to-watch/

Amazon Web Services, AWS Identifies Root Cause Of Widespread Internet Outage Affecting US-East Services​   https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/internet-outage-sparked-operational-issues-amazon-aws-data-centers-northern-virginia

​  C​athering Austin Fitts advocates physical gold in-hand, vegetablegardens and safer locations, like semi-rural.  Escaping The 'Digital Concentration Camp'; Gold Fights The 'Financial Control Grid'​   https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/escaping-digital-concentration-camp-gold-fights-financial-control-grid

​  Starving people form opposing teams: Over 50,000 Christians killed in Nigeria by Islamist extremists
According to the report “Martyred Christians in Nigeria” issued by Intersociety, over the past 14 years at least 52,250 Nigerian Christians have been brutally murdered at the hands of Islamist militants.​   https://www.vaticannews.va/en/church/news/2023-04/over-50000-christians-killed-in-nigeria-by-islamist-extremists.html

  ​Peter McCullough MD on something safer and better than statins, Anti-Atherosclerotic Properties of Nattokinase
Widely used product for Spike detoxification has added benefits fighting heart and vascular disease​   http://thefocalpoints.com/p/anti-atherosclerotic-properties-of

​  Something I posted in April 2023, focuses on the third study he mentions:
 Effective management of atherosclerosis progress and hyperlipidemia with nattokinase: A clinical study with 1,062 participants
​  ​Nattokinase (NK), known as a potent fibrinolytic and antithrombotic agent, has been shown to have antiatherosclerotic and lipid-lowering effects. However, data on human clinical studies are limited. In this clinical study involving 1,062 participants, our objective was to examine the efficacy of NK in atherosclerosis and hyperlipidemia and safety at the dose of 10,800 FU/day after 12 months of oral administration. Various factors, including lower doses that influence NK pharmacological actions, were also investigated. 
​  ​We found that NK at a dose of 10,800 FU/day effectively managed the progression of atherosclerosis and hyperlipidemia with a significant improvement in the lipid profile. A significant reduction in the thickness of the carotid artery intima-media and the size of the carotid plaque was observed. The improvement rates ranged from 66.5 to 95.4%. NK was found to be ineffective in lowering lipids and suppressing atherosclerosis progression at a dose of 3,600 FU/day. The lipid-lowering effect of NK was more prominent in subjects who smoked, drank alcohol, and subjects with higher BMI. Regular exercise further improved the effects of NK. Co-administration of vitamin K2 and aspirin with NK produced a synergetic effect. No noticeable adverse effects associated with the use of NK were recorded. 
​  ​In conclusion, our data demonstrate that atherosclerosis progression and hyperlipidemia can be effectively managed with NK at a dose of 10,800 FU/day. The lower dose of 3,600 FU per day is ineffective. The dose of 10,800 FU/day is safe and well tolerated. ​ ​Some lifestyle factors and the coadministration of vitamin K2 and aspirin lead to improved outcomes in the use of NK.  https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.964977/full

Shingles Vaccine Theoretical Efficacy Down to 56% - Enthusiasm Dropping as More Shingles Pop Up in Vaccinated   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/shingles-vaccine-theoretical-efficacy

  This specific human gene mutation reported is linked to cancer. Jessica Rose Ph.DGene mutations reported to VAERS in COVID-19 shot context
More evidence of harms from the DNA-containing N1-modified mRNA COVID shots​   https://jessicar.substack.com/p/epigenetic-gene-mutations-reported

​  The Texas Medical board hassled me for ivermectin treatment, too: Texas Doctor Will Appeal Medical Board’s Reprimand Over Attempt to Provide Ivermectin to COVID Patient
​  Dr. Mary Talley Bowden, an ear, nose and throat specialist, said the Texas Medical Board’s reprimand doesn’t take away her license, so she’s “basically fighting on principle.” She also plans to file two lawsuits alleging the board violated her rights to free speech and due process, and she also plans to work with lawmakers to pass legislation that would prevent hospitals from denying patients’ requests to consult with outside physicians.​   https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/texas-doctor-will-appeal-medical-boards-reprimand-provide-ivermectin-covid-patient/

Canadian Government Has Now Euthanized 90,000 Citizens with ‘Assisted Suicide’ Program​   https://slaynews.com/news/canadian-government-euthanized-90000-citizens-assisted-suicide-program/

​Still Kicking


Sunday, October 19, 2025

Sneaking Out Of World War Three

 Truants,


  Putin and Trump have some plan to wind down the war in Ukraine, which they discussed in Alaska in August. European "leaders", and presumably European banking, did not like it, and aggressively pushed things like NATO country "peacekeeping forces" in Ukraine.Russia wants NATO militaries farther away, not closer to Russia.
  Trump said in September, about 3 weeks ago, that he "would know within a month if he could trust Putin", and has been insulting him and disparaging Russia since then, finally looking like he would supply Ukraine with nuclear-capable tomahawk missiles and Americans to target and launch them, an overt act of war.
  Ukraine, most EU heads of state, and Raytheon ate that up. Much was made of Trump's turn away from peace towards WW-3, and also of Putin's unwise tolerance of Trump's crossing of Russia's red-lines from just last year, with so little public reaction. "Tomahawk missiles would not change the realities on the battlefield", as opposed to "nuclear capable Tomahawk missiles launched from Ukraine into Russia would be an act of war by the US".
  I have wondered if Trump and Putin had enough of a trusting relationship to be able to act in concert without having frequent communications, which would be very hard to keep secret from intelligence agencies, bankers and other "interested parties". Could Putin and Trump have agreed to drag things out,Trump pretending to finally agree with war-hawks up until this sudden shift of a 2 1/2 hour phone call with Putin, while Zelensky was in the air to Washington to be given Tomahawk missiles? 
  Tomahawk missiles would actually have to be treated as nuclear-capable when they entered Russian airspace, wouldn't they? Russia has nuclear doctrines which cover that.
  I have not seen this possibility presented, but it has been rolling around in my mind the whole time. Putin does know that the enemy of Russia is "western" finance, which really needs Russian assets to shore up its balance sheets, which are purportedly in the red, though we can't look.
  Europeans have been strung along with the belief that Trump would "give" Ukraine tomahawks and would launch some into Russia, which would at least ruin things between Trump and Putin, and could be made to spark war between them, the ideal outcome for European financiers and financially failing nations.
  They have been preparing to enter war against Russia in 2028 or 2029, but if the war ends this winter, what can they do to control their citizens, without the Russian threat? They will be entering their financial collapse without an external enemy, so their citizens will focus on fixing the national political economies. They will be ejected as the first step. Banking and finance, such as BlackRock, will be audited in step-2. Losses will be tallied and distributed without special wartime emergency powers. 
  This would be a different "great reset" than the WEF has planned. We can hope for it, but maybe not bet on it.
  So freezing the line of contact seems to be the plan. Zelensky has to accept it, and has openly done so with the usual proviso to freeze then talk. 
  Zelensky calls for ceasefire along current front lines
The Ukrainian leader has said he agrees with US President Donald Trump’s proposal for an immediate truce with RussiaAfter Zelensky meeting,    
https://www.rt.com/russia/626637-zelesnky-ceasefire-front-lines/

Trump calls on Ukraine and Russia to ‘stop where they are’ and end the war   https://www.arabnews.com/node/2619295/world

  Russia has previously said they would freeze when they got all of Novorussia, and if Ukraine would retreat to what Russia claims, then that would work fine.
  Who can negotiate lasting peace? Zelensky doesn't want to, and can't, unless he is re-elected. Any Ukrainian who officially gives up territory to Russia might die very quickly. Whoever is to sign that paper will need protection and probably a new home somewhere else. 
  Russia really wants an official treaty to end the war.
  If the line of contact can be frozen before the end of the year, perhaps in November, as the killing-cold blows in, then it might become the new border. Ukrainians will have to stop fighting, no matter how much they are goaded by European powers, who really can't supply then with arms, absent US supplies, which are already drawn down. 
  Would Russia settle for an incomplete meeting of their goals, absent civil rights for Russian speakers in Ukraine, de-militarization and de-nazification?
I'm not saying that they would settle for modified goals, but a negotiated treate would take WW-3 off the table for European elites and financiers, leaving them to face the consequences of their many bad financial bets with the resources of Europe. 
  I think Russia will demand a negotiated end to the war by treaty. I think they will be willing to sweeten the deal and soften this winter as much as they can for Ukrainians. Who will sign the treaty, the speaker of the Rada, who is constitutionally next, after the now non-existent president?

  Andrew Korybko lays out the history of this war to date, and considerations for ending it in Budapest, though he reasons from the position of nation-states being the deciding entities, rather than financial elites. The Next Putin-Trump Meeting Might Lead To Something Tangible This Time Around   https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-next-putin-trump-meeting-might

  Dima covers the prospects and logistics of the upcoming meeting of Trump and Putin in Budapest, with mapping of the circuitous air route Putin will have to take over Turkey, the Mediterranean, Adriatic, Montinegro and Serbia. No Tomahawks For Ukraine - Pokrovsk Will Fall In The Coming Days - Military Summary For 2025.10.18   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3QWMheLQC8

  The BBC covered the discreet meeting between Trump and Zelensky as well as anybody. Even Zelensky won't say what he and Trump, then he and European leaders discussed, when he finally got out to meet the press:  Zelensky guarded on Tomahawk missile talks with Trump after White House meeting   https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cj6ne4xjg6kt

  Simplicius sees it as all circus, and that Putin cannot budge from strategic objectives: Zelensky Gets the Fig Amid Trump Admin's Whacky Day
​ Again what we see is Trump having likely euchred the world in gaining another extension on his perpetual ‘two-more-weeks’ sham of kicking the ceasefire can down the road. The Tomahoax served as lure to drive another PR moment to re-energize “talks” in order to continue the hoodwink that the peace process is again reaching some turning point or culmination.
​  In reality, no such thing is happening, as the US has proven entirely incapable of so much as even passingly acknowledging Russian security interests necessary for the war’s conclusion. So, what can the newly-proposed Budapest talks possibly achieve?​ ...
..Now, just as in the Alaska meeting ‘coverup’, sources indicate yesterday’s Trump-Zelensky meeting was a total bust...
“One of the sources said the meeting ‘was not easy,’ while the other simply said ‘it was bad.’...
In reality, the sources said, Zelensky pushed hard on Tomahawks but Trump pushed back and showed no flexibility...
..As the political carousel whirls and whirls, the inexorable Russian military machine continues steamrolling ahead.​   https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zelensky-gets-the-fig-amid-trump

Big deals could be in the works: Head Of Russia's Sovereign Wealth Fund Pitches "Putin-Trump" Undersea Tunnel Linking Russia-US   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/head-russias-sovereign-wealth-fund-pitches-putin-trump-undersea-tunnel-linking-russia

  Israel blocks humanitarian aid from entering Gaza despite ceasefire
Thousands of tonnes of supplies remain blocked as UN and civil society organisations demand lifting of bans   
https://www.telesurenglish.net/israel-blocks-humanitarian-aid-from-entering-gaza-despite-ceasefire/

Netanyahu funded Hamas for decades to block 2-state solution:  Israel Not Finished Fighting, Determined to Achieve Elimination of Hamas - Netanyahu   https://sputnikglobe.com/20251016/israel-not-finished-fighting-determined-to-achieve-elimination-of-hamas---netanyahu-1122970851.html

  Caitlin Johnstone, They Said The Massacres Would Stop When The Hostages Were Released. They Haven't Stopped.
  But two years of genocide have made it clear that the Israeli military was never killing Palestinian civilians in order to push for the release of hostages or force Hamas to cave in to their demands. The Israeli military kills Palestinian civilians in order to kill Palestinian civilians. The killing is the goal, and it always has been.   https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/they-said-the-massacres-would-stop

  Offshore natural gas:  The Israeli Scramble for Palestine’s Energy Reserves (Pt. 1)
 As the Second Intifada was about to begin in September 2000, PLO leader Yassir Arafat celebrated a natural gas discovery in a fishing vessel about 30 kilometers off the Gaza Strip. “This will provide a solid foundation for our economy, for establishing an independent state with holy Jerusalem as its capital,” Arafat said.   https://israelpalestinenews.org/the-israeli-scramble-for-palestines-energy-reserves-pt-1/

Palestinian bodies returned by Israel show signs of torture; Israel continues killing Gazans – “Ceasefire” Day 6   https://israelpalestinenews.org/palestinian-bodies-returned-by-israel-show-signs-of-torture-israel-continues-killing-gazans-ceasefire-day-6/

  Israel’s exploding robots still terrorise Gaza neighbourhoods
Israeli forces have erased entire Gaza neighbourhoods by deploying remotely controlled explosives.   
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/10/16/israels-exploding-robots-still-terrorise-gaza-neighbourhoods

Over 9,000 Palestinians remain in Israeli captivity following exchange deal   https://israelpalestinenews.org/9000-prisoners-left/

  Doghmush Clan & others: From Drug Lords to Death Squads: Israel’s Gaza War Continues through Collaborator Gangs
Israel’s latest tactic relies on arming criminal gangs and former security agents to carry out assassinations and terrorize civilians, continuing its war on Gaza by other means.   https://israelpalestinenews.org/from-drug-lords-to-death-squads-israels-gaza-war-continues-through-collaborator-gangs/

Türkiye ready to join multinational Gaza force, defense minister says   https://en.yenisafak.com/turkiye/turkiye-ready-to-join-multinational-gaza-force-defense-minister-says-3709410

  Natural gas revenues and not actual peace would help: Palestinian government unveils $67 billion, five-year plan for Gaza reconstruction
Gaza ceasefire agreement reached between Israel, Hamas last week, based on plan presented   https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/palestinian-government-unveils-67-billion-five-year-plan-for-gaza-reconstruction/3719045

  1 killed, 7 injured as Israeli warplanes launch 12 airstrikes in Lebanon despite ceasefire
Lebanon will gradually increase number of troops deployed south of Litani River to 10,000 by end of 2025, president says   
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/1-killed-7-injured-as-israeli-warplanes-launch-12-airstrikes-in-lebanon-despite-ceasefire/3719095

  Fears in Lebanon of Israeli Plan to Empty and Strangle the South Economically
 Intensified Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon late Thursday have heightened fears that Tel Aviv is enforcing a “systematic policy to economically strangle the south and prevent life from returning,” after expanding its bombardment to include civilian and industrial facilities used in reconstruction efforts.  https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5198576-fears-lebanon-israeli-plan-empty-and-strangle-south-economically

   What planet did I wake up on today?  Senate Candidate Returns AIPAC Money As Pro-Israel Group Becomes Political Poison
  “In recent years, AIPAC has aligned itself too closely with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government," said Massachusetts Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton on Thursday, one day after announcing he was launching a primary challenge against incumbent Dem Senator Edward Markey.
  "I’m a friend of Israel, but not of its current government, and AIPAC’s mission today is to back that government...I don’t support that direction. That’s why I’ve decided to return the donations I’ve received and will not be accepting their support.”
  Moulton will refund $35,000 that he's received from AIPAC.   
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/senate-candidate-returns-aipac-money-pro-israel-group-becomes-political-poison

Looted by US-backed Kurds & sold to Israel through Turkey for a decade: Russia pledges to develop Syrian oil fields in expanded cooperation   https://en.yenisafak.com/world/russia-pledges-to-develop-syrian-oil-fields-in-expanded-cooperation-3709409

Netanyahu returns to court over corruption charges after Trump calls for his pardon   https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/10/15/756943/Palestine-Israel-Netanyahu-court-hearing-corruption-charges-criminal-trial-resumed-Trump-urge-pardon

​  Palestinian Leaders. Stll Waiting for Marwan Barghouti. Mohammed Shtayyeh is “Appointed to Rubberstamp”. “Reconstruction without Sovereignty”
Palestine’s Most Legitimate Leaders Are Imprisoned, Assassinated, or Disqualified​   
https://www.globalresearch.ca/waiting-marwan-barghouti/5903062

  Mike Shedlock, US Masses 10,000 Troops Near Venezuela, A Top Admiral Resigns
The New York Times reports Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command Is Stepping Down
  The officer, Adm. Alvin Holsey, is leaving his job as head of the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees all operations in Central and South America, even as the Pentagon has rapidly built up some 10,000 forces in the region in what it says is a major counterdrug and counterterrorism mission.
  It was unclear why Admiral Holsey is suddenly departing, less than a year into what is typically a three-year job, and in the midst of the biggest operation in his 37-year career. But one current and one former U.S. official, both of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss personnel matters, said that Admiral Holsey had raised concerns about the mission and the attacks on the alleged drug boats.
  “Prior to Trump, I can’t think of a combatant commander who left his or her post early, ever,” said Representative Adam Smith of Washington, the senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-masses-10000-troops-near-venezuela-top-admiral-resigns

  Head of US command overseeing Trump ‘drug boat’ strikes steps down after expressing concern with the attacks: report
‘Serving as your commander and deputy for the past 34 months has been a tremendous honor,’ Admiral Alvin Holsey said   
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/alvin-holsey-retires-trump-drug-boat-strikes-b2846974.html

Mexico Calls for Respect of Venezuela’s Sovereignty Amid U.S. Threats   https://www.telesurenglish.net/mexico-calls-for-respect-of-venezuelas-sovereignty-amid-u-s-threats/

Trump’s Plan to Invade Venezuela and Abduct “Narcoterrorist” Maduro. Kurt Nimmo​,  First published August 21, 2025​   https://www.globalresearch.ca/trump-plan-invade-venezuela-abduct-narcoterrorist-maduro/5898569

  Bush-Clinton-CIA Cocaine Funded Iran-Contra: The Irony Of Trump's New 'War On Drugs': Recalling The History Of CIA Narco Trafficking
  For those who are aware of the CIA's 20th century decades-long legacy in Latin America, the idea that the United States government and its intelligence agencies are fundamentally and on principle stand against drug trafficking is laughable.
  There was a time, not too far back in history, where the CIA itself was the biggest narco-trafficker in United States and perhaps the entire Western hemisphere (if not the world). This was to fund regime change and covert operations in Latin America after a belated Congressional crackdown on taxpayer funding for black ops.   
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/irony-trumps-new-war-drugs-recalling-history-cia-narco-trafficking

Gently extending the new Chinese Empire: 12 Years Of Data Prove China's Belt & Road Initiative Is A Debt Trap​   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-years-data-prove-chinas-belt-road-initiative-debt-trap

  'Camus' writes on X that in a stark analysis, journalist Whitney Webb dissects the fundamental mechanism of control being rolled out globally: the desperate need for our consent.
  The entire digital architecture - from government-backed CBDCs and stablecoins to the linchpin of Digital ID - is designed to fail without one crucial element: a captive user base. They cannot build the digital prison if no one enters voluntarily.
  Their strategy, Webb warns, is a classic “carrot and stick.”
The allure of convenience and financial incentives is the “carrot” used to lure the masses in.
  Once dependency is established, “out comes the stick.”
The ultimate goal is to engineer desperation.   
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/engineering-desperation#google_vignette

Wait, we're not ready for the desperation yet!  SNAP and EBT Programs to be "Paused" Starting November 1   https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/snap-and-ebt-programs-to-be-paused-starting-november-1

  oops... How the Military Exposed the Tools That Let Authorities Break Into Phones
The Marine Corps is trying to close a no-bid contract with Cellebrite, a company that helps police get into locked phones. The specs weren’t supposed to be public.   https://reason.com/2025/10/16/how-the-military-exposed-the-tools-that-let-authorities-break-into-phones/?nab=1

Greg Abbot likes to grandstand as a tough guy: Texas Governor To Deploy National Guard To Austin's 'No Kings' Protest   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/texas-governor-deploy-national-guard-austins-no-kings-protest

  Completely peaceful, lotsa oldsters: Jenny went in her Palestine flag t-shirt. Live Updates from Austin on nationwide ‘No Kings’ protest against Trump   https://thedailytexan.com/2025/10/18/178986/

  Extensive, large, layered and completely missed fraud:  The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week's Regional Bank Meltdown
 In short: unprecedented chaos... but it wasn't just a busted bankruptcy and potential fraud on behalf of a shady investor groupIt was also a bizarre absolute priority rule waterfall shitshow, in which nobody knew whose claims were subordinated or priority, and the result was a free-for-call collateral grab which was not quite rehypothecation, but was very close, and the result is that the secured lenders - Zions and Western Alliance - have now ended up chasing the assets pledged to their loans in court as the assets are, as the South Park cartoon puts it so well, gone... all gone.   https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/bizarre-bankruptcy-heart-latest-regional-bank-meltdown

  (Nothing can be built without Chinese minerals AI Data Centers Build Their Own Power Plants Because the Grid Isn’t Ready
 Data centers have long taken power for granted, said KR Sridhar, founder and chief executive of Bloom Energy (BE) which provides fuel cells to companies that need on-site power, often in a hurry. “You build the data center. Well, you just plug it in.”
  That isn’t possible anymore given the city-sized amounts of electricity needed to train AI models. One data center can devour as much electricity as 1,000 Walmart stores, and an AI search can use 10 times the amount of energy as a google search.
  President Trump in January declared a national energy emergency, in part to keep the U.S. from falling behind China in the AI race. He has issued a series of related executive orders including one that aims to fast-track data-center construction and needed power infrastructure.   
https://mishtalk.com/economics/ai-data-centers-build-their-own-power-plants-because-the-grid-isnt-ready/

No kamikaze drones yet:  Miami Is Testing a Self-Driving Police Car That Can Launch Drones - Meet the new surveillance state trooper!   https://www.thedrive.com/news/miami-is-testing-a-self-driving-police-car-that-can-launch-drones

Cells from aborted fetuses don't count as "religious". States trump parents: Supreme Court Won't Exempt California Schoolchild From Vaccination Mandate   https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/supreme-court-wont-exempt-california-schoolchild-vaccination-mandate

   I advised every pregnant patient against these shots.  Pierre Kory MD, Covid Scientific Misconduct Rages On At The World's Top Medical Journals
JAMA just published a study in order to bury a severely disturbing truth - that Covid vaccine policy victimized pregnant women by killing an untold number of their babies.   https://pierrekorymedicalmusings.com/p/covid-scientific-misconduct-rages

  Peter McCullough MD notes that many measles cases are actually in the fully vaccinated.  CDC Likely Concealing Measles Vaccine Failure
Agency lumps "unvaccinated" with "vaccine status unknown" in deceptive reporting   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/cdc-likely-concealing-measles-vaccine

  Stop eating! Tests Find High Levels Of Lead In Protein Powders, Shakes: Consumer Reports
Twenty-two of 23 products tested by CR had detectable amounts of lead, and more than two-thirds had unsafe levels of lead, according to the organization.   https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/tests-find-high-levels-lead-protein-powders-shakes-consumer-reports

  Protein Powders and Shakes Contain High Amounts of Lead, New Report Says – A Pharmacologist Explains the Data                                                      By C. Michael White, Distinguished Professor of Pharmacy Practice, University of Connecticut. Originally published at The Conversation
 The new study assessed 23 powder and ready-to-drink protein products from popular brands by sending three samples of each product to an independent commercial laboratory.
  Consumer Reports considered anything over 0.5 micrograms per day from any single source to be above recommended maximum lead levels. That number comes from the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, which established recommended maximum levels for a variety of substances that could cause cancer or fetal harm.
  It is significantly more conservative than the safety standard for lead exposure used by the FDA for drugs and supplements. The discrepancy is driven by Consumer Reports’ aspirational goals of very low exposure versus the more realistic but actionable requirements from the FDA.
  According to the FDA, the limit for the amount of lead that a person should consume from any single dietary supplement product is 5 micrograms per day. That number is 10 times higher than the Consumer Report limit...
..Four of the 23 products exceeded 2.2 micrograms, the FDA’s cutoff for the total daily amount of lead children should consume. Two products contained 72% and 88%, respectively, of the total daily amount of lead that the FDA deems safe for pregnant women.
  In addition, Consumer Reports found that two of the 23 products delivered more than what it considers a safe amount of cadmium per serving, and one had more arsenic than was recommended.
  The organization’s safety cutoff for cadmium is 4.1 micrograms per day, and for arsenic it is 7 micrograms per day. These numbers align fairly closely with the FDA’s recommended exposure limit for cadmium and arsenic from a single product. For cadmium, the FDA’s limit is set at 5 micrograms per day for a given dietary supplement product and 15 micrograms per day for arsenic.
  The study found that the source of protein was key: Plant-derived protein products had nine times the lead found in dairy proteins like whey, and twice as much as beef-based protein.   
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/10/protein-powders-and-shakes-contain-high-amounts-of-lead-new-report-says-a-pharmacologist-explains-the-data.html

​This is a more accurate methodology. Nearly 7 In 10 American Adults Meet New Definition Of Obese: Study   https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/nearly-7-10-american-adults-meet-new-definition-obese-study

  Depo Provera was always bad: NEW STUDY: Pfizer’s Birth Control Shot Used by 25% of U.S Women Linked to Disabling Brain Tumors
A massive study of 61 million women finds Depo-Provera increases risk of meningioma by 240% as criminal enterprise Pfizer faces a tsunami of lawsuits.   https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/new-study-pfizers-birth-control-shot

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